Nippon Ham - Inter-League Magic 2

The Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters are just two wins away from clinching the 2007 Inter-League play. Going into tonight's (June 20) game, the Fighters are sitting on top of the Inter-League standings with 15 wins, two more than the Giants' 13, and three more than Lotte's and Orix' 12 (but Orix has one less game to play and cannot better the Fighers).

Here are the top three team possibilities:

          Fighters     Giants      Marines
    Wins  Rec   W%    Rec   W%    Rec   W%
     17   2-2  .739   4-0  .708
     16   1-3  .696   3-1  .667   4-0  .652
     15   0-4  .652   2-2  .625   3-1  .652

As you can see, if the Fighters win two games, they'll be guaranteed the most wins and have a better winning percentage than the Giants to take first place. Here are the remaining matchings for these teams:

    Team       6/20   21   22   23   24   25   26
    Fighters    HC    --   --   HT   HT   --   YBS
    Giants     CLM    --   --   SL   SL   --  TRGE
    Marines     YG    --  YBS  TYS  TYS   --   --

So it looks like the Marines or the Giants could well be virtually eliminated after this evening's game. If I were broadcasting tonight (sorry, I can't - expecting company this evening) then this would be the game to do. However, you can listen to the game in Japanese on the Giants Pride Nighter [Radio Nippon] starting at 6:00pm JST. It's do or die for both teams.

I'd like to remind everyone about how the standings for Inter-League work this year. The team with the most wins takes the Inter-League championship. Because of this, if Nippon Ham wins tonight, and the Giants and Lotte tie their game, Nippon Ham will clench, as neither the Giants nor Marines can reach 16 wins.

If two teams are tied with the most wins at the conclusion of Inter-League play, then the winning percentage is used. Whereas a tie would hurt both the Giants and Marines tonight, having tied one game earlier in Inter-League play gives the Fighters a better winning percentage should the Fighters and Giants end with the same number of wins (assuming no more ties). Winning percentage-wise, the Fighters hold an advantage over the Giants (by losing fewer games).

Finally, if the Fighters and Marines end with the same number of wins and winning percentage, then it's the Marines who will take the Inter-League championship. This is because the third distinguisher is the standings from the previous year's Inter-League play. Lotte took 1st in 2006 Inter-League, Nippon Ham placed 7th, and the Giants finished in 11th. So Lotte can't afford to lose, but still have an outside shot at all the marbles. (Note, this is why Orix has been eliminated, despite having the same number of wins as Lotte currently.)

Primary source: Nikkan Sports, June 20, 2007 paper edition.