Orix and Kintetsu to Merge?

Today's Nikkan Sports has three pages on this issue today. Since it was a no-delivery day and I just picked up my paper, I haven't gone over it yet. I'm a bit constrained for time right now, so I'll just throw out the headlines and try to get something more definitive to you all after work.

The front page of Nikkan Sports has a headline taking up 1/4th of the page proclaiming "Moving to One League, 10 Ball Clubs" with the sub-headline of "Baseball World's Big Revolution." There is a color photo of Buffaloe fans at Osaka Dome who have "Against the merger" written in black pen on their jetto fuusen (the long balloons that are popular during the seventh inning). One sub-article states that the Central League is also against the merger in a smaller bold headline.

A chart has the upcoming schedule as follows:

6/17 Pacific League Emergency Board Meeting
6/21 Ce/Pa Board Meeting and Executive/Planning Committee Meeting
7/7 Owner Meeting

Page two is filled with past merger "emergencies."

Page three has a history of the two ball clubs and a chart of Pacific League attendance over the past five years. (I'll want to enter that just to have a record of it.)

That's all I have time for right now. It's a bit of a teaser, I know. But I'd rather read and understand what's written before I say anything more on the subject. And this kind of thing isn't my field of expertise - so it'll take a while for me to digest it to the point I can report on it as well.

Has anyone seen if Garland-san has anything on this, yet? I'll check later, but if anyone else sees anything, please post it for us.

I basically saw the same things you're talking about, on the news last night and on the Net this morning. This link from the Mainichi Daily Newspaper is a good start. [Mainichi Interactive - in English]

From what I can understand of the reports, Kintetsu is operating at a yearly loss of 4 billion yen, including the lease fee of 1 billion yen per year of Osaka Dome. I also saw the same meeting dates on the TV last night. I also heard the talk about possibly moving towards a 1 league system, but one of the commentators noted that several of the Central League clubs would object to the idea since their home games against the Tokyo Giants would decrease.

Gary Garland-san has a mention of the announcement, but it says "Developing..."

I'm hoping that somebody will step up and purchase the Buffaloes, and possibly move them to a different city, hoping to have the same success as the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters are seeing.

I heard that the Pacific League will only have five teams instead of the current six, and that Japanese baseball might have one league of 11 teams instead of the current two leagues with six teams each.

There is absolutely no way that the PL will have six teams next season because rules prohibit one company from owning more than one team.

Takashi Koizumi, president of the Orix Blue Wave, has said that the name and ground of the merged team has yet to be determined.

Both the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes and Orix BlueWave have been struggling at the gate. Kintetsu, the only team without a Japan Series championship, has lost about 4 billion yen annually due to high player salaries, and 1 billion yen to cover the rent for the Osaka Dome. Orix, on the other hand, have finished last in the PL standings the last two years and has seen a sharp decline in attendance since Ichiro Suzuki left for the Major Leagues.

Why can't the Pacific League create a new team? Because I know Japan has many professional teams!

[Edited by: Admin on Jun 15, 2004 1:27 AM]

First, head over to Japan Baseball Today as Garland-san has some updates beyond what the 14th newspapers have. I would like to add to Garland-san's report is that Yokohama is located pretty much the same distance from Tokyo as Tokorozawa (Seibu) and Makuhari Messa (Lotte). Before the season started, I seem to recall Nabetsu saying something unintelligiable about disolving Yokohama's team.

Attendance in the Pacific League over the last five years (with 2004 up to June 13):

Year     FDH         SL        OKB        CLM        HNHF       OBW
2000  2,786,000  1,743,500  1,148,000  1,192,000  1,475,000  1,223,000
2001  3,087,000  1,694,000  1,593,000  1,301,000  1,376,000  1,073,000
2002  3,108,000  1,682,000  1,350,000  1,210,000  1,260,000  1,099,000
2003  3,228,000  1,664,000  1,433,000  1,225,000  1,319,000  1,275,000
2004  1,419,000    784,000    559,000    601,000    802,000    516,000

As you can see, it would be foolish to leave Fukuoka, as Garland-san points out. Orix are on pace to do much better than last year, while Kintetsu is in decline. Having a winning Hanshin team, it's hard to compete for fans in the Osaka area, much like Nippon Ham had problems with sharing Tokyo Dome. With the move to Hokkaido, the Fighters are projected to see record attendance for them.

