Hanshin Tigers 2012 Preview

Plus ca change, plus c'est le meme chose

Tigers face the new season with an avowed policy of developing young players and a new manager who has not yet won his spurs. In fact one cannot see this being a successful season and a B class finish is likely. The positive thing is that Mayumi is no longer at the helm but the repercussions of his regime still have to be played out and his ghost has not yet been exorcised. We also have to wonder whether the front office fully understands how to run a baseball team. My suspicion is probably not. The fact that Tigers passed over both Nishida and Ochiai - experienced managers with records of success - to choose someone with no management experience whatsoever is indicative of the level of decision making in the organisation.

Trades and Free Agents
Tigers did clear out a lot of players including some who should have gone, Shimoyanagi and Katsuragi for example but others who should have been retained Sakurai and Abe. However, unlike last year very little spending took place - in fact Tigers bought no one in the post season whilst Giants bought in some very useful free agents. This, though, fits in with the stated policy of focusing on younger homegrown players. One trade did take place, the uncooperative Uezono was traded to Rakuten for their unsuccessful pitcher Matsuzaki. This is an indictment of failure on the part of the management and coaching team. Uezono was rookie of the year in 2007 and looked to have a very promising career ahead of him. Instead he never delivered and one has to attribute this to the coaching of Kubo and the poor treatment he received. One wishes him luck in his new team. Matsuzaki doesn't look to add much to Tigers but a change of scenery might do him good. However, Tigers signing of free agents has been particularly poor - the lamentable Fujii and Katoh being prime examples. Of the foreign players only Vechionacci was let go with Murton, Standridge, Brazell and Messenger all returning for the 2012 season. Murton is particularly welcome as their was talk of him going to the Major League for the 2012 season. One can't help but feel that Tigers have regressed though and even more than last years have missed vital opportunities to strengthen the team.

Batting
Tigers batting lineup remains much the same with no real change as such. There is talk of bringing Ryota Arai more into the action and this would be welcome. Mayumi's group of favourites are also likely to return though only Shibata showed any real promise. He should get more playing time as he improved at the end of the season. A lot of attention is being paid to the new draftee Itoh (No. 51) and it will be interesting to see if he gets much playing time. The core of the Tigers batting is still expected to revolve around the combination of Toritani, Arai and Brazell. Murton and Johjima are also expected to contribute but even here we have some dark clouds. Last year Brazell was platooned with Mayumi favourites which led to the absurdity of players like Yamato and Shunsuke batting five. Brazell expressed his displeasure last season and has indicated that he doesn't want this to happen this season - an unhappy player doesn't drive in as many runs and it might be wise to heed Brazell's wishes. Wada's thoughts on the matter are worrying. He has been speculating about platooning Brazell with Johjima at first thus avoiding the power loss in the five slot. However, Johjima has indicated he wants to catch and not to play first. Two unhappy players are not going to benefit the team. As this manoeuvre is really to give Fujii playing time it is beyond comprehension. Fujii was totally inadequate as a catcher and added nothing to the team offense. He really shouldn't be in the top team at all and should spend the second season of his contract in ni-gun. Tigers could then concentrate on developing Komiyama (who showed considerable promise) and Shimizu. The veteran Kanemoto will also form part of the batting lineup but one can only expect his deterioration to continue. Here we see poor management - no one has the courage to tell him that he's on the downward curve. Hirano should start at number one or two and he has proven to be a valuable signing. One hopes though that he does manage to learn how to slide into a base properly.
Pinch hitting will once again be based around Hiyama though with his collar bone injury preseason this may well be his last season. Support should come from Asai and Sekimoto and some of the younger players but if Hiyama doesn't perform it will be a big hole in Tigers lineup.

