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Nakamara signs with METS!

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Nakamara signs with METS!
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Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: torakichi | Posted: Dec 19, 2002 9:42 AM | HT Fan ]

Hmmm, Yahoo Sports (Japanese) reports that Kintetsu are going to have a second round of negotiations with Nori on or after the 24th, after which Nori is going to make a decision.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest | Posted: Dec 19, 2002 3:19 PM ]

I went to msgnetwork.com and found no mention of Nakamara signing with the Mets. The link given was probably pulled by msgnetwork.com since it was not true. I am also in New York on business and have heard nothing about this from WFAN (the Met's radio station), nor was it in today's NY Times. The only talk is of Matsui "likely" signing with the Yanks. So it appears, as of now, that Nakamara has not signed with the Mets.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Mariner Fan | Posted: Dec 19, 2002 4:43 PM ]

Someone should tell Nori! I can't find any story about Nori signing with the Mets. Until Nori or the Mets announce something any rumors should be considered bogus. Please, unless he is annouced as signed by the team or himself, don't write that he signed based on some silly website report (which appears to have been taken down by the website's webmaster anyway).
Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Cedric | Posted: Dec 20, 2002 10:17 AM ]

Here is confirmation (Hochi Sports - in Japanese).
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: a | Posted: Dec 20, 2002 2:41 PM ]

Another confirmation [NewsDay.com].
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Mariner Fan | Posted: Dec 20, 2002 5:43 PM ]

What's strange is that the NY Times is reporting that the Mets were desperately trying to sign Godzilla away from the Yankees yesterday. They wanted to make a big splash in New York and realized that Nori wasn't going to do it for them so they went hard after the "big guy". [Full Article - registration required]
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Max | Posted: Dec 20, 2002 9:34 PM ]

Another report [NJ.com].
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 21, 2002 12:08 PM | HT Fan ]

Looks like you're outta luck, Mets fans.

Nakamura spurns Mets, stays in Japan
Re: Nakamura Signs with Mets!
[ Author: Guest: BrianH | Posted: Dec 21, 2002 1:10 PM ]

According to ESPN.com, Nakamura has not decided who to play for yet and will announce his decision on Saturday. Oh yeah and the Mets signed Cliff Floyd (they're really going all out this offseason).

[Admin: The ESPN article has been updated to state that Nakamura has backed out of the deal.]
Re: Nakamura Signs with Mets!
[ Author: Guest | Posted: Dec 21, 2002 8:49 PM ]

Interesting. Norihiro could've improved the Mets significantly at third base. Now, I wonder if the team may opt for a nice, low-OBP player at the hot corner, such as Joe Randa. Yeesh.

- Simon
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Joe Riccobono | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 7:53 AM ]

Norihiro Nakamura could never and will never be able to hack it in US baseball. He was scared out of his mind to come over. He and the Mets made the right move by doing nothing. He can make more money and not get embarrassed by American pitching.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 9:57 AM ]

The guy was just scared.

"It's tough to join the major league. Good luck to Matsui," Nakamura told Japanese TV network Fuji.

He could have played for the Mets and still went back and got a bad contract. Now he will just be an average player that will never play in the Majors.

Nakamura = Tuffy Rhodes
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 3:38 PM ]

He may well be scared but I can't say I blame him. Money and playing level aside, moving to a new culture with a new language is enough to be scared about. I don't see why most of us consider the more risky decision to be the more respectable one, it's probably because we're not the ones taking the risk. When MLB isn't the more lucrative option (for once) and America isn't the more familiar culture, this is the more logical decision. He's as good as whatever numbers he can put up at the end of his career in Japan, which might be HOF caliber. I certainly don't consider Japanese HOFers average players.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 2:52 AM | HT Fan ]

A well researched synopsis of the Nakamura saga can be found at BaseballGuru.com, courtesy of Garland-san.

Nakamura: Bad Etiquette Caused Me to Reject Mets

It seems the Mets organization has something in common with its fans.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: BuffaloHeadPresident | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 1:09 PM ]

Bull****.

Nakamura was easily the best 3B on the market, since the Mets didn't take up their option on Alfonzo.

He hit .294, with 42 home runs and 115 runs batted in in 2002. He also had 86 walks.

.294/.400/.597 is nothing to sneeze at, as well as above-average defense at 3B.

