Season delayed

It ticked me off to be honest. Let's not forget that for years the Pacific League used to start its season a week before the Central League.

Inept? Two stadiums are still being restored to playing level in the PL. What is inept about that? Also asking the Eagles to play while many of those in and around Sendai do no know where their families are is a concern, no? Yes, lets play baseball with irradiated equipment why don't we?

The CL wanted to start early for only one reason, money. They were shamed into doing the right thing by the players and the government. The CL leadership, that is the YGs, are despicable.

CL games can wait for this nation to recover from the quake, the tsunami and the nuclear plant meltdown first.

It strikes me that all that is needed is six stadiums. Given that there are more than that number of professional baseball level stadiums in Japan and many of those are outside the danger zone then moving the games to a different stadium would be a logical response.

Restoring a normal atmosphere and gving people something to take their mind off the disaster is also important. Being able to forget your worries even for three hours helps the recovery process. Furthermore, if you use the games to generate income for the earthquake recovery you can also help in that way. What does delay a recovery is waiting and and putting off the normalisation process.

We all love baseball. But no one should be deluded into thinking a game with a bat and a ball will affect the suffering of those in Sendai. That trite piece of weak rhetoric is what the CL idiots used as well initially, when indeed it was all about their greed and lack of shame. Fortunately the government and the players set them back on their heels.

Japan is experiencing a major disaster, that is still ongoing due to the meltdown issues. Baseball is way down on the list of priorities at the moment. Waiting later to start baseball is the moral thing to do.

I do see your point but the important thing is to get things as near normal as possible as quickly as possible. This aids the mental recovery process by injecting stability into peoples lives. After such a disaster and with all the problems that people have at the moment a bit of stability is desperately needed. This is where sport comes into play - it takes peoples minds off their current situation and provides an escape. This is important for the recovery process. Of course, playing baseball will not solve the very real issues for the survivors of the earthquake and tsunami but it will help the mental recovery process. You can liken it to the situation in the UK during wartime where bombed shops would reopen despite being damaged. Stability and normality were important and still are.
I agree that financial considerations probably played a part in the Central League's wish to open the season on time but they were correct. What are the players doing at the moment? They are playing practice games so what's the difference? The whole situation could have been handled better with the start of the baseball season providing a unifying point for the whole country rather like the Yankees did after 9/11 for New York. Instead the Pacific League heads went off half cocked and delayed their season. What could have been a great rallying gesture was thrown away by petty resentments and a desire to trump the Central League. The attitude is rather similar to the approach that if one suffers then all must suffer. I rather prefer the approach that if someone is suffering we should all do what we can to help end that suffering as quickly as possible and that every little helps.

The image of Nero playing the violin while Rome burned suddenly came to mind while reading your last post.

30 million people in the Tokyo area still do not know if they are going to endure nuclear rain or if their food and water will poison them. You think baseball will fix that?

The same amount of baseball is planned to be played this year so stop complaining. Once people are safe then can enjoy diversions.

The PL decision was the best for baseball and the best for the nation. The CL leaders, ever the greedy idiots, had to be dragged to do the right thing.

I'm still not seeing greed as the Central League's motivation in starting the season on time. Too many people fled Tokyo, and many still have not returned. That's not going to do anything for them. The hikes in kw/h electric rates to run Tokyo Dome will also cut the big club's income. And watching TV, the only advertisements are currently AC (Ad Council) public service propaganda. Starting the season now will not see any profits from televised games. And just to light up Tokyo Dome for a night game will cut at least 6,000 homes' power, so their TV audience will also be cut off.

No. It doesn't take much thought to realize that money couldn't be a motivator for starting the season on time. The later the start, the more likely money can be made. But not in the current atmosphere.

I attribute the Central League's desire to go with the current schedule to laziness. The owners can rarely work together to get anything done as it is, so to have to remake the schedule will be that much more arguing and work that they'd rather not do. The dinosaurs in charge of the CL can't move very fast, so they'd rather not move at all.

I think that the Pacific League's initial reaction was the right one. They saw a huge disaster with possibly two stadiums out of order. They knew that it would take time to resolve the numerous problems facing them, so they allotted a month to come up with solutions before the start of the season. They haven't been sitting on their haunches. Other than being dragged into the CL squabbles, they've been working on getting stadiums in shape and rearranging the schedule as best they can, focusing on optimizing travel time to alternative stadiums where needed.

The Giants' owner was griping about how everyone thought the Pacific League was so virtuous and the Giants evil. While I think that that's a fairly good generalization as a whole, in the whole handling of this situation, I think it boils down more to The PL thought smart about it while the CL, led by the Giants, tried to ignore the situation everyone is in as best they could. No need for good vs. evil here. It's smart vs. lazy.

