Giants Decline into the Basement

There are two topics here that have discussed the Giants' recent fall, What Happened to the Giants? and Arias the Giant!.

I've mentioned before that Yomiuri hasn't developed their minor league system to an extent, and I still believe this is part of their problem, lackluster development of their farm system.

I believe the signing of George Arias is part of the problem with Yomiuri as I've pointed out in the Arias topic. I believe instead of signing Arias, that Yomiuri should develop their lackluster minor league system now. Though, I'm also starting to believe that this isn't the way of thinking for Yomiuri. There is pressure to win now, not later in Yomiuri.

Also, Gary Garland of Japan Baseball Daily has discussed the Giants' fall from grace numerous times in his daily reports.

Jbroks86,

Thanks for the detailed response. I did see earlier today the other threads on the Giants' decline into door-mat-land. Mostly populated by those wishing for something other than what the Giants deserve.

I agree the Arias signing stinks of desperation. Even while at Hanshin, although very popular, he never seemed able to deliver in the clutch. Some players are just that way.

- ...although very popular, he never seemed able to deliver in the clutch.

That's probably an exaggeration. He was an important part of the Tigers' 2003 pennant-winning team, and although he may well have failed in the clutch from time to time, if you consider his contribution in home runs and RBIs (team ranking in parentheses), you'll see that he wasn't exactly a slouch either:

2002 32 HRs (1), 82 RBIs (1)
2003 38 HRs (1), 107 RBIs (1)
2004 25 HRs (3), 84 RBIs (eq 3)

-- ...although very popular, he never seemed able to deliver in the clutch.

- That's probably an exaggeration. He was an important part of the Tigers' 2003 pennant-winning team, and although he may well have failed in the clutch from time to time, if you consider his contribution in home runs and RBIs (team ranking in parentheses), you'll see that he wasn't exactly a slouch either:

- 2002 32 HRs (1), 82 RBIs (1)
- 2003 38 HRs (1), 107 RBIs (1)
- 2004 25 HRs (3), 84 RBIs (eq 3)

The numbers you cite are not when there were runners on base. I don't know what those numbers are, but I can tell you that Arias was very consistent about grounding into double plays and striking out with men on base. He has a knack for killing rallies. He is doing the same for the Midgets right now, but fortunately this time he is not hurting the Tigers.

How this thread turned to the merits of the Dragons from the demerits of Midgets I am not sure. But I do agree that the Dragons are fighting above their weight and may indeed win it all.

- I dont know what those numbers are but I can tell you that Arias was very consistant about grounding into double plays and striking out with men on base. He has a knack for killing rallies.

Well if you don't know what the numbers are, then I suppose what you're saying is hard to prove. I remember Arias as an important member of the team, especially in 2003. Arias was ranked number one in home runs and RBIs on what was one of the best Hanshin sides ever. If he had consistently killed rallies and left runners stranded as you say, then he wouldn't have seen much playing time on that team - let alone led in those categories.

Of course you could be thinking about 2004, and I'd agree that he didn't perform too well that season. And the Tigers didn't invite him back. But the Arias of 2002 and 2003 was not as pathetic as you're making out.

Arias sat out part of the 2004 season due to injury which is why his figures are lower. His hip or thigh if I recall correctly. His main problem was disagreement with the management which is why he wasn't invited back.

Of course "disagreement with management" can cover a great many things. But you may well be right, which probably strengthens my case.

I wonder if anyone has those clutch stats. I'm thinking particularly of RISP (Runners in Scoring Position), ROB (Runners on Base), or even CL (Close and Late - when the game is in the 7th inning or later and the batting team is leading by one run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat or on deck).

- I wonder if anyone has those clutch stats. I'm thinking particularly of RISP (Runners in Scoring Position), ROB (Runners on Base), or even CL (Close and Late - when the game is in the 7th inning or later and the batting team is leading by one run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat or on deck).

While I can't find Arias' numbers with ROB, CL, 7th inning or later and the batting team by 1 run/tied/or has the potential tying run on base/at bat/or on deck, Japan Baseball Daily [scroll down for George Arias] has RISP. It looks like Arias struggled every year but 2003.

2000- .200
2001- .216
2002- .231
2003- .326
2004- .267

Overall, those numbers are very bad, 2003 is pretty good. In, 2004 Arias sat out a part of the season I think with injuries, so the numbers there might be a little confusing.

Right, so according to those stats, Arias did perform in 2003 (as I thought).

And thus the statement "...he never seemed able to deliver in the clutch." was an exaggeration after all.

If you consider one fluke year instead of the four others cited then you have a unusual way of analyzing statistics.

...then you have a unusual way of analyzing statistics.

Not at all. For a start, I was considering only the three years he played for the Tigers, because that was the focus of your comment: "... but fortunately this time he is not hurting the Tigers."

I wanted to point out that he didn't actually hurt the Tigers (as opposed to Orix) as badly as you seemed to think.

And if you consider the average over those three years, it comes to .274. Not great, but not bad either.

- And if you consider the average over those three years, it comes to .274. Not great, but not bad either.

And considering his batting average was approximately .265 those three years (the average of his 3 batting averages, not total at-bats divided by hits), it is hard to argue that Arias didn't deliver in the clutch. A hitter whose average with RISP is close to his batting average cannot be called a "bad clutch hitter," as most players, even the best ones, will have an average with RISP very close to their career batting average.

I'm a Kyojin fan who picked the G-men to finish third/fourth if you check my April post entitled "Central League Predictions."

As far as this season goes, I think it is a matter of injuries, plus the fact they were playing a little above their heads to start the year. I also question some of Hara's lineup decisions and his ability to get them back on track after losing a few games. He is still better than Horiuchi, then again I could probably say that about myself.

The Arias signing was dreadful, why sign some aging "has been" from the Mexican League when they have nothing to play for anyway? Better to go with the young guns and develop them for the future.

What is really bad is that there is no hope for next year as Lee will be gone, and possibly Kokubo as well. But alas, perhaps a Ogasawara and Kuroda are on the way!

As for the overall decline of the past four seasons, I would have to say this is based upon many of the top Japanese players leaving NPB for MLB. 10 to 20 years ago the Giants would have signed many of these players such as Iguchi (could have filled their gaping hole at second), Ichiro, Johjima (big maybe, if they elected to move Abe to 1B), and of course their very own Matsui (Hideki). There must be some pitchers as well, but I cannot think of any big name starters that have moved to MLB over the past few years.

In conclusion, I would have to say the way of doing business in NPB has changed considerably over the last five to ten years, and the Giants have not been able to keep up with the changing times. This combined with collapse of their pitching staff has doomed them to a last three finish for at least the next two years, and probably beyond.

The move of Japanese players to MLB has in no way damaged the talent available in Japan, and certainly didn't have any relationship to the Giants' decline. What troubles the Giants is poor squad development and an over-reliance on spending enormous amounts of money on players past their best. This coupled with poor management and interference by the front office has crippled their development. Furthermore an adherence to obsolete and outdated training and tactics has stymied the development of many players. It is likely that they will lose their one great pitcher (Uehara) to MLB as well creating a very big hole in a very weak pitching line up.

I agree with Christopher here, that the signing of a few NPB stars by MLB teams is not to blame for the Giants' collapse. It has to do mostly with injuries and short-term planning, as mentioned above.

Having said that, I am not thrilled to read in today's New York Times that the Yankees are apparently making plans for snatching Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm not yet sure if I could articulate why, however - ima kangaete imasu. Maybe some readers can weigh in with their own thoughts on that one.

Anyway, regarding George Arias, I think the Yomiuri signing was a decent move (and I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the quality of the Mexican League). In addition to my own good feelings about him as a player, you have to consider that his name probably will sell a few seats in a year that is otherwise really lost for the Giants. Economics and fan appeal do account for something. Indeed it would be a desperation move if the Giants think that Arias is going to deliver a pennant, but I would consider that kind of thinking inane. He's just not the kind of player that carries a team.

I would like to hear more input from another angle, about what Chunichi is doing right that they are such a consistent powerhouse (dynasty?) in the CL? To me, they seem strong year after year after year. Am I right on this?

Chunichi relies on their pitching and pushing their pitchers mercelessly. In 2004 they pushed too hard and their pitching collapsed towards the end of the season. Currently their pitching is strong and is holding out well. Offensively they are mediocre, but Ochiai is a master of getting the best out of his players. He also has good defence.

