Tigers' Pitching Rotation

- What can be done about the Tigers' abysmal (and getting worse) pitching?

I'm not exactly sure really. It might end up being one of those long stretches that Hanshin might have to live with for this season. I just don't see many alternatives to who Hanshin has right now.

There's Yan in the minors right now, but he's struggled with control so far and doesn't look all that attractive. Nohmi and Shimoyangi have been less than stellar to this point.

All I can say is that it looks like Hanshin can wait it out. There still is a long time left in the season. As we speak, Hanshin is still only 1 game behind the 3rd place Carp. It could be much worse for Hanshin.

- Maybe time to consider replacing coaches?

Yes, I admit Hanshin's pitching has been abysmal this year, no doubt about that. But is changing the coaches really going to magically make the pitchers pitch better all of sudden?

If Tiger pitching is struggling now, how are new coaches going to magically help? The pitchers obviously need to work through these problems. The coaches can only do so much. The pitcher also has to carry his weight, too, and make the proper adjustments, which so far Hanshin's pitchers haven't done this season.

Not magically, but maybe a more proactive approach would bring about an improvement. It seems that every pitcher gradually deteriorates until he is sent down to ni-gun. For example, Kojima actually started the season quite well but got worse.

There seem to be too many problems with too many pitchers to blame it entirely on the pitchers. The coaches don't seem to be doing their jobs either. Yan's baulk problem should have been corrected at the beginning of the season - it has only just been addressed.

Yeah, it's a shame, considering that if we can get to JFK, er JKF, we usually have a great chance of winning. Missing out on Kuroda is really starting to hurt us. At first, I didn't mind losing Igawa so much, since he was a whiner and couldn't win big games. But we are definitely missing our ace now.

Everyone that seems to offer hope has gone inconsistent. Sugiyma had some good early starts and now is awful. Nakamura looked like he would give us hope, then he got hammered by Rakuten this week. Vogelsong has not been bad, but is now injured and also doesn't get too deep into games.

I don't see a solution, other than hoping people just start clicking. Darwin looked promising in a start last week. Like Yan, he seems too shaky during jams, but he should at least get some more starts to see what he has.

Maybe Tigers fans should start a letter-writing campaign telling Kuroda how much we need him! It worked on him before. If this is my only solution, I guess I'm desperate!

When you fire your coaching staff, it's usually a sign of desperation. It would seem a little weird to do that when your team is in equal third (as the Tigers are tonight) and thus on track to make the playoffs.

Yes, but how did they win? A walk in and dead ball. Whilst this was welcome, it doesn't seem encouraging for the future. We really can't count on it happening too often.

Yeah, I was there tonight and another bizarre game. An encouraging start by Ue... (forgot the name), so hopefully more of this to come.

It was typical, though. Even when they get a quality start, they just couldn't score. We were lucky that Collins took Hirano out, as dating back to the game at Skymark, I think he had about 14 or more consecutive scoreless innings against us.

On a less positive note, Okada made a fool out of himself, shoving an umpire after a fruitless argument. Sure the team needs to be fired up, but this doesn't do the trick. He almost ruined the game, as just as we got some momentum in the 9th, we could have lost it from the rain that started falling heavy. His 20-30 minute charade could have cost us the game.

Christopher, you really are exasperating. One single game does not count for much. But if you really want to focus on this one win, then how exactly did they win? First by keeping the other team to one run over nine innings (good defense), and then loading the bases in the ninth (good batting). And only then did they win on the walk (a disciplined at-bat from Fujimoto) and hit batter (Orix's mistake). You take the good with the bad. Things like this tend to even out over the season, and they were overdue for some luck.

Why are you always such a sourpuss?

No, one single game doesn't count for much, but it can be symptomatic when considered in relation to all the other games. If Orix hadn't panicked, then they would have won because Tigers' batting wasn't there. Orix made the mistakes and Tigers profited from them, but (as you highlighted in another thread) they do not have the ability to hit in clutch situations. Being complacent and talking about the whole season isn't actually an approach to fix the problems.

This is why I am wondering whether new coaches are needed. Everything looks too reactive at the moment. No one seems to be talking to the players and helping them to deal with their problems proactively. In a recent interview, O'Malley mentioned that when he was in Japan he helped Imaoka deal with some bad habits he had developed. Imaoka's batting improved around that time. This very much suggests that the batting coaching team is not doing much.

