Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
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Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: May 8, 2006 12:58 PM
| HAN Fan
]
I would say that - if you wanted a non drug explanation - everything came together. Some sports people are OK for the first part of their career but suddenly all their skills and experience click and they are able to use everything together and produce far better performances than before. This seems to be motivational in nature - he possibly found his groove.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: kappa | Posted: May 8, 2006 8:12 PM
]
I think that Mizuno ball and smaller strike zone inflated hitters' stats. Not only Tuffy Rhodes'.
Mizuno did the same thing in 1980. Flyball hitters like him may have been more influenced by the ball.
Mizuno did the same thing in 1980. Flyball hitters like him may have been more influenced by the ball.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: JOE KALESNIK | Posted: May 8, 2006 9:48 PM
]
What about Cabrera with the Lions in 2002? He hit 55 and Rhodes hit about 45 for the Buffs [it was 46]. Cabrera was bulked up like a WWF member. There is no doubt Tuffy went from a Slim Jim to a Captain Marvel. However, I still think the Pacific League was short on pitching and basically a home run hitter's league.
If Tuffy used drugs, wouldn't that show up on his passport certification for entry and exit of Japan?
If Tuffy used drugs, wouldn't that show up on his passport certification for entry and exit of Japan?
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Jbroks86 | Posted: May 9, 2006 6:47 AM
| SFT Fan
]
However, Cabrera displayed power in the minors in the United States and also displayed power while he played in Taiwan. [The Baseball Cube]
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: BigManZam | Posted: May 8, 2006 10:41 PM
| CLM Fan
]
I've always wondered if there were extra motivations for not allowing either Tuffy or Cabrera to break Oh's record. Personally, I think the single season record for home runs isn't as important as career homers, especially after the ridiculous 2001 season by Bonds. Hopefully, we won't have anything like that ever happen again.
Anyway, it would be great if Tuffy could come on here and explain some parts of his career, but I don't know if that'll ever happen.
Anyway, it would be great if Tuffy could come on here and explain some parts of his career, but I don't know if that'll ever happen.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest | Posted: May 9, 2006 2:26 AM
]
Cabrera had reasonably similar power numbers before he came to Japan (once you account for the difference between the leagues). So, if he was juicing, it would precede his coming to Japan. When did the new Mizuno ball start to be used? How much was it used? Did it continue to be used through 2004?
It's my experience that very few guys all of a sudden jump from the major league equivalent of 23-27 homers in a season to 38 or more at the age Tuffy did without some other factor being in play (new ballpark, etc). So call me a skeptic of that particular explanation. I doubt his papers would document anything if he wasn't caught at it, so that isn't very persuasive either.
I think the home run record was quite enough reason for Rhodes and/or Cabrera to have been treated that way. After all, Randy Bass got that treatment about 15 years earlier, when steroids were hardly prominent in the game.
Jim Albright
It's my experience that very few guys all of a sudden jump from the major league equivalent of 23-27 homers in a season to 38 or more at the age Tuffy did without some other factor being in play (new ballpark, etc). So call me a skeptic of that particular explanation. I doubt his papers would document anything if he wasn't caught at it, so that isn't very persuasive either.
I think the home run record was quite enough reason for Rhodes and/or Cabrera to have been treated that way. After all, Randy Bass got that treatment about 15 years earlier, when steroids were hardly prominent in the game.
Jim Albright
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Mischa | Posted: May 9, 2006 7:03 AM
| TYS Fan
]
You can use this to argue either side, but Tuffy's big power explosion didn't come in 1999, but 1993, when he went from 4 HR to 30. So either Rhodes began using steroids in '93 then increased his usage in '99, or he had a history of sudden improvements in play unrelated to steroid usage. A couple other points:
- Rhodes put on 35 pounds and did a lot of weight-training as his career progressed, so a natural explanation can be argued. OTOH, Bonds is also known for such extensive workouts, which would have been boosted by steroids if he took them. Again, it can be used to argue either side.