They have the ability to hit with runners on base. This year the team is really structured for beating the Tigers as they are the Dragons' main rivals. If they can continue to win against the other teams they have a good chance of the pennant. They do seem to lack the flair, though, that gives teams the Japan Series, and nothing this year indicates they have found it yet.

A mistake: I said in 2004 Chunichi pitching collapsed. I should have said 2005.

Apologies.

No, no. The "pushing their pitchers mercilessly" is the old Chunichi. Ochiai pulled Nakata last night with a 7-0 lead after seven innings. Granted, Nakata wasn't as sharp as he could have been (6 H and 5 BB), but the Drags stopped burning out pitchers when Hoshino left. Right now the pen and the ni-gun are too deep to bother burning anyone out (Kawakami excluded - they'll let him throw as much as he wants).

Reasons for success:

• Ochiai handles his pitching staff very well - extremely well for a former slugger and a corner guy.
• The depth of the pitching staff pressures everyone to perform or pack up for the ni-gun.
• Solid defense, which gives pitchers a little leeway here and there.
• Unselfishness (?) Despite complaints from half the team about ownership being cheap with their raises last year, the team as a whole does what is asked of it. Tatsunami doesn't whine about shuttling back and forth between 3B, LF, and the bench. Morino plays 3B, 2B, and OF. Woods doesn't complain when he's taken out for a pinch runner or a better glove late in a game. Several guys platoon in the OF wherever Alex and Fukudome aren't playing. No one whines about their positions in the batting order.
• Smart pickups - Ochiai must have been scouting his teammates when he was with the Giants and Fighters. He added Kawai in his first year, and this year he picked up Ueda and Narahara. Older dudes, yes, but veterans, role players (not impact guys), and relatively inexpensive acquisitions that add presence. Taking Oda from the Giants instead of cash as consolation for Noguchi's free agency was amusing because it gives Tanishige more help (though Ochiai said he took Oda for his bat) and it weakened the Giants at a key position. I think Ochiai will try to grab Shimizu and perhaps Nishi when the Giants start dumping players.

They will win the CL because:

• The regulars have been healthy and steady ...
• ... except for Fukudome, and the team held on to first place even without Fukudome for a while.
• Some of the not-so-regulars are having career years (Morino, Satoh).
• Guys that have made contributions in the past (Martinez, Guzman, Okamoto, Tanishige, Tatsunami, Araki) have yet to really step up.
• The Tigers and Swallows are not playing up to their potential.

They will not win the CL because:

• They have lots of trouble with the Carp (Why? Why, Carp fans, why? Year after year the Carp play the Drags tough).
• They are good enough to win, but rarely dominate or intimidate their opponents like a real powerhouse would. This might suggest they are playing at or above their potential.

Thanks for the in-depth analysis, Dragsfan. This is good info to chew on as I tune in for the third set of a so-far frustrating (for me) series. I hope that Shimoyanagi has good stuff tonight.

My pleasure. The Drags beat Shimoyanagi last night, but it didn't look too good. They ran his pitch count up early on, which I thought was great because he usually kills the Drags, but then Kawakami also threw nearly 60 pitches in the first two innings.

No need to be disappointed. I think there are still 12 games left between the two teams, and the Drags are all too capable of winning six in a row against strong teams and then dropping six in a row against weaker ones.

Pro Yakyu News made a point that Shimoyanagi struck Fukudome out on sliders early in the game, so Fukudome was looking for a slider later, got one on the first pitch of his fourth AB, and homered on it. What should a battery do there? Should a catcher change his approach completely on a batter's third or fourth time up, or since Fukudome was 0-3 until his HR, was Yano right to keep calling for sliders?

I think Chunichi stranded 13 runners last night. They might not get 13 runners on base in a week!

None of the Dragons' pitchers were particularly good in the series, but they walked away with the wins.

Importantly, a good team needs to be able to play so-so or even poorly and still win. One thing that hasn't been mentioned about the Dragons is their ability to hang onto a tight lead. This was something lacking from the Tigers and has been for most of the season.

Haha, yes, the Dragons have to hang on to tight leads because they're not likely to get big ones!

I agree completely that the pitching was not particularly good. Hopefully they will be a bit sharper against the Giants. At least they won't have to face Powell or Uehara.

I found some Dragons video highlights on the Internet. What phenomenal web gems! I'm also impressed with how few errors they make. Ibata looks like Ozzie Smith, and the outfielders are out of this world.

Why doesn't ESPN show this stuff? American TV viewers, especially Mets fans, are under the impression that Japanese baseball stinks and they think the WBC championship was some sort of fluke. I'm upset with ESPN for either being too lazy or too closed-minded to show the fans how well the game is played on the other side of our planet.

Much as I would like to have somebody offer NPB on this side of the Pacific, ESPN is a business in search of good ratings. Furthermore, they don't want to undercut their own MLB broadcasts. They're not in the business of catering to every baseball fan. I can't fault ESPN for its business decisions in this regard. But where is Fox Sports and some of these other, smaller sports outlets looking to make an impact?

Jim Albright

- But where is Fox Sports and some of these other, smaller sports outlets looking to make an impact?

Fox Sports used to televise the Nichi-Bei Series in the states in the 1990s and early 2000s, but stopped around 2002 or so I think.

It was quite a disappointment, though also there needed to be more resources into getting more experts into providing accurate commentary for American fans, like experts of Japanese baseball.

Since the Giants have been hyped for decades, are non-Giants fans reacting with glee to Yomiuri's fall? There would be a lot of happy Americans if the Yankees were in the basement.

Not really - the Giants are a massively popular team and it is they (along with the Tigers) who drive Japanese baseball. Central League teams rely on a lot of their income from Giants and Tigers matches. If the Giants are doing poorly then the fans do not come out so much, gates are down, and viewing figures for television also fall.

Senichi Hoshino (ex Dragons and Tigers) is on record as saying that Japanese baseball needs a strong Giants to be successful. For Tigers fans, whilst it is wonderful to beat the Giants, it is much better to beat a strong Giants than a weak one.

- ...are non-Giants fans reacting with glee to Yomiuri's fall?

Definitely - especially Tigers fans. It doesn't happen very often, so we'll enjoy it while we can.

I for one am very happy to see the decline of the Giants. When I say "Giants" I mean the institution that is, not individual players/members. For so long the unashamedly media darlings, with a supporter base so wide yet reflected not much substance about the game itself. Hype upon hype.

And the iron fisted rule of Watanabe over the whole of Japanese baseball was nothing short of breathtaking. Draconian in it's formulation, Draconian in it's enactment.

A real insight into the the myriad of problems facing Japanese sport and and it's reluctance to enter the 21st century (and 20th before) could not be better exemplified than by the conduct of Giants Inc. over the past decades. With little thought for the game as a whole, i.e. a competition, but a lot of greedy self interest fueled by sickening amounts of money. Their sinking has enabled other teams and players to get some deserved attention that was so long denied them by a pathetically groveling media.

Titanic bye bye.

Tubby,

You are right on point, baseball during the Giants' dominance was like sumo today with just one yokozuna competing. Except in the case of Sumo, Asashoyu is not corrupt to the core as the Giants had been under Watanabe. The league is better off now with new ownership and a better balance of control than before.

I read recently that the Giants' TV ratings are plummeting. It seems even at the Tokyo Dome when they play Hanshin there are more Tiger fans there than Giant fans. The Tiger fans certainly are more noisy.

The Giants, now after several years of futility, are getting close to being branded as losers.

I think the Giants should bring back Kiyohara next year to help assure their total fall from grace. Giant fans still love that guy who was washed up years ago.

One of the scary things is that, in the past, the Giants Machine has been able to use the "Giants losing = NPB in trouble" panic mentality as an excuse to try all sorts of things. The Giants reek, so attendance is down, so all NPB is threatened! Quick, let's tinker with the draft system yet again! Let's dump two teams and adopt a single league format, because everyone knows that if the Giants don't win the financial viability of all NPB is at risk! If the Giants finish second or third, this isn't such a big deal, but when they fall to fourth or lower they seem to feel the need to try more drastic measures.

Why do the Giants stink this year? One reason is that they're playing some really stupid baseball! Last night (August 11), 8th inning, Giants down 1-2, one out nobody on, Shimizu walks. Nioka strikes out. Lee at the plate, and ... pinch runner Suzuki steals second? The Carp think about match ups for about .0001 second and decide to walk Lee (second in the CL in avg. at .326, first in homers at 36, and third in RBI at 78) so they can face Yoshinobu (.240/10/30). Hara (or Suzuki - it might not have been called) takes the bat out of the hands of the best hitter in the league! Takahashi strikes out, inning over.