The pitching team is the same - there is no way that all the Tigers pitchers can be so poor. However, they all rapidly deteriorate and get sent down to ni-gun. Uezono didn't even figure on the lineup at the beginning of the season, and even though he was solid, he was unspectacular and you get the impression that Tigers are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Problems are left unaddressed for too long - Yan's baulk problem and Vogelsong's pitch count for example. No, the coaching team does need to become more proactive and actually look at doing some work on basics. As you point out, currently they are third, but this is not likely to last at the moment. More needs to be done to cement this position, otherwise they will lose it.

I don't have a problem bringing in O'Malley or anyone else to work with individual players, if that's what's required - anything that gives them a leg-up. What I object to is this notion that whenever there's a problem you always need to do something dramatic to fix it.

Sure, the Tigers haven't been playing well, but to place the blame squarely on the coaching staff and demand their heads is an extreme approach, and indicates that you haven't spent much time in a dugout. Coaches do the best they can, but it's not like snapping your fingers and having the players respond like magic. It simply doesn't work that way.

The fact of the matter is that the Tigers are still in the game, in spite of your many dire predictions over the past few weeks. Howling for the coaches' blood won't do much to help the cause, I'm afraid.

The question is not whether the Tigers are still in the game, but whether they can remain in the game. This latter question is more difficult and is what I am attempting to address. I am not blaming the coaching staff entirely, but given the amount of freedom players are allowed, I am placing a fair amount of blame on them. Coaching can be a matter of snapping ones fingers or it can be a long haul.

However, the reality at the moment is that the coaching is obstructing the players. For example, if Akahoshi (or whoever is leadoff) gets on base Sekimoto bunts. This automatically generates at least one out without necessarily leading to a score. Sekimoto can actually hit quite well, but without him trying, one ends up with one out.

Akahoshi is kept under quite tight control by the coaches as are all the players. This, of course, eliminates some errors, but it also eliminates risk taking. Unless the Tigers take risks they will not win. The present coaching team is far too conservative in this respect and I am afraid the only solution is replacement. It is not a matter of panicking, but acknowledging that an entirely different approach is needed.

- The question is not whether the Tigers are still in the game, but whether they can remain in the game.

Yes, but you've been consistently wrong on this question so far. They are still in it, even with all the problems they've been having, and in spite of all your predictions.

- However, the reality at the moment is that the coaching is obstructing the players.

But the example you gave indicates that Okada is the problem. Coaches don't make those decisions. So you appear to be advocating replacing everybody then, including the manager. It's a drastic step. How is that going to help morale within the organization? And the example you gave of Yan overcoming his balk problems indicates that the coaches are beginning to make headway. The O'Malley example (if the quote was directly from him) clearly indicates that he's gunning for a full time coaching job, wouldn't you think? He's never made any secret of his wish to manage the Tigers one day, so whether or not he did help Imaoka, he's going to claim credit anyway. (I'm not blaming him - I'd probably be doing the same thing if I were in his shoes.)

Besides, bunting a runner into scoring position is and always has been a valid option. Some managers do it more than others. The way they've been hitting, I rather think it's a good move - at least you eliminate the risk of a double play.

- Akahoshi is kept under quite tight control by the coaches as are all the players...

Akahoshi hasn't been fully fit for much of the season. Could this be a factor? Any other specific examples?

- Unless the Tigers take risks they will not win. The present coaching team is far too conservative in this respect and I am afraid the only solution is replacement.

Well, bunting a runner into scoring position isn't regarded as overly conservative in Japan. You're not confusing conservatism with prudence by any chance?

Look, I know what you're saying, and you are probably right in calling for a change in management. But that's for next season. You simply don't replace the entire coaching staff in the middle of the season unless you're desperate. The Tigers are (as of today) one game off the pace for a playoff spot. Reenacting the Night of the Long Knives may well be the kind of risk taking you'd like to engage in, but it's hardly prudent for a team in Hanshin's position.

Well, it is premature to say that I have been wrong on this question. The Tigers are still in it, as you put it, because of other teams' problems, not because of their own efforts. Personally I do not believe that they are in it at all because they are not in control of their destiny. I mentioned that there is shi no rodo [Road of Death] still to come, and looking at their present away record, this is not a period to look forward to with confidence.