Considering that Davenport's Park factors rates Kinetsu over 2000/1 as about 970 (a pitcher's park), the only deflation in Nakamura's American statistics would be from MLB pitching. Considering that Nakamura is one of the five best Japanese players today, he is as good, and probably significantly more developed than some of the best AAA prospects today.



.270/.360/.450 is probably a decent estimation of what Nakamura would have done, and that would make him one of the better 3B's in baseball and possibly an All-Star.

The reason Nakamura didn't sign is because, as it's becoming increasingly clear, the Mets pissed him off by not giving him a chance to break it to his manager at Kinetsu. Instead, it was reported that Nakamura was a Met on their own website. Since MLB.com aspires to be some sort of clearinghouse for baseball news, they try to print 'breaking news' and in doing so, pretty much sacrificed the Mets' chance to get Nakamura.

Considering that he was fairly apprehensive about going to America anyway - he doesn't speak the language, he's got a couple kids, he's been a Buffalo his whole life, he's from Osaka even - that probably upset him enough that at his dinner with the Kinetsu manager that night, that the manager was able to convince him to stay.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 3:11 PM | HT Fan ]

.270/.360/.450 is probably a decent estimation of what Nakamura would have done, and that would make him one of the better 3B's in baseball and possibly an All-Star.

I agree with you sentiment but think you're selling Nori a bit short. Using this thread as a guide, I think .280/.365/.485 is a less conservative, more accurate estimate. Too bad we'll never get the chance to find out.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 2:28 PM | HT Fan ]

Norihiro Nakamura could never and will never be able to hack it in US baseball. He was scared out of his mind to come over.

Sounds like sour grapes to me. It's ignorant statements like that that give NY fans their bad reputation.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 22, 2002 11:15 PM ]

Why is it sour grapes for the guy to say that? He even said he was scared in so many words. Also few scouts liked him.

Two scouts say that the Mets didn't miss out on much by failing to sign Japanese 3B Norihiro Nakamura. "I really liked him five or six years ago, but he's gotten soft and heavy," one says. "He wears a real baggy uniform. To me, that's hiding something."

Another scout says that Nakamura has poor hitting mechanics and plate discipline and is erratic defensively.

[Link - Sporting News]

A major league scout who has spent time in Japan yesterday agreed with that thinking.

"He might have done the Mets a big favor," the scout said. "I think he would have had a tough time adjusting, or even catching up to good major league fastballs on a regular basis." [Link - New York Daily News]

It's the reason only the Mets were interested.
MLB Writers in Denial?
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 12:05 AM | YBS Fan ]

Sounds to me like they're taking the turn down pretty hard, with writers going into denial that anyone worthy enough to play in the Majors would turn them down. It's all part of the "U.S.A. is #1" image that the mainstream press has been really trying to emphisize the past year+. Even the 7th Inning Streach has been tread upon with patriotic appeals, attempting to convince the country that giving up their freedoms will give them the security they want. To have someone not want to be a part of that ideal is unthinkable. So, if he doesn't want to go to the U.S., well then, write that the U.S. didn't really want him.

That's how I read these articles.
Re: MLB Writers in Denial?
[ Author: Guest: Jim Albright | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 1:06 AM ]

Didn't Nakamura also get more money to stay with his home town team he has had success with than he would have gotten with the Mets? That for me would be enough reason to stay, without the culture shock and/or the possible feeling of betrayal by the Mets in prematurely releasing the news. For somebody a bit ambivalent about moving halfway across the world to take a lesser offer, I can see how a premature release of the news of his signing could kill the deal. I was a little surprised he initially accepted the Mets' offer, given that it wasn't nearly as attractive as he had reportedly been offered by Japanese teams. Frankly, that tells me he really did want to play in the majors, though with some reservations about the money and the adjustments to playing in the States.

Jim Albright
Re: MLB Writers in Denial?
[ Author: torakichi | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 1:11 AM | HT Fan ]

Well said westbaystars-san. Their loss is our gain (but Hanshin's loss. )

- "He wears a real baggy uniform. To me, that's hiding something."

Utter codswallop! If he puts up the numbers and, with his good mate Rhodes, makes up arguably the best clean-up partnership in the Pa League, who cares what he weighs? He could be a sumo wrestler and it still wouldn't matter. Anyway, what does this "scout" want him to wear, a uniform that looks like a leotard?

- Another scout says that Nakamura has poor hitting mechanics and plate discipline and is erratic defensively.