I would disagree that the Pacific League thought smart - they have given plenty of evidence that the opposite is true over the years. They got their move in first and seemed to be doing something whilst actually not doing anything. We have to be as cynical about the Pacific League's motives as much as we are about the Central League's motives. Part of what drives the Pacific League is a resentment of the Central League's popularity and this also, I suspect, played a part in the decision. I am afraid I am with the Giants owner on this - his gripes have a foundation in fact. As I have mentioned before the counter-intuitive move of playing games as soon as possible is actually something which will aid recovery. So I rather see the delayed season as a fluffed chance.
Hey zman - we're not that bad off in Tokyo. But no of course baseball won't fix things. What it will do is help restore the sense of normality that is missing now and to help people move forward by getting back to their normal lives. The sooner things start getting back to normal, the better. To be honest I wouldn't mind if the season is reduced in length though - blogging 144 games takes a lot of effort.

I'm sorry, but while the Giants' owner may have a backup generator to keep his wine cellar cool in the event of a blackout due to Tokyo Dome sucking the electricity grid dry, I would rather not be in one of the homes that has to suffer through a blackout because he's so mule headed to adjusting power consumption like the rest of us. He needed a school child scolding and got one. Now he's clammed up tight so as not to make any more brain farts and alienate the general public further.

I would love to be as cynical about the Pacific League teams, but I haven't seen any evidence of such a need. How has their resentment of the CL's popularity led to them doing something evil? What is it, specifically, that they're guilty of? Over estimating the time it would take to get everyone back on their feet? Evaluating the situation at this point, 2+ weeks after the quake, it looks like the 12th may have been a little more than needed. But I don't see that as undermining anybody. I see it as playing it safe, a wise thing to do.

People are not yet interested in staying out late for entertainment. Even two weeks after the quake, people where I live remember having a very long walk home from Tokyo on the 11th and are returning home early. People are leaving work at 5:30 in record numbers compared to before the quake as they want to make sure they can get home. Parts of Chiba, especially around Makuhari Messe, didn't even have basic utilities until last week. No. Starting the season on time in the Kanto area would have been a disastrous idea. Not because the Central League is any more evil than the Pacific League, but because people weren't ready.

You want inspiration from baseball, let Koshien have the spotlight. They're our future. They deserve to shine alone outside of the shadow of the NPB. And they're doing it without inconveniencing anybody. This is good.

I'm not thinking about the Giants playing in Tokyo Dome - they could move further south to save electricity. In fact all of NPB could have played their games in West Japan - what are all these big stadiums in country areas which are barely used for? They could have even played night games with extra innings - that is the absurdity of the situation. The facilities and power all exist in abundance. If the Koshien Spring Tournament can go ahead so can NPB and if it was desired they could play day games. The argument that the season should be delayed is blown out of the water by the playing of Koshien. If this event can prove an inspirational example then so can the start of the pro-season.
The problem was the Pacific League was that it acted in a negative way not a positive way. It will work but it is a missed chance for an important rallying exercise and it lets TEPCO get away with their incomptence for a while longer. Furthermore I would not underestimate the ability of the average NPB owner to hold onto his petty resentments even in a crisis and exercise them. They saw a chance to get one up and they took it. You mustn't let your prejudice against the Giants blind you and once again I refer you to the Yankees after 9/11. You are also wrong about people not being interested in entertainment - there is a desperate desire for it. Shibuya where I live is full of people wanting to eat out and drink, Shinjuku as well - people want to forget the situation and the more chance of that they have the better things will be. Pro baseball had a chance to shape the public mood earlier but missed it. They will have another chance on April 12 - let's hope the Pacific League doesn't blow it again.

I fear that you are not making your point clear. You sound more like the spin doctors of the U.S. media than someone disciplined in science. Maybe that's why I don't feel that there's any real communication going on here.

You said,

I'm not thinking about the Giants playing in Tokyo Dome - they could move further south to save electricity. In fact all of NPB could have played their games in West Japan - what are all these big stadiums in country areas which are barely used for?

Yes, they could have. That's very good spin, avoiding what was actually said and proposing a rational "what if" scenario that would be acceptable. The problem is that there was no hint of doing that from any of the Central League owners after their numerous meetings. The Giants' owner went so far as to say that Tokyo Dome doesn't use that much more electricity when it's in use than when it's not, due to the need to keep it pressurized. Yakult only talked about possibly moving to Yokohama if they couldn't make a deal with the universities about day games. Yokohama is still well within TEPCO's borders. If a Kanto based Central League owner even thought of going outside of the area, please tell me about such a report. I haven't seen any such hint.

It was the Pacific League owners who actually did talk about moving to western Japan. Rakuten was considering moving their home to the former Green Stadium Kobe for as long as necessary. SoftBank invited Lotte to call Fukuoka home if needed in the spirit of cooperation. Seibu has experimented with their half dome and found that they may have to move out if the weather is just cloudy.

There is lots of evidence that the Pacific League has been making contingency plans to move out of the Kanto and Tohoku regions if necessary. Please provide me with just one article that says the same about any Kanto based Central League team.