The issue is a bit more complex than a simple misplaced vicarious thrill in the Giants demise. Two factors need to be born in mind. Firstly, the lack of marketing prowess of most of the other baseball teams, and secondly, the driving power of the Giants/Tigers rivalry and how it impacts on other teams.

Of all the teams, only the Tigers have a marketing strategy and an ability to pull people in and get them to buy team branded goods in enormous amounts. For example they introduced the pink player shirt for female fans and were rewarded with enormous sales (Japanese females love pink). When Softbank introduced a pink shirt, it was as a free offer to high school pupils and it was only through complaints from older female fans that they started selling them. Other teams exhibit a similar lack of marketing nous, and as a result suffer from falling attendance.

In the Central League teams rely on Tigers and Giants games for revenue. Both bring large numbers of traveling fans who often outnumber home support. If the Giants fans are not turning out to games in the numbers they were, the other teams revenue will suffer as you have only one big team to follow. Whilst other teams have been making moves towards a regional focus, it will take time for them to build up a big enough following to bring the crowds on a regular basis, and so in the Central League the two big teams are important.

Until the rest of the teams get their marketing and promotion sorted out, the Giants are an important factor. People want to watch their team play a big team with big stars, but not an under performing big team to the same extent.

Advertising revenue is also important - a big team will get sponsors because they are seen on TV. If we look at the example of helmet advertising, the Dragons cannot get sponsors to pay what they want to put a label on their helmets. The Tigers have no problems and the benefit to the sponsor Joshin is enormous. Hoardings are also another source of revenue. If games are televised then the sponsors name is seen. If not, then any money spent on this form of advertising is of limited value. If the Giants viewing figures continue to fall and TV stations stop televising games, sponsors will stop advertising. This will lead to a fall in other teams revenues as well.

A final comment on the Tigers/Giants rivalry - this is what drives Japanese baseball. It is what generates interest in the sport in general. People in Japan have very strong regional loyalties, and whilst they may not follow the Giants or the Tigers, they will have their interest piqued by the teams. This leads them to watch their own regional teams. The Tigers might have the biggest support in Japan, but it is mainly made up of Kansai people - they are the premier regional team in the country. The Giants have the most widespread support through their team for Japan strategy which, even though it is now defunct, still has a residual value. When a team does badly, a lot of support does not turn out and goes dormant. This is bad for other teams as the lack of interest does not help their revenue. The big teams are needed to generate interest and revenue, and if they are doing poorly it impacts on the smaller teams in a disproportionate way. So whilst I have no regrets about the passing of the Giants power and their abuse of the system, I do worry about the impact of a poorly performing Giants. A strong Giants are an essential element of a healthy Japanese baseball scene.

Christopher,

Very nice post. A simple test of your theory would be to check ratings for when the Tigers play the hapless Midgets, or when they play the Dragons, who are contenders for the pennant. I for one would rather see the later as the Dragons are an exciting team to watch whereas the Midgets, outside of Lee who is one tough out, are boring.

I would guess that the Dragons-Tigers game outdraws the Tigers-Midgets, therefore disproving your theory. But I do not know how to get the stats. Perhaps someone on this board can?

That one's easy enough to check. Data from TBS Radio's site.

Tigers vs. Giants:

1. 04-21 Tokyo Dome 43,483
2. 04-22 Tokyo Dome 44,458
3. 04-23 Tokyo Dome 43,890
4. 05-02 Koshien 48,512
5. 05-03 Koshien 48,520
6. 05-04 Koshien 48,521
7. 06-30 Tokyo Dome 44,105
8. 07-01 Tokyo Dome 45,550
9. 07-02 Tokyo Dome 44,770
10. 07-19 Koshien 48,550
11. 08-01 Tokyo Dome 44,146
12. 08-02 Tokyo Dome 44,287
13. 08-03 Tokyo Dome 44,319

Tigers vs. Dragons:

1. 04-12 Koshien 46,090
2. 04-13 Koshien 43,307
3. 04-18 Nagoya Dome 28,683
4. 04-19 Nagoya Dome 26,783
5. 07-14 Kyocera Dome 32,925
6. 07-15 Kyocera Dome 33,922
7. 07-16 Kyocera Dome 33,629
8. 07-25 Nagoya Dome 37,792
9. 07-26 Nagoya Dome 37,638
10. 07-27 Nagoya Dome 37,076
11. 08-11 Nagoya Dome 38,023
12. 08-12 Nagoya Dome 38,335

And for completeness, Dragons vs. Giants:

1. 04-07 Nagoya Dome 29,217
2. 04-08 Nagoya Dome 37,703
3. 04-09 Nagoya Dome 36,875
4. 04-28 Tokyo Dome 40,325
5. 04-29 Tokyo Dome 44,274
6. 04-30 Tokyo Dome 42,656
7. 06-23 Nagoya Dome 37,635
8. 06-24 Nagoya Dome 38,343
9. 06-25 Nagoya Dome 38,306
10. 07-04 Tokyo Dome 41,197
11. 07-05 Tokyo Dome 40,072
12. 07-06 Tokyo Dome 41,084
13. 07-28 Nagoya Dome 38,161
14. 07-29 Nagoya Dome 38,349
15. 07-30 Nagoya Dome 38,327

So, there you have the raw numbers. How many interpretations can we get out of them?

By taking all the figures and adding them then dividing the total, you can find the average attendance.

Tigers vs. Giants: 45,701
Tigers vs. Dragons 36,184
Dragons vs. Giants 38,833

As you can see by those statistics, the Giants are still attracting fans, and the Tigers vs. Giants series in Japan is easily the most strongest match up, despite Yomiuri's record.

Yomiuri regardless of their history, and Watanabe's willingness to control the NPB, are crucial to the economy of the NPB as you can see by the stats there. Hanshin and Yomiuri both are the most crucial teams to the NPB. A weak Yomiuri doesn't serve to the importance of the NPB.

Oops, I don't think I gave enough information. Straight averages won't work because each ball park holds a different number of people; Nagoya Dome the least of the three.

Let's look at the top ten attendances at the three home parks:

Hanshin at Koshien:
07-19 48,550 Yomiuri Giants
05-04 48,521 Yomiuri Giants
05-03 48,520 Yomiuri Giants
07-29 48,519 Tokyo Yakult Swallows
04-29 48,517 Tokyo Yakult Swallows
06-03 48,514 Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
07-28 48,513 Tokyo Yakult Swallows
05-02 48,512 Yomiuri Giants
06-24 48,510 Tokyo Yakult Swallows
07-30 48,509 Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Giants at Tokyo Dome:
05-27 45,981 vs. Chiba Lotte Marines
05-28 45,620 vs. Chiba Lotte Marines
07-01 45,550 vs. Hanshin Tigers
05-05 45,389 vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows
06-03 44,829 vs. Seibu Lions
05-06 44,786 vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows
07-02 44,770 vs. Hanshin Tigers
06-17 44,647 vs. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
04-22 44,458 vs. Hanshin Tigers
03-31 44,352 vs. Yokohama BayStars

Dragons at Nagoya Dome:
07-29 38,349 Yomiuri Giants
06-24 38,343 Yomiuri Giants
08-12 38,335 Hanshin Tigers
07-30 38,327 Yomiuri Giants
06-25 38,306 Yomiuri Giants
07-28 38,161 Yomiuri Giants
06-17 38,117 Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
08-11 38,023 Hanshin Tigers
06-18 37,836 Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
07-25 37,792 Hanshin Tigers

From the looks of it, the Giants are the most important match up for both the Tigers and Dragons, neither of which are as significant as other Kanto Area teams to the Giants.

But what needs to be done to the original averages comparison is to compare percentages of the possible attendances to each ball park. So assume that 48,550 is 100% attendance at Koshien, 45,981 is 100% at Tokyo Dome, and 38,349 is 100% at Nagoya Dome (and 38,349 was the max for Kyocera Dome on 07-15 against the Dragons). What average percentage does each team draw per venue?

Source: TBS Excite Baseball

Okay, I think I finally got this, now were taking the % of the overall attendance divided by the total max capacity of the home stadium, if I'm wrong please point out.