O'Malley has been offered a coaching job twice but has turned it down both times (Okada offered him the position after Hoshino retired and recently again early this year). It may be that he wants to be manager, but his public position is that he only wishes to be Tigers North American scout.

The bunting though is a serious problem - if you can't do it properly, don't do it. There have even been examples of bunting into a double play. This is a coaching problem not a management problem, though Okada could give more direction here. I also have difficulty with the notion that you should not change the management mid-season. Why on earth not? If you aim for the club to do its best then you make the changes as soon as you can. Waiting for the end of the year is not good management. If pitchers are not doing well they are sent down to ni-gun. Why is management exempt?

- The Tigers are still in it, as you put it, because of other teams' problems, not because of their own efforts.

Yes, yes, yes! Exactly! That's why I said they'd still be competitive - for that very reason. You kept telling us how all the other teams were mediocre. Well, their mediocrity has shown up in inter-league play, and that's why the Tigers are still keeping pace. I said the Tigers would still be in it by the end of inter-league play, and you keep saying, no, no, they've got no chance, they're going down, there's no way they're going to last. Well they have lasted, and so your prediction of a quick demise hasn't proven to be correct. Don't worry, you might be right one day, but so far, no.

- It may be that he wants to be manager...

That's always been common knowledge down my way. But then, many people have strong ideas of what's wrong with the Tigers and how they'd shake things up if they were manager.

- I also have difficulty with the notion that you should not change the management mid-season. Why on earth not?

Morale for one. Especially when you're still in the race (see above). It's always better to work with the guys you already know than change the team completely when you find yourself a difficult patch. I know, I know, the Christopher School of Sports Management may not teach that, but that's one of the differences we have I suppose.

Actually no, the Tigers are slipping back. Yokohama are now in a clear third and the Tigers, who were in a clear fourth, are now sharing the spot with the Carp. My impression is that you indicated that Tigers would actually be competing for second or third place. Trying to keep their heads above water would be more appropriate. I am afraid the trend is not on the up direction.

This is what you need to look at, not a snapshot. The nine game losing streak indicated that they would struggle this season, and so things have gone. My concern is where they are going to find the pitching to move back to a five or even six man rotation.

You mention morale without considering the effect on morale of keeping a failing manager on. This is even more sapping than sacking the manager and bringing a replacement in. With a replacement people see things are changing and this revitalizes them. With the same old faces they just see business as usual. It's not very motivating to leave a failing manager in place.

- Yokohama are now in a clear third and the Tigers, who were in a clear fourth, are now sharing the spot with the Carp.

Thought I'd revisit this thread after the dust from the inter-league play had settled. The Tigers have well and truly overtaken the Carp (as I said they would, and as you said they couldn't), and the Tigers have just swept Yokohama at home. So yes, while Yokohama are in clear third, perhaps it's their turn to go off the boil a bit.

- I am afraid the trend is not on the up direction. This is what you need to look at, not a snapshot.

But now it might be. It's amazing how you try and twist other people's positions. I have always said that you've got to look at the longer term - like the whole season. Beating Yokohama twice today and yesterday was a gutsy effort, and they've found a couple of good new pitchers, the oldies are starting to get their act together, and they haven't collapsed in a heap as you have been predicting from early May.

- With a replacement people see things are changing and this revitalizes them. With the same old faces they just see business as usual.

And maybe, just maybe, changing horses in midstream could be construed as panic and has the opposite effect. It's a risky strategy, and if it doesn't work, the recriminations are even worse. Especially when you do it so early in the season.

Anyway just wait and see what happens now - a few wins in a row always does wonders for morale.

I thought you had disappeared.

It's still too soon to talk about an upward trend. If they do well in their next few series and win them, then we can do so. However, "might be" is not exactly convincing. They need to do more to correct the deficiencies.

Fukuhara and Yan still under-perform, which only leaves two pitchers with any consistency. (By the way who is the second good new pitcher?) Imaoka and Sheets are still dead weight, and only Kanemoto and Lin are regularly scoring RBIs. There are too many gaps to take this one series as something significant.

I'll give you one thing though - the Carp are heading to their natural home, the bottom, so maybe the Tigers will not end up there.

- I thought you had disappeared.

Well I do have a life outside of this website, you know.

- It's still too soon to talk about an upward trend...