Then you say,

If the Koshien Spring Tournament can go ahead so can NPB and if it was desired they could play day games. The argument that the season should be delayed is blown out of the water by the playing of Koshien. If this event can prove an inspirational example then so can the start of the pro-season.

There are numerous attributes between the two events, Koshien and NPB's Opening Day, that are so extremely different that you're making what's known as an "apples to oranges" comparison. But whereas you will make a statement like that and say nothing more, I'll elaborate as to why I think the comparison doesn't work.

First and foremost, the Koshien Spring Tournament is run by a single governing body. This body has to weigh what is best for both the tournament and the participants. NPB, on the other hand, has a figurehead commissioner with no power because the individual team owners like to play lord over their kingdoms. As you say yourself, they hold petty resentments against the other owners and will work to undermine the other teams at the cost of the league as a whole.

Because these two organizations are so different in their makeup, coherent vs. antagonistic, the coherent body is capable of coming to a consensus in a short amount of time while the antagonistic owners of NPB require more time to come together, and even then, don't necessarily act for what is best for the league as a whole. (Note, all evidence based on the actions of the Pacific League owners suggest that they are more capable of working together to the benefit the league than their Central League counterparts. Pacific League Marketing is but one example of how the teams cooperate to promote the league. Granted, that venture is not a utopian pillar of cooperation, but it does show that the owners are capable of getting together to promote the league as a whole. Can you show me a similar example of cooperation between all six of the Central League teams?)

Secondly, Koshien, as you point out, is outside the power shortage area. Half of the NPB teams are not. For Koshien to go on did not require a rescheduling of either game times or venues. Even ignoring the Central League's Kanto based teams' inability to even think of moving outside of the area or reduce power consumption, given the owners' inability to work together for the good of the league (explained in detail above), do you really think that approximately 180 games could have been rescheduled in the less than two weeks between the earthquake and the start of the season? I'm sorry, but I have seen no evidence that the owners are capable of doing any such thing. And please don't dismiss this with another "what if" statement. If you think such grand cooperation would have been possible, I'd like to know how and why. Without examples of past extraordinary deeds by the owners, I'm afraid that you will not convince me that it could have been done.

I don't even know where to being with this:

The problem was [sic] the Pacific League was that it acted in a negative way not a positive way. It will work but it is a missed chance for an important rallying exercise and it lets TEPCO get away with their incomptence for a while longer.

What was negative about the way the Pacific League acted? As I stated before, the Pacific League saw a huge problem in front of them and allocated a month to study it, discuss it, and come up with a solution. That's intelligent! What exactly is negative about approaching a problem with thought? I'm much more impressed when people think about a problem rather than just try to ignore it (as all evidence suggests the Central League owners did - I welcome evidence to the contrary).

And you appear to be trying to tie the Pacific League's solution to TEPCO's "incompetence." What incompetence in particular are you referring to? Only making their nuclear reactors stable for the largest earthquake that had ever hit Japan in history before this? Having back up power generators where they could be taken out by a fluke tidal wave? TEPCO failed to foresee an event for which there was no precedent. (Yes, it would have been nice if they'd had continued playing the "what if" game a little more.) So are you saying that the Pacific League should have had the foresight to have back up stadiums available and worked into the schedule a year in advance? I don't understand what you're saying here.

Here's another doosie:

Furthermore I would not underestimate the ability of the average NPB owner to hold onto his petty resentments even in a crisis and exercise them. They saw a chance to get one up and they took it.

Okay. How exactly has one of these petty resentments materialized in this crisis? What, exactly, did the Pacific League take, and how was it resentful? As I've stated, I think what the Pacific League did was intelligent. So I need to understand how it was not. I've backed up everything that I've said with the reasons that I believe the things I do. You're welcome to refute my evidence, but please provide some other evidence to counter. Your statements are vague at best and misleading at worst.

I must grant you this, I don't doubt that the NPB owners hold petty resentments. In fact, I can give you plenty of examples of how the Chunichi Dragons have been trying to undermine Inter-league play for several seasons (schedule more third party stadium games for Inter-league, then cry that Inter-league attendance is lower than the average at Nagoya Dome the rest of the season). But for this crisis, I just haven't seen anybody other than the Giants' owner voice any petty grievances. And he was more upset with the press than any other teams.

You do have some good advice:

You mustn't let your prejudice against the Giants blind you and once again I refer you to the Yankees after 9/11.

Alright. I promise not to. I shall back up everything I say with examples, as I believe that I have. Could you please do the same?

Here's your best point:

You are also wrong about people not being interested in entertainment - there is a desperate desire for it. Shibuya where I live is full of people wanting to eat out and drink, Shinjuku as well - people want to forget the situation and the more chance of that they have the better things will be.

Granted, I only head into Tokyo once every week or two, so you will most likely know the local scene better. I also don't tend to hang out with the 'Buya or Roppongi crowd. I've never been much of a partier.