Well, I'll remember that next time I see him carting the Pa League pitchers all over the park.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 1:40 AM | HT Fan ]

- Also few scouts liked him.

Ah, more sour grapes, but I'll play along. I take anonymous quotes with a grain of salt, especially when the evidence doesn't back up the statement. Or would you call an average of 90 walks per season (in 500 at-bats) over the past three years poor plate discipline? And how do they explain his "poor hitting mechanics" producing a 1.009 OPS over the same time period? That's 75 points higher than Kazuo's production, by the way.

These so-called scouts sound more like catty schoolgirls. "He must be hiding something." Pathetic. I put more stock in what Art Howe was quoted as saying in the NT Times [Registration required]:

- "[Nakamura] was impressive," Howe said. "He had some bat speed. He hit some home runs early in the series. He has a strong throwing arm. He has some potential. He kind of steps in the bucket a little bit, but he's on top of the plate and he steps a little bit toward third base, which is not the norm we teach here. But as long as he has plate coverage, that's the most important thing, and he does have very good bat speed. That's something you keep your eye on."

Or how about this quote from Rob Neyer on ESPN.com:

- Nakamura turns 30 next July, so he's still close to the prime of his career. When you figure Shea Stadium into the equation, Nakamura might not be quite as good as Edgardo Alfonzo was last season. But he should be close.

Believe what you want. If telling yourself that Nori never would've made it in the majors helps you sleep at night, more power to you. Just take the rationalizing back to the Mets board, please.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 11:02 AM ]

1908,

I'm actually a Mariners' fan. But the guy basically said he was scared. I was trying to tell Mets' fans he would just go back to Japan - referring to a report on Baseball Guru a while back. But if he was going to be so good in MLB, why were the Mets the only team interested? Especially at his price?
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 1:30 PM | HT Fan ]

- But the guy basically said he was scared.

I disagree. He did mention that Nakamura was scared but his main point was to question Nori's skills. That was your main point as well, correct? Or was your Nakamura=Tuffy Rhodes statement meant as a compliment?

- If he was going to be so good in MLB, why were the Mets the only team interested? Especially at his price?

I'm not sure. Maybe the bear free agent market had something to do with it. Or maybe a lot of MLB scouts retain their misconceptions about the quality of baseball being played in Japan despite Ichrio's success and recent sabermetric studies. Or maybe it wasn't economics or bias at all; maybe it was just a lack of first-hand knowledge. I think free agent decisions are often made by having the GM and some of the scouting types sit down and talk things over. Should we sign him? How good do you think he really is? What's your opinion, Scout X? etc... Seems to me that when the GM's never seen him, the Scouting Director has never seen him, the Director of Player Development has never seen him, and Scout X and Scout Y have never seen him, it's kind of hard to reassure yourself how good a guy is. The Mets have a scout based in Japan, but a lot of teams don't.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: BuffaloHeadPresident | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 2:36 PM ]

Let's not forget a few things..

- We have GM's trading 18 game winners to their division rivals for backup catchers.

- We have people signing Marquis Grissom to teams.

- We have people giving 7-8 million a year to Todd Hundley.

"Baseball people" by and large are idiots. That's why guys like Beane, Ricciardi, and Epstein are fleecing guys like crazy and are slowly making their imprint on baseball today, the first two with less than desirable budgets.

I don't think any team brought up Matsui until the Yankees did. No one's mentioning Cabrera, Petagine, or Rhodes, who would all probably not mind a return back to the States. (And don't give me this bull about how Rhodes was a failure and this proves Japanese baseball is bad. The Cubs tried to make a leadoff man out of him, for one. You don't hit 55 home runs in any league and don't have some talent.)

No one noticed him because MLB GMs aren't very smart.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 4:10 PM | HT Fan ]

Careful, sweeping generalizations are rarely correct. Baseball general managers certainly make mistakes -- many of which can be identified only in hindsight -- but saying that most of them are "idiots" or "not very smart" is a gross exaggeration. A downside of fantasy baseball, many fans think they could do a better job because they won their rotoleague this year.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Cedric | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 5:32 PM ]

"I'm not an elite player and didn't want to go where I'd forget that fact," he said. "I couldn't fool myself."

The real reason he backed out straight from his mouth. [Link - The Journal News]
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 4:15 PM ]

- No one noticed him because MLB GMs aren't very smart.

