Hanshin Tigers 2010 Preview

Mayumi's first year as manager was a bit of a dog's dinner and Tigers fourth place finish was warranted. Unfortunately, this has raised expectations among the faithful. After all both Hoshino and Okada's teams finished fourth before delivering pennants. However, this year there are certain factors which indicate that this is not a likely outcome - lack of starting pitching for one thing. The loss of Akahoshi will also leave a big hole to fill. The coaching team has remained the same despite the addition of Kataoka and unless they have gained a sense of desperation we are due to be treated to the same as last year. Old players past their sell-by date being paraded instead of young up and coming stars.

Batting lineup

Here we find an interesting situation. Despite the evidence of his decline Kanemoto will be back at fourth. However, he needs to be more consistent and not to slump mid-season. The addition of Johjima is also a plus point as he will add runs to the side and some power. Craig Brazell is back and we can expect some fine hitting from him. Toritani continued his excellent performance of the previous year and has now made the No. 3 slot his. He is also the team leader but for a realistic title hope he needs to be driving in 100 RBIs. Arai (batting five) needs to do the same - his production has been a bit disappointing though 2009 was a better season for him. Good supporting performances from Sekimoto, the reborn Asai, Sakurai and Lin are also all a necessity. Tigers other foreign signing Murton is likely to play centre and bat No. 1 (at least on the strength of the Open Sen). This maybe a mistake as, despite having excellent plate discipline, his power is probably wasted in the No. 1 slot. It would be better to use Hirano who did very well at the end of the previous season in the role. Hirano can also play practically anywhere on the field, a very useful attribute to have and one which should be exploited. One also hopes to see more of Kanoh in place of the fading Yano. Of the new players we are likely to see Fujikawa, Nohara, Yamato and Tagami. Hiyama will continue in the pinch hitter role backed up by Mitsunobu Takahashi and Katsuragi. This is a nice strong group with an ability to hit at the vital moments.

Pitching

This is Tigers problem area. Getting the pitching mix exactly right is the key to their pennant chances. If they fail in this - all the batting in the world will mean nothing. A too great a reliance on the old veterans have left the rotation with a mixture of pitchers on the downward curve and youngsters with no match experience. Shimoyanagi will return despite the fact that he is clearly fading. His control has gone and for a control pitcher like him this is a big problem. Never an innings eater he is probably going to struggle to complete his normal five or six innings by mid-season. Andoh has added a changeup to his repertoire but needs to produce a much better performance than last year. However, the pairing with Johjima should produce an improvement. Nohmi will return and one hopes that he continues his performance of last year. Kubo will return and he is perhaps Tigers best pitcher - crafty and intelligent he will need to be at his best. Tigers have retained both Fukuhara (who could have been let go) and Sugiyama. As long as this pair stay in the farm team chances of a pennant are increased. Of the younger pitchers, Iwata is vital but he is currently struggling with injury and one cannot count on him being fit for the whole season. Uezono has not been pitching well which leaves, Cheng and Kojima. The re-emergence of Kojima is wonderful even though it was probably due more to desperation but he has the potential that Nohmi had. 2010 should be Cheng's breakout year as long as the coaches do not mess up like they did last year. Of note and potentially a replacement for the over the hill Shimoyanagi is Tigers 2009 No. 1 draft pick, Futagami. What he has been producing pre-season has looked very promising and one hopes he can repeat it in full match situations. The final possibility for a starter is the US free agent Fossom. It will be interesting to see if he can adjust to Japanese pitching conditions.

The bullpen is looking strong - Tsutsui has turned into a fine closer and Messenger should be a very useful addition. Nishimura looks promising and Watanabe has also been pitching well. The big plus is the abandonment of the idea of Kubota as closer. Given the relative rest he got last year, we should see the return of a revitalised Kubota able to pitch set up and closer. We should also see more of Abe as well. However, Tigers are going to need to rely on Egusa a lot to provide variety and anchor the set up. He will have to pitch well throughout the season and will need adequate backup so that he doesn't tire like he did last season. Fujikawa should return as closer but needs to add more variety to his pitching as he has been a bit one dimensional of late. He needs to pitch intelligently and not get swallowed up by his own myth. The loss of Atchison was a huge blow and Williams not so much. Still the bullpen is strong enough to pull the side's chestnuts out of the fire as it used to do.

Catching

The addition of Johjima can only be described as a plus for Tigers. His arm is the strongest in Japan and he is an intelligent and perceptive catcher. Unfortunately he is being seen as Tigers saviour which may be a bit too much to expect. Backup should be the superlative Kanoh but unfortunately is more likely to be the fading and lazy Yano. Yano has value in a coaching role but not really in a catching role and his base running over the past two seasons has been a disgrace.

Trades and free agencies

Tigers were able to get rid of some dead wood in the close season. Imaoka was finally set loose and Fujimoto went. Williams was also let go. Picking up Johjima was a plus and very impressive as Johjima went against his mentor (Oh) to join Tigers. Also picked up were Messenger, Murton and Fossom all of whom should contribute. Tigers have demonstrated good ability to pick foreign pitchers but not such good luck with their batters. Recently, their successful foreign batters have all played for other teams (Arias - BlueWave, Sheets - Carp, Brazell - Lions). This situation does not fill one with confidence about Murton and indeed he has not been allocated his own personal hitting march by the oendan. Still, he was recommended by Johjima so maybe he will be an exception.

Prospects

If Tigers starting lineup fires then they will be a contender but this is a big if. They have failed to bring their younger pitchers on and now need them all to come good at the same time with no margin for error. Kanemoto at No. 4 is also a concern - really it is time to abandon the consecutive innings record for good. It's affecting the team's performance. Of course, a lot depends on Mayumi. Last year he made a lot of noises about bringing in young players only to use the old stars. This failed and his management style was rather like a deer caught in the headlights. Unsure and unable, blundering from mistake to mistake, Mayumi was a perfect example for the argument of not appointing Old Boys as managers. This year he has also been making noises about youth but this time seems to be having more impact. Still, one has to express scepticism that he will improve as a manager. His relationship with Johjima will also be essential and Mayumi is known to be strange. So far they seem to be getting on well and one can only hope that this bodes well for the future. This team has a lot potential it but needs to be released.