Nippon Series Predictions: Dragons vs. Fighters

The Fighters are on a high now and playing with a lot more composure than I expected, but I'm still predicting the Dragons in this one. With their experienced pitching, solid bullpen, and power, I'm calling the Dragons in 6. I hope I'm wrong, but that's just my prediction.

I'm predicting the Fighters, but that's more like "I'm rooting for the Fighters" than anything else.

It's true, I think the Dragons are on average an older team than the Fighters, aren't they? I mean, Fukudome's a youngster compared to most of the rest of the lineup, and he's 29. Some of the pitchers are younger (Asakura, Nakata), but then they're balanced out by Masa Yamamoto. Whereas the Fighters have younger guys like Hichori Morimoto, Kensuke Tanaka, and Shinya Tsuruoka in their lineup, and pitchers like Darvish, Yagi, etc. Kanemura and Micheal might be the older guys on the pitching staff at the age of 30.

So we'll see. I think it'll be interesting either way, that's for sure!

I think the Dragons are a great team, but I think now they aren't in good condition while the Fighters are at the peak moment of the season. So I'm predicting in favor of the Fighters, but will be very difficult for sure.

Today I read in the Hokkaido edition of Nikkan Sports that Kanemura will play in the Nippon Series. Darvish, Yagi, Takeda Masaru, and Kanemura will be ready for the Nippon Series. That's really a good news for us Deanna.

Yes, We'll see, but it'll be interesting sure!

It may be an effect of watching Chunichi destroy Hanshin so many times during the season, but I think the Central League champions have a better all-around team than Nippon Ham.

The offensive side might be even, but the Dragons' rotation is more experienced and has a great closer in Iwase.

I'll be rooting for the Fighters, but I'm picking Chunichi in 6.

- I think the Dragons are a great team, but I think now they aren't in good condition while the Fighters are at the peak moment of the season.

You're right and you're wrong about the Dragons, but you're right about the most important Dragon in this Japan Series: Kenshin Kawakami. He's 2-5 with a no-decision in his last 8 starts, and while he pitches in front of a great defense, that defense can't protect him if he keeps giving up home runs at the rate he has been since late August.

That said, he's experienced, as are most of the other Dragons, so it probably won't rattle him as much if he gets rocked than if Yagi or Darvish get into trouble. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

Yeah, Kawakami's been scary lately. Wearing down, or injured, or just unlucky? I haven't seen any of the games, just the box scores.

But, look at Masa Yamamoto. In his last 9 starts he's 6-1 with two no-decisions, and a no-hitter to boot. He's heading into this period pretty strong.

The Fighters did beat the Dragons 4 games to 2 during inter-league this year, though they were on the whole very close games.

I don't know how most Japanese teams approach a 7-game series, if 3-man rotations are common, but I like the idea of going Kawakami/Yamamoto/Asakura, with Nakata and Satoh likely as middle relievers. Nakata in particular has pitched well lately, but he's also capable of imploding, so I'd rather see him pitch 1-2 innings a game, possibly to set up Iwase.

I haven't seen a lot of Nippon Ham, but I venture to guess that if it becomes a battle of bullpens, Chunichi would win. Nippon Ham, I'm sure, is hoping that Darvish/Yagi/Kanemura go the distance every game, or at least 8 to go directly to former Twin Micheal Nakamura. Those 3 starters are definitely capable of that.

P.S. It's "only" against Yokohama, but in 3 innings of relief, Kawakami gave up only one hit, faced the minimum 9 batters, and amassed 5 Ks. That's what the Dragons need to see out of Kawakami, but I still say the key for the Dragons to win the series is to score many runs to shake the confidence of Darvish and Yagi.

I'm biased, but I say Drags in six.

