June 1st Standridge v Rasner - Tigers batting fails

Toritani returned to the top team but as lead off batter. This has to be one of the strangest decisions taken by Mayumi and his team this season. Toritani is driving in runs quite successfully - putting him as leadoff reduces the chances of this happening. Murton moved back to centre field so that Katsuragi could come in at left and Mayumi could have his right-left-right lineup at the bottom of the order which incidentally still has to show that it works. Putting Hirano at lead off and Shunsuke Fujikawa at second with Toritani at seventh would have been a far better arrangement. However, Tigers batting was terrible - lazy and ill-considered with almost no one showing any application. They faced one of the worst pitchers in the Pacific League this season and managed to generate only two hits off him. Admittedly one of these was a Kanemoto home run but when your opponent has only 1 win and 7 losses and an ERA of over six going into the game you do expect more than two hits and no walks. It is not that Rasner got better but rather that Tigers didn't play well. Maybe they don't like their accommodation. The positives - Kanemoto's home run but unfortunately a solo. Standridge also pitched well but tired in the sixth but that's all. Ironically, the game against Rasner last year had the same final score. Once again I was reminded of the Jim Allen article on using your star closer in a tied game in the ninth as Mayumi went with Watanabe who lost the game. Scores

               1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9  R H E
Tigers         0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0  2 5 0
Golden Eagles  0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1x 3 9 0

Starting lineups

Tigers
1. Toritani (Short)
2. Hirano (Second)
3. Murton (Centre)
4. Kanemoto (DH)
5. Arai (Third)
6. Brazell (First)
7. Johjima (Catcher)
8. Katsuragi (Left)
9. Sakurai (Right)

Pitcher was Standridge

Golden Eagles
1. Hijirisawa (Centre)
2. Takasu (Second)
3. Teppei (Right)
4. Nakamura (Third)
5. Yamasaki (DH)
6. Ruiz (First)
7. Kusano (Left)
8. Shima (Catcher)
9. Watanabe (Short)

Pitcher was Rasner

Tigers batters seemed to have learned nothing from their previous encounter with Rasner and continued on their sorry way. The first innings saw all three batters very quickly back in the dugout. Standridge had to work harder though. The first out came easily enough but then Takasu drew a walk. Teppei followed up with a hit and Golden Eagles had runners on first and second. Nakamura grounded out into a double play though and the innings was over. Tigers first run came from the bat of Kanemoto who led off the second with a solo home run to right 1-0 Tigers. This was a typical Kanemoto home run and lets hope there are more to come. His arm is almost healed and so he should be back in the field soon. No one else got on base and really one of the best batting lineups surrendered tamely. In Golden Eagles second Kusano drew a two out walk but Shima grounded out tamely to third to end the innings. Sakurai picked up a dead ball in Tigers third but then Toritani hit a liner straight back to Rasner who was quick enough to throw to first and get Sakurai picked off to end the innings. This was really an inept display by everyone except Kanemoto. Golden Eagles also couldn't get past Standridge and their third was quiet.

Tigers batters continued to embarass themselves and Rasner probably thought it was his birthday. He was having an easy job and his control had only been challenged once. The Tigers fourth was quiet. Teppei meanwhile was having a great game for Rakuten - he led off their fourth with a hit. Yamasaki followed with another after Nakamura had struck out looking but then with runners on first and second Standridge struck out Ruiz and got Kusano to ground out to end the innings. Still he was having to work harder than Rasner. He had another easy ride finishing Tigers fifth by striking out Johjima - only his second of the game. Shima led off Golden Eagles fifth with a hit and was bunted to second but got no further as the next two batters failed to convert. In Tigers sixth we saw only their second hit - so lamentable had their batting been and this was to Katsuragi. He was pinch run for by Shunsuke Fujikawa and made second on Toritani's short ground out but this was with two outs. Hirano was next and someone does need to work with him to improve his hitting with runners on. He might not drive in many but he could manage more. He grounded out to end the innings. Standridge returned for another innings but this turned out to be one too many. With one out he faced Nakamura who hit nicely to right for a solo home run 1-1 scores tied. Yamasaki struck out but then Ruiz hit to right. Standridge was tiring and let go a wild pitch which took the Ruiz to second. Kusano hit to right and Ruiz was able to beat the throw home 2-1 Golden Eagles, runner on second as Kusano took advantage of the attention focused on the home plate. Shima grounded out to end the innings but Golden Eagles had turned the game round.