Hanshin at Koshien:
7/19- Yomiuri- 88.27%
5/04- Yomiuri- 88.22%
5/03- Yomiuri- 88.23%
7/29- Yakult- 88.22%
4/29- Yakult- 88.21%
6/03- Softbank- 88.21%
5/02- Yomiuri- 88.20%
6/24- Yakult- 88.20%
7/30- Yakult- 88.20%

Giants at Tokyo Dome

5/27- Chiba Lotte- 83.6%
5/28- Chiba Lotte- 82.95%
7/01- Hanshin- 82.82%
5/05- Yakult- 82.53%
6/03- Seibu- 81.51%
5/06- Yakult- 81.43%
7/02- Hanshin- 81.40%
6/17- Rakuten- 81.18%
4/22- Hanshin- 80.83%
3/31- Yokohama- 80.64%

Dragons at Nagoya Dome

7/29- Yomiuri- 94.69%
6/24- Yomiuri- 94.67%
8/12- Hanshin- 94.65%
7/30- Yomiuri- 94.63%
6/25- Yomiuri- 94.58%
7/28- Yomiuri- 94.23%
6/17- Softbank- 94.12%
8/11- Hanshin- 93.88%
6/18- Softbank- 93.42%
7/25- Hanshin- 93.31

Hanshin at Kyocera Dome

7/15- Chunichi- 79.89%

As you can see Yomiuri is still very important to the attendance of all CL teams. Of all of Chunichi's Top 10 attendances, 5 of 10 were versus Yomiuri and 3 were versus Hanshin. With a falling Yomiuri, it helps no one attendance wise.

Also, of note, the Kyocera Dome (formerly known as the Osaka Dome) max capacity is 48,000.

I was actually referring to the average attendance per venue. We're just trying to compare the three teams' match ups against each other. (We'll leave other attendance comparisons for another time.)

So, take the average attendance of the Tigers vs. Giants games broken down between Koshien and Tokyo Dome. Divide the average by 48,550 for Koshien and 45,981 for Tokyo Dome. I'd rather use these numbers than the listed "max capacity" because these figures tend to be more realistic than that estimated number. Repeat for Tigers vs. Dragons and Dragons vs. Giants for each venue. Those percentages can then be put side by side with more meaning than the 45,701, 36,184, and 38,833 figures (which were skewed due to stadium capacity).

If you don't have time, I'll do it after work. Lunch is just ending.

Here's the break down of match up by venue so far this season:

99.951% Tigers vs. Dragons at Koshien (2 games)
99.950% Tigers vs. Giants at Koshien (4 games)
96.458% Dragons vs. Giants at Nagoya Dome (9 games)
96.419% Giants vs. Tigers at Tokyo Dome (9 games)
90.475% Giants vs. Dragons at Tokyo Dome (6 games)
90.372% Dragons vs. Tigers at Nagoya Dome (8 games)
87.335% Tigers vs. Dragons at Kyocera Dome (3 games)

The total lack of games at Koshien between the Tigers and Dragons make it kind of hard to say anything there. (Too small a data set.) The same goes for the single series between the two teams at Kyocera Dome (Osaka Dome) and with the Giants and Tigers at Koshien (rained out a lot).

I would say that Tigers fans aren't heading to Nagoya. Is that because so many Kansai-jin have moved to the Tokyo area but not Nagoya?

Remind me to crunch these numbers again at the end of the season. I think there is a tale to tell in here, but the unevenness of the data is currently hiding its secret. But so far it appears that the Giants are still the bigger draw on the road than the Tigers.

Some form of averaging would seem to be necessary. A judgment on the top ten set of figures doesn't tell the whole story either. This factors in freak figures for special games rather than the whole numbers for a series of games. This doesn't necessarily indicate an importance of Kanto area teams over the Tigers. What for example are the figures for the the other games in the series? Maybe revisiting the figures at the end of the season would give a more comprehensive picture.

What I noticed from the data is that for both the Tigers and Giants, their old rival was the top draw, clearly above the Dragons.

The most important thing for most Tigers fans is beating the Giants. It is the same for a lot of Giants fans (beating the Tigers). This rivalry outweighs a lot of other considerations.

- The most important thing for most Tigers fans is beating the Giants.

Correct! And that was what slaphitter was asking after all - not whether the demise of the Giants was good for NPB or not. The average fan couldn't care less about attendance, team profitability, marketing methods, and the rest of it. They basically want to see their team win. And second best, to see the Giants lose (and hopefully plunge embarrassingly into the cellar). Simple.

Actually the average Tigers fan listens to Hoshino. If Hoshino says the Giants condition is not good - its not good.

Yeees, but what's your point? Blind Freddy knows the condition of the Giants is poor. Surely you're not saying that Hoshino is advising the fans not to hate the Giants, or to take it easy on them because the future of NPB is at stake? That we should feel sorry for them?

The average fan was most likely a fan long before Hoshino ever put on a Tigers uniform, and he's not that influential that he'd be able to reverse such a fundamental part of what it is to be a Tigers fan. We're rejoicing at the downfall of the Giants. Could be different up there in the capital, but down here, we're ecstatic.

I started to rant on Pro Yakyu's failure to comprehend player development or marketing on the Guzman thread, but one of the basic problems behind it all is the strong Giants issue. (So I'll rant here!)

If the Giants are strong, all other teams know they can just sit back and wait for the stadium to fill whenever the Giants come to play.

If the Giants stink (esp. for a prolonged period), other teams might have to worry about player development, about investing in their product, about marketing their product, about aggressively distributing their content on the net, about other revenue streams that their product could unlock, about the future of their product., etc. As long as the Giants are strong and the seats fill, NPB (Central League) management doesn't have to bother with these little details.

Weak Giants won't mean NPB wakes up and faces these issues, or that it will be successful even if it does face these issues, but without a long slump for the Giants they'll probably never move on their own.

Some teams are never going to be able to match the Giants or Tigers for numbers of fans. Yakult and Yokohama are in the Giants' catchment area. They will always struggle to compete with the Giants who have the history and momentum behind them. Hiroshima are a small regional team, but with no conception of how to develop further. Furthermore, their fan base is much more concentrated than - say the the Tigers who have fans all over the country (Kansai people who move out of Kansai).

Whilst they can do a lot more to develop and increase their marketing, they will eventually hit a limit. They will continue to rely on the big teams like the Giants and the Tigers. Advertisers will also focus on the big teams and the bulk of the revenue will go to them. So whilst the Dragons can move on their own, the others have limited room for maneuver, and have to continue to rely on the big teams. If the Giants continue to stink then it is not good for the smaller teams.

Wow, impressive analysis from the JapaneseBaseball team based on my simple question. From my viewing of the stats it does seem that the Giants do draw more fans despite their horrible play, but only marginally so. One could conclude that team loyalty, or the opposite team spite, drives ticket sales rather than quality of play on the field. That explains Cubs fans.

Where Christopher's analysis breaks down is in assuming that the Midgets can't be replaced by another team. It is clear that the Tigers now are Japan's favorite team given TV ratings. I don't know the specifics, but suspect the Tigers outdraw the Giants now nationally. So in essence, the Tigers have replaced the Giants as Japan's favorite team. Some other team, maybe the Dragons, can replace the Giants easily as the second favorite team if they continue to win and take a Series or two in the next few years. Even Lotte had their moment in the sun, their signs were all over Tokyo last year. It does not look like they will repeat this year, so they may be considered a one hit wonder.

This is an interesting point, but I think a remote possibility. I assume you are considering a "team for Japan" strategy. If we can look at the potential candidates in the Central League, we really only have the Dragons and the Tigers. The Tigers are a regional team and any support they have outside Kansai is from Kansai people who live outside the region (and there are enormous amounts). However, they could not become a team for Japan like the Giants tried, and that does not seem to be part of their strategy.

The Dragons do not have the appeal of the two other teams and lack the marketing nous to make a go of a "Team for Japan" strategy. No Pacific League team can contemplate such a strategy.

The residual support from this strategy still rests with the Giants who, as I have said, have the fans all over Japan. A lot of these are dormant due to the poor performances of the Giants, but they are unlikely to switch. However, they are also unlikely to increase.

What is happening is a switch to more regional loyalties. Tigers have led the way with other teams following. However, they are under-developed with the Swallows and BayStars being under threat from the Giants who have not adopted this strategy. Where the Giants can lose out is if they do not adopt a regional approach and the smaller teams encroach on their fans. However, if the Giants adopt a regional strategy they will be the Kanto team and the Swallows and BayStars will be in the same situation as Buffaloes and BlueWave were compared to the Tigers. The Dragons have Chubu all to themselves and have a chance to wrap up that region.

