April 20th Nohmi v Alvarado - Amateur management and poor batting

Wada made a mess of last nights game with a strategy worthy of an amateur. It didn't help that the opposition played like 'has beens' and 'never will bes'. Tigers threw away chance after chance with poor running and poor batting. Komiyama was not good with the bat and needs more practice but he called well. However, one has to question the logic of replacing Komiyama and Nohmi in the seventh. Both the ineffective Sekimoto and Ryota Arai added nothing to Tigers offense and it was up to Hirano and Johjima to get things going. What this accomplised was that Okazaki, the replacement catcher had to be accommodated somewhere and Wada's chosen victim was Takahiro Arai - a choice of incredible idiocy. Okazaki was his usual useless self and gave up a vital run in conjunction with Fukuhara. This proved significant in the ninth when BayStars walked Toritani to load the bases and get at Okazaki - they would have never walked him to get at Arai. On two occasions as well base runners were stupidly held on third - in the seventh Shunsuke was held up, what is the point of bringing on a speedster if you are not going to use him and when Hiyama was held on third instead of going for home in the ninth. Nothing ventured nothing gained as they say. This with a procession of inept pitchers. One also has to question the decision to put Fukuhara in for two innings - not very wise at all. Tigers need to play considerably better to be considered championship contenders - BayStars were there for the taking but Tigers let them off the hook time and again. Scores

          1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Tigers    0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 9 0
BayStars  0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 X 3 8 1

Tigers
1. Hirano (Second)
2. Shibata (Centre)
3. Toritani (Short)
4. Arai (Third)
5. Brazell (First)
6. Murton (Right)
7. Kanemoto (Left)
8. Komiyama (Catcher)
9. Nohmi (Pitcher)

BayStars
1. Watanabe (Short)
2. Ishikawa (Second)
3. Nakamura (Third)
4. Ramirez (Left)
5. Koike (First)
6. Morimoto (Centre)
7. Shimamura (Right)
8. Tsuruoka (Catcher)
9. Alvarado (Pitcher)

Tigers started poorly by grounding out but so did BayStars who also rapidly fell. Arai led off Tigers second striking out - he is going through a bit of a lean patch but Brazell hit a two base to right. Murton hit to centre but Brazell did not advance. The first example of poor work by the Tigers. Then Kanemoto hit to centre as well to load the bases. Brazell was held up on third probably wisely but Komiyama struck out. He needs to work more on this aspect of his game. Nohmi was the final batter and he grounded out off his first pitch. This was BayStars first escape. The BayStars second was quiet with the batters falling in order. Tigers third was also quiet with the top of the order failing to get on base. BayStars third saw their first hit - a two out single to Shimamura but Tsuruoka grounded out to end the innings.

Arai led off Tigers fourth with a two base driven nicely to right. Brazell walked but Murton struck out looking. Kanemoto worked the count full and then walked to load the bases - given the previous debacle in the second he would have done better to try and hit. Next was Komiyama who struck out swinging again. Nohmi grounded out to second again as well. Alvarado's pitching was nothing if not he same. Tigers batting coaches should teach Komiyama how to hit sacrifice flies. For some reason Ishikawa is proving a magnet for dead balls and his first pitch hit him. Next was Nakamura who got a lucky swing. The ball went high along the third base line and just stayed inside the foul pole for a two run home run 2-0 BayStars. This unsettled Nohmi for some reason and he gave up a left single to Ramirez. Then Koike hit right and BayStars had runners on first and second with no outs. Still Nakahata's brain dead move of having Morimoto bunt the runners to second and third rescued Tigers. Shimamura flew out to second and Tsuroka was deliberately walked to get to Alvarado. He duly struck out swinging to end the innings. Tigers had an immediate chance to strike back in the fifth. Hirano hit to Alvarado who messed it up allowing Hirano to make first. Shibata flew out but then with Toritani striking out Hirano stole second. It was up to Arai but he grounded out to short to end the innings. For BayStars fifth Ishikawa singled with one out. Then Nakamura also singled to set up runners on first and second. Ramirez hit into a straightforward double play to end the innings. Tigers sixth saw the batters mess up against a tiring pitcher - no one got on base but Alvarado was really struggling. Morimoto walked on a full count in BayStars sixth but the next two batters made sure he went nowhere the innings was scoreless.

Now we come to Wada's folly - the seventh. There was no need to go to pinch hitters at all. The pitcher was Kaga and he faced Sekimoto who struck out in the most foolish way possible. Ryota Arai grounded out to second also proving to be a waste of time. Hirano though singled to centre. Next was Johjima (pinch hitter) who also hit to centre - he was pinch run for by Shunsuke and Tigers had runners on first and third. At that point Nakahata switched pitchers bringing on Ohhara. Toritani let fly and drove the ball deep to right bringing in Hirano but Shunsuke was held up on third, an act of real stupidity by the third base coach. 2-1 BayStars Shunsuke would have been the tying run and Tigers should have gone for it. After Ohhara's blunder Kikuchi took the mound. Tigers had runners on second and third but Arai hit to short for the ground out and the end of the innings. Okazaki took over catching duties and the fourth batter spot whilst Sekimoto took over third. One wonders what was going on in Wada's mind. Anyway, the Fukuhara Okazaki combination worked rather well in BayStars seventh and no one got on base. Shinohara pitched Tigers eighth and retired the batters in order. Fukuhara returned for BayStars eighth and this immediately proved to be an error. Nakamura singled to centre and was bunted to second by Matsumoto (replacement left - it wasn't only Wada who had strange notions of who consituted a No. 4 batter). Koike drew a walk and then Morimoto singled to centre - some abysmal calling by Okazaki. Nakamura showed good speed around the bases to reach home safely 3-1 BayStars and the killer blow. Koike though tried to go too far and was run down and tagged out between third and home. This still left Morimoto on second but Shimozono (pinch hitter) grounded out. Yamaguchi, BayStars star closer took the mound for Tigers ninth and watching him pitch you thought - this guy is their star? He faced Sekimoto who flew out uselessly and then Hiyama (pinch hitter) who hit deep to left for a two base hit. Next was Hirano who drove the ball right but Hiyama was held up on third. Tigers didn't really had the luxury of waiting and needed to get the runners round. Hirano was pinch run for by Yamato who made second when Shunsuke grounded out to third. No point Hiyama trying for home here. Now we got to Toritani and a BayStars mound conference. Of course BayStars were going to walk him and have a go at Okazaki - something they would never do with Arai there. So bases loaded but with a lightweight batter up next. To his credit Okazaki did try but could only ground out to second to end the game. BayStars victory.