- Rhodes did try to come to the U.S. when they were using extensive steroid testing. This either shows that he was never using, had been using but stopped, or was willing to risk it. I'd mark this as a point in his favor.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: Ed Kranepool | Posted: May 9, 2006 2:27 PM
]
Very well done. Impune the integrity of a great NPB player on idle gossip and speculation. To all of you who were upset by some comments on Iriki-san and searched for alternatives, what have you to say about this? Remember, Iriki-san tested positive. Tuffy never did.
What's next, Sadahuru Oh was on greenies when he hit all those homers?
Talk about witch hunts!
What's next, Sadahuru Oh was on greenies when he hit all those homers?
Talk about witch hunts!
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: kappa | Posted: May 9, 2006 9:59 PM
]
The Mizuno ball (rabbit ball) had been used in the Pacific League from 2001-2004. Also, the Dragons used it from 2002-2004. As did the BayStars from 2003-2004.
It is clear that the Giants started to use the ball, but it is unclear when exactlly. Probably it was in 1999.
Did Barry Bonds test positive?
It is clear that the Giants started to use the ball, but it is unclear when exactlly. Probably it was in 1999.
Did Barry Bonds test positive?
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: mijow | Posted: May 9, 2006 9:59 PM
| HT Fan
]
- To all of you who were upset by some comments on Iriki-san and searched for alternatives, what have you to say about this?
Well you said it: it's all idle gossip and speculation - hardly worth commenting on I'm afraid.
Well you said it: it's all idle gossip and speculation - hardly worth commenting on I'm afraid.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest | Posted: May 10, 2006 12:19 AM
]
To those complaining about the point of the thread, remember, I'm asking for alternative explanations. Tuffy's numbers when he first came to Japan were consistent with what we might have expected once he got to play full time in the majors. Even his spike to 40 in Japan in 1999 looks more like a single season spike to a career year - but from ages 32 to 36, he eclipsed those marks. That kind of increase had to spark some comment.
On the use of the Mizuno balls, did all teams use them? If not, which teams did?
Jim Albright
On the use of the Mizuno balls, did all teams use them? If not, which teams did?
Jim Albright
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Jingu Bleacher Bum | Posted: May 10, 2006 9:13 AM
| YAK Fan
]
Some people just peak physically later in life. I've heard people say that the human body reaches physical peak in the mid to late 20's, but I'm almost 31 now, and after hitting the gym consistently over the last couple of years, I'm stronger than I ever was in my 20's.
I wasn't here during Tuffy's 55 run, but it also could have been his mental approach at the plate that year, whether he was being more aggressive, or waiting for only his pitch. His SO's increased from 2000, so maybe after that season he had laser eye surgery, allowing him to connect with the ball better?
I wasn't here during Tuffy's 55 run, but it also could have been his mental approach at the plate that year, whether he was being more aggressive, or waiting for only his pitch. His SO's increased from 2000, so maybe after that season he had laser eye surgery, allowing him to connect with the ball better?
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: May 10, 2006 9:36 AM
| HAN Fan
]
I think the problem here is comparing the two types of baseball, NPB and MLB. They are very different. Tuffy Rhodes moved from an environment that didn't suit him to one that did. He felt happier and improved enormously. At first it was easy (first year), but then he discovered he had to put in the work - which he did. He was rewarded with excellent performances - as I said everything came together.
A mundane explanation admittedly, but more credible than other speculation. Of course, the more far out speculation may turn out to be true, but until it does you should always go with the mundane.
A mundane explanation admittedly, but more credible than other speculation. Of course, the more far out speculation may turn out to be true, but until it does you should always go with the mundane.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: kappa | Posted: May 10, 2006 2:21 PM
]
Please review the following PIF graphs.
You will notice the rapid change in 1979-1981.
