June 9th Fossum v Wakui - Sayonara loss

This was one of Fossum's better outings with some great pitching by him. He didn't figure in the result - a loss which went to Watanabe. This game Mayumi handled the pitching well with the proviso that Kyuji would have been better in the ninth. In these sort of tied games when Kyuji has pitched the ninth Tigers have not lost in the ninth. They have lost two out of thirteen but these have been in extra innings after Kyuji has left the mound. With Kyuji pitching the ninth eight games have been victories and three ties (figures courtesy of Jim Allen). This being said Kataoka's winning single was streaky and could have easily ended up as a third ground out. Tigers batters couldn't figure out Wakui after the first innings even though he threw an incredible 149 pitches in his session. On a surprising note Tigers new reserve catcher is Komiyama - one wonders why? Kanoh is the better catcher and the more experienced. Scores

        1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9  R H E
Tigers  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  1 4 0
Lions   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1x 2 6 0

Starting lineups

Tigers
1. Toritani (Short)
2. Hirano (Second)
3. Murton (Centre)
4. Kanemoto (DH)
5. Arai (Third)
6. Brazell (First)
7. Johjima (Catcher)
8. Lin (Left)
9. Sakurai (Right)

PItcher was Fossum

Lions
1. Kataoka (Second)
2. Kuriyama (Centre)
3. Nakajima (Short)
4. Nakamura (First)
5. Brown (DH)
6. Takayama (Right)
7. G. G. Sato (Left)
8. Hosokawa (Catcher)
9. Abe (Third)

The first ball of the game was loose and Toritani hit it to right centre for a two base. Not the most auspicious of starts for Wakui but he would get better. Toritani is wasted at lead off though - his opportunities to drive in runs are very much reduced. Hirano grounded out to second but moved Toritani onto third and then Murton hit to bring the runner home 1-0 Tigers,runner on first. Kanemoto who is batting DH flew out and here even though Asai made way for Lin I would have preferred to see him at DH. Murton stole second but then Arai struck out and Tigers brief window of opportunity had closed. Still they had made some use of it. It was now up to Fossum who got the first two outs but then gave up a two base hit to Nakajima. Nakamura swung at his first pitch and flew out to Brazell at first to end the innings. The Tigers second was where things stopped. Wakui established control and never relinquished it. He retired the batters 1-2-3. Brown lined out to start Lions second and then Takayama hit a two base. Fossum responded superbly, striking out the next two batters with a mixture of pitches. He used his fastball much less this game. Tigers third was quiet and so was Lions - it was very much a pitcher's battle.

Murton led off Tigers fourth and this time flew out. Tigers batters were having great difficulty getting on base by now. Nakajima walked to lead off the bottom but was forced out by Nakamura. He made second on Brown's ground out but watched as Takayama struck out. In Tigers fifth Wakui returned the complement by walking Brazell. Lin hit to set up runners on first and second but then Sakurai grounded into a double play to end the innings. With two out in Lions fifth Murton walked Abe. Next up was pachimon Kataoka who hit streakily (both his hits were rather streaky) along the right baseline into the corner. Both runners tore round the bases with the result that Kataoka was on third and the score was level 1-1. Kuriyama struck out and the innings was over. Tigers sixth saw more ineffective batting - no runner on base either. Fossum returned for the Lions sixth and pitched rather tiredly it must be said. He got the first two outs but then walked Brown. Takayama hit to left and then G. G. Sato managed a third hit to load the bases. Hosokawa took a swing at his first pitch and flew out to right to end the innings. Tigers had escaped but it was clear that Fossum wouldn't have managed a seventh.