One guy down the street had a 3 hour walk home from Yokohama (the Seaside Line was actually running, which helped), and the husband of one of the Kodomo-kai mothers walked home from work in Akihabara, arriving after 6:00 am on the 12th. (I'd often wondered how long it would take to walk home from Tokyo.) Several former co-workers who live in Saitama said they spent the night of the 11th at work, on the 14th floor, but didn't get much sleep.

The people I know don't live in Tokyo. They want to get out of Tokyo as quickly as possible right now to see their families. (I think that some have seen more of their families in the past couple weeks than in years of working late every night.)

Nonetheless, I can see that there may be a subset of non-flyjins looking to be entertained.

Finally,

Pro baseball had a chance to shape the public mood earlier but missed it. They will have another chance on April 12 - let's hope the Pacific League doesn't blow it again.

I humbly disagree with both the first and last parts of the above statement. As outlined above, I don't believe that the teams would have gotten their act together and moved the opener to western Japan, the "what if" scenario you suggested would have made Opening Day a possibility. And the jab that the Pacific League's thoughtful approach somehow "blew it" is uncalled for and backed up by nothing but vapor. I am willing to concede that a full month may have been too long (it looks like only Yakult still has rescheduling work as of today). But they did not make a wrong, evil, petty, or resentful decision. They made sure that they could make an informed decision once Opening Day comes.

It's a long post and with several interesting points. However, we need to clarify some interpretations of information. Note you say that Central League owners 'talked' about doing things without doing things and then you go on to mention that the Pacific League also 'talked' about things but did they actually do anything either? What is the difference? Note that the Tigers offered Rakuten the use of Koshien as well. The Central League also made plans to switch games to day games so there was some contingency planning go on. However, I fear we cannot really allocate any weight to either league's contingency plans.
Certainly 180 games could have been rescheduled - it is not as difficult as it seems. The point though about the Koshien tournament's single governing body is a red herring. Where there is a will there is a way and if the Pacific and Central Leagues wanted to agree they could have very easily. The conclusion is that they didn't and in fact there is considerable evidence that the Pacific League owners did want to go their own way whatever the Central League owners thought. Now you may interpret this as 'smartness' but the fact is they didn't exactly take a lot of time to consult. The decision was announced very rapidly wasn't it? They could have come to a mutually acceptable arrangement with the Central League if they had had the will but they didn't. Here I would disagree with you and would say that the reason for this is their desire to get a point up on the Central League. I think that we will have to agree to disagree on this point - there is ample evidence of a strong resentment of the Central League (remember the saying 'popular Central League, capable Pacific League' - I hope I've got it right which was devised by the Pacific League but indicates a level of jealousy). You say that the Pacific League now has a month to come up with a solution and how intelligent it is but I came up with a practical solution in five minutes. You could come up with a practical solution in five minutes. Getting agreement and logistics might well be difficult but coming up with a solution is no problem.
A word about shocks and disasters I'm no expert but then I do seem to know a bit more than you. After the disaster there is a shock and there is dislocation. The best way to deal with these is to get people back to a sense of normality as quickly as possible. Provide them with something solid and recognisable so that they can begin to rebuild their lives. Even in the disaster zones they are trying to reopen schools as quickly as possible so that the children can have that normality. Furthermore, if you give them diversions and escapes from reality even for a small period you also help the recovery process. People need reassurance that things can return to normal and they can forget their current circumstances. This you will find in basic psychology - mourning and grieving shouldn't be ignored but providing a path to recovery rather than leaving people stranded in their current situation is the best way to help. Sport can help in that respect and that is why I think it was a missed opportunity not to start on time.
I have no intention to link the Pacific League to TEPCO but Michael surely you can't doubt that TEPCO are an incompetent organisation. There is ample evidence of mendacity, collusion, lax safety standards, ignoring of warnings, poor design etc.. A few minutes searching on Google will provide you with all the evidence you need.
Your paragraph about entertainment is written in sneering and snobbish tone. It does not become you. The areas I mentioned are big entertainment areas for Japanese business and young people after work. You were right when you talked about people wanting to be out of Tokyo after the earthquake but now things are changing. In Tokyo people are getting back to work and the city has filled up considerably - people want to get back to their previous lives and that includes enjoying themselves. It is important to remember that life goes on and the best way to help this is to facilitate this. Whilst it might not be to your or my taste it is part of a lot of Japanese peoples' lives. A recognition of this would give your argument more validity.
No as much as I will concede that the Central League were slow to react I am not prepared to absolve the Pacific League of blame. They could have coordinated with the Central League - they didn't. It was their decision and they knew what they were doing. I've seen this tactic in business politics many times - it's not new. You seem to be talking with your opponents but you are going to steal a march on them by surprising them with a different solution. I don't believe that the Central League expected this which is why the Giants owner was so annoyed. Remember - it was the Pacific League's choice not to coordinate with the Central League.