As regional loyalties become more prevalent in the marketing strategies of the teams, you will see a switch from national support to local support. The Giants, if they join this trend (and I am sure they eventually will) will remain as one of the biggest teams no matter what. However, by the time everyone does adopt a regional strategy the "team for Japan" strategy will have become irrelevant.

Christopher,

Your point about the Hanshin fans that fill stadiums throughout Japan being from Kansai does not hold up. Many baseball fans in Tokyo have loyalties to other teams, some regional some not. If you live in Tokyo, love baseball, and want to support a team, Hanshin is an option if you like the marketing, the style of play, the fun the fans have at the game, think Hoshino is wonderful, etc. As I stated earlier, Hanshin fans at the Dome outnumber the Midget fans, this has been true over the last few years. Not all of them come from Osaka.

If your point was valid then we would see stadiums in opposing venues filled with Midget fans. Tokyo fans move around just like the rest of urban dwellers, but they do not have a presence outside of the Dome it seems. Their fan base is regional now, maybe Hokkaido is an exception, but now that the Hamsters are up there and playing well, no one may care about the midgets anymore in Sapparo.

Anyway your analysis leads to the same end point as I and others have stated above. The Midges' steep fall from dominance has invigorated the league, lead to new owners that are not 120 years old, given rise to regional upstarts such as Chiba, and made the game more fun for most fans. Last year was a fairytale come true, and if the Giants of old were in power still, Bobby Magic would have not happened at all.

An example is the NFL in the USA today, more popular than ever without a dynastic team. 7 different winners in the last 10 years of Super Bowl games.

- ... Not all of [the Hanshin fans] come from Osaka.

- If your point was valid then we would see stadiums in opposing venues filled with Midget fans. Tokyo fans move around just like the rest of urban dwellers, ...

Actually, my observations have been more in line with Christopher's on this point. The number of people who originated from Kansai working in the Tokyo area is generally far greater than Kanto-jin moving to Kansai. The company I work for as close to 400 employees. Over 100 work in the Tokyo office, and of them, people who moved to the Tokyo area from Kansai make up the second largest segment behind local hires (Saitama and Chiba mainly with a few from Kanagawa), followed by people raised in Hokkaido as the third largest group. I know that a number of employees who were raised in the Kanto area (mainly Saitama) have been sent (a few volunteered) to our Osaka and Hokkaido branches, but nowhere near matching the number of "immigrants" from those areas. (Of those that I knew well, none really followed baseball.)

It would be interesting to see data on migration habits withing Japan. In general, I sense people moving from rural areas toward the capital in hopes of getting a better job. Osaka vs. Tokyo comparisons are often put in terms of blue collar vs. white collar zones. Blue collar workers tend to be more passionate about their leisure activities (like baseball) than white collar workers (who often prefer other forms of entertainment). These are broad generalizations of population segments, but they also match what I've observed at least - that Kansai people move around more than Kanto people in search of better jobs, and they take their passion for the Tigers with them.

Regional loyalties play an important role in team loyalties in Japan - more so than other countries maybe. So whilst it is possible and does happen that people from outside Kansai support the Tigers, the main support comes from people who originated in Kansai. Osaka in particular is a merchant town and the people are used to moving around for business. They are also used to settling in different places.

Tokyo, as the capital, attracts people from other regions more than any other city - it is also the biggest city in Japan. However, people who do settle do not abandon their regional pride or identity. For Kansai this includes being a Tigers fan.

As Michael stated, Kanto-jin do not move around to the same extent - other cities in Japan do not have the same pulling power as Tokyo. Thus you do not have the same migration pattern out of Tokyo as you do into Tokyo. It is necessary for even Osaka based companies to have headquarters in Tokyo.

Touching on the attendance question again - most teams in the Central League rely on the Giants as well as the Tigers for their attendance. If you compare figures for when the Dragons, Carp, and BayStars are visiting to when the Giants visit you can easily see the difference. Of course part of this audience is made up of traveling fans, but you also have a portion of locally based Giants fans (the residual from the "team for Japan" era).

When television first wanted to show baseball games they approached the Nankai organization about televising the Hawks. The price the Hawks asked for was so high that the TV channels refused to pay. However, the Giants were willing to sign a deal for a much more reasonable price and the TV companies went with the Giants. Thus for a lot of people the only baseball team they saw growing up were the Giants. This coupled with the Yomiuri Shimbun's power and underhand tactics gave the Giants massive exposure all over Japan. Only in Kansai was this resisted, but even there there were enough Giants fans to fill half of Koshien (traveling and local). Kiyohara grew up in Kansai a Giants fan because that was all he saw on TV.

Nice posts immediately above.

Westbay, no doubt your sampling from your company captures movement trends in Japan. The Tokyo area is 1/4 of the Japanese population and the lion's share of commerce for the nation. People seek jobs. But the disparity in the fan base compared with even aggressive calculations on internal Japan movement is overwhelming. How many Midget fans come to a Hanshin game to see their team? It's nominal. Chunichi fans at least can be heard above the partisan crowd. So in essence, to paraphrase a bit, you can take the Midget fan out of Tokyo and you can take his loyalty out as well. The Midgets are a regional team now and have been clearly replaced by the Tigers as Japan branded baseball team.

Christopher, I agree it was TV and the Midgets winning nearly every year that built up the old fan base. Interesting that you mentioned Kiyohara, he to my mind symbolizes the Midgets style of baseball. He has had his moments, but at this point he is vastly overpaid, under performing, and really somewhat of a joke. Yet somehow the oyaji crowd still supports him.

The domination of Koshien by Hanshin fans is a relatively recent phenomena. I would say, though, that Chunichi fans are more noisy, giving a false impression of their numbers. You can hear BayStars fans as well, and they are even less in numbers.

I would also say that any attempt to define Tigers as the Japan brand baseball team is a bit ambitious. The only team to approach this recently was the national team "Oh Japan," and there was a conscious attempt to involve the whole country in the team (successfully I might add). Tigers commercials or commercials featuring Tigers players, for example, do not appear outside Kansai, even when they play in Kanto (Yokohama - TBS shows BayStars commercials, Tokyo - no commercials).

Giants have the potential to be a regional team, but have not yet made any attempt to become so. To be honest they are drifting and rather bereft of ideas, marketing or otherwise. Partially this is due to a lack of ability in their front office, but it's also due to an inability to adapt to the changed circumstances. Their current slogan on their helmets is "Giants pride." If it had been "Kanto pride" it would have had more impact and would have signaled the identification of the team with Kanto, but this is something that didn't happen.

In Kansai the common joke (with some truth) is that the TV output consists of Yoshimoto, Tigers, Yoshimoto, Tigers. By contrast there is practically nothing of the Giants on Kanto TV apart from the games which are often cut short. So, your statement that the Giants are a regional team needs to modified slightly to a statement that the Giants have the potential to become a regional team.

- So in essence, the Tigers have replaced the Giants as Japan's favorite team. Some other team, maybe the Dragons, can replace the Giants easily as the second favorite team if they continue to win and take a Series or two in the next few years.

I would question the assumption that Chunichi would overtake Yomiuri as Japan's second favorite team. To do that, Chunichi would need a winning business model, and right now they just don't have one. You can see the Chunichi Shimbun English Media Report for 2005 here. Just by looking through it, you can already get the point, that Chunichi doesn't have the ability to dethrone Yomiuri as one of Japan's most popular teams, when they are dependent on games against Yomiuri.

This is even more apparent by the CL wanting to cut the amount of inter-league games, as the CL teams are losing money by not playing as many games against the Giants and Tigers.

- If your point was valid then we would see stadiums in opposing venues filled with Midget fans. Tokyo fans move around just like the rest of urban dwellers, but they do not have a presence outside of the Dome it seems. Their fan base is regional now, maybe Hokkaido is an exception, but now that the Hamsters are up there and playing well, no one may care about the midgets anymore in Sapparo.


Even with Yomiuri playing as poor as they are, it is them and Hanshin that are what sell tickets for other CL teams. Why is this? Back to my first point, every CL team not called the Tigers or Giants have no business model.

Futhermore, taking the earlier stats that Westbay-san gave us about the attendances of the Dragons-Giants games earlier this year, it shows that the Giants are still a hot commodity and sell tickets for other CL teams. Additionally, here's the most recent attendance figures from the August 18-20th series that the Dragons and Giants played in at the Tokyo Dome:

8/18 - 42,517
8/19 - 44,049
8/20 - 41,860

[TBS Schedules - In Japanese]

As you can see from the season attendance stats, the Dragons are selling for the sole reason they are playing the Giants and Tigers. Take them out of the CL, and the Dragons and every other CL team wouldn't and couldn't survive a day.

