Hanshin Tigers 2009 Preview

The second place finish in 2008 was disappointing and a profound shock to Tigers fans. It was also expensive - over 300 different lines of victory goods had to be destroyed. The contractor is suing the Hanshin group as only half the agreed fee has been paid. This made for a rather subdued Osaka and the feeling has continued into the first stage of Mayumi's appointment with no one quite sure what to expect. Certainly, Mayumi has focused on many of the weaknesses of the Okada regime but whilst this is encouraging it does not indicate how the team will perform under him. One encouraging sign is that he is taking steps to look at areas which Okada neglected (Fujimoto's batting for example).

Batting Lineup

The probable line up is as follows

1. Akahoshi
2. Sekimoto
3. Toritani
4. Kanemoto
5. Arai
6. Mench
7. Yano/Lin
8. Yano/Fujimoto/Hirano

This is the lineup that has been mooted most as Mayumi's preferred option but has several question marks attached to it. The clean up positions are fixed - Mayumi does want to move Arai to fifth where he thinks that batting behind Kanemoto will improve chances. Originally, Arai wanted to bat five anyway. He had a good season in 2008 at three until his injury and sitting out the WBC is the right choice for him. Toritani after a career year will start at three. Mench is intended to start at six and field right. How he turns out is one of the question marks - Tigers haven't shown much ability to pick good MLB players in recent years (incidently, it is likely that Andy Sheets will become a scout for Tigers). Mench is also having to adjust to a very different style of baseball and learn a whole new range of signals. Kanemoto of course is the key player but last season was rather exposed and needed further knee surgery by the end of it. He has recovered from this nicely and one hopes he can make his usual contribution. Arai is also fully recovered from his stress fracture and swinging well in practice. He is also being tried out at third base in practice games though he was rather error prone when he played in this position for the Carp. Both these players when fully fit form one of the most dangerous combinations in Japanese baseball.

A hope must be that Toritani continues to play to his potential. A run of similar years would help maintain Tigers position in A class. His defensive skills have improved and he is probably the best shortstop in Japan at the moment. As I mentioned Mayumi has put a lot of effort into improving Fujimoto and clearly wants to use him as a regular. How this pans out will be one of the interesting aspects of the season. Fujimoto will have to compete with Sekimoto and Hirano to some extent both of whom are more versatile players and better hitters. Lin is another question mark - will he rediscover his batting of old?

Sekimoto should be a regular starter behind Akahoshi - he is a lot more confident now and he should make a very useful contribution. Akahoshi has been told to try and steal more and this is an encouraging sign. One of Tigers biggest problems last season was speed round the bases but the moving of Wada (Third base coach) to batting is likely to remove that block. Wada incidently is now a batting coach and seems to be settling into that role very nicely. Players have also been practising base running and speed drills so a faster Tigers is more likely.

Of the other players Mayumi wants a bigger role for Katsuragi and if Mench fails we could see more of him. Imaoka is not figuring as a starting player at the moment but an improvement in form could change that. Sakurai is struggling and Mayumi has also been working with him to improve his batting. We can expect to see more of Baldris who should be even better this year and Takahashi and Hiyama (though both would be mainly pinch hitters). Hiyama has settled into the pinch hitting role so nicely that he actually received a pay rise for this season. Mayumi has been persisting with Saka but of more interest are Uemoto and Yamato who are possibles for the first team. Uemoto is doing very well in training, hitting, running and stealing. One hopes that Mayumi has an enlightened attitude to giving players chances to make the first team unlike Okada and the traditional view.

Pitching Lineup

Tigers have several young exciting pitchers on the verge of becoming a good rotation. Uezono (Rookie of the Year 2007), Iwata (WBC squad) and Ishikawa are all exciting young prospects who need pitching time. Adding in Kojima would produce a mainly young rotation. All these younger pitchers also have the ability to go deep (particularly Iwata) which is something Tigers have lacked in recent years. Of the established pitchers, Andoh is the stand out. He has been improving gradually and has turned into a very nice versatile pitcher with an awesome inside pitch. He is now Tigers ace and hopefully he will do well this year. He can go deep but mustn't be over-pitched.

Tigers have also added two pitchers from other sources. Kubo has come from Lotte in a trade for the ineffective Hashimoto and even if the former struggles, one can't help feeling that Tigers have got the better of the deal. The other pitcher is a free agent signing Cheng of Taiwan. He is a very talented pitcher who has turned down MLB offers to pitch for the Tigers.

Shimoyanagi returns again this year, once again questions have to be raised about his age and how long he can continue. He is also recovering from knee surgery and there must be a question mark over his continuing ability to perform. He pitched more innings in 2008 than any other year of his career and by the end of the season was getting tired. Kanemura is another pitcher one has to ask questions about - his pitching in 2008 was poor though Pacific League pitchers who move to the Central League generally take a season to adjust to the more difficult conditions. One hopes he can find his feet this year.

Mayumi also wants to convert Kubota into a starter so this is probably the last year for the famous JFK relief team. Kubota is sidelined with an arthritic shoulder at the moment and is unlikely to start the season. He has thrown one game as a starter and was quite acceptable so he has the potential. Amazingly, Tigers still want to persist with Sugiyama and Nohmi. Mayumi feels that something can be made of both pitchers but Kubo (pitching coach) didn't manage it in the past and it is hard to see how he can do it this time. This is a pity for Nohmi who has genuine talent but one thinks that they should just give up on Sugiyama who seems to have lost whatever ability he did have. Finally there is Fukuhara who pitched well last season until he broke his finger. He is recovered but how he will pitch is difficult to say.