LOL
I find it very hard to believe that the Mets were the only team that scouted or knew about this guy. He has been around a long time. After hearing his price teams didn't even ask to speak to the guy which leads me to believe most scouts don't like him.

Another scouts report:

- Either way, the Mets, were the only big league team interested in Nakamura, and here's one baseball official's opinion as to why.

"Our scouts don't like him at all," the official said. "He's chubby, rotund. He doesn't look like he can catch up to a fastball. He's a mistake hitter, a guess hitter. He's like Tony Batista, but with a lot more movement in his swing than Batista ever had."


And personally, after seeing his swing, it would be hillarious watching him try to catch up to a Big Unit Slider or Fastball.

Whether he can play in the majors or not we won't know. Because this was the time for him to come at 29.

What's even funnier about this whole thing is his reason for backing out. Blaming the Mets for leaking a story on a website they don't have any control over. And rebuffing the Mets for offering to come to Japan and apologize.

He needed a reason to back out and the Mets gave him a reason.

And let's be realistic comparing a GM for a salary dump, and signing a Japanese player isn't even a comparsion.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: BuffaloHeadPresident | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 6:25 PM ]

So because he can't hit a Randy Johnson slider he's not fit to play in MLB?

So essentially, your definition of players fit to play in MLB is... Barry Bonds and no one else?

Nakamura's just being overly humble in that quote. It's the same thing as "I thank Jesus for my home run" you hear all the time.

Furthermore, I suggest you read up a bit on Japanese etiquette and customs if you really think he was trying to back out.

IF he got cold feet (and a big if), it's more due to his wife and kids than any actual doubting of his abilities.

And I could do a better job than Allard Baird or Syd Thrift (although he's gone now)... probably Kenny Williams, too .
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 23, 2002 8:57 PM | HT Fan ]

- Either way, the Mets, were the only big league team interested in Nakamura, and here's one baseball official's opinion as to why.

- "Our scouts don't like him at all," the official said. "He's chubby, rotund. He doesn't look like he can catch up to a fastball. He's a mistake hitter, a guess hitter. He's like Tony Batista, but with a lot more movement in his swing than Batista ever had."


That's really useful, an anonymous source quoting an anonymous source. Give it a rest, Brent.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 12:35 AM ]

- That's really useful, an anonymous source quoting an anonymous source. Give it a rest, Brent.

Well what do you expect him to say. "I'm a scout for the Mariners and we don't like the guy." No you give it a rest. It's kinda strange I can't find a quote from a scout saying otherwise. The mere fact that no one was interested leads you to believe this was the thinking around baseball. I mean, the Rockies need a 3B and any one with power could succeed there. But NO CALL.

And Buffalo, I think you are being a little more confident in his abilities than even he has. I take it that is because you are a Buffaloes fan.

Find me another reason why no other teams were interested. Besides the "GM's are stupid" quote.

Face it, the guy probably wouldn't cut it in the majors. And its a good thing he realized he was fooling himself.

What better way to get out of an agreement than to say the other party broke it first? Even though no Mets' official was quoted as saying they reached an agreement with him. Either that or maybe he was scared of playing second fiddle to Matsui AGAIN.
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 8:39 AM | HT Fan ]

- It's kinda strange I can't find a quote from a scout saying otherwise.

That quote from Art Howe wasn't good enough for you? How about this passage from Newsday?

- Mets officials were impressed not only with Nakamura's power numbers but with his attitude. One described him as a "hard-nosed, roll-in-the-mud" kind of player. Matsui is an idol in Japan, immensely more popular than any other player, but Nakamura is admired for his aggressiveness and more flamboyant style. He hit two long home runs against a major-league all-star team last month and made an impression on the Mets' Art Howe, who managed the major-league club.

- Although the Mets believe he can adjust to the better-quality fastballs he will see in the majors, some
[not all] scouts are leery of his free-swinging approach. One American League scout described Nakamura as "a mistake-hitter" and wondered if he would get those same mistakes here. The Mets don't share those concerns.

How many scouts predicted Ichiro's success? Not many. How many scouts thought David Eckstein would make it as a big league shortstop? Almost none. Scouts are not infallible, and the fact that a few had doubts about Nakamura doesn't prove a thing. Recent sabermetric studies suggest the level of play in Japan is between AAA and MLB, leaning much closer to the majors. Looking at Nori's production, I find it amusing that you're so certain he wouldn't cut it in the majors using a couple of quotes and citing a lack of interest in a terrible free agent market. How many offers did Maddux receive? Pudge has received only one offer to date for crying out loud. Teams aren't spending like they did two years ago.