Back to the reports, though. According to Nikkan Sports, "a Pacific League representative" announced that the plan is to reduce to 10 teams and one league. Standings will be divided up between five teams in the east (taken from the surviving teams of the Fighters, Lions, Giants, Swallows, Marines, and BayStars), and five teams in the west (Hawks, Carp, BlueWave, Tigers, Buffaloes, and Dragons). With the Buffs and Wave merging, two eastern teams will have to merge under such a plan, or one will have to be absorbed by the west. Daiei and Lotte merging in Fukuoka will work as Garland-san says, unless you're a Marine fan. The Marines surviving and moving to Fukuoka would be interesting, as Daiei's owner wants to sell the team and I've never heard anything about Lotte's owner having any interest in selling.

The rest of the paper is just speculation on how the other teams may react. There should be more solid reaction in the morning paper on June 15th. But nothing official will likely be released until after the June 17th meeting at the earliest.

I would like to further note that Kintetsu, before the season, tried to sell the rights to the name on their uniforms, but the other owners protested and put a stop to that. So that it comes to light that Kintetsu is involved in some behind the scenes dealing doesn't come as much of a surprise. But the scale of it, with such consequences as to totally realign the baseball world is interesting. Are they truely starting a revolution?

It could well result in a revolution. The only problem is, once you start a revolution, it can be very hard to control -- for instance, the folks who started the French Revolution didn't mean to create Napoleon, but they did.

Jim Albright

Here's Jim Allen's take on the matter in the Daily Yomiuri.

Also, some interesting points were made on NHK News last night in relation to the merger. In particular, one of their pundits focussed on Kintetsu's un-profitability. [See also this thread]

His first point was that while Kintetsu was not alone in being a money-losing operation, it was leaking far more money than any of the others: 4,000,000,000 yen per year. His second point was that, in contrast to Kintetsu, while other teams lost money, too, they made great efforts in other areas such as scouting to offset that. Another point was that a 5-team Pa-League would never work because a league in which 20% of teams are out of action for three days so frequently is "not a league [worth following]".

I don't see anything regarding Kintetsu's financial troubles in the article. Has it been updated without notice? (I know CNN.com does that - sometimes changing the entire meaning of the article in a very Orwellian kind of way.) Or was that perhaps a different article?

Furthermore, three Cenral League teams have already expressed interest in the idea of a single 10 team league, with only Chunichi being against it. (Yokohama and Hiroshima are currently undecided.) So the TV rights of Giants' games are losing their holding power against a number of Central League teams.

Finally, the "casualty" of the Japan Series doesn't have to be. Already a proposal has been made to have an eastern and western division, similar, I would think, to the way the National League, for example, plays teams in other divisions, but the standings remain separate. I don't see that as being a show stopper for a merger at all.

I know Jim personally, and don't want to sound too negative, but he appears to be trying to make a controversy where there isn't one in the above two portions of the article. Perhaps the owners' comments weren't available to him at printing time, but the east/west divisions idea was proposed on Sunday. What's up, Jim?

Sorry, I should have been clearer. The third paragraph of that post was about the NHK's appearance on the news last night. I just added the Jim Allen link 'cos I thought it was interesting.

Thanks also for finding the "Pro Yakyu Finances" thread for me.

There was a great deal of second day reaction to the news in today's (June 15) Nikkan Sports. Of course, the front page was mainly Central League reaction to the crisis. Pacific League owners' reactions were pushed to page two.

Interestingly, the only team that came out and stated that they were against the idea of moving to a 10 team single league was Chunichi. Shirai-owner said that he thought that having 9 opponents during the season was too many. I feel that five is too few for 135-140 game, myself.

Owners of Hanshin (Kuboh-owner), Yakult (Hori-owner), and the Giants (Watanabe-owner) all stated that they are in favor of moving to a single league format with 10 teams. The arguement that the Central League owners wouldn't allow it are starting to crumble. And the reason is raising salaries without raising attendence:

Average attendance per home game

Year     HT       CD       YG       YS       HC      YBS
2000   35,000   37,000   53,800   23,100   16,600   24,600
2001   29,700   34,600   53,700   26,600   14,300   24,000
2002   38,300   34,300   54,100   25,700   14,900   21,900
2003   47,100   33,400   53,800   24,900   13,500   20,500
2004   51,500   33,300   53,800   24,700   14,200   21,200

Total yearly salaries (in units of oku yen)

Year     HT       CD       YG       YS       HC      YBS
2000  17.8180  23.3140  35.4731  19.0440  16.2570  22.1895
2001  15.3290  25.7978  41.1577  19.3280  16.7690  20.5810
2002  17.7630  25.7130  38.6085  19.9740  17.8980  20.6540
2003  21.9990  26.9340  37.0328  20.3653  16.7200  22.9770
2004  27.3560  27.9290  40.2820  19.9590  17.1260  28.1860

Kintetsu had no comment, but the remaining seven owners (or their representatives) said that they would wait until the July 17 7 owners' meeting to side one way or the other.