Talking of sevenths, Tigers seventh followed the same depressing pattern as most of the other innings. The batters were unable to deal with Wakui who remained firmly in control. Mayumi heeded the warning signs and the Tigers pitcher for the Lions seventh was Nishmura. He also retired the batters in order and one was pleased to see that the Tigers were still fighting and that their pitching was matching the Lions. Tigers eighth was the usual 1-2-3 pattern. Even though Wakui must have been tiring he was still able to dominate. Nishimura returned for the Lions eighth and started well and striking out the first two batters he faced but then walking Brown. This didn't matter as Takayama grounded out to third to end the innings. Wakui only had one more innings left in him and almost lost it. Hirano was the catalyst with a one out centre hit. Murton grounded out but Lions preferred to walk Kanemoto rather than try to get him out. Runners on first and second with Arai next. Tigers really needed something from him but he grounded out to first to end the innings and Wakui had escaped. Watanabe pitched Lions ninth and for the second time in recent history would lose the game (though there was an element of luck in this one). He shouldn't have walked G. G. Sato as lead off though. This just put him under pressure. Hosokawa flew out in foul ground and then Hara (replacement second) bunted Sato to second. This brought up Kataoka who's streaky single just evaded the dive of Arai at third. 2-1 Lions sayonara victory.

All rather unfortunate - Tigers had been unlucky and had played well. Their pitching had been first rate and they had matched Lions who really had all the luck. Batting could have been better and more could have been made of the ninth innings chance though Seibu could have also made more of their sixth against Fossum. The latter was much improved and the relief had shown good qualities. Watanabe though doesn't seem a suitable pitcher for the ninth innings. He seems to pitch much better if he's asked to follow Fujikawa, otherwise he gives up runs (there are also the three runs he gave up against Seibu at Koshien in the ninth). Seibu had beaten the Tigers 3-0 in the series and Tigers do need to win the game tongiht to avoid being swept.

Hi Christopher - I can see that you may be holding back on your usual Mayumi bashing, but your Mayumi bashing would have been justified on this occasion. I watched the game and really could not believe Kyuji was not on for the 9th. I was FUMING - it is like the white flag and give Lions a huge incentive to go for the Sayonara. As you say Kyuji's record for 9th is first rate and putting someone with a less formidable reputation who has conceded 3 runs in his last 9th was a joke. Tigers had more than matched an in-form Lions, only to blow it! REALLY wasted the effort of Fossum - why bother if the manager is going to play the weak card at the crucial moment?

Again, as the away team, it's tough to bring out Kyuji there, since you absolutely know you're going to have at least one other defensive inning after the 9th to play. Also, the Lions were at the 7-8-9 spots in their lineup, usually the weakest part. If Mayumi brings Kyuji in at that point and he goes 1-2-3, then the Tigers score, Watanabe or Nishimura would have had to try for the save against the Lions leadoff men or cleanup crew. Much trickier situation. Mayumi trusted his second best bullpen arm to get through the weakest part of the Lions' lineup, and he couldn't do it. Happens.

Also, blaming Mayumi for the loss in a game in which the other manager rode his team's young ace for 149 pitches seems to be missing the big pitcture. Wakui was lights out, but if they keep doing that to him he'll blow out his shoulder before he turns 33.

Here I think the risk is worth it - this makes it the third time Watanabe has given up runs in the ninth and the second sayonara he has given up. He is a fine pitcher but seems to lack the temperament. The figures I quote in the latest post actually back this up rather well 13 tied games in the ninth which Kyuji pitches. He doesn't blow any of them and Tigers go on to win 8. They tie three and lose 2. The odds surprisingly are with having the weaker men follow Kyuji not with preserving him for the save. The point is to increase your chance of victory - if your second best man cannot do it you need to use your best. Though, like you I don't blame Mayumi for the loss - he made a decision which a lot of people would have made despite the figures.

Yeah, you mentioned that last time. I went ahead and just now did a little check on Baseball Prospectus for some numbers, and what I found surprised me - looks like you guys are right and I was wrong!

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=648

Again, there's a lot more variables to be taken into account - in this case, specifically, I'd rather trust Watanabe to get through the bottom of the order and save Kyuji for the 2-3-4 guys in the 10th - but, in general, looks like I'm going to have to re-evaluate my views on this.

Thanks, I learned something!

Interesting stuff. If Jim Caple is with you, I'm done arguing, mostly.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080805

The whole thing surprised me as well and for this we have to thank Jim Allen. Also thanks for the articles they were very interesting and very informative.