Rasner returned for the Tigers seventh and once again reigned supreme retiring the batters in order. He had thrown only 94 pitches in his seven innings and had maintained an almost unbreakable stranglehold on the game. Tigers really didn't know what to do against him and given that he is such a mediocre pitcher one has to ask why? One really can't blame Mayumi for this failure, he might have chosen a strange lineup but the fault in this game rests with the players. For Golden Eagles seventh Mayumi wisely changed pitchers and Nishimura took the mound. He walked Takasu with two out but then got Teppei to ground out to first to end the innings. Just to emphasise the paucitly of Golden Eagles resources the replacement pitcher was Katayama. Brazell led off the innings with a two base hit (he was pinch run for by Yamato). Johjima grounded out which took Yamato to third and Katayama exited to be replaced by Koyama. This didn't work and Sekimoto (pinch hitter) hit to bring him home 2-2 scores tied, runner on first. Sakurai snatched at his second pitch and flew out to second and then Toritani struck out to end the innings. Nishimura returned for Golden Eagles eighth and gave up a two out hit to Ruiz. However, the next batter Kusano flew out to end the innings. Tigers ninth started with a Hirano hit. Murton grounded out to third which took Hirano to second. Kanemoto walked to set up runners on first and second. Pitchers changed at this point and Kawagishi took the mound. Arai could only ground out to first which brought the runners round to second and third. At this point Mayumi removed Yamato and brought in Hiyama as pinch hitter. Brown went to the mound to issue instructions to his pitcher. These worked as he struck out Hiyama to end the innings. For Golden Eagles ninth, Mayumi decided to go with Watanabe. In the game against Fighters he had used Fujikawa who gave up a home run but the game was won. Perhaps here he should have used Fujikawa again - it is unlikely that history would have repeated itself and Watanabe despite his obvious quality is a nervy pitcher. Watanabe started poorly, walking Shima as he struggled to get calm. Watanabe (Golden Eagles short) bunted but Sekimoto messed the throw up and there were runners on first and second. Hijirisawa grounded out to Watanabe which kept the runners locked on base and then Uchimura (replacement second) grounded out to second which moved Shima to third. Still only one out to get but the next batter was Teppei. He threaded his third pitch between the outstretched glove of Watanabe and Toritani's dive for a centre sayonara hit 3-2 Golden Eagles - game over.

Not a lot can be said of Tigers performance in this game. Nishimura was good and Standridge also worked very hard but the batting was poor. The ninth could also have been handled better - walking the lead off batter whilst unimportant to Kyuji matters to Watanabe and he tends to get nervous. Golden Eagles didn't do anything special - it was just that Tigers lowered themselves to a level significantly below that of their opponents. An inability to deal with a mediocre starter and to make the most of their chances had ensured a very embarrassing defeat.

Haha, a day after I defend Mayumi for a whole afternoon he goes and does something weird like making Toritani his leadoff hitter. No arguments from me here - I would have much preferred a line up of Hirano-Shunsuke-Murton-Kanemoto-Arai-Brazell-Johjima-Toritani-Sakurai (or even Sakurai-Toritani at the end, to use Tori as a sort of pseudo-leadoff hitter when he comes up ahead of Hirano and Shunsuke). Having him hit leadoff, especially coming off an injury, is both a risk and an odd use of his talents. Oh well.

I agreed with Mayumi tabbing Watanabe to pitch the 9th, though - the guy had an ERA below 1.00 coming into the game, and had just pitched really well in the extra-innings win against Nippon Ham. Don't forget that, as the away team, even if the Tigers had scored they would have needed to shut down the Eagles in the bottom of the inning, and Mayumi was saving Kyuji for that situation - don't forget Kyuji threw a pair of six-out saves last week, and probably wouldn't have been good to go two innings. As the home team the Eagles had the advantage of bringing out their closer to shut down Hiyama when they got into trouble and then gunning for the walkoff in the bottom of the inning. I'm certain Mayumi would have used Kyuji if the game had been at Koshien - he's done it several times this season already, including the walkoff win against the Marines last week. That's why having last licks in a close game is such a big advantage.

I can understand the argument for using Watanabe and reserving Fujikawa for the save but this wouldn't have been a save situation. I was referring to some interesting figures produced by Jim Allen in his Hot Corner which I think are significant. He points out (and bear with me while I quote the figures he produces) that if the home team has a winning percentage of .927 (331-26-8) with a one run lead going into the ninth, this drops to .523 (188-67-48) in a tied game going into the ninth. For the visitors the drop is even more noticeable from .841 (254-48-4) with a one run lead to .307 (90-203-55) in a tied situation. What he suggests is that using your closer in this situation could boost the chances of winning. If Kyuji was used in this situation then Tigers would have more of a chance of winning in extra innings where they are strong. Kyuji would pitch the ninth but not get the save (he's done that under Mayumi before). The order would be reversed and Watanabe (and maybe Egusa) would be pitching one or maybe two innings to win. As you note - the Golden Eagles did use their closer and went for the sayonara but a use of Kyuji could well have blocked that strategy. Jim Allen gives figures of 8-2-2 for games since 2006 when Kyuji has been used in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth with the two losses not coming in the ninth innings. Those are pretty significant figures to my mind.

Just went and had a look at Jim Allen's article - interesting read, but he makes a bit of a logical leap claiming that the big dip in winning percentages is based largely on the quality of relievers used. The numbers on the Swallows are interesting, but that's a really small sample size, and that team, as he himself points out, is just awful offensively. I wouldn't mind seeing stats for more teams or more seasons, though - I don't pretend to know everything about baseball!

In this particular case, though, I still feel like Watanabe was the right choice. Maybe once the runner reached second and strikeouts became important swapping Nabe for Kyuji would have been the better play, especially given that at that point the next inning would have been the lower part of the order - much easier for someone like Egusa to deal with. Again, though, the fact is that Kyuji has pitched loads lately, and if Mayumi starts to use him every time a game is tied late in addition to save situations, his shoulder will blow out by late August. That Hi-no-Tama is pretty taxing to throw.

Your point is well-made, though, this one was certainly debatable. Cheers again for a great entry.

I also think that using Watanabe at that ining is not a bad decision. But one can not say that it is the right decision because the result speaks. However, when facing one of very good left handed batter with the runner at the corner like that, keep using Watanabe who was quite nerve is the wrong decision. At least, Mayumi should try to change to left handed pitcher or doing something to help his pitcher.