Nakamura was largely an unknown. The Mets were the only team that had the need, familiarity, and budget to make him an offer.

- I mean, the Rockies need a 3B and any one with power could succeed there.

The Rockies are trying desperately to CUT payroll -- as are the majority of MLB teams.

- But NO CALL.

How do you know there were no calls? The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs were rumored to be interested in Nakamura. No meetings doesn't mean there were no inquiries. News flash: Not every conversation a GM has ends up in the newspapers.

- Find me another reason why no other teams were interested.

How about needs and economics?
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 12:34 PM ]

As pointed out by many other posts on this topic, there are many other reasons (money, culture) for him to not take the Mets offer than lack of confidence. I don't think you can take his own words about major league being tough and all at face value. (So what if he doesn't think he can be an elite player in the majors, most of us here thinks he can be a 20 HR, .270 avg. guy from 3B, which doesn't make him elite, but makes him good enough.)

1908 pointed out that there are both positive and negative scouting reports, which is especially true before the signing/unsigning. The bad quotes from scouts started to come in bunches once he turned the Mets down, and that seems like sour grape to me. Plus, it's easy for writers to portray the scouting reports however they want. When you know 30 different scouts, all you have to do is pick out the quotes you need for the message you're trying to send in your story.

I've always believed more in sabermetrics than scouts. While I'm not a professional baseball player, some of the things scouts say just don't make sense... It takes 0.13 seconds for a 140 km/h (NPB avg.) fastball to travel 18 metres, while a 150 km/h (MLB avg.) fastball takes 0.12 seconds. Nakamura's elaborate swing preparation takes a lot longer than 0.01 seconds to complete. It seems to me that if he can't catch up to a 150 km/h fastball "because of his swing," then he can't catch up to a 140 km/h fastball either. The point is that whatever Nakamura (or Ochiai for that matter) does before he actually starts to swing has nothing to do with the length of it.

The reports for Ichiro were just as bad, probably for the same reason. Imagine if Sadaharu Oh wanted to come over and the scouting reports he would've gotten...
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 25, 2002 7:17 AM ]

I must've been drunk while doing these calculations... Forgot about the unit conversion...
140 km/h = 38.9 m/s => 0.46 s to travel 18 m
150 km/h = 41.7 m/s => 0.43 s to travel 18 m
So it's a 0.03 s difference instead of 0.01 s, it doesn't change my point, but should set the record straight...
Re: Nakamara signs with METS!
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 12:41 PM | HT Fan ]

One more thing...

- Well what do you expect him to say. "I'm a scout for the Mariners and we don't like the guy."

No, but the anonymous nature of the quotes you've mentioned make it difficult to determine how many scouts feel this way. We could be reading the same two scouts' opinions over and over again without knowing it.
Re: Nakamara backs out
[ Author: Guest: max | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 6:52 AM ]

I believe Nakamurasan would have been a good MLB player.

Two explanations offered - one is fear of failure and the other is taking offense at a posting on a board - not one controlled by the Mets - a board referring to his signing.

Each explanation is sad. It is sad that he does not have such confidence in his ability. It is sad that he does not have the intelligence and honor to appreciate that the Mets did not control the statement that troubled him.

Nakamura has dishonored himself by agreeing and then seeking an excuse to back out. It is a shame.
Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Cub Fan | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 2:16 AM ]

Norihiro Nakamura has decided to stay in Japan. He liked the idea of earning $6 million a year for five years in Japan better than dangering the waters of the Pacific and signing with the New York Mets for $7 million for two years. The link where I got this information is posted below. Thank you.

[Link - ESPN]
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 12:17 PM ]

- How about needs and economics?

Given the fact he only wanted $3 million, which is cheap. This is not a good excuse. Secondly, by "needs" you mean to tell me no one needed a 3B, 1B, or DH? Give me a break. I remember an article saying teams had interest but nothing where AZ, Cubs, or LA said so. He visited Lasorda and he told him to stay in Japan. Probably to spare him the embarassment.

And since when is Art Howe a scout? And like I said the Mets were the only ones who wanted him.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 3:37 PM | HT Fan ]

- Given the fact he only wanted $3 million, which is cheap. This is not a good excuse.