The relief is once again looking very exciting. Williams had a bad year in 2008 and has struggled so far in Spring training but should be ready by the beginning of the season. He is backed up by the superlative Atchison, Watanabe, Egusa and Abe in middle relief. All of these pitchers are of very high potential and give Tigers a depth that will be most useful. Add in Tsutsui and Resop and Tigers have a good range to choose from. Resop in particular is very quick (158 kph) and should prove very useful now that he isn't being used as a starter. Tigers main closer of course is Fujikawa who is at the top of his game and the best closer in Japan. What is encouraging is that the relief pitching has considerable depth now and this is something that Okada has to be commended for developing.

Catching

Here is another question mark. Yano was poor in 2008, throwing out of hand was dreadful, he didn't hit as much and ambled round the bases (even though he still has the speed). His decision making was also questionable and he is getting old. Tigers need to develop a new catcher but have been dragging their feet over this issue. Noguchi as second catcher did start a lot more games but rapidly showed himself to be out of his depth and Tigers were rather glad when he declared free agency and went to BayStars. Neither of the younger catchers, Kanoh or Komiyama got much playing time and given that Tigers have not drafted in a catcher from outside this needs to happen more in this season.

Yano should bounce back - he has been encouraged to improve his base running but a replacement is becoming a matter of urgency. Both Kanoh and Komiyama should get more playing time to give them the experience.

Trades and free agencies

Tigers lost Noguchi to BayStars when the latter declared free agency. This wasn't really felt to be any great loss at all and Tigers were rather glad he went. However, the big failure was the inability to secure Miura (BayStars). Both sides were serious about exploring the options but Miura decided that his heart was with the BayStars and so declined the move. Whether this was a lucky escape, time will tell as some commentators think that Miura only has one more good year in him. However, he would have been a very good addition to the Tigers starting rotation and having him would have removed a 'Tigers Killer' from consideration.

A lot of trades were talked about but none came to fruition. There was a serious offer of Micheal for Imaoka but Tigers didn't bite. With the failure of the Miura bid a lot of catcher trades were explored with talk of Sugiyama or Kubota being offered but nothing came of these.


Postive developments

Certain moves have happened which have helped the Tigers chances. Uehara has gone to the major league as has Kawakami. Both these pitchers had good records against the Tigers. Furthermore, Tyronne Woods, Fujikawa's nemisis will not be returning this season.

Mayumi

Where will Tigers finish? This is difficult as Mayumi is an unknown quantity. He will be finding his feet both as Tigers kantoku and as a kantoku in general. The last two coaches, Hoshino and Okada both delivered a fourth place finish in their first year. Mayumi has started well and has shown an awareness of what needs to be done but whether he can actually transfer this to tactical awareness on the field remains open to question. They have added more strenghth in pitching but will start the season with a young rotation. Realistically, I don't think that the Tigers can expect more than a third place finish but given that the Dragons are significantly weaker it is possible.

[Edited to include the implications resulting from the signing of Cheng and trade of Hashimoto for Kubo: Christopher on Mar 7, 2009 6:30 PM]

Nice report. From reading your report. Hanshin is looking solid. They have good depth. I think they will be somewhere at the top of the table together with Giants. I think we can expect more home runs from Arai from the 5th spot. Hanshin should be expecting at least 20 home runs from him. Yano due to his age is probably the biggest question mark on the line up as I see it. Would like to see Baldris with an improved bat at 3rd though.

I saw on youtube "Moukou Camp Report" that there are talks about moving Egusa as a starter too. But these are just rumours which the so-called experts were talking about. This guy and your blog keeps me updated on Hanshin in Europe.

http://www.youtube.com/user/rmpp7

Egusa?? I hadn't heard that one at all. He pitched in the game before Mayumi's first victory but only in relief. He's never started for Tigers so I would be surprised.

Ideally, I'd like to see Lin have a healthy and productive year and move up to 3rd. I say ideally because he has never had a fully healthy year as a starter. But if Toritani can hit as well as last year it's not a bad line-up at all. Would also love to see Sekimoto continue his strong performance from last year. A good bunter who can also hit for average and sometimes power is a great guy to have at #2. Overall, I'm making no predictions about this year. I'm still heartbroken over last year, so will just sit back and see what happens!

We also need to factor in the addition of Kubo to the pitching line up. This is definitely a good trade for Tigers as he is a more valuable pitcher than Hashimoto. I would like to see Sekimoto hit more, someone who knocks in 50 RBIs should not be bunting as much as he did. Mayumi has also signalled an enhanced role for Katsuragi which will be interesting.

Katsuragi produced when given playing time, so it was puzzling as to why he wasn't in the lineup more.

Katsuragi platooned with Takahashi and then had to compete with Arai for first. Okada didn't seem willing to commit himself to one particular batter even though Takahashi was more suited for the pinch hitter role. Katsuragi did also play right field but once again sharing the role. This season the right field option isn't going to be available but with Arai moving to third (as seems very likely) Katsuragi should get more playing time.

Is Kubota still projected as a starter? Remember hearing something about that last year...

Yes he is but his current shoulder and arm troubles mean that he will miss opening day. However, this is not such a loss at the moment with the signings of Cheng and Kubo.