The comment that most moved me, though, was from Lotte's spokesman (and son of the owner). He said that reducing just the Pacific League to five teams would be fine. To make up for it, a team or three from Korea and/or Taiwan could be added to the Pacific League, and the foreign player limit abolished for nationals of the three countries. That's the kind of idea I've been hoping for for years. It's great to see someone who actually has some clout forwarding the idea at long last.

[Corrected date of owners' meeting from July 17 to July 7.]

All of this speculation I'm reading on the Net from places like Yahoo! Japan and Sponichi Annex is interesting I'll admit, but I have to worry about a certain report I read about high salaried players being released. One speculative report stated that Norihiro Nakamura and Hisashi Iwakuma would be released after this season to save some money.

Now, I can see the motive behind this move, but what I can't bare to see is the possibility that Watanabe might just open up his wallet some more to buy these guys. I know that Hiroki Kokubo is already doing a great job at 3rd for the Giants, so what's the need for Nakamura unless he changes positions (or possibly with the change to a 1 league system using the DH rule). But I can just see Watanabe drooling over the possibility of adding Iwakuma alongside Uehara and Kisanuki. Hehe, I guess all this speculation has led to some of my own.

I'm also reading that some reporters think Yakult is a candidate for a merger, but the president is against it. Same for Fukuoka.

Hey there Jingu Bleacher Bum, hope things are good for you in Tokyo.

In reply to your post, my amateur response is this: it wouldn't make a any difference. That *%&$#0@ Watanabe could pay zillions for Iwakuma and Nakamura, but it wouldn't even make a dent Kintetsu's losses in the long term.

To relate some very non-expert opinions that were bandied about at a local watering hole tonight: it's not like NPB has never been a single league before, and it's not like it would damage NPB to be so in the future. If Kintetsu and Orix merge, two other teams (e.g., Hiroshima and Daiei - NB: this is not my opinion) should also merge to make a one-league ten-team league.

I find this whole topic really interesting, and I'd be interested to hear what all of you think about the matter. Yes! That means you, the people who lurk around this site but don't post. Come on! Make your opinions known! It's not like you'll be vilified for voicing your views. Let's hear what you have to say.

First, a quick sardonic note: the merger between Kintetsu and Orix will result in Orix' entire pitching staff, except for Kazuo Yamaguchi, being released. Kintetsu's staff is no great shakes, but a big improvement over Orix'.

Okay, now getting off the wiseass tip, I wonder how this will affect the status of the Buffaloes' players vis a vis MLB. Nobody has yet written about MLB teams coming in and scooping up Iwakuma, Nakamura, Omura, Abe, Isobe or Kitagawa. The current contracts those players have is with Kintetsu. Moreover, this current merger transaction falls between the cracks of the extant common NPB agreement. Thus, these players could perhaps make a case that they are free agents once Kintetsu ceases to exist. While none of the Japanese sports dailies that I read (which is 5-6 of them every day) has brought this up in connection with MLB, at least a couple have alluded to a possible bidding war for Nakamura and Iwakuma among the Japanese teams (kind of ironic, no?). That would seem to imply that the contracts may become null once the merger is executed.

But another tack that the sports dailies have yet to write about is that the history of the development of Japanese baseball has inevitably resulted in what we are looking at now. The model it's predicated on is now outmoded.

I'll have a lot more to say about this in a commentary I will post on my site Wednesday night PST. But suffice to say the possible shakeup envisioned by the collective of team owners is the wrong medicine and will only hasten the end of the body they are seeking to preserve. It's like the old treatment of bleeding (or the Japanese baseball equivalent of the strategic hamlet program; killing some teams to save others).

- I'm also reading that some reporters think Yakult is a candidate for a merger, but the president is against it. Same for Fukuoka.

If the Swallows are a candidate for a merger, whom would they merge with? The first team that comes to mind is the Yokohama BayStars. They are located not too far from each other, and I think that they are partly owned by the same company (correct me if I'm wrong). Any news on these two merging?

- If the Swallows are a candidate for a merger, whom would they merge with? The first team that comes to mind is the Yokohama BayStars. They are located not too far from each other, and I think that they are partly owned by the same company (correct me if I'm wrong). Any news on these two merging?