- The Midges' steep fall from dominance has invigorated the league, lead to new owners that are not 120 years old, given rise to regional upstarts such as Chiba, and made the game more fun for most fans.

Yes, while I hate Nabestune as much as the next fan, Yomiuri's fall from grace isn't in the best interest of anyone until other CL teams (minus Hanshin) can succeed in achieving a successful business marketing model.

What needs to be done, is the NPB needs a real commissioner, not the joke that is Negoro, but I don't see him going anywhere. A commissioner with real power is what the NPB needs.

I agree, new energetic owners, like Son and Mikitani are good for the NPB, as it is less of the old guard in the NPB. I would also argue that a manager like Bobby Valentine is also causing change.

- An example is the NFL in the USA today, more popular than ever without a dynastic team. 7 different winners in the last 10 years of Super Bowl games.

The NFL example can also be misleading at times. While yes, the NFL has had many different winners in the playoffs each year, thanks to the implement of the salary cap, there are still some dynasties in the NFL, and just not in the 1980s (a la the San Fransisco 49ers or the 1990s versions of the Dallas Cowboys). The New England Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years, and Denver won 2 straight Super Bowls. Teams like Green Bay won in 1996, and were in the Super Bowl in 1997 and lost. New England was also in the 1996 SuperBowl.

- The Midgets are a regional team now and have been clearly replaced by the Tigers as Japan branded baseball team.


Again, I don't feel that Yomiuri is a regional team. Yomiuri is still filling the Tokyo Dome, and every team minus Hanshin is dependent on Yomiuri and Hanshin for ticket sales. So if that doesn't define what Japan's team is, I don't know what does.

- Interesting that you mentioned Kiyohara, he to my mind symbolizes the Midgets style of baseball.

Interesting you mentioned that, didn't Yomiuri release Kiyohara for Seung-Yeop Lee? So, I must say they are doing something right there.

- He has had his moments, but at this point he is vastly overpaid, under performing, and really somewhat of a joke. Yet somehow the oyaji crowd still supports him.


Kiyohara is a living legend, and is a future-HOFer, so that's why he's as popular as he is. Even, under performing fan favorites are still living legends and are supported by the crowd, regardless. Kiyohara's career is well deserving of the respect he is earned.

When I started this thread I wanted to gauge the popularity of the midgets based on TV stats. Westbay pulled up stadium attendance, which is misleading in two ways. First going to a game is an experience in itself for may, that is certainly true at Koshien. Second stadiums have a limited number of seats so unless you count the requests for tickets you don't really know which teams draw more. But TV does. And as the new post on the financial woes of the midgets show their TV ratings are in the toilet. So the assertion that the midgets are popular anymore is false. Note that the age of the average midget fan is over 60, carryover from the days when the midgets were the NPB.

Also your assertion that the midgets are filling the Dome is contradicted by the article which states that the midgets have trouble giving tickets away. And when Hanshin plays there, it's mostly Hanshin fans who buy the tickets. Again proving that Hanshin fans fill seats in Tokyo while the opposite just simply does not happen.

The league is better off now without the manipulation and corruption of the midgets in their glory days. Back then no other team mattered. Now the Tigers have eclipsed the Midgets and regional teams have a chance of winning it all. It's healthier all the way around.

Also, the point on bad marketing is true for all teams in the NPB including the Midgets. Again the article points that out clearly. Maybe the Tigers are the best of the lot, but they are not that good compared to U.S. teams such as the Oakland A's (saw them last week).

And last on Kiyohara, no past accomplishments can excuse a .220 batting average and a total inability to hit a curve ball anymore. He should be in the JHOF now, and off the field. He is playing now not because of his baseball skills but more for his image to the rest of the over the hill oyaji crowd who know their best days are behind them.

The following Mainichi Daily News article gives an interesting account of the Giants' woes: Mountain of money woes dwarves once-mighty Giants.

From the last line of the article it appears that the Giants realize they need help. Which can only be of benefit to the game. Might make them lose a little of their swagger.

- And last on Kiyohara, no past accomplishments can excuse a .220 batting average and a total inability to hit a curve ball anymore. He should be in the JHOF now, and off the field. He is playing now not because of his baseball skills but more for his image to the rest of the over the hill oyaji crowd who know their best days are behind them.

Kiyohara's second on Orix in slugging for players with 150+ AB and is second in OBP as well. What's so horrible about that? He's a shadow of his former self, but he is still a productive player.

Z-man, you make some very good points, but you over-emphasize and over-simplify your arguments. Certainly TV figures are down, but this does not necessarily reflect the popularity of the team or it's number of supporters. Remember, these figures are national viewing figures and what is taking place in Japan is a fragmentation of viewing across the board. It is becoming more regional and this trend is impacting on the Giants' viewing figures just as much as the falling popularity.

The better indicator of popularity is how many people go to the stadium, not watch TV. To get to a stadium you need to make an effort, and Giants supporters are still coming to the stadium in large numbers and bumping up the numbers of other teams when the Giants travel.

Incidentally, Hanshin fans do not outnumber Giants fans at Tokyo dome - it is still 50/50.

A comment on Tigers' marketing - this is on a par with American teams. Quite simply, they have their region locked in and no one can make any dent in the level of popularity. Their presence is all over the region and is considered part of the natural environment. This is part of a unique marketing model and is based on several hundred years of history - clubs like the Oakland A's cannot really compare to this.

- First going to a game is an experience in itself for may, that is certainly true at Koshien. Second stadiums have a limited number of seats so unless you count the requests for tickets you don't really know which teams draw more. But TV does. And as the new post on the financial woes of the midgets show their TV ratings are in the toilet. So the assertion that the midgets are popular anymore is false.

Yes, TV ratings are one part of the spectrum, but so is stadium attendance, though the Yomiuri fan base is still filling the Tokyo Dome and every other CL team needs Yomiuri and Hanshin as their economic model, as there is none.

Remember, the fans are a better indicator of a team's popularity, as they are the ones actually paying to watch the team play. Yomiuri fans are still filling the Dome. TV ratings also you have to remember are all over Japan, and not necessarily regional.

-Note that the age of the average midget fan is over 60, carryover from the days when the midgets were the NPB.

It would be interesting to know where you got that fact from. Any sources or citations for this? Or is this just your apparent Giants' bashing that you have shown all over the forums?

- And when Hanshin plays there, it's mostly Hanshin fans who buy the tickets.

Not quite there. It's still basically equal. Yomiuri's fanbase hasn't gone anywhere. It's as said below, it's still 50/50.

- It's healthier all the way around.

Yes, while Nabestune's power is down some, it is foolish to think that the CL is rid of Nabestune's iron-grip. As we know with Watanabe, he isn't disappearing.

Plus, I think we can question whether the league is better off with a weak Yomiuri. Without a strong Yomiuri team, every other CL team minus Hanshin is suffering attendance wise. No CL team except the Tigers and Giants have a successful business model. If so, they wouldn't be dependent on games against Hanshin and Yomiuri.

- Maybe the Tigers are the best of the lot, but they are not that good compared to U.S. teams such as the Oakland A's (saw them last week).

Either you're misinformed or just throwing out blatant false truths, the A's marketing in Oakland isn't as good as it looks because of the Giants' territorial rights for the SF region. The San Francisco Giants almost moved to Tampa Bay because of the competition they put on the A's, the only reason was former owner, Wayne Huizenga, blocked the move because the team would be so close to Miami. Plus, the A's have given up moving to San Jose, because of the same problem of competition with the SF Giants.

I must close out by saying that you're very confused about the true marketing in the NPB, or are just here to bash Yomiuri, and don't want to read anything else that tells you otherwise.

Granted that it is hard to follow a train of thought via a electronic board, but the above post seems to have have boarded that train going the wrong direction.

The fact is that the Midgets' TV ratings prove that they have lost their national stature. That is the point.

The average age of the Midgets fan is listed in the Manichi article. You may want to read it to get a better fix on the current financial state of that team. It is giving tickets away as I stated above. That is not happening in Osaka with the Tigers, I can only wish that were the case.

Regarding baseball marketing, your statements about the Giants in SF are not logical. I think you mixed up the names of the teams but I am not sure. The Giants historically have outdrawn the A's in Oakland and continue to do so. In marketing terms they were the first mover in that market. They also have a lovely stadium while the A's play in a football arena. However the A's are a successful franchise that fields a quality team year in and out, and through many marketing programs makes going to their games a family event and throughly enjoyable. They are a model small market franchise. Your superficial Google-led analysis of them is totally wrong.