$3.5 million is not cheap in today's market for an unproven player. Former NL MVP Jeff Kent could only manage $18.2 million over two years -- with a large chunk of that deferred.

- Secondly, by "needs" you mean to tell me no one needed a 3B, 1B, or DH? Give me a break.

What makes you think Nori would've been willing to change positions? He was already faced with a severe pay cut. A better question would be: How many teams needed a 3B and could afford to add payroll? Not including the Mets, I count two so far, the Phillies and the Giants. Some teams -- like the Diamondbacks -- would've had to make a trade to make room for Nakamura (difficult considering Matt Williams' no-trade clause and ridiculous 2003 salary); others -- like the Rockies -- had a need but couldn't afford to add until they subtracted (and nobody wants Neagel's contract).

- I remember an article saying teams had interest but nothing where AZ, Cubs, or LA said so.

Sift through the archives at BaseballGuru.com. Can you back me up here, Gary?

- He visited Lasorda and he told him to stay in Japan. Probably to spare him the embarrassment.

Useless speculation.

- And since when is Art Howe a scout?

Now you're just nitpicking. Are you honestly suggesting that Howe isn't qualified to evaluate talent?

- And like I said the Mets were the only ones who wanted him.

And like I said, the Mets were the only team that needed him, were very familiar with him, and could afford to take a $7 million chance.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Guest: Gary Garland | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 12:53 PM ]

Well, I hate to say this, but while Nakamura has indeed been a fine player in Japan, I had my doubts about him in MLB, too. I think the argument that he couldn't catch up with Randy Johnson and his ilk is entirely specious. If MLB batters were able to catch up with Johnson on a regular basis, Randy wouldn't be headed to the Hall of Fame. However, I do believe that there are horses for courses and Nakamura's style, and yes, he is a mistake hitter, suits the Japanese game while it doesn't over the long run make itself amenable to MLB.

Tuffy is the same way. If you look at the way Tuffy's run production badly tailed off in the second half of this past season, one can see where he may not be all that suitable for MLB. However, players such as Hiroki Kokubo, Little Matsui, Michihiro Ogasawara, Cabrera, and Petagine would hit and do it A LOT in MLB (well, Kokubo would be solid, .270 with 20-30 homers and sturdy defense).

On the other hand, though, you had guys such as Mike Hargrove, who said that Ichiro would have trouble catching on as a fifth outfielder. Scouting, unfortunately, is a rather inexact endeavor. Baseball history is littered with the memories of "can't miss" prospects who ended up pumping gas as a civilian after 3-4 years, if that. Look at what Drew Henson is going through now. A lot of judging players for me is just sheer gut instinct. I saw footage of Ichiro on a Japanese baseball show in 1994 and immediately recognized that he was a star just from watching footage of ONE at bat. But then again, I've been wrong. I thought Komiyama would be a Hasegawa-style middle reliever for NY, but he got lit up. He turned out to be a "Four-A" guy in MLB.

Anyway, in Nori's defense, even if I believe he did indeed get cold feet and just used the etiquette thing largely as an excuse, is that the Mets are a mess. They have zero chance of contending in 2003. Nori also has three small daughters and bringing them from a relatively cocooned Osaka to the USA's most chaotic and one of its most dangerous cities is daunting indeed. Not to mention that Nakamura would be making more than double the cash at home than in NY. Given all that, there really was no reason for him to even think about going to the Mets.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 24, 2002 10:41 PM | HT Fan ]

- A lot of judging players for me is just sheer gut instinct.

I can respect that but, like Dusanh-san, I prefer sabermetrics to scouts, and Nakamura has out hit Kokubo, K. Matsui, and Ogasawara over the past three years.

This is a hot topic in MLB circles as well. The Sporting News' resident baseball expert, Ken Rosenthal, recently wrote an article on the subject that's well worth checking out.

Are instincts or stats more valuable?
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Guest: Brent | Posted: Dec 27, 2002 6:56 AM ]

Like I said, the "Needs" argument or the "willing to change positions" argument holds no water. The mere fact that there were no articles or anything stating that other teams even called the guy proves many teams had doubts about his ability to succeed in MLB. It was more of a risk for the Mets more so than it was for Nakamura.

Again, I have yet to read where a scout or official from another team other than the Mets said he would succeed in the Majors.

Why were the Mets interested? They are known for panic moves. What did you expect Art Howe to say? "I have doubts he can play here?" I also read an article recently where Mets officals were very skeptical about going after him.