I haven't heard any rumours or news blips on which team they would merge with, if they were to merge, but my co-workers are speculating Yokohama. The only articles I saw on Yakult merging basically stated that Yakult was a likely candidate. Here's what Gary Garland stated in his merger section on Japan Baseball Daily:

"First of all, Yakult Swallows president Tagiku said that he may be able to see his ballclub combine with another one. Yakult, much like Orange County, California, really screwed itself when it lost its shirt playing around in the derivatives market in the late 90's and since the team is in the red and they want to cut their debt level, a merger with another of the pro nines could happen. However, he then emphasized that he isn't thinking of or conducting any merger transactions at the present time."

[Latest merger news from Garland-san can be found here.]

- The comment that most moved me, though, was from Lotte's spokesman (and son of the owner). He said that reducing just the Pacific League to five teams would be fine. To make up for it, a team or three from Korea and/or Taiwan could be added to the Pacific League, and the foreign player limit abolished for nationals of the three countries. That's the kind of idea I've been hoping for for years. It's great to see someone who actually has some clout forwarding the idea at long last.

Is it possible the Pacific League owners might get "desparate" enough to propose teams in Seoul (pop. 20.25 million), Hong Kong (7.35 million), and Taipei (pop. 7.35 million)? An 8 team Pacific League that might outdraw the Central League? Probably not.

What's really all sad about this is that folks in the Kansai region just don't tend to give enough respect to Kintetsu (I won't speak for Orix, I don't live in in Kobe). Everything is centered around the pinstripes of Hanshin. What irks me most is that Koshien is, in fact, in Hyougo Prefecture, a definite part of the Kansai region, but not as true in an Osaka sense as say Kintetsu and their home, the Osaka Dome (just take the JR Loop Line).

Sure, I know that Hanshin once went by the name the Osaka Hanshin Tigers, and that the Hanshin Depa-to is in downtown Osaka, but Kintetsu is the only true Osaka team. What it all comes down to is the lack of interest in the Pacific League.

However, some of the most exciting baseball talent in NPB today is in the Pacific League, and before Kyoujin goes and signs 'em all up, the people of Osaka need to stop watching the team cursed by Colonel Sanders and get hip to Iwakuma, Nori, and the rest of the Buffies. A great team with a great baseball cap and a rich history, as rich as Pearls.

One league is a joke, let's not make this happen: Osaka baseball fans unite!

This is interesting.

If you go to one league, with 5 teams in two divisions, then you have at least have 1 series of "inter-division" games at all times (required due to the odd number of teams in a division). You would have to have each team play teams from the other division at least 6 times per year.

So, your schedule would be something like

5 teams in other division x 6 games = 30 inter-division games
4 other teams in your division x 28? games = 112 intra-division games
Total games for the season = 142

Unless I'm figuring wrong, no team would actually "lose" games vs. the Giants in this scenario, but 5 teams would gain 6 games vs. the Giants?

A more "radical" schedule would be 20 games vs. all same division teams and 12 games vs. all "other" division teams for a more traditional 140 game schedule.

Here's Jim Allen in the Daily Yomiuri again.

I agree with the opinion voiced in this thread (and elsewhere) that a single league with two divisions looks like a good idea.

On the topic of Osakans not supporting the Buffaloes, I must say that during my (almost) decade in Osaka I came across a surprising number of people that said they went off them when they abandoned Fujiidera for the Dome. Now, I'm sure that's not the resaon for Osaka-dwellers' indifference to the Buffaloes, but the fact that it was a recurring theme among people I met did strike me as interesting.

Funny thing about our capitalist society. Sports leagues have difficulty surviving like major corporations do. For the Giants to resist any type of revenue sharing hurts the Giants as much as it does the smaller teams. The Giants will not make the same money if they no longer have anyone to play.

Revenue sharing should be an option here. But a simple 50-50 split is not likely to help much either, since then you begin to get those who will gripe that they don't play the Giants as much as some of the others if there is an unballance schedule.

I would suggest taking a page from the NFL - perhaps the best run professional league in North America - where all gate receipts are pooled and spit amongst all teams. This way teams with a smaller draw, smaller stadiums, and lesser quality opponents still prosper. Of course, the NFL also shares television money and has formulated the most successful of salary caps while merchandising money has equitable split between all the teams and the players association.

Models do exist to keep this unstability from happening in NPB. Sometimes you have to think outside the diamond.