That's not my point. But in any case, it's also still too early to say that they're on the verge of collapse. Look, I've only ever tried to point out that it's a long season, and every season has ups and downs. You focus on the negative, I'm focusing on the positive.

I suspect you may be fighting the last war. This season is different to previous campaigns in that a team has to only finish third to make the playoffs. Now, while it's nice to be able to top the league, I think we can agree that that's not possible this year. OK, then the target becomes making the playoffs. And that's still achievable, in spite of the problems they've been having, in spite of all your negativity. They're still in the game. All the sweep of Yokohama indicates is that things can turn quickly. That's my point. It's not about upward or downward trends per se, but the fact that things turn very quickly in baseball.

I'm not saying the team will win this year. I'm saying they're not falling in a heap as quickly as you fear, and that they're still in with a chance.

Unfortunately, history is not on your side. Making the playoffs is indeed the only aim left for the Tigers, but there is ample statistical evidence that if they are in this position at this stage, then Tigers finish fourth to sixth. Thus making the playoffs is not a likely proposition.

The weekend was a good start but there needs to be considerably more done for your belief to come about. Nothing so far indicates that this is happening (and believe me I would like to be wrong here). I still cannot see where they will find a reliable five man pitching rotation. More people need to bat in runs on a regular basis. These are very serious problems which need to be overcome. There is no indication that this is happening.

One also has to consider that if they did make the playoffs whether it would be a good thing. Clearly changes are needed (and we differ on when), but making the playoffs may postpone if not abort them entirely. This would not be a good thing.

- ... there is ample statistical evidence that if they are in this position at this stage, then Tigers finish fourth to sixth. Thus making the playoffs is not a likely proposition.

Ah yes, but the beauty of sports is that previous stats don't always carry through to the next contest. Otherwise we'd be watching it all unfold on a computer screen rather than at the ballpark. But what an amazing statement - give up because the stats say so. How defeatist!

- I still cannot see where they will find a reliable five man pitching rotation. More people need to bat in runs on a regular basis.

They don't have to find a reliable five man rotation - they can limp through the season, make the playoffs, and then it's a different situation.

I agree with you on batting - but that's what they showed on the weekend. Let's see what happens, shall we? You've been consistently wrong about the Tigers falling in a heap so far. There's a good statistical chance that you'll be wrong again.

- One also has to consider that if they did make the playoffs whether it would be a good thing.

Huh? I won't even try to counter this. It surely must be a peculiarly British approach to sports. Beyond my comprehension I'm afraid.

I think you need to read a bit more carefully before twisting things. Nowhere do I suggest that the Tigers should give up. Rather that the historical record does not look encouraging. The amazing thing about the Tigers is that their stats pretty much do carry through to the next contest.

Furthermore they cannot limp through the season on two reliable pitchers. They need more pitching otherwise any improvement in batting goes to waste. You seem to somehow think that the Tigers are OK and that they will make the playoffs. But you still cannot give any indication of how this will happen or why we should accept this view. Tigers are in a mess at the moment and have, as you mentioned, fallen in a heap. Where are they going to find the starting pitchers? The two reliable pitchers they have cannot win all their games - even they must lose at times.

Okada likes a six pitcher rotation. If we consider this as being Shimoyanagi, Uezono, Fukuhara, Yan, Vogelsang, and possibly Andoh when he returns, only two could be considered reliable at the moment. Yan is far too erratic and still has baulk problems. Fukuhara is having one of his bad years, and Vogelsang makes too many pitches. Andoh we don't know about, but his injury was supposed to be fixed some time ago - this is not encouraging.

Apparently, there is a new rookie Wakatake who will be starting soon. Maybe he can do something or maybe he will go the way of Kojima (who incidentally I thought pitched well but didn't get any support from anyone). Everything reeks of desperation and a lack of any idea what to do to cure it. A complacent and reactive management style has blunted a fine side.

This unfortunately is the reality. We saw how good they could be in beating Yokohama on the weekend, but we cannot consider this more than a flash in the pan at the moment.

As for my final comment which you didn't understand, consider the idiom "papering over the cracks" [Google]. The meaning is clear.

- Nowhere do I suggest that the Tigers should give up.

Your whole tone is pessimistic. From early in the season you have expressed little confidence in the manager, the pitching staff, the pitching, the batting. Yet the team is still fighting, and in there with a chance. You've been belittling their chances since May. That sounds like giving up to me.