Wow guys, too much for me to read this late evening.

First, thanks to you both for your efforts to make this website and this particular blog interesting. As I have said many times before I really appretiate the effort to report on the Tigers through the course of the season.

Some quick points, first 9-11 and this earthquake are different events entirely. As I mentioned I was in NY on 9-11 and now I am back in Japan, Kansai, for this recent disaster. 9-11 was shocking but localized and based on hijacking of planes. The slow motion nightmare that the quake, tsunami and continuing nuclear meltdown has created is still ongoing. Quakes are a daily occurence still in the Sendai area, people are still missing and radiation remains a real, if fading hopefully. threat to over 30 million people. Playing baseball in the east of Japan is ludicrious during this period. The PL did the right thing by its country while the CL, due to greed or otherwise, had to be schooled by the players and the ministry to do the right thing.

HS baseball is in one stadium in an area unaffected by the quake. It has nothing to do with professional baseball played throughout the nation and centered in the Tokyo area basically. That is so very obvious.

Christopher, will all due respect for your labors on this blog, sometimes you seem to be chasing your tail when you get caught up on issues where its pretty clear you are wrong. I recall our dialog about Okada a few years ago when he somehow kept the Tigers competitive, something you simply did not want to admit until you were finally unable to reject it any longer. Michael has taken the time to go after specifics this time regarding the baseball delay and for that he is doing you a favor, not acting beneath himself as you somewhat snidely stated.

On another topic, can anyone confirm if the Eagles are indeed going to play in Kobe while their stadium is being repaired?

It is not so clear that I am wrong. Rather you think that I am wrong and this is the difference. We are not arguing from facts but from different perspectives. I am discussing things from a psychological perspective which leads to a different interpretation of what should happen. History tends to back this approach up. Howewver, There is room for difference in what course of action should be taken which is why I wanted this discussion. However, on the matter of the Pacific League's poor behaviour I am more likely to be right. We are talking of organisational politics here and this is a field I have considerable experience in. Furthermore, I would suggest reading Michael's paragraph about entertainment again - it does not reveal a very nice set of thoughts.

I'm sorry for degenerating there at the end. I spent two hours composing that, looking things up so as not to give misleading or false information. My frustration level with your opinion based (as opposed to evidence based) arguments rose to the point where it looks like I started resorting to condescending satire. I'm sorry if that offended you. But it does not make what I said any less valid.

I'm especially sorry to see that you did exactly what I expected you to do, brush away my arguments with a few unprovable statements. Science may have been redefined in a number of the US states to include faith based arguments, but I'm an old fart who still finds value in the Scientific Method. Faith based arguments do nothing to advance science. Similarly, unprovable opinion based arguments do not bring anything useful to a debate.

I understand your opinion on a number of the issues raised here, but I cannot understand why you have reached the conclusions that you have. So many of your statements are in sharp contrast to the observed evidence. If the evidence doesn't fit the theory, it's the theory that needs to be thrown out, not the data. If your expertise is in politics, then I can see why you have that backwards. (Hey, politicians just redefine words like "science" to mean "faith" and pat themselves on the back for winning the argument. But I regress. And I feel my blood pressure starting to rise again.)

The point is, I will not debate this issue on the current terms that you are using. I've outlined the conditions that I will listen to your argument, and you ignored them. It is pointless, and no real communication is possible.

Zman - Rakuten will play their first three game series 4/15-4/17 against Orix at Koshien. The next home series will be played at Kobe (4/22 - 4/24) with the hope that the following home series is played at Kleenex Stadium.
Michael - I have a lot of respect for you and what you write. I value your comments very highly and respect your opinion. However, what you classify as evidence and what I classify as evidence does seem to differ. There is a lot of psychological research out there which supports my position. I have read it and checked it before I put it into the post but I am not going to reference it - there is a lot of it. History also provides a good guide about what can work in this sort of situation. I referenced the bombing of England during WW2 in particular. A lot of it is counter-intuitive, what people say about things or feel is the right approach is not actually the best way of going about things. I can only suggest that if you have the time you might want to take a look at some of it.
I am going to make a supposition now and I hope you will forgive me if I am wrong that you don't have much experience at the higher levels of company management. I do and I am speaking from knowledge gained in the environment as a manager and consultant. The pattern presented by the Pacific League management's behaviour is a very familiar one. There are plenty out there who will use a difficult situation to their own advantage without thinking about what might be the best course of action. I would suggest looking at Peter Drucker's work if you need another source but once again there are many relevant case studies.
I would stress this - to look at the events in the narrow area of a decision about baseball is not the right approach. There are other factors involved and these need to be given due consideration. Perhaps stepping back and passing on to different topics might be the best choice here.

Christopher,

Thanks for the Eagles game data, I will try to and go see them play next month in Kobe.

Christopher supposed that I "[...] don't have much experience at the higher levels of company management."