In summary I find find that your posts are similar to the story of the watchmaker who can talk endlessly about the mechanism of a watch but is unable to tell time. Wake up! The Midgets are failing franchise with an an old fan base. They could come back at some point, but how they can do that is not clear, most certainly not clear to their management. Those guys want to watch Kiyohara strike out repeatedly.

- The average age of the Midgets fan is listed in the Manichi article. You may want to read it to get a better fix on the current financial state of that team. It is giving tickets away as I stated above. That is not happening in Osaka with the Tigers, I can only wish that were the case

You also failed to mention that the whole article quoted a daily weekly sports-tabloid rag, which you have to read with a grain of salt. Maybe you've heard of yellow journalism, if not maybe it's time to go back to understand journalism. Your points are dancing around in circles.

Still, the so-called article fails to take into account stadium attendance figures. TV figures are only one part of the equation. Stadium attendance will continue to be more reflective of a team's popularity, as the Giants are still filling the Tokyo Dome. You can't deny this. It's futile. The CL can't live without Yomiuri, you and I both know it.

- The fact is that the Midgets' TV ratings prove that they have lost their national stature. That is the point.

The thesis of this topic isn't TV ratings either, it is why Yomiuri has declined into the basement. You have a bias against Yomiuri, this is just a useless fact thrown into the equation.

All we need to know is that Yomiuri hasn't developed their minor-league system, because there is a pressure to win now, not later.

- Regarding baseball marketing, your statements about the Giants in SF are not logical. I think you mixed up the names of the teams but I am not sure. The Giants historically have outdrawn the A's in Oakland and continue to do so. In marketing terms they were the first mover in that market. They also have a lovely stadium while the A's play in a football arena. However the A's are a successful franchise that fields a quality team year in and out, and through many marketing programs makes going to their games a family event and throughly enjoyable. They are a model small market franchise. Your superficial Google-led analysis of them is totally wrong.

The A's ownership has tried to move the A's for years now to San Jose, but failed. They may have successful marketing skills on the field, but they still aren't competing with San Francisco, because if they were, would they need to move?

- In summary I find find that your posts are similar to the story of the watchmaker who can talk endlessly about the mechanism of a watch but is unable to tell time. Wake up!

In conclusion, so far all I've seen from you is a person out of touch with the true realities of economics in baseball. You just plain out don't understand them, don't care if Yomiuri is failing on the field (while still selling out), every other team minus Hanshin relies on them to sell tickets, and without Yomiuri the CL would collapse very quick.

Though again, many fans don't understand the economics of baseball.

- Those guys want to watch Kiyohara strike out repeatedly.

Drop Kiyohara, it isn't making your point look any better. Answer the question, didn't Yomiuri release Kiyohara and sign Seung-Yeop Lee? Or am I living in a parallel universe? Starting to wonder here.

z-man, John's points are very sound. You need to be very careful when quoting from newspapers. Figures are frequently dressed up or even invented entirely. Accuracy is not allowed to get in the way of a good story and checking is often minimal. An analysis of the actual demographics of Giants fans would actually give a far lower average age for them.

TV figures are not a reasonable indicator of popularity. They are affected by too many other factors, but one I will mention is history. Historically there wasn't much on TV so the Giants games drew higher figures. Now with the regional fragmentation of viewing and the greater range of viewing options (note - this includes satellite as well) baseball has to compete with more. The Giants figures were bound to fall anyway, and the poor performance accelerated this trend. However, their regional base is still strong enough for them to be one of the two driving forces of Japanese baseball. They fill their ground and they provide a large part of the revenue of four of the other teams in the Central League. They also provide a notable portion of Pacific League revenue (along with the Tigers).

They will never again be the "team for Japan," but they can be the "team for Kanto." As I noted in an earlier post, it is the Tigers/Giants rivalry which drives the Central League and allows it to dominate the Pacific League. Take one of these two teams away and you would have two Pacific Leagues where money is thrown down the drain for advertising purposes.

Brooks, you are, to answer your last question.

I am glad you took the time to read the Mainichi article you missed before, although it was referenced many times in this thread.

Nowhere have I advocated that the Midgets leave the CL. Most of what I have advocated for is recognizing reality when in comes to that team, instead of living in the past. Hence the d***ing example of Kiyohara, long past his prime, continuing to play for the Midgets last year and for Orix this year.

Saying TV ratings don't matter to any professional team is silly. Money comes from TV for sports and ratings drive advertising rates. Welcome to the not so new dynamic that drives sport, been this way since the 1970s. Sports economics 101.

Anyway, its the run up to the playoffs now. An exciting time for baseball and made all the better with the Midgets once again failing despite their manipulation of baseball and huge salary structure. This way who the final team standing at the end of the Japan Series is completely unknown. Hard for some to accept, but better for baseball in Japan.

- Saying TV ratings don't matter to any professional team is silly. Money comes from TV for sports and ratings drive advertising rates. Welcome to the not so new dynamic that drives sport, been this way since the 1970s. Sports economics 101.

TV ratings only matter to a extent, as we all know Yomiuri is still filling the Dome, are they or they not?

Second off, TV ratings aren't exactly accurate, as they aren't regional based or aren't a good indicator of a team's popularity.

Yomiuri still has money and plenty of it. Yomiuri has been able to sign big-name free agents. Money and revenue aren't their problem. Something else is.

What is their problem? They have no minor league development, and had to sign Arias in an emergency, which fell right in their face.

To say Yomiuri is desperately hurting financial wise is hard to believe. TV ratings might have gone down, but then again, they're not a accurate representation of team popularity to start out with, as the fans actually showing up to the Big Egg are more representative of team popularity, and boy are they still popular.

z-man, no one said TV ratings didn't matter - just that they were not a true indicator of popularity. As I noted before, you tend to over-simplify and this is again evident in your latest post. Furthermore if you are going to use a derogatory term for the Giants, do at least use the correct one (it's gomeiuri, not the midgets).

The question of the Giants' popularity is an important one to the other teams in the Central League, and it matters for revenue generation. The recent reduction in Inter-league games is because of the loss to the Central League of revenue from Giants and Tigers matches. A realistic appreciation of the importance that the Giants still have for the Central League, and the whole of Japanese baseball, would give your points more credibility.

- ... if you are going to use a derogatory term for the Giants, do at least use the correct one (it's gomeiuri, not the midgets).

Thanks for the Japanese lesson, it will come in handy when I start posting on nihongo sites. In the meantime I will stick with English at this site.

- The question of the Giants' popularity is an important one to the other teams in the Central League, and it matters for revenue generation. The recent reduction in Inter-league games is because of the loss to the Central League of revenue from Giants and Tigers matches. A realistic appreciation of the importance that the Giants still have for the Central League, and the whole of Japanese baseball, would give your points more credibility.

I understood the inter-league games to be a great success despite many who thought otherwise when it started. It is a huge success in the U.S. It does have revenue sharing implications, such as the Midgets having to share their revenue with many teams now and not keep as much as they were able to have (steal) in the past.

So here is the wrap up, the Midgets are indeed a troubled franchise with a dwindling fan base that basically lives on its past success. People love to see them lose outside of the Tokyo Dome, but even there half the fans are cheering for the other team.

Can they come back from near death? Sure. But it won't be easy as they can't control the NPB as they use to do, year in and year out. And that is much, much healthier for Japanese baseball.

A Japan Series with the Hamsters and either the Dragons or the Tigers, now that's terrific.

Your characterization of "near death" seems a lot more wishful thinking than honest analysis. Heaven forbid the Giants have a great year next year. Some of what has been said might just seem a bit ridiculous in retrospect.

They are losing money, giving tickets away to fill the Dome, are no longer a competitive team, and the TV ratings are so bad that TV networks are dropping them. For any team that is serious, but for the over-hyped but historic franchise that is the Y. Midgets, this does define near-death. IMHO.

- Thanks for the Japanese lesson, it will come in handy when I start posting on nihongo sites. In the meantime I will stick with English at this site.

In which case the name of the team is the Yomiuri Giants, not the midgets.

