September 24th Nohmi v Kagami - The shinning top

A late flurry of runs saw BayStars burried at Koshien as Tigers asserted themselves. We also saw the sad return of Fujii to the top team - unfortunately he has recovered. On other notes Hiyama's retirement game will be October 5th against Giants at Koshien. Expect that to be sold out. Brooks Conrad (remember him?) has returned to the US; the latest Tigers pick to fail miserably. After the initial fuss he spent the time in the second team but the question has to be how could Tigers pick up someone so obviously unsuited to Japanese baseball after so many other failures. Tigers really are poor at selecting foreign power hitters unless someone else finds them. Scores

          1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R  H E
BayStars  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1  4 1
Tigers    0 0 1 0 1 0 0 4 X 6 10 0

Starting Lineups

BayStars
1. Ishikawa (Left)
2. Yamazaki (Second)
3. Kajitani (Short)
4. Nakamura (Third)
5. Gotoh (First)
6. Kinjoh (Right)
7. Aranami (Centre)
8. Tsuruoka (Catcher)
9. Kagami (Pitcher)

Tigers
1. Nishioka (Second)
2. Shunsuke (Centre)
3. Murton (Left)
4. Toritani (Short)
5. Fukudome (Right)
6. Ryota Arai (Third)
7. Morita (First)
8. Shimizu (Catcher)
9. Nohmi (Pitcher

BayStars actually got a good if over-long performance from their starter and Nohmi also pitched well. Still he gave up the first run. With two out in BayStars first Kajitani got hold of a loose pitch and managed to put it over the fence for a solo home run 1-0 BayStars. Nakamura grounded out to third to end the innings with BayStars in the lead. Kagami's start wasn't encouraging - walking Nishioka to lead off the Tigers innings. Wada came to the rescue having Shunsuke bunt him to second. Murton grounded out to short which took Nishioka to third and then Toritani walked. Fukudome was the next batter and hit to centre where he flew out to end the innings. Nohmi was sharp and controlled in BayStars second and ensured that there were no base runners. Ryota led off Tigers second with a single - once again Tigers had gotten their first batter of the innings on base and once again they would waste it. Morita struck out swinging and then Ryota tried to steal second. This was a non starter and a stupid idea and whoever thought it up should be dangled head first in prune juice. Shimizu struck out and Tigers were still waiting for that elusive score. With one out in BayStars third Kagami singled and here one must note that whatever Nohmi's good work his pitching to Kagami was a disgrace. He stayed on first though as Ishikawa struck out and Yamazaki flew out. Tigers third finally saw them do something. This time they didn't get their lead off batter on base - in fact two outs went down before Shunsuke walked. He stole second and obviously was a better bet for the steal than Ryota. Murton who seems to be enjoying No. 3 singled to centre and Shunsuke raced home 1-1 scores tied, runner on first. This seemed to unsettle Kagami who walked Toritani and then Fukudome to load the bases. Ryota took a full count and then hit to right hoping for the home run but ending up in the fielders glove to end the innings.

BayStars tried to bounce back in the fourth. With one out Nakamura singled and then Gotoh walked. Kinjoh provided the second out grounding out to short and moving the runners round to second and third. It was Aranami's big moment but he did not rise to the occasion and was the third out striking out swinging. Kagami did well in Tigers fourth though and no one got on base. Morita was once again proving a bit of a bust. In BayStars fifth we saw Kagami's second single a one out drive to right. Embarrassing for Nohmi. Kagami advanced to second on Ishikawa's ground out and once again Yamazaki couldn't do anything grounding out to third this time. Tigers fifth started out with a bang as the top of the order exploded into life. Nishioka doubled along the left baseline. Wada had to have the bunt. This was laid down by Shunsuke straight back to Kagami who had the time to throw to third to get the more dangerous base runner. Fortunately for Tigers he missed and Nishioka was able to make home 2-1 Tigers, runner on first. Murton flew out to centre and then Toritani's ground out took Shunsuke to second but Fukudome chose right to fly out to this time. Tigers had now overhauled the BayStars. Nohimi settled down and protected the lead competently and well. The three BayStars batters could do nothing. Kagami also showed considerable composure after the mess up of the previous innings and retired the Tigers batters in order as well.