Pitching
The major issue of 2011 was the inability of Mayumi to manage pitching. Starters were over-pitched terribly. Standridge and Kubo both suffered from this and Mayumi seemed to have no interest in pitching limits. Wada will have to pay close attention to these if he wants to maintain a healthy and successful lineup throughout the season. Messenger, Iwata, Standridge and Nohmi will form the core of the starting lineup. Messenger has matured nicely and in 2011 was Tigers best pitcher. Nohmi was also impressive. There are plans to convert Kobayashi to a starter and Wada has made noises about bringing in Akiyama and some of the younger draft signings sooner. What seems to have been recognised is that Tigers have been terrible in developing young talent in the past with Uezono being the prime example. Here there is a genuine attempt to change things but with a new pitching coach it must be debatable how much can be accomplished.
The relief will lack Kobayashi if plans do go through for him to become a starter which may clear up space for new talent. Watanabe will have to shoulder most of the responsibility for the middle relief though it has also been suggested that Kubo could be converted to a reliever. It was felt that his performance wasn't good enough last season but this was really down to over-pitching. Tsutsui and Nishimura will both have to perform better and at the moment Tigers have a question mark over their setup. In last season's preview I mentioned that Fukuhara should have no role in the side at all but in a rare success for Mayumi he was converted into a reliever and a very successful one. One hopes he can continue this form. Enokida will probably have to assume a greater role than before and one hopes he can handle it. The main closing duties will once again devolve to Fujikawa in what is very likely his last season at Tigers. He is adamant about going to the Majors and he will receive his international free agency after the 2012 season.
Tigers have a potentially strong rotation of starters but a fading relief corps. The major problem is going to be catching. Despite the evidence of failure and inadequacy it is certain that Fujii is going to call some games. He didn't manage the pitching at all well last season and he himself acknowledged that so he knows he has to step up several levels. However, it is unlikely he can and the less we see him behind the plate the better.

Prospects
Tigers have a tyro as manager, a fading relief and an unhappy batting lineup. One can't really rate their chances very highly. On the plus side players should be familiar with the new ball by now and they have some very capable starters. However on the minus side, a new manager chosen because he is an old boy not because he has talent (Sakai owner stated on the choice of Wada that he was chosen because he had seen the good times and the bad times). One can only hope that Wada has watched and learned but he wasn't successful as third base coach or batting coach either. His rise has been too fast given that he hasn't demonstrated any ability yet - he may be a late bloomer but it's unlikely. Tigers do have the potential for a playoff finish given that Dragons have also lost their manager and are a weak side but we are probably looking at a B class finish again.

Although history is not on the side of managers in their first year with the Tigers, I think we can finish 2nd next year. That's my prediction anyway. Giants were inconsistent last year, so I unfortunately think they will improve and finish 1st. This is a no-brainer when also considering the new players they have brought in. If you look at other A division teams last year, I think the Swallows played over their heads and will return to form this year. Dragons always seem to stay competitive, but I think they finally lost too many players. Without Ochiai to work his magic, they could finally drop to B division. We do have questions marks, but also have above average batting and pitching, so I'm predicting a 2nd place finish.

It would be great if Tigers could reach second this year and I understand the logic behind your reasoning. However, I do feel that the factors of, a tyro manager with a less than illustrious coaching record to date, a fading relief and the insistence on using a sub-standard catcher will prove too great hurdles to overcome. Couple this with an emphasis on playing young lightweights and one cannot be too confident. I am hoping that Itoh justifies the hype but really do not see the change in coaches as being anything substantive.

So Christopher do you have a prediction for Tigers for 2012? Despite some issues like the new manager and Johjima's condition, I'm sticking with my prediction that talent alone will get them a 2nd place finish.

My prediction is a B class finish. Catching is a big issue especially with the reliance on Fujii. I am also disturbed that the Tigers have not been signing free agents at all.

Hopefully it's far from final, but a possible batting line-up reported on Sponichi already has me questioning Wada:
1. Toritani
2. Hirano
3. Arai
4. Murton
5. Kanemoto
6. Brazell/Johjima
Not my ideal line-up. I used to like the idea of Murton batting 4th, but he hasn't prospered there and I like him first. Of course Kanemoto should be batting lower than that until he proves that he is healthy and consistent. Ugh...