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What are the chances?

Discussion in the Nichi-Bei forum
What are the chances?
Clearly Nomo, Ichiro, Oka et al have started a trend: no doubt we'll see quite a few Japanese players head to MLB from now on.

But what are the chances that these players will return to Japan in the last seasons of their careers and share their skills in Japan?

Naturally these guys have a lot they could teach Japanese players, but will they consider it worth their while?

Will it be considered a loss of prestige to come back here to play? Will the financial rewards keep them in the MLB to the very end?

It was reported in the Daily Yomiuri the other day that Komiyama said he'd retire before coming back to Japan. Isolated case or representative of a trend?
Comments
Re: What are the chances?
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Nov 7, 2002 1:18 PM | YBS Fan ]

The chances aren't really that slim. I doubt that Nomo will return, but that's a "pride" thing and has nothing to do with money or being blackballed.

I don't really know why Komi-chan doesn't want to return. He would most certainly be welcomed back.

Interestingly, I recently read that a Japanese team was thinking about picking up Irabu. Now, Irabu left with a lot of trouble in his wake. He's the cause of the posting system. If any player were to be blackballed, Irabu would be him. Yet...

I think that many of the teams are interested in bringing some of their players back for the very reason you suggest, to teach Major League training techniques on a peer level with the other players.

The major draw backs for players returning is the system. After tasting the freedom and respect that players get in the Majors from their coaching staffs, will a player want to return to where they are under constant supervision here? Will management take suggestions from such players, even if they will help the team to be stronger?

It's going to take a lot of changes in attitude at many levels of NPB to look appealing to returning players who will most likely experience reverse culture shock. Once you learn that there's another way of doing things, if you really like that way, it's hard to go back. (Which is why I can't bring myself to return to the U.S.)

To answer the questions, though, as someone pointed out that I have a tendency to mumble about related issues while avoiding the questions at hand:

- But what are the chances that these players will return to Japan in the last seasons of their careers and share their skills in Japan?

I think the chances are pretty good for many players. Kida and Kashiwada both returned. Why not anyone else?

- Naturally these guys have a lot they could teach Japanese players, but will they consider it worth their while?

Even if they don't return as players, there's still the option to return and teach the skills they'd learned as coaches. I think that this will be where most end up.

- Will it be considered a loss of prestige to come back here to play?

I think it will be considered a loss of prestige by some, and may be a big factor in retiring rather than continue. But those that consider that they could once again be a star rather than just one of nine men on the field (or twenty-something on the bench) may actually experience a rise in prestige. It all depends on the point of view.

- Will the financial rewards keep them in the MLB to the very end?

I don't understand this question. Taguchi could have been making a great deal more in Japan than in MLB last season. The Japanese teams this off season are starting to raise the stakes in an attempt to keep their stars. Except for the absolute top players, Japan will be more "financially rewarding."

Furthermore, if a player is at his end in the Majors, Japan will most likely offer more than a AA contract financially.

I see the scales tipping in favor of NPB financially for stars at the end of their MLB careers.

- [Komiyama...] Isolated case or representative of a trend?

Hmmm. Can't say for sure. I'd like to think that it's an isolated case. We'll just have to wait a few years for more MLB cross overs to hit the end of their MLB careers.
Re: What are the Chances?
[ Author: torakichi | Posted: Nov 8, 2002 3:15 PM | HT Fan ]

Very informative westbaystars-san. Thanks.

- Interestingly, I recently read that a Japanese team was thinking about picking up Irabu.

I heard he was injured for the last half of the season. Do you think he'll still have a job in MLB next season? After all, he's much maligned (his own manager called him a "fat toad"!), but having said that, he did seem to perform well this season as a reliever.
-- Will the financial rewards keep them in the MLB to the very end?

- I don't understand this question. Taguchi could have been making a great deal more in Japan than in MLB last season. The Japanese teams this off season are starting to raise the stakes in an attempt to keep their stars. Except for the absolute top players, Japan will be more "financially rewarding."

True. I was thinking of Ichiro, Sasaki, and Matsui when I wrote that one. I see your point: it doesn't really apply to any of the others.

-- [Komiyama...] Isolated case or representative of a trend?

- Hmmm. Can't say for sure. I'd like to think that it's an isolated case. We'll just have to wait a few years for more MLB cross overs to hit the end of their MLB careers.

I get the feeling he was just playing a little brinksmanship. Now that the Mets let him go I think he might change his tune a little.
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