This proved to be BayStars first victory at Hamasta (their new mascot is a Hamster as well) which was surprising. Tigers ineptness had messed up the game against a team that looked bottom feeders throughout the game with only Morimoto looking like a professional. BayStars have no hope of a playoff series berth but if Tigers play like this more often one can see them racing the Yokohama outfit for the bottom spot.

I have a sinking feeling this terrible team is going to give us problems all year. They played us tough in the first series and now have taken the first two of this one (including today).

Aside from the excessive bunting (which isn't surprising), I haven't had major issues with Wada so far. Of course this is probably because we've been winning! But yes, last night was a disaster. That strange juggling of the line-up really cost us the chance to do something exciting at the end of the game.

As you mentioned, the backlash I feared has happened. After getting several players thrown out at home, the Tigers are now being super conservative with trying to score. I did like the aggressive base running early in the year, but this could come to an abrupt end.

My other issue is the batting order with regards to Murton. Although it does give us some balance and some good batting towards the bottom of the line-up, why is Murton batting 6th? In his first year in Japan he broke the hits record and last year he nearly won the batting title. So wouldn't you want someone like that near the top of the order? At first I thought Wada was just easing him back into the line-up after his injury, but he hasn't budged, despite the fact that he's turning into one of our hottest hitters. Any opinion on the batting order?

Up until now I hadn't had any issues with Wada either. In fact I had been impressed by his start. But still pulling Arai - I just can't understand the rationale behind it. You pull the league batting leader? I will cover today's game in more detail including the folly of starting Okazaki. We did see some aggessive running today though with Brazell doing nicely. This needs to continue.

As for the batting order I am thinking that Murton should be batting one or three. One as long as Hirano does not bunt. Toritani can handle six and Kanemoto is actually doing quite well at the moment. Better than I thought he would. Komiyama should stay at eight but needs work - he will never be a great batter with practice should develop into a reasonable batter.

It's a real shame we can't break out of the bunting mentality and take more advantage of what we have in Murton and Hirano. With the way the two of them have been hitting the past two seasons, there is so much potential for the top of the line-up. But yes, the problem with them 1-2 is if Murton gets on, then Hirano inevitably gets the sign to bunt. Nothing wrong with the bunt now and then, but why not go for the big inning on occasion as well? I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but when it's been so long since a championship, all us fans are armchair kantoku!

It took a bit of finding but this post from 'Arthur' discusses the bunt and the sabermetrics of the move. Interesting reading and very convincing.

'The out lost is much more valuable than the base gained. "Baseball's Secret Formula" gives us the following scenario when applying Bill James's sabermetrics: a runner on first with no outs gives the batting team an average of .95 runs per inning. When the batter sacrifices his at-bat, it gives the team a runner on second and one out, but the team's average runs per inning drops to .73 for the inning. A runner on second with two outs further plummets the team's scoring average to .25 for the inning. However, if the batter hits a single instead of sacrificing, the team's runs per inning soars to at least 1.57 runs with runners on first and second with no outs.'

http://www.skepticalmonkey.com/sabermetrics-debunks-traditional-baseball-strategy

It's probably still fine for pitchers, but a pinch bunt is stupidity beyond belief, as is asking the clean up hitters to bunt. "

As a follow-up to that topic, I did a bit more reading about bunting. Here's an easy to read article:

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2011/8/17/2365806/a-sabermetric-view-of-bunting

It can increase your chances of scoring one run (if you only need one run), depending on the hitter, how good the hitter on deck is, where the runners are, etc.

It's definitely a waste of time to bunt in the first inning, but the one that drives me mad is when Komiyama is asked to bunt to allow the pitcher to try and drive in a run! That's madness.

(By the way, I remember when Iwata was negotiating a new contract he took a bunch of his sabermetrics with him to the negotiations to show he was deserving of a pay rise... I would love to have seen the faces of the Tigers management when faced with something more complex that a win/loss chart.)

The sabermetrics went over the managment's collective heads. They couldn't understand it. The absurdity of bunting was that Hirano was at one point batting .340 and was still being asked to bunt.
I like the idea of using a bunt in a squeeze - it's worth it to try and score a run but apart from that I rarely see any use in it. Your other article seems to back this up. However, Japanese managers love the bunt to distraction.

I also have no problems with the occasional bunt. It also depends on the team dynamic. When the Fighters won under Hillman, they had a very weak line-up but very strong pitching. In their case, manufacturing runs worked to their advantage. I believe the team actually set a record for sac bunts that year!

With the Tigers, however, they have a more powerful line-up and they should take some chances at big innings. What bothers me is the lack of thought of when the bunt is most or least useful. As Arthur pointed out, having a position player bunt before the pitcher is usually silly strategy. I saw this twice in one game a couple weeks back at Koshien, in which Komiyama was asked to bunt the runner to third. The whole point of having the runner on third is to put yourself in position for the sac fly. But with Nohmi coming up, there is little chance of a deep fly ball!