Merging with US Major Leagues

The question is, what is the Major League Agreement, and what does it entail?

It and "The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book" are loose-leaf binders not for the public. They are about the business rules for the game. They don't have any secrects but Bud Selig and his friends simply think we're too dumb to care.

Does NPB count as two leagues or one (Central and Pacific)? Likewise, does MLB count as two leagues or one (AL and NL)?

> Does NPB count as two leagues or one (Central and
> Pacific)? Likewise, does MLB count as two leagues or
> one (AL and NL)?

I think that, were NPB to join with MLB as per these rules, NPB as a whole would be considered one league, and the CL and PL would become the Central and Pacific Divisions.

But do the Majors count as one or two leagues, which has a relationship with the way the chamionship would be played out?

Um, the Majors are two leagues: the National League and the American League. Together they make up the Major Leagues.

The only reason I suggested that the PL and CL would become divisions is because at the moment neither have eight teams. If both leagues added two teams, then one or both could join the Major Leagues as leagues, rather than divisions...

I've already gone on record on this site as one who would like to see merger, so please understand what I have to say in that context. One thing no one has touched on is the 154 game requirement, which Japan has not yet met. Obviously they could -- but is one year of that enough, or is it also a multiyear requirement? I would take it from the post and the article that one year is sufficient.

The other thing I'd see is that since the majors are currently 30 teams, the most sensible merger would be to make the majors six divisions of 5 teams each along with two Japanese divisions of 5 teams each. Of course, this would require 2 NPB teams to disappear. However, the talent from the two disbanded teams could be distributed among the remaining NPB teams to strengthen them. Further, I suspect it would make the most sense to group 2 divisions into a "league," and have some degree of interleague play.

Another issue which would have to be addressed is what happens with Japanese players? Are they somehow to be reserved for the former NPB teams (unlikely), some preference given to Japanese teams (say one pick a year each -- more likely), or just make them a part of the major league pool? Possibly a phased in approach among these choices would be best (reserved for 3 years, then 2 picks a year for another 2 years, one pick a year thereafter for at least a few more years). It would be tough to balance the existing teams' desire for major league talent with the Japanese preference for remaining Japanese. In fact, I think this would be the thorniest issue of all.

Just my 2 pennies worth.

Jim Albright

I would love to see this but doubt American Baseball purists would ever allow this. Has there been more written on this subject, I would love to hear more ideas. I've heard of possible NBA teams in Mexico and even Europe. How long does it take the Concord to get to Tokyo from LA?

This is all in the realm of fantasy, surely? Jet lag aside, can you seriously believe that the Japanese baseball establishment would ever agree to what would be seen as a takeover by MLB? And the fans? I mean, they're all very proud of the traditions of yakyu, which would be lost in the event of a merger.

Interesting intellectual exercise, but it's never going to happen.

- This is all in the realm of fantasy, surely? Jet lag aside, can you seriously believe that the Japanese baseball establishment would ever agree to what would be seen as a takeover by MLB? And the fans? I mean, they're all very proud of the traditions of yakyu, which would be lost in the event of a merger.

Interesting intellectual exercise, but it's never going to happen.

At present, I agree. However, "never" is a very long time, and circumstances which do not exist now could easily change the feelings of the Japanese owners and fans. It may happen within a decade or two.

Here's one scenario: NPB is losing talent to the majors at an alarming rate, and is losing fan support as a result. The situation is such that the options are:

1. continue the fight in a losing battle, with financial ruin,
2. become a feeder to the major leagues, or
3. explore merger.

Your ace in the hole in exploring merger is the fan base you bring to the table. You'll have to pay more in salary, and probably have to go after free agents heavily for a while to compete effectively with the existing teams, but team ownership sees an asset which was depreciating suddenly appreciate significantly in value. The fans will get higher quality baseball again. You may even be able to drive a bargain which lets you keep some of your top talent in Japan. Yes, the owners will become less influential by going into the majors, but they reasonably could believe the benefits of such an arrangement outweigh its drawbacks.

This scenario is not presently operable, nor is any other which could lead to a merger. However, the point is that circumstances can arise which would make merger an attractive option for all parties concerned. If such a set of circumstances arises, merger will go from pipe dream to reality very quickly.

How likely are such a set of circumstances to come together? In the short term (say five years or less), quite unlikely. In the next decade to 25 years, no one knows precisely how likely merger will be. I maintain in that time frame it certainly could happen. And if we consider the time frame of forever, if baseball survives, I am convinced that it is quite likely that professional baseball will be played in a league covering some of Asia and all of North America, if not other continents as well. Whether that comes by merger or some other means, such as expansion after a failure of the NPB, I believe it will happen some day.

Jim Albright

- Here's one scenario: NPB is losing talent to the majors at an alarming rate, and is losing fan support as a result.

Well, that's the scenario I don't think will ever happen, simply because the NPB will never allow things to get so bad that the only way out is a merger.

Some talent will be lost, but there'll be enough to go around, and there will always be players ready to fill the shoes of those who decide to leave. There won't be a mass exodus of young talent anyway - Japanese kids will want to prove themselves at home first.