BayStars seventh was quiet as well with Nohmi controlling the proceedings well and working well with Shimizu. Surprisingly, Kagami was put in for Tigers seventh even though he was tiring. Shunsuke doubled with two out and then Murton singled to centre. Shunsuke was held up on third and I would have liked to have seen him go for home - if you have fast runners it is good to use them. Tigers had runners on first and third and by a final supreme effort Kagami struck out Toritani looking. BayStars eighth was Nohmi's last innings. He did well and struck out two whilst keeping the runners off base. As a contrast in performances Nohmi had thrown 113 pitches over 8 innings and Kagami 131 over 7. Nohmi had clearly won the pitching battle. Tigers would also win the batting battle. BayStars pitcher for the eighth was Yamaguchi. He started the innings comfortably getting Fukudome to ground out to second but that was the extent of the good news. Next was Ryota who hit deep into left centre for a double. Saka (replacement third, Ryota having moved over to first) singled to put runners on the corner. The caution in stopping Ryota on third and recognising his limitations should have been exhibited earlier. Hiyama (pinch hitter) struck out swinging but then Arai walked to load the bases. Next was Nishioka and no one expected anything from him especially in a bases loaded situation. However, Yamaguchi wasn't on top form and Nishioka slammed a bases clearing double to centre right 5-1 Tigers, runner on second. Shunsuke hit left into the corner for another double and Nishioka was home 6-1 Tigers, runner on second. Murton singled to short which put runners on the corners again but the scoring was finished and a no doubt relieved Yamaguchi was able to get Toritani to ground out to third to end the innings. For BayStars ninth Tigers brought Fukuhara on to turn his arm over. He pitched to Fujii who unfortunately is recovered enough to assume his place in the top team. Still it was an easy innings with the shell shocked batters falling in order and being unable to muster any resistance. Tigers victory.

A nice victory founded on a good performance by Nohmi and good work by Shimizu. Whilst Kagami was holding Tigers the battery kept Tigers in the game and allowed them to take the lead. BayStars relief (well Yamaguchi) collapsed and Tigers took advantage. Both Nishioka and Shunsuke had collected a walk and two doubles apiece and the victory confirmed Tigers Climax Series place. There is still the possibility that they could end up third though - now that would be embarrassing but at the moment second and home advantage for the first series seems the more likely outcome.

"After the initial fuss "

Who made the initial fuss anyway? This was simply a bad signing from the start. Power hitter? He slugged just .400 and had a miserable .678 OPS over 5 years in the majors. That is a fair sample size and .678 OPS is embarrassing for a slugging position. All the metrics pointed to "bust". Japanese scouting, particularly Hanshin's is reknowned for being "old school".

There's always an 'initial fuss' over the Tigers latest foreign power hitter signing from the press and the Tigers management. It is almost always followed by disillusionment and disappointment which lasts until the next signing. Hanshin's scouting of power hitters has been truly terrible and their greatest successes have come from other team's rejects (recently; Arias in 2003, Sheets in 2005, Brazell in 2009). Hanshin management are not renowned for understanding the metrics though.

Thanks for the reply Christopher. I find Hanshin and Yomuri the worst evaluators of overseas talent. It's the smaller clubs that seem to have a better success rate and then the afore mentioned teams then pinch a few of those players like the ones you mentioned.

It looks like those smaller teams might be looking at advanced metrics, playing "moneyball" if you will and the dinosaur-thinking old school teams are too stubborn to accept advanced scouting at least in regards to scouting MLB players.

The whole NPB 'market' is distorted by the 'initial contract' (indentured serfdom). Players will play for one team for eight years once they are drafted. Thus Japanese players cannot move unless traded or let go and be lucky to picked up by another team. Thus moneyball doesn't really have much impact - there is no incentive if you have a player for eight years and you don't have to release him. There is no sophisticated analysis within Japan by team management anywhere. That being said the scouting mechanism for some of the others is more sophisticated than Tigers but even then a lot of the foreign players who come over fail even with other teams. Tigers though are getting worse and missed out on Tony Blanco last season.