- The amazing thing about the Tigers is that their stats pretty much do carry through to the next contest.

Right, so how do you explain 2003? Or the other successes they've had over the past few years? How do you explain their sweep of Yokohama over the weekend?

- Furthermore they cannot limp through the season on two reliable pitchers.

Well I was responding to your comment that they need five reliable starters, so who's twisting things now? Teams battle through with a less than perfect pitching staff all the time. Utilize the quick hook at the first sign of trouble, lots of middle relief, good closers. Starters are just one part of the equation. Some imagination is needed (and I acknowledge that could be one of Okada's shortcomings as a manager), but so far the Tigers have remained in the hunt, even though you said they wouldn't. Why can't they continue like this? The key for me is actually batting, not pitching. They can survive on the pitching they've got if they could only wield the bat a little more effectively. They're getting on base - they've got to clean up better. IMHO.

- As for my final comment which you didn't understand, consider the idiom "papering over the cracks" [Google]. The meaning is clear.

Umm, my comment was irony, Christopher. More specifically, Socratic irony. Try this [Wikipedia] for a better understanding of what this is. The meaning is clear.

Certainly I am pessimistic, but this doesn't mean that I am suggesting the Tigers should give up. There is a severe logical gap in your reasoning. I think that they will finish B class despite all their efforts. Quite simply, since May they have been following a pattern which has up until now been fairly clear. You seem to be hoping against hope that they can change this, and to be honest I hope you are right. However, I am not about to let my hope overcome the actuality.

As for the successful years, at this stage they were in much higher positions. Looking at other years at this stage in the season, when they've been in this position they have finished fourth to sixth. And they have followed that pattern consistently.

Now the Tigers need more reliable pitchers, that much is obvious. Pitchers are the ones who keep the runs down, not batters. They need to win one- or two-run games, and for that reliable pitchers are essential. I still maintain you need to read things more carefully - my point has always been that two reliable pitchers are not enough. No twisting, just a clear point. If you can show that there are more than two who can be relied on I would be interested to hear.

You mentioned that they had found two new pitchers, but never named the second one. Who was this? It is always very nice to debate with you, but it might help to have a bit more flesh on your arguments. I don't dispute that the batting has been miserable, and this is why I am saying the problem lies with the coaches and management as much as with the players.

And, no, your comment wasn't irony despite what you might think.

- I think that they will finish B class despite all their efforts.

And that appears to be giving up in my book. At the very least it's an extremely pessimistic view.

- Quite simply, since May they have been following a pattern which has up until now been fairly clear.

Well what about the current pattern? The Tigers have won three of their last four series, with all three victories occurring against the three teams above them in the standings. On a downward slope are they? I think not.

- Now the Tigers need more reliable pitchers, that much is obvious. Pitchers are the ones who keep the runs down, not batters. They need to win one- or two-run games, and for that reliable pitchers are essential.

No, that's simply not true. Look at tonight's game for instance. They used five pitchers, gave up 11 hits and 4 runs, but still beat the Giants by 9-4. This game was decided by batting, not pitching. There have been many games this season in which a well placed hit or home run would have changed the result. The Tigers have a decent ERA relative to the other teams (3.71), which was the third best in the league. But they have the worst batting average (.251) and one home run off the bottom of the league in that category as well. There's no doubt about it: hitting (and perhaps defense and base running) is where they're failing.

As I said, you're still thinking of previous seasons, in which the team had to finish first. So your comprehensive historical analysis is not worth the vast amount of time you obviously spent on it, sorry to say.

The realistic target is third place, and after tonight's game, they're three games behind that target. How can you seriously say they have no chance of making that up? Especially as they've just beaten the three teams ahead of them.

- You mentioned that they had found two new pitchers, but never named the second one. Who was this?

My apologies. The two pitchers are Uezono and Wakatake. I assumed you would have known that.

- It is always very nice to debate with you, but it might help to have a bit more flesh on your arguments.

Well I'm doing the best I can. I'm afraid my life isn't revolving around the Tigers at the moment - I have a couple of other things on my plate. I'm trying to explain my logic as best I can. But I fear your logic is the problem, to be frank. Your position boils down to:

1. Pessimism - which is more emotion than logic
2. Historical analysis - which doesn't apply this year due to the introduction of playoffs; and
3. The need for better pitchers - which is not true based on the stats, but even if it were, the playoff system changes the equation, because all they have to do is make third place.