That would be correct. Sales and management are right up there on my list of things I enjoy as much as having root canal dental work done or working with Microsoft products. Too much in upper business management takes on the philosophies of "The Five Rings" - i.e. win at all costs. (I do enjoy reading philosophy. Nietzsche has me spell bound by how accurate his picture of today's U.S. politics are run. Although his warnings for what to look out for in persons with a "will to power" appear to have been the Republican Party's play book for the past decade plus.)

Druker is a name I'd heard before. There was something about a fictional Japanese female high school baseball team manager using his ideas. Druker's Wikipedia page sounds like he's a bottom-up thinker. I remember a retreat where management talked about how we needed to implement more grass root efforts from the technical groups, yet in practice, all of the bottom-up ideas I'd proposed were refused by management in favor of top-down projects.

I'd rather be Dilbert than a PHB. I still have a soul.

What were we talking about again? Oh, yeah. Something about phycological evidence that the Pacific League owners were somehow trying to undermine the Central League owners.

So what you're trying to say is that the Pacific League owners, attempting to win at all costs, came to a quick decision and coerced TEPCO and the government to force the Central League to agree to their terms. All the while, the Central League teams, operating under Drucker's theories, have only their customers (fans) in mind when they say they want to start on time regardless of the operating environment?

Okay. I'm doing it again. I'm jumping to absurd conclusions based on what it sounds like you're saying. I'm not pleased with my attitude either. I'm just trying to understand why you think that the Pacific League had some sort of rapacious motive in postponing the season.

You may have been able to come up with alternative plans in 5 minutes, but how practical are they? It's taken this long for Yakult to make a deal with the Toto League to play day games at Jingu. Most stadiums have bookings a year or more in advance. As was demonstrated with scheduling conflicts for Fukuoka Dome when Daiei made it to the Nippon Series back around the turn of the century, weeks are not enough lead time for scheduling changes.

Was delaying a full month from the disaster too long? I'm starting to think so. But after seeing how slow NPB usually is at making decisions - especially decisions involving change, it was actually good to see a rational (based on the data at the time) decision made quickly and decisively. I hope that at their 反省 (reflection) meeting that they note that delaying more than three weeks after a major disaster may be too long.

Drucker has one very telling comment (he's actually commenting on another management book 'In Search of Excellence') that most companies consist of mediocre people. Very cynical I agree but actually very accurate. Whilst you see lots of effort from lots of people in helping out in this disaster you also see lots of breathtaking bureaucracy and sheer obstructionism. I mentioned TEPCO as an obvious example but then I am arguing from analogy - an approach that I feel is appropriate here. One looks at the baseball authorities and sees similar patterns. You mention how long it took to come up with an agreement between Yakult and the Toto League - why? It strikes me that once the plan is fixed it is not changed no matter what.
It's not that the plan can't be changed its that its too much trouble to change it and by that I mean that no one wants to make the effort. My thought was to use all the underused stadiums in rural Japan - you know the ones that have two or so games a year. They're generally big enough. However, that is beside the point - I doubt it was even considered. You are right that the NPB is slow to make a decision but one shouldn't think that the quick decision by the Pacific League is necessarily a good thing. We may differ on motives but consider this point - the Pacific League hasn't been quick to leap to the Central League's defence has it? It has sat back and let them take the flack for considering a different option. I don't think that this can be considered a very virtuous approach. If the Pacific League was minded to be cooperative (which doesn't absolve the Central League) it surely would have worked more closely with the Central League to come up with a mutually acceptable agreement about the season. Instead the owners seem to have seized the opportunity to grab an advantage and appear superior to their rivals. The sheer speed of the Pacific League's postponement negated any chance of discussion or coordination.

[Edited by: Christopher on Apr 1, 2011 3:21 PM]

Westbay,

nice post above and very funny to boot. Not to dwell on this too long, I do have executive experience, quite a bit actually, and my take is that on this matter you have a better grasp on reality that our MBA based jargon thumping buddy. Remember Bush was the first MBA president and we all know that that produced, a boat load of failure. I have to admit I have an MBA as well, perhaps I could screw up the USA even more that Bush If my Dad were a previous president and I got the job. He was not by the way. He taught psychology so that means I am highly likely to be chronically unemployed but not president. Nobody in my family is in politics at this point. Real estate development is about as close as it gets.

I suggest however that if you are a citizen by now here in Japan you consider running for politics, or run the Central League, whichever is the lesser of two evils.

Christopher,

I think that I've found the main sticking point between our two points of view:

"If the Pacific League was minded to be cooperative (which doesn't absolve the Central League) it surely would have worked more closely with the Central League to come up with a mutually acceptable agreement about the season. Instead the owners seem to have seized the opportunity to grab an advantage and appear superior to their rivals. The sheer speed of the Pacific League's postponement negated any chance of discussion or coordination."

Because nothing the league does is very transparent, we end up having to guess what happened in those meetings based solely on what is announced to the press afterwards. You appear to think that the Pacific League owners colluded to make the Central League owners look cold hearted.