• I think Dragons have the edge in defense, a slight edge in power, slight advantage in speed.
• Aside from Yamamoto, the Drags' starters weren't very impressive the last couple of weeks of the season, so advantage Fighters. Hopefully the Dragons' middlemen will be able to cover any shortcomings there.
• The Dragons have a clear edge in middle relief, but that won't matter unless they chase the Fighters' starters.
• I haven't seen the Fighters' Nakamura much, but 39 saves is not shabby at all (one run in 4 and 1/2 against the Drags). Let's call the closers even.
• Catcher? How's Tsuruoka? Tanishige's average keeps going down, but he is experienced and still calls a mean game while throwing runners out.
• The Dragons have two solid advantages in that the series starts in Nagoya, and that up to four games will be in the CL park without the DH.
• I think Chunichi has an edge in its bench (including former Fighters Narahara and Ueda), which will hopefully be amplified by more games being in the CL park.
• Edge to Chunichi for experience, taking the 2004 series to seven games.
• Not sure how Hillman and Ochiai compare.

As Deanna said, the Drags lost the inter-league series two games to four. Four of the games were decided by one run, three went extra innings, and two were sayonaya wins for the Fighters.

Hmm. I said a slight edge to the Drags for power, but in their six games together the Drags hit only one HR to six for the Fighters. But total hits were about even at 56 for the Drags to 58 for the Fighters.

This should be interesting!

If you think the Dragons winning the Central League title was the end of me expecting the worst to happen to my teams - you don't know Minnesota sports well enough. My paranoid self says Fighters in 6.

But seriously, Game 1 will be key. We need to see how Kawakami will do before anyone can really get a feel for this series. IMO Nippon Ham is the better team right now, but Chunichi will be more steady and consistent, and they will win if they can bring Nippon Ham back down to Earth. If Game 1 is Kawakami vs. Darvish, get ready for one of those "first team to make a mistake loses" games. Let's just say I won't be confident, even with a big lead, unless it's the 9th and Iwase's pitching for the save.

Dragons in 5 if Kawakami steps his game back up. Nippon Ham in 7 if he doesn't.

Pretty tough one to call, and I don't have a strong gut feeling about it. I think the Dragons are the deeper team, and that usually predicates success, but the Fighters have a touch of inspiration (luck, spirit, "wa"?) that should not be overlooked. My best guess is Chunichi in 6 games.

But as regards my predictions, I'll say to Dragsfan: Hmm, you grew up in Minnesota. Well, I grew up in Baltimore. Ten years old in 1969. Everybody repeat after me (and my Dad, and Grand-dad, and everyone I knew): "Those Mets are no good. Our Birds will sweep 'em." Uh-huh.

Haha, Firearm grew up there I think, but I went to college there long enough to feel the mood. Even the Metrodome motto is (was?) defensive: "We like it here!"

"We like it here" was mostly a Twins bit in the early 1990s. Well, if 2 of the 3 tenants (Twins and Gopher football) got bills for a new stadium passed, then maybe they don't like it there so much.

And yes, I'm a born and raised Minnesotan. And I'm trying to purge my inner Minnesotan while I'm here.

But back to the Japan Series, even when I'm not paranoid I still say the Fighters win. That's a very good thing for Dragons fans, though. And how bad will it feel to the losing team of this Series? The loser will own the longest Japan Series title drought by a couple light years.

I grew up in Philadelphia, and let me say, I've only been to one World Series game in my life, and it was in 1983.

I think I still hate the Orioles from that experience. Scarred for life.

So, I don't know, anyway. The Fighters are definitely on a crazy run right now - somewhat like the Chiba Lotte Marines were last year at this time. I've looked at the numbers and on the season as a whole, the Dragons definitely come out ahead in almost every category, but it's true that they've been slightly losing steam while the Fighters have been gaining steam, maybe a result of being older/younger. On the other hand, Tyrone Woods is a beast. I fear him.

It'll definitely be more interesting than the so-called World Series (without those no-good Mets) that'll also start this weekend.

Having lived on Okinawa from 1998-2004 I saw plenty of Dragons and Fighters spring camp. I also met Trey Hillman and attended opening night in Sapporo Dome April 2, 2004. For personal reasons I want the Fighters to win, besides they have the pitching going right now and that should carry them. Either way, the Series should be a good one. I miss Yakyu!