Then, with the rest time and the schedule of short playoff series, they don't need a full rotation. It's rather a simple concept. I'm sorry if I'm not explaining it clearly enough for you to understand.

And if I can just clarify my most recent comments: of course the Tigers could be doing better; of course they have been playing poorly; I would welcome better pitching. BUT one should not panic, for example by firing the entire coaching staff, as you've suggested. They've been toiling away, tweaking here and there, introducing new pitchers, getting better performances out of the oldsters. And it could be that all this work is starting to pay off, if you consider their performances since inter-league. My reasoning is based on more than hope. I've seen this sort of thing happen before with ball clubs. A long season gives you enough time to work things out. They may not win, but they certainly haven't lost yet by a long shot.

Welcome back. I thought you would respond after last night. Before getting onto the philosophical issues, let's look at the last series. The Tuesday victory has a huge slice of luck in it, but was also due to excellent pitching - just what I have been talking about. Winning the one or two run games. Whether Fukuhara will continue in this vein is still open to question, and Okada almost blew the victory (though his strategy has worked before, it almost didn't this time - see below about rigidity), but good pitching was the key.

Yesterday was about bad pitching by both sides. If Kisanuki hadn't been so bad the Tigers may not have done as well. You neglect to mention the role errors played in the second inning's scoring (but it's nice to have luck go your way for a change - in both games). Wakatake and Darwin were dismal but were canceled out by the Giants' failures.

As for the other questions - the playoffs have not changed the situation as much as you think. It is still about finishing A or B class. If you finish A class you get into the playoffs, if you finish B class you don't. Thus any analysis is still valid. Furthermore, you have to look at the Tigers' performance in these short series competitions. Admittedly a small sample, but very clearly indicating that they do not do well.

Your argument also fails to take account of the fact that the third place team has never won the playoffs and made it to the Japan Series. It might be possible for this to happen, but history and evidence is not on the Tigers' side.

If we look at the coaching situation we find a rigid and inflexible approach which is causing serious problems for the team. The coaching staff needs to be revamped and certain oldsters need to be dropped. Then perhaps we can look forward to making the playoffs.

You mustn't confuse realism with negativity or be optimistic no matter what. What we have seen in these series gives grounds for hope but that is all. There is still shi no rodo to contemplate, and as we know, history has a huge impact.

- I thought you would respond after last night.

Yes, I couldn't resist cheering you up.

- The Tuesday victory has a huge slice of luck in it, but was also due to excellent pitching - just what I have been talking about. Winning the one or two run games.

You're joking aren't you? All season you've been doubting the team's ability to produce good pitching. Now they do something, and you now express doubt they can keep it up. And you say you're not pessimistic. And actually I think it rather supports my view that things were bound to turn around sooner or later.

- Yesterday was about bad pitching by both sides.

Well yes, and no. The difference was the Tigers' ability to take advantage of the other side's bad pitching. Earlier in the season they weren't hitting them out of the park. Last night they did. The key was better hitting, my friend.

Errors? Sure - but that's part of the game. If you can't take advantage and score off of those errors, then you don't win. Simple.

Luck? Yep, they got some last night. Also part of the game. And in the course of a season this tends to even out. I'll take the win any way it comes.

And this is their third series win out of the last four. BayStars, Dragons, and now Giants. Let's see if it continues, shall we?

- If you finish A class you get into the playoffs, if you finish B class you don't.

Yeees, I can't fault that statement, but what exactly are you saying? Surely the requirement to finish third is less onerous than having to finish first. The math is simple. In past years they would have been in trouble, and that's what you're basing your argument on. But this year it's totally different. And I mean totally. The bar is so low it's definitely possible to do it.

- Your argument also fails to take account of the fact that the third place team has never won the playoffs and made it to the Japan Series.

Ah yes, but it does. In previous years there have been real advantages for teams finishing higher in the standings, like a one-game start. This year it's only home ground advantage. Besides the system has been in the Pa-League for only three seasons! Talk about a uselessly small sample!

- It might be possible for this to happen, but history and evidence is not on the Tigers' side.

You're talking about two failed Nippon Series campaigns. That's an even smaller sample! Gee whiz, I hope you're better at business analysis than you are at interpreting sports stats.