Based on what was said to the press, however, my impression was more along the lines of several ball clubs (mainly PL clubs) saying something along the line of, "This is bad. Very bad. Chiba and Sendai stadiums have been hit hard and may be out of commission for a while. Also, the capital will have a hard time with electricity until Fukushima comes back online (it was still early and there was hope that the plant would be recoverable). Maybe it would be prudent of us to take some time and evaluate how best to proceed."

But there were a few clubs (mainly CL clubs) that just said, "Hmph. We'll do what we want. This changes nothing."

The Giant and Chunichi really came off sounding like this. Granted, Chunichi isn't affected by a reduced power grid, but even Giants fans thought that their owner's comments went too far. Anti-Giant sentiment had absolutely nothing to do with it.

You clearly imagine that something completely different happened in those meetings.

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Zman,

Thanks for the vote of confidence. And seeing the humor. I wonder if my sense of irony and sarcastic humor is a bit too much for people sometimes. It's good to know that some people get it.

While business psychology isn't something I read, having a technical background, I'd long felt that I was more comfortable with machines that people. To broaden my horizons, other than philosophy (I believe I mentioned Nietzsche above), I read a lot of science fiction which is a great source for sociology. One book that struck a political cord of mine was "Imperial Earth" by Arthur C. Clarke. (I think this was the book.) There was segment that I thought described how politics should be. It went something like, "Nobody who wants the job of president is qualified. The best person for the job would go kicking and screaming to the White House, but be capable of doing the best job possible once there." That just makes so much sense. It's a shame that even Clarke thought it would take a couple hundred more years for the human race to realize this.

Hi Michael

I am very wary of trusting anything I read in the Japanese press - it is difficult to get an accurate view about anything especially currently. However, what leads me to think that the Pacific League did act as I have stated is the time factor. The Central League was able to take the decision to postpone later than the Pacific League but still be in time - why then did the Pacific League take the decision earlier? It wasn't necessary to do so especially as presenting a united front on the issue would have been a very good signal to the rest of the country. Base motives and pettiness are the more likely factors in this case. The pattern is familiar - its not about conspiracy but seizing a chance to advance your cause at the expense of others. It would have cost the Pacific League very little to wait a bit longer. I rather think that the difference between our views on the situation boils down to this time factor. The announcement from the Pacific League could have been made later in coordination with the Central League. It wasn't but the need for speed was not clear unless there was another motive.

The Giants were considering starting on time because the start could have been a great rallying factor (once again we reference the Yankees after 9/11) and helpful for recovery. However, it is not Fukushima that is the issue but the other power stations that were also shut down. Several were but even then I believe that Tokyo Dome is still powered. It's roof is held up by air pressure (a slight overpressure). I think that it needs to be permanently pressurised to some degree and that requires electricity but I may be mistaken here. Adding lighting and sound does not add much relatively to the power consumption. Certainly grounds would have had to be found for Golden Eagles and the Marines but there were offers (Fukuoka for Marines and Kobe and Koshien for Golden Eagles). So the options existed but were never allowed a chance.

Once the Pacific League announced its decision this became the default and other views were excluded. The negativity present in a lot of Japanese culture kicked in here which is why you got the government and some fans involved. It's nice to hit the nail which stands out especially in a difficult situation. To my mind there was never a rational debate about just what to do about the start of the season and how it could have been a help. This ties in with the current inadequate response to the disaster but that is another issue. If we are to take the 'official' account of events as acceptable the speed of the Pacific League's decision needs to be explained. So far I haven't seen anything to indicate that it was more than petty politics and there is a lot of that going on at the moment.

A better model from Science Fiction might be Robert A Heinlein. His characters display all the characteristics on exhibition here. Clarke, I like but he is too gentlemanly.

Westbay,

Yes, whoever wants the job should be disqualified. Maybe democracy would be better served by a lottery for higher office. It is so easy to make the case that democracy is not working well today in the US, and with the recent 50 plus years of LDP control, here in Japan as well.

I do agree with Christopher on something for once, Heinlein is great. "Stranger in a Strange Land" is a book that stays with you for a long time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stranger_in_a_Strange_Land

Yes. I am God. You are God.

"Stranger in a Strange Land" reminded me of Sidartha a great deal. It's been about 15 years since I'd read "Stranger." Now I'll have to find the box that it's in and read it again.

I was going over the above posts and I find myself agreeing with most of the core ideas that Christopher is saying. But how he reaches the conclusions he does makes me want to go the other way.

Westbay,

you are giving in to logic fatigue. Do not doubt that you are right and Christopher is wrong. At least on this issue. One does not recover from cricket I think, when it comes to understanding baseball. Or psychology. Or whatever.

We are now well into the baseball delay and its seems to me that Japan is surviving without the YGs forcing baseball on the country while bodies were still be counted from the Great Quake. And radiation was drifting down over Tokyo.