Also check the spike in 1962 and 1963. In 1963, both leagues started to use new imported leather balls. ERA deteriorated rapidly.
Also in 1949 and 1950, areal rabbit ball was used. The ball effect was much bigger than you think.
Finally, check the Pacific League 2001. It was an abnormal year. Compared with the Central League, it was as if it was a different country's baseball. All Pacific League teams used the Mizuno ball.
FIP is kind of DIPS [FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP + 3.2].
You will notice the rapid change in 1979-1981.
- Between 1979-1980, Hankyu and Kintetsu used Mizuno's ball.
- In 1980, Nankai and Seibu used the ball.
- In 1981 the ball was prophibited.
Also check the spike in 1962 and 1963. In 1963, both leagues started to use new imported leather balls. ERA deteriorated rapidly.
Also in 1949 and 1950, areal rabbit ball was used. The ball effect was much bigger than you think.
Finally, check the Pacific League 2001. It was an abnormal year. Compared with the Central League, it was as if it was a different country's baseball. All Pacific League teams used the Mizuno ball.
FIP is kind of DIPS [FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP + 3.2].
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest | Posted: May 11, 2006 4:22 AM
]
There's no question a ball can have an impact. Is there a graph of the home run rate (per game or per 100 AB, for example) from say 1990 through 2005 for each league?
Jim Albright
Jim Albright
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: May 11, 2006 8:26 AM
| YBS Fan
]
I've created a chart with just the home runs per 9 innings.
I suppose you're looking for the effect on the ball by eliminating pitcher quality factoring?
Hope this helps.
I suppose you're looking for the effect on the ball by eliminating pitcher quality factoring?
Hope this helps.
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest | Posted: May 11, 2006 10:19 AM
]
My question was about homers specifically, and the other graph involved more than just homers. There is a spike in HR in the PL around this time, but only about half of the jump Rhodes experienced. He may have been specially suited to take advantage of it, maybe not. At least that spike accounts for a sizeable portion of the difference. If we had a measure of flyball versus ground outs, we could test if Rhodes was a flyball hitter, and if such hitters all had that kind of increase in HR - but the closer we can get a group of players to Rhodes' massive jump, the more likely he combined a little luck with an ability to take advantage of a change in circumstances.
Jim Albright
Jim Albright
Re: Reasons for Tuffy Rhodes HR Explosion
[ Author: Guest: kappa | Posted: May 13, 2006 6:53 PM
]
I don't know GB/FB ratios, but similar stats in 2004 are available. Ground outs/Fly outs ratios.
Top five flyball hitters were:
Groud outs/Fly outs ratio include GIDP (16) and elclude HR (45), so he is slightly a flyball hitter compared with the league average. GIDP counts two outs.
Top five flyball hitters were:
- George Arias 0.72
- Horoki Kokubo 0.80
- Koichi Ogata 0.83
- Motonobu Tanishige 0.85
- Tomonori Maeda 0.88
Groud outs/Fly outs ratio include GIDP (16) and elclude HR (45), so he is slightly a flyball hitter compared with the league average. GIDP counts two outs.
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What were the popularly discussed reasons for this jump in HR production, which he largely kept up for a few years (so we can rule out a fluke)? I have to be suspicious that performance enhancing drugs could be at least part of the explanation, but I'm not happy that it's the only explanation I'm able to come up with. I'd like to give the man his due if he did it cleanly.
This is one of the real downsides of those kinds of drugs - they wind up making us suspicious of everyone who makes improvements, especially sudden, large improvements. That said, this sudden large improvement came comparatively late in Tuffy's career, he did bulk up from his major league days, and steroids and HGH were very much in use in the major leagues by then. So, without a persuasive alternative explanation, one has good reason for suspicion.
If he did it cleanly, help me out with another explanation - but, by the same token, if there were at least whispers in the direction of pharmaceutical help, I think it appropriate to put that on the table as well.
Jim Albright