- If we look at the coaching situation we find a rigid and inflexible approach which is causing serious problems for the team. The coaching staff needs to be revamped and certain oldsters need to be dropped.

Maybe, but not in the middle of a season when they still have a fighting chance. Do this after the season if you really want to, but firing everybody (halfway through the season) is a high risk strategy, which could have serious ramifications for morale if it doesn't pay off. Fire everybody again? And again? How could a coach work under those conditions? Don't always be so trigger happy. Obviously you've never been a coach. Or possibly a player.

- You mustn't confuse realism with negativity or be optimistic no matter what.

I'm not. I'm the realistic one - I'm basing my optimism on stats, simple math, baseball knowledge - and history. The Tigers are only a couple of games back. They have a fighting chance. They even appear to working out some of the problems, even though you said it couldn't be done. Teams have gone on to win pennants from worse positions. It can be done. Realistically. Let's just see, shall we?

Oh yes, and before I forget, care to comment on my point about ERA versus batting average? Or is this something you can't refute?

And you didn't expect I'd be able to come up with two new pitchers, did you? Did you? I can even name another one if you really want me to. I'm not a total idiot, you know.

Well given that Fukuhara has only produced the one game and many more stinkers doubts are justified. As for the stats you have to go with what you have got, if you bothered to read my post fully you would note I mentioned it was a small sample. Still sometimes you have to try and work with those because those are all they've got.

The Tigers are actually three games back (not two as you say) as the BayStars won.

As for the pitchers, when you first made the statement only Uezono was in the picture - Wakatake came later, but I didn't want to embarrass you with this. I am encouraged by the improvement, but am waiting to see the results of the next two series before I change my views. History does not support your views, but then we could be due for a change in history.

- As for the stats you have to go with what you have got, if you bothered to read my post fully you would note I mentioned it was a small sample. Still sometimes you have to try and work with those because those are all they've got.

Well no, not really. Samples as small as these are next to useless, so this doesn't strengthen your case - in fact it weakens it, because you don't appear to have much else to rely on. BTW, I did read your entire post. Just because you acknowledge that your evidence is inadequate doesn't mean I shouldn't highlight it independently.

- The Tigers are actually three games back (not two as you say)

I didn't say that. I said they were a couple of games back. I'm using the broader definition, that is, a few. English is your native language I assume.

- Wakatake came later...

Ah yes, maybe for those who are aware of developments only after the fact.

- I am encouraged by the improvement, but am waiting to see the results of the next two series before I change my views.

Well, we'll just have to see, won't we? I'm looking forward to seeing you change your mind. That'll be something for the record books.

(I'm still waiting to see whether you can refute my ERA vs. average argument. Go on, try to embarrass me. I can take it.)

Here you are wrong - the samples are useful because they show a situation that can be repeated. Now if you look at the Okada Tigers you find a team which didn't do well in the only short series they played in but in such a way that it was obvious that his approach was clueless. Couple that with the evidence over the series of a reactive and rigid management style and then you can begin to make projections. Never assume that the samples are the only things that are relied on.

Of course I am aware that a couple can be used in a broad sense, but that is only when you have a vague indication. When (like this situation) you have a precise figure to work with it means two. It is no use being imprecise when precision is called for as it also calls into question your other arguments.

As for Wakatake - I am not convinced by your claims of awareness. However, we would have to revise our definition of good after his performance in game 2 of the series - he was awful.

If we look at the current starting pitchers we have, Shimoyanagi - good, Fukuhara - poor, Uezono - OK, Iwata - poor, Wakatake - poor, Yan - poor. We need more OK pitchers to be assured of success. It is also instructive to look at how many starters have actually been used and how many have failed. This has been far too many.

I'm enjoying this - seeing Mijow and Christopher going at it hammer and tongs. Although it appears that Christopher is slowly losing ground. The fact that he is considering changing his views means he accepts that there is at least a chance that the Tigers will recover - which I think is what Mijow has been saying all along.

I'm just glad to see the Tigers winning. That home run by Sakurai last night really made the difference.

True - I am reconsidering my views. However, Wakatake has now made the progression to ni-gun.

Tigers' pitching problems continue - since my last post Uezono has been sent down to ni-gun and Hashimoto has picked up an injury. Williams is also out of action. The list of pitchers who can be used grows smaller and smaller.