But hopefully now we can say the worse is over, the cherry blossoms are out and next week baseball can start in Japan. We can all grok that.

Zman
I really do sometimes think you totally miss the point. You talk about cherry blossoms being out but aren't you aware that a lot of people are staying away from celebrations? The papers have had to print editorials to encourage people to go out and celebrate hanami and even now there aren't as many people doing so. Why is this? It's because of the negative mood around in the country at the moment. Delay does not help recovery - Japan may have survived but it isn't recovering and the process hasn't even started yet. The important thing now is to ensure that the negative spirit doesn't take hold but each day of delay increases that chance. Bodies are still being counted even now and the clean up (an essential part of the recovery process) hasn't begun yet. We are starting baseball in two days time - what's the difference? Japan could have started the process earlier and maybe kickstarted a stuttering economy and it is struggling now.

Christopher,

I rarely read the newspapers, they are simply propaganda tools for the vested interests in Japan, like the YGs and their backers. I just got back from Ashiya, it was packed. That is what I believe, what I just saw with my own eyes.

If you think baseball is a driver for the economy in Japan, you need to augment your executive education with perhaps another MBA.

Time heals all wounds. The healing process has started in Japan and is well enough along for baseball to make sense somewhat now. The delightful spring weather helps. The games will all be day games from what I have heard so the energy impact will be minimized.

Reading newspapers can be quite useful - there are gems to be gleaned from within the dross. If they are talking about encouraging people to enjoy things then the situation is quite serious. Businesses which are normally popular at this time of the year are 30% down on last year - others even more. You should see the situation in Tokyo, Ashiya might be packed Tokyo isn't and Tokyo is the main driver of the Japanese economy. Kanto and Kansai are different economic environments.
People in East Japan need to be put into a spending mood and fairly quickly. The start of the season could have been a part of that process - now there is a danger that the economy could take a lot longer to recover and with it the country. Starting the season earlier could have been a very beneficial boost at a significant time, not financially but by changing the mood. Now the chance has been lost.

Christopher,

You overestimate the importance of baseball. It is not even a rounding error for the Japanese economy. And I think that if the evil YGs management had their way and baseball started in March then baseball could have gone the way of Sumo in this country. It would show the fans how far out of touch the sport is to reality. Attendence in March would have been minimal to boot. It may still be now that we are in April. We will find out shortly.

You seem to think that baseball is a magic bullet to help recover from the quake and following events. Not so. It will simply take time for this country to heal and hopefully come back stronger than before. Baseball is way off to the side of this process for the vast majority of people.

Next week I am up in Tokyo, I will buy a couple of beers while there to help the city recover economically and psychologically.

Baseball is not negligible as an income generator but I can agree with you that financially it's not that important. Where it is important is the impact it has on the mood of people. This is what you seem to be missing - the ability of the sport to bring people together and to provide a period of release from current worries and problems. One can either adopt a passive or an active stance to the recovery process - the passive approach tends to delay or even prevent things. An active stance produces quicker recovery. Sitting around being miserable means that you sit around being miserable. Doing things or trying to enjoy means that you start to recover quickly. Think in terms of symbolism and then think of baseball as a symbol.
Now if the powers that be had endorsed an early start to the season then the fans would have fallen into line behind them. Remember its a group culture. Instead they went the other way - short-sightedly but this is how the establishment in Japan often acts. It is also worth remembering that occasionally the Giants can actually also be right - a rigid adherence to one particular view tends to blind one to the facts. Your branding of the Giants as 'evil' suggests that you have fallen into this trap and are not prepared to consider that a different approach might have been a good thing because it was suggested by the Giants.

Christopher,

mostly mumbo jumbo on your part. The consensus on this matter was to delay the start, the YGs were the minority. Remember the players themselves insisted that the start be delayed. They displayed good sense and a basic sensitivity to the impact of the disaster on Japan.

When not watching baseball I am not miserable. For most of us that is the case, there are many other tasks at hand. Like the rest of life for example. No black/white logic fallacies please.

Futhermore, it seems to me that soccer is a much more powerful unifying force in Japan now. Baseball is not faring well, but at least playing baseball in March was nixed saving the sport from dishonor.

Soccer is a unifying force if the national team is playing otherwise it isn't.

No distractions, no escape. It may sound simplistic but it is true. Baseball is the only sport in Japan that has the capacity to unify and take people's mind off issues for a short while. It's a distraction but distractions are important in this sort of situation. Properly handled the start of the season would have been a great unifying and recovery factor.

You are right about the consensus but this itself was wrong. Once you look at how this sort of thing is handled outside Japan (and you really do need to take account of this) you see how important sport can be as a recovery and unifying factor. Baseball is still the premier sport in Japan with soccer a distant second so soccer will not work.

Still, these steps forward are very inspirational

http://christinenegroni.blogspot.com/2011/04/play-ball-opening-season-for-airport.html