Nakamura should enjoy playing in the Japanese Leagues because at 29 I doubt he will play in the Majors for other than rookie mini.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 27, 2002 12:31 PM | HT Fan ]

No need to repeat yourself yet again, Brent. I understand your stance and disagree with it. Unless you have any new points, I see no reason to rehash my previous statements. This exchange has probably run its course, anyway.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: InterestedAmericanObserver | Posted: Dec 28, 2002 4:46 PM ]

As a Met fan, I watched this situation unfold very closely. Two things from it bug me:
  1. Art Howe changed his opinion about Nakamura very quickly. At first, as some have pointed out, he said he doubted Nakamura's game. He then pulled a 180 and said he had potential. I see this 180 as pressure from the Front Office to approve of the move, which looked like a guarantee at the time.
  2. Nakamura's excuse. Not that I dont think it is a bad one, I just don't believe it's valid. I mean, in the end it doesn't really matter for him specifically, as he is staying with Kintetsu, but I fear whatever he feared will come to scare other top Japanese players when given the opportunity to sign with the Boys from Flushing.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 29, 2002 1:24 AM ]

I don't think he necessarily had more fear (and/or desire to compete at the highest level) than anyone else who's crossed the Pacific. The difference is, this time the contract offers just weren't worth it. As I've posted in another thread, he was offered half what Matsui is getting. Looking at their numbers and position alone, that just doesn't make sense. I think the difference is two fold:
  1. Matsui has been talking about crossing over for a long time so he's better known here than Nakamura already.
  2. Matsui has a more "American" swing, so naturally scouts have less bones to pick with him. Nakamura has an elaborate preparation before his swing that American scouts are not used to seeing, so I wouldn't be surprised that a number of them made conclusions based on: "hey, that's not going to work because I've never seen anything like it."

So Nakamura didn't take $7 million instead of $30 million out of spite. What's wrong with that?

I agree that his excuse didn't make a whole lot of sense, but then I'm not a Japanese businessman. I don't know the unwritten rules in their business practice.

Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Guest: notagm | Posted: Dec 29, 2002 3:07 AM ]

The length of the contract was relatively short - so money was not the issue. In my opinion Nakamura got scared. Whether it was self inflicted or advice from his coaches, friends, confidants etc. As an athlete, one wants to compete at the highest level possible, and this man will never know what he is capable of.

Very, very sad!!
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 29, 2002 10:18 AM ]

I'll agree with you that he might never know what he is capable of, as far as playing in MLB is concerned. I would've also liked to see what he could have done in MLB. However, I don't know where you get the idea that a short contract somehow makes it better. These are guaranteed contracts we're talking about. You're promised the amount whether you get injured, have a bad year, etc... Players usually prefer long contracts, unless we're talking about Michael Jordan. Even if you look at the value on a per year basis, it's still a significant $3.5 million vs. $5 million (assuming his Japanese contract is for 6 years) difference.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: CFiJ | Posted: Dec 29, 2002 6:08 AM ]

Look, in general you can't take anything said in a Japanese newspaper at face value. I seriously doubt that the Mets putting the story up in "News" section of their official site was the reason that Nakamura went back to Kintetsu. I do believe, though, that it caused him a great deal of personal embarrassment, and I imagine that embarrassment was a factor. His Japanese agent suggested there had been some communication break-downs between the Mets, Nakamura's American agent, and his Japanese agent. The night the story broke, Nakamura received an angry call from Hoshino about the story being up on the official webpage, just as Nakamura was on his way to meet Nashida for dinner and to break the news. I think Nashida convinced him to stay when they met that night. He caught Nakamura at just the right time: Nakamura was having doubts about the way the Mets did things, I'm fairly sure he was a bit anxious about the idea of living and working in a foreign country. (I think just about everyone whose gone to live and work in a foreign country experienced some doubts or reservations about it before they went, particularly if they didn't speak the language.) In the end, I think Nakamura chose to take the more money and the more accustomed Japanese lifestyle. I seriously doubt it had anything to do with fears that he wouldn't succeed.
Re: Nakamura Signs With Kintetsu Buffaloes
[ Author: seiyu | Posted: Jan 4, 2003 3:52 AM ]

I agree. I think Nakamura and his agent basically screwed the pooch. It was an embarassing moment for a Japanese person in an international scene.
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