The gap between Tigers and BayStars is now four games and looks set to stay between three and six games. I cannot see how the Tigers' pitching can rescue them. The only hope that they have of making third place is if Giants continue to implode (which is possible).

Pitching is misused to an alarming degree, and too much reliance is placed on JFK. Kubota is not happy about his treatment by Okada, and I suspect (just my impression) that other pitchers feel the same way. No faith is shown in anyone, and the sooner the coaches are changed the better (sorry Mijow - I would have liked to agree with you, but I can't).

- Tigers' pitching problems continue - since my last post Uezono has been sent down to ni-gun and Hashimoto has picked up an injury. Williams is also out of action. The list of pitchers who can be used grows smaller and smaller.

Chotto matte call!

Looking at Uezono's player page, he, like many starters over the past week, was "dropped for lack of opportunity." This is completely unrelated to his performance. Teams were stocking up on batters and dropping starting pitchers as the All-Star break approached, since they didn't need a full starting rotation going into the break. I look at this as giving a number of pitchers a few extra days of rest, beyond the five day vacation (except for those participating in the All-Star series).

I don't expect lineups to be back to normal until a week after the All-Star series, as teams will add starting pitchers back to their lineups one or two at a time, not all at once.

Granted, Uezono's last two starts weren't quality starts (4 and 3 innings respectively, both getting tagged with the loss). But I don't think that he's been given up on quite yet. The drop to ni-gun does not mean what you're inferring.

Who you should be worried about is Williams, who's currently having rotator cuff problems. But let's start a new thread to talk about Hanshin's relief corp.

Granted, I may be attributing Uezono's move to poor performance mistakenly, but Okada's record in this respect is not good. My point is that the lack of reliable starting pitchers will count against Tigers. Could your BayStars lend us a couple?

Would the cricket approach (i.e., relatively quick replacement) work? If the Tigers' starters are not able to last for six, seven, and eight innings, would it help to just have them pitch for two or three?

Looking at some recent games, Sugiyama gave up 0 in innings 1 and 2, got hit for 3 in the third (June 2); Darwin Cubillan gave up 0 up to the third, got hit for 2 in the fourth (June 3); Shimoyanagi gave up 1 up to the third, got hit for 2 and 1 in the fourth and fifth (June 5). There have been exceptions, of course (notably Yan), but if the starters can shut the opposition down for a couple of innings, and if middle relievers like Hashimoto, Sajikihara, and Taiyo can do the same (like they did variously on June 2, 3, 5 and 6), why not use a two-, three- or four-man relay to build the game into a situation where we can bring on JFK?

For example, if Akahoshi (or whoever is leadoff) gets on base Sekimoto bunts. This automatically generates at least one out without necessarily leading to a score. Sekimoto can actually hit quite well, but without him trying, one ends up with one out.

The bunting has been driving me crazy. It's expected in Japanese baseball, but I went to Koshien on Friday and I think the Tigers missed three chances even to get the bunt down, one time hitting into a double play and the other time Toritani getting called for interference. So, they need to work on fundamentals and take more risks. If they can do things right and score more, it takes pressure off the pitchers, knowing that a quality start gives them a great chance to win.

Okada-san inherited Hoshino's team. The team today is Okada-san's and it's not a pretty picture at all.

Unless things reverse themselves dramatically, it can happen like last year, Okada-san is out at the end of this season. He is not a horrible manager, nor is he a great one, that is the best I can say.

Amazing that when we do get solid pitching our hitters do nothing. Granted, the Hawks have stellar pitching, but tonight was another disgraceful display of baseball fundamentals. Late in the game, when trying to take the lead and then tie, we once again twice failed to get a simple sacrifice bunt down. A shame that Shimo's best outing of the season went to waste.

By the way, anyone have any idea what Akahoshi was swinging at in the final at-bat?

Akahoshi has been having an ineffective season, so anything could be possible. He isn't stealing like he used to, so one must question why he is included in the side. Certainly not for his hitting.

Does this situation take anyone else back to the good bad old days when you could sit just about anywhere you wanted at Koshien (with the exception of games vs. the Giants), the Tigers could be relied upon to lose, there were more fans of the Tigers and less people who wanted to be a Tigers' Fan™, and the phrase "So, how 'bout them Tigers?" was not so much a conversation starter as an ironic parody of bygone times when it was a conversation staple?