The inter-league series does not have revenue implications for the Giants because if they continue to draw crowds they will draw them no matter what teams they play. Where it does have implications is for other Central League teams (bar the Tigers) who rely on the major portion of their income from the Giants and Tigers. Because the games for these two teams are less, the income for the other Central League teams is reduced. The pressure for less inter-league games is mainly from the other four teams in the Central League who do not have adequate marketing skills to grow their fan base. Of the Central League only Tigers and Giants have benefited because of their marketing strategies - the other teams have not, and in fact the inter-league has benefited the Pacific League more than them because it has had access to Tigers and Giants games.

However, the Giants are not in a near death state by a long way yet. They have an enormous fan base and are a potential regional powerhouse. What has been lacking from your posts is an understanding of how the economics of NPB works and an appreciation of the reality. The Giants are important for the Central League because they bring large amounts of revenue when they visit (just as the Tigers are) and they will continue to remain a vital part of the success of the league for a long time to come. All the wishful thinking in the world won't change this point. There will be no "team for Japan" anymore, but if the Giants do decline then the implications for the Central League are serious.

- The pressure for less inter-league games is mainly from the other four teams in the Central League who do not have adequate marketing skills to grow their fan base.

I'm not sure the Chunichi front office would necessarily agree with you there.

And I think you exaggerate the effect of Hanshin's marketing prowess. In my view it's more of a bottom-up process, emanating from both the fans, the vendors, and the media. Of course the Tigers haven't done much wrong, marketing-wise, to undermine their number one position in Kansai, but their job is made a whole lot easier with such a solid fan base - and energetic vendors who are always looking for the next big product. Not to mention all the free publicity they receive in the media.

For example, those Tiger Shops you've raved about in another post - they're not run by the Tigers, but by independent licensees. They wouldn't exist if the demand wasn't there, or if the licensees didn't have the motivation to sell. It's not all marketing on the part of the Tigers.

Compare that to Orix (both as the BlueWave and now Buffaloes), which actually does a decent marketing job in this part of the world. They are always going to be playing second fiddle to the Tigers no matter what they do. They could even hire, you, Christopher, and they'd still fail. The problem for them is not marketing per se, but a limited fan base and the dominance of the Tigers in the region.

If you take a look at Chunichi's marketing it lacks flair and fails to generate any momentum. I mentioned the helmet sponsorship example earlier, but this is a prime illustration of how mediocre and ineffective it actually is. Chunichi needs the Tigers and Giants just as much as the rest of the Central League.

Marketing isn't necessarily about creating a market through active measures. Quite often it's how you position yourself and how you retain your share of the market. The ideal situation (like that of the Tigers) is when you don't have to do too much because your brand is so strong. People come to you and you cherry pick the best ideas which will continue your dominance. You get them to put the effort in, but you reap the benefits. However, even here you need to defend and reinforce the position. This is what the Tigers do very well. Aggressive and active marketing (which I think is what you see as marketing) is only part of marketing, not the whole thing, holding on to it and consolidating it are also vital.

Orix's policy from the point of view of marketing is not marketing share but Orix brand name recognition. The name recognition of Orix is important here, not the baseball team, and the strategy of having a baseball team increases this recognition. This is not a strategy to increase fan base and so it really doesn't matter what they do in that respect. If they wanted to increase fan numbers in Kansai they would have to fight against embedded regional identity and it would be a very expensive battle which would almost certainly fail.

- If you take a look at Chunichi's marketing it lacks flair ...

Yes, that's actually something I was saying the other day to someone. But if the aim is to fill Nagoya Dome, or build up a local identity, they appear to be doing something right. Maybe they don't need flair in Nagoya. I mean, it is Nagoya after all. Maybe they're not following the strategy that you would prescribe for them, but neither are they quite the marketing basket case you seem to think they are.

- Aggressive and active marketing (which I think is what you see as marketing) is only part of marketing, not the whole thing ...

Well no. Actually from your posts, I thought that's what you thought it was! What I'm saying is that the Tigers are doing exactly what they should be doing - but I wouldn't exaggerate their marketing prowess vis a vis the other teams in a starry-eyed sort of way. Whatever the Tigers do in the way of marketing is secondary to the other inherent advantages the club enjoys.

- This is not a strategy to increase fan base and so it really doesn't matter what they do in that respect.

Well I was speaking about the marketing efforts of the team as a team, not the owners as a finance company. There is a difference. And I'm just saying that this compares favorably with other efforts I've seen. I know you don't see that up there in Tokyo, so that's why I thought I should mention it.

- But if the aim is to fill Nagoya Dome, or build up a local identity, they appear to be doing something right. Maybe they don't need flair in Nagoya. I mean, it is Nagoya after all.

The Dragons need the Tigers and Giants to fill Nagoya Dome. They may be a local team, but their lock on the region is poor. Their marketing does not address this aspect at all and, in fact, in this area is complacent. (Though what you can do with Gifu escapes me.) The unfortunate thing is that they have the potential to do exactly what Tigers have done in Kansai if they had any nous. Take the Tigers and Giants away from the Dragons and they become an expensive club with very little pull. As you said, it is Nagoya.

- I wouldn't exaggerate their marketing prowess vis a vis the other teams in a starry-eyed sort of way. Whatever the Tigers do in the way of marketing is secondary to the other inherent advantages the club enjoys.

If an organization is doing exactly what it should then it has to have good marketing. We must also be honest here - the Tigers are miles better than any club in Japan. Remember, their product licensing and product range generates money for the club - it doesn't just increase exposure. The product range covers all age groups with something for everyone. Pink goods for female fans - what other teams do this? This is what good marketing should do.

- Well I was speaking about the marketing efforts of the team as a team, not the owners as a finance company. There is a difference. And I'm just saying that this compares favorably with other efforts I've seen. I know you don't see that up there in Tokyo, so that's why I thought I should mention it.

I visit Osaka quite a bit, so I do get to see Orix marketing. Certainly they are more active than Kintetsu ever were. However, Orix as a team cannot reach out to the non-Tigers Osakans. It did not manage to bring along the Kintetsu fans to any great degree, and the hiring of Kiyohara was just for publicity not for any boost to the team's chances. When your popularity is based on a fading star it's clear that you really are only interested in brand name recognition.

Well I'm not exactly sure how a couple of trips to Osaka every year to visit relatives or whatever would expose you to the full extent of the Orix Buffaloes' marketing efforts. It's just not Kiyohara. But I'll let that rest.

To be honest, I don't think you understand how Tigers' products come into being. The ideas come from the vendors and licensees, not the Hanshin organization. Sharp Sangyo, SSK, Youngblood, and the others all approach Hanshin with their proposals first, and approval is given next. It's a bottom up process, as I said. It's not some marketing whiz at Hanshin saying, "Ok, this year let's do pink. Let's find a manufacturer." No, it's the other way round.

Now, I'll grant you that they coordinate the process well, but it's not creative genius at work here, it's management competence - that's all. The creativity comes from the many small companies with the ideas (including the pink jerseys). I've been involved in the process myself, so I know how it works.

There's competence and good coordination, sure, but let's face it, any club which enjoyed the same fan loyalty, media coverage, and club tradition would probably do as well. They're not doing anything spectacular, and as I said, their marketing prowess should not be exaggerated. It's good, but not brilliant - that's all I'm saying.

Actually, it's more than a couple of times a year, but as a consultant you learn to assess things very quickly - it's one of the skills you need.

The face of Orix is Kiyohara and possibly Nakamura - beyond that there is nothing. Shops selling Orix goods also sell equal amounts of, if not more, Tigers goods. Guess which people tend to buy?

You are right of course about the bottom up pressure, but I have seen organizations really mess this up. To exploit this you really do need to be on the ball (excuse the pun) marketing wise.

A few words about good marketing for big organizations - it's exactly as you describe - good management, nothing more - nothing less. If you are licensing products then it becomes brand management and this is the situation the Tigers are in. I do think you maybe misunderstand marketing at this level - it's not romantic, it's not about creativity (others provide that) - it's all about numbers and brand image. The skill lies in controlling the image. For companies wanting to market Tigers goods the coveted item is the award of the HT sticker. With this their product is legitimate and most fans will not buy without it. The Tigers control their image and the product range reflects the image they want to project.

Your account is also incomplete - they do commission goods. The Okinawan T-shirts are a case in point. Now you may not consider this a brilliant strategy, but in fact it is probably the most difficult strategy to pull off for a marketing person. When you have a bottom up approach the bottom is very sensitive to any interference or exploitation. How you control the image without alienating the fans (or grassroots) or directing it is a major issue. If it's good then you don't notice the marketing aspect - it seems like good, competent management. But believe me, it is not easy to accomplish at all.