Your scenario assumes that the fans will leave the sport - but go where? Soccer? Rugby? Curling? Unlikely. MLB? Also unlikely. I mean, look at what happens when a Japanese star goes over to the MLB now - everybody marvels at how well the guy is doing overseas, they watch the highlights of his at-bats on TV, but they don't watch the rest of the game. In short, they haven't become MLB fans, they remain fans of yakyu. Their loyalty remains with Yomiuri/Hanshin/whatever - or more correctly, to the individual star. And in a way, it actually increases the prestige of yakyu. And the fans aren't leaving pro yakyu now anyway, despite the departure of Ichiro.

And Matsui? Well, the Giants will continue to draw sell-out crowds night after night.

You see, I think you're underestimating how deep the yakyu traditions run in Japanese society. From the Koshien tournaments and the high school baseball structure to the rabid fan base, at least where I am in Kansai - they will continue to exist, and I can't see the nationalistic Japanese moving over to what is seen as a foreign league.

Because really, any merger of MLB and NPB will be seen in Japan as a takeover by the Americans. Trust me, the average fan would not stand for it.

NPB will remain the main game in town. Changes may have to be made, including a rethink of the two-league structure, the draft, the dominance of the Giants, etc., but I'm pretty sure it will adapt, and survive, if not thrive.

CFiJ and I had much of this discussion in another thread, and I don't care to repeat it. One thing you are assuming is that the current conditions (which I already agreed are not favorable for merger) will continue indefinitely. They may, but that is even more unlikely than the scenario I gave. Change is a constant, even in societies which are very grounded in tradition, like Japan. This is especially true when they, like Japan, wish also to be a part of our ever-changing modern world. I do not know precisely how the future will turn out, and no one else does, either.

As for the idea that a merger would be seen as a takeover, if the Giants were to decide along with a few other teams that greater riches lay in a merger with the majors, don't you think the Yomiuri press outlets would put a different, more positive spin than "takeover" on the idea? Don't you think they might be able to sell the idea of we're as good as anybody else, and we're out to prove it? That message was well received in a vastly different context in the 1930's and early 40's in Japan, and I think it could work in a baseball context in the near future as well.

Of course, the Giants don't seem anywhere near that point now, but who knows how things will look 10 or 15 or more years down the road?

Jim Albright

- Change is a constant, even in societies which are very grounded in tradition, like Japan.

Well that's exactly what I'm arguing - that a merger will not be necessary because NPB will change and adapt to changing circumstances. You're assuming that NPB won't be able to change - I say they will.

- [...] if the Giants were to decide along with a few other teams that greater riches lay in a merger with the majors, don't you think the Yomiuri press outlets would put a different, more positive spin than "takeover" on the idea?

It would be a tough sell, especially down here in Kansai. I think if the Yomiuri press wanted it, then you'd see a backlash from the Hanshin fans. They'd probably smell a rat .

No, with all due respect, Jim, I still maintain that it's never going to happen. You say that it's impossible to see into the future. Sure, I accept that, but I'd say my scenario (of gradual change within the NPB structure) is much, much more likely than the radical upheaval you appear to be championing.

And that's apart from the practical jet lag/travel time problems, which you haven't really addressed. Those will be the real killer.

To be fair, Jim isn't championing merger, he's just indicating what he thinks is a plausible scenario. I agree with you, mijow, that Jim's scenario is dependent on NPB losing fan support, which I don't see happening. However, I do believe that a merger of sorts will happen; in fact, I take it to be an inevitability. The difference between what I imagine and what Jim is imagining is that I think it will be a partnership, like FIFA. I don't believe NPB will "fail" any more than I believe that MLB will "fail." But, in the future, as more and more baseball owners, American and Japanese, see the money to be made in world competition, I think a world governing body, to which MLB and NPB will both belong, that will organize international tournaments, is much more likely to be formed.

NPB and MLB can merge without NPB losing it's identity and tradition. After all, when Nintendo bought the Mariners, Yamauchi didn't move them to the Central League, or flood the minors and its major league team with Japanese players.

Actually, I'd like to see merger, but I don't expect it in the near future. However, there are many scenarios under which the Japanese and the majors may see merger as mutually beneficial. The majors would certainly like free access to Japanese talent and the baseball market there. The Japanese are currently less interested, but they'd only have to conclude that their teams would be more, not less, valuable as part of the majors rather than independent to make merger a virtual certainty. It is easiest to see that happening if the NPB loses ground, which is why I proposed that scenario. Remember that the Japanese teams are run by corporations, which by their very nature are quite aware of the bottom line.

Jim Albright

If the world of Japanese baseball and the world of American baseball would come together and form some sort of agreement to play as one league it would be great for baseball. The MLB shouldn't take control of Japanese baseball, they should work together in organizing international baseball during the season. Imagine the World Series champion playing the japanese champion for a true World Series, it would be great and would draw amazing ratings. Also imagine the winner of the all-star games playing each other a few days later, again it would draw great intrest from around the world. A Japanese baseball and American baseball connection would bring a new twist into baseball and would revive baseball and create some overseas rivals.