2005 Central League Predictions

I think it will play out like this.

Yomiuri (uggh) will beat out Yakult for the pennant. My Chunichi Dragons will beat out the Tigers for third, and Yokohama will edge the Carp for the rear.

I'm not happy about the Dragons' spring so far. I think they will start weak and finish strong, but Yomiuri looks really tough.

I predict a Tigers/Giants race if Okada can avoid messing things up. Tigers have a potentially very good pitching line up and a strong batting team. Giants additions and subtractions have only improved the side, but they are still showing significant weaknesses at relief and closing stages. The Dragons will probably not win it this year.

Wow, my predictions are the same as Shukan's. I think Chunichi only improved by adding Woods, but can Kawakami and Yamamoto put up the same performances they had last year? The Giants improved, but I don't think they have what it takes to beat the Dragons. Yakult is going downhill, and injuries will plague the pitching again this year. I don't think the Tigers will ever reach the championship level with Mr. Okada as their manager, Mr. Hoshino was just respected more, and more of a presence in the dugout. Yokohama will certainly be hurting without Woods, and Hiroshima is in a rebuilding phase, drafting only pitchers last year.

1. Tigers
2. Giants
3. Dragons
4. Swallows
5. BayStars
Carp

The Tigers will return to their form of 2003 and win the Central League with a very balanced team. The Giants have good offense but once again lack depth in their pitching. The Dragons will have a hangover after last year, and then the bottom three teams are a big dropoff from the top three. The Swallows, BayStars, and Carp are basically not very good teams. It will be long seasons for those three teams.

I know that this topic is totally based on opinion. But I HAVE to get defensive when somebody calls the Swallows a "not very good team." I admit, they haven't been doing great this pre-season, but they haven't lost anybody from last year. They're the same team that came in second last year. Yes, Furuta is older. But the younger players such as Iwamura, Igarashi, Ishii, etc. will only get better.

By the way, the Giants and Swallows are the only teams that have ended in "A" class the last 4 years.

As to my predictions, I think that the Dragons' pitching probably won't be able improve on last year. And the Giants' pitchers can only improve on last year's pitching. Thus, my predictions:

1. Giants
2. Dragons
3. Swallows
4. Tigers
5. BayStars
6. Carp

The Tigers aren't getting any better. As good as 2003 was, it was a year in which everything "clicked" for the Tigers, sort of like the 2001 season that the Seattle Mariners had. The Swallows can only contend for the pennant if Riggs can perform well. Every year that the Swallows have won, the Swallows usually have had two gaikokujin who take care of most of the offense. Getting "lucky" with their gaijin is usually the key to the Swallows' success, and they do seem to be one of the better talent evaluators when it comes to signing gaijin.

The Giants, by the way, last won the pennant in 2002. They haven't won the pennant for TWO years. I can't verify this year but in the last 15 years, I don't think the Giants have gone 3 years without winning the pennant.

Who cares about a class? It is all about winning the division. A class? Big deal. So you finish 3rd out of 6. who remembers that? They only remember the champions.

- The Giants, by the way, last won the pennant in 2002. They haven't won the pennant for TWO years. I can't verify this year but in the last 15 years, I don't think the Giants have gone 3 years without winning the pennant.

Actually, three years looks like their longest drought. Have a look at the Central League Pennants Pro Yakyu Wiki (Beta) page that Eng-san has put together. These are the years the Giants did not win the CL Pennant since 1950:

1950
1954
1960
1962
1964
1974 - 1975 (2 years)
1978 - 1980 (3 years)
1982
1984 - 1986 (3 years)
1988
1991 - 1993 (3 years)
1995
1997 - 1999 (3 years)
2001
2003 - 2004 (2 years so far)

So, it looks like they alternate between losing three years, win, lose one year, win, three years, win, etc. This is a rather interesting pattern.

As a Carp fan, I think it is good that nobody believes in them, 'cause then they can't really disappoint anybody. But I think, or rather hope, that they will do it better this year. We will also have the inter-league games this year, and that may do something tricky with the final standings. But in the end, Chunuchi has the best team, so my suggestion is this:

1. Chunichi
2. Yomiuri
3. Hiroshima
4. Hanshin
5. Yakult
6. Yokohama

Let me be the typical Japanese fan here.

1st Hanshin Tigers
2-5th Who cares?
6th Giants

- Let me be the typical Japanese fan here.

1st Hanshin Tigers
2-5th Who cares?
6th Giants

Wow, you really think the Giants will be 6th in the Central League? Interesting.

I don't keep very current on the Giants. What would make you put them so far down on the list? Did they lose some good players or something? Sorry, I tend to pay more attention to the Pacific League.

Watching Tigers vs. Dragons now, and I have to say both teams look like they are warming-up, which to be fair they are.

So predictions. Obviously 1-8 Giants are very strong and I think the Dragons are up with them. Tigers look decent but not as strong as the other two. I did like the Carp's lineup last year, haven't seen it this year but they could develop into a challenging team, probably not this year though.

Pitching, there are clearly questionmarks with the Dragons (my team), who I think could be one starter short. Their relief is strong, but strong enough? To win the Central League I think yes, because there are a lot more questionmarks with the Giants' pitchers, and I don't think the Tigers are stronger than the Dragons. The Swallows probably are up there with their pitching too.

What worries me is that the pitching in the Pacific League is probably stronger.

However, it should be a good season, and I have a small inkling that there is a lot going for Nagoya this year, and they could surprise people by doing it again, and maybe going all the way this time.

CL 1-CD 2-YG 3-YS 4-HT 5-HC 6-YBS
PL 1-HNHF 2-SL 3-FSH 4-TRGE 5-CLM 6-OB

The problem with the Tigers has been about the manager, Okada-kantoku in 2004. He has been using his pitching staff very traditionally. For example, future Major League Prospect Kei Igawa has thrown over 120 pitches (sometimes over 140) last year again and again. And at the very next outing from over 120 pitches, Igawa could not perform very well, especially vs. the Dragons. Yeah, only 120 pitches. Nolan Ryan or Luis Tiant could laugh about these numbers the same as they can do to Pedro Martinez's 100 pitch or not performance. But fact is facts. It happened at least two times in 2004 and Okada-san seemed to never learn the lesson from that.

So wait and see how he uses his pitching staff this year. If he can not do very well, the Tigers will fall to the bottom of Central League and we will say sayonara to Okada-kantoku.

I don't know why everyone is on the Dragons' bandwagon. Just because Woods is now a Dragon doesn't mean that they will repeat. I am an anti-Gaints fan, but with the addition of Kapler makes them 75% better than last year. The Giants have 7 of their 9 starters that can go yard at any time. What other teams can do that?

In closing, I have to let everyone know that I am a BayStars fan and I think that they will end the season in 4th. The Swallows will fall further in the ranks this year without Inaba.

I am also an anti-Giants fan (see above), and have to admit I probably know less about Gabe Kapler than most people on this page (but more than most of the world). But how exactly is Kapler going to be 175% the player Shimizu is? And even if he achieves this, how will this address the major problems the Kyojin had last season?

The Giants have no starting pitching depth and their bullpen is lacking. Kapler is a downgrade from Petagine. They need to bench Kiyohara and fire their manager. Why don't they spend money on a foreign starting pitcher?

Starting off 0 and 4. Keep it up Giants. I do think they will finish in 2nd or 3rd because the bottom three teams are not very good. Tigers will win it all this year. Dragons and Giants will battle for 2nd.

It was interesting to read over our predictions again now that everything is settled. We all (including me) over-rated the Giants something terribly. Also I would not have predicted Yokohama fighting for third place.