As the NHL is looking at major financial and player's union issues, another league is cropping up to possibly take over as the NHL has the potential to implode. Is this an option in Japan? A whole new league structure could help rid the curent old-school owners too set in their ways to make it worthwhile for anyone but themselves.

- Funny thing about our capitalist society.

Captialism isn't hurting these teams. The corporations that own the teams are hurting the organizations.

What they should do is install a luxury tax. Take a set amount teams can spend, if they break that amount then that money is funneled to other teams. This would work against the Giants. It will help other teams get to the playoffs, like it has helped the Marlins, Twins, and Athletics.

There aren't any other leagues in Japan except the industrial league. They aren't going to compete for anything successfully.

Also, another problem with Japanese teams is the corporations that run the teams themselves. Kintetsu, for example, is losing about $36,000,000 USD/a year. This is hardly a good company. Orix, on the other hand, continues to grow economically. Their New York stocks continue to rise, but the problem is how these corporations market their teams.

Also about the article I posted, it's a very interesting article. The two teams want to keep all their players, though this can't happen, as the merger will result in some getting released. What I am wondering is, will the players who get released become free agents and not be held to the Japanese reserve clause? Also they need to fix the solution of where the two teams would play next year.

The Marlins, Twins, and Athletics did not need any luxury tax to help them be competitive and reach the playoffs. In all three cases it was succesfull long term planning, minor-league systems that produced a weath of young talent, and in the case of the Athletics, the smarts to sign that young talent (Mulder, Hudson, Zito, etc.) to long term contracts at low costs, and getting rid of them in exchange for more young talent when they became too expensive to retain (Giambi, Tejada, etc.).

All of this happened way before any Luxury Tax had been instituted (and the Luxury Tax hasn't been around that long anyway).

The MLB Luxury tax in and of itself is a joke. It was instituted to stop one team, namely the Yankees, from out-spending it's competition. The tax has instead created the very situation it wanted to prevent. The Yankees don't fear the luxury tax because any penalty the MLB can impose on them for going over the tax threshold is but a drop in the Yankees' ocean of revenue. No other team in Baseball can match the Yankees' revenue stream - not the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, no one. Thus, while the Yankees continue to spend and increase their payroll, every other team is keeping their costs down for fear of having to pay the Luxury Tax penalty.

In 2002, the last year prior to the luxury tax, the Yankees' payroll was $20 million dollars higher then their nearest competitor (Red Sox). Since the institution of the Luxury Tax, that gap has increased to over $60 million and shows no signs of decreasing. The tax also discourages small market teams like Milwaukee from spending too much money on their payrolls because they know the less money they spend, the more they get from revenue sharing and the tax funds.

Given that Yomiuri has a revenue stream that no other Japan League team can match, it's almost certain that a Luxury Tax, if applied the same way, will have no effect on them and likely will create the very situation it was designed to prevent, ala MLB and the Yankees.

- Since the institution of the Luxury Tax, that gap has increased to over $60 million and shows no signs of decreasing.

The Yankees haven't won the World Series since 2000. So all the money in the world isn't going to help them. They can spend, spend, and even spend more, but it has all been in vain.

- The tax also discourages small market teams like Milwaukee from spending too much money on their payrolls because they know the less money they spend, the more they get from revenue sharing and the tax funds.

Also, Milwaukee never spent any money before the installation of the luxury tax. Milwaukee has never used any money from revenue sharing, they don't go after free agents. They use there minor league system, which they hope will turn there fortunes around.

Yes, I know this isn't the greatest solution, but right now, nothing is.

The idea of people in Osaka being less than enthusiastic about the Osaka Dome is interesting and reminds me of a similar situation happening in MLB.

The Montreal Expos moved to the cavernous Olympic Stadium from the outdoor Jarry Park, and many fans didn't take to the new home. Long term, the attendance became such a huge problem that no one wanted to own the team, and now MLB is responsible for it and looking to relocate it as soon as next season, if possible.

Although there are five domes in Japan, perhaps people might enjoy watching games more in outdoor settings.

As for the merger, I say it is about time. The two-league system works for MLB because there is nearly equal fan support across both leagues, and media coverage of both leagues is also equal, so that one league cannot escape the public consciousness to the point where it is highly regarded as inferior, no matter the quality of play.

The fans, particularly those of the Central League, would be better off, as they would become familiar with a wider variety of stars and have a chance to see them play before they end up in MLB.

As for playoffs, how about East 1st vs. West 2nd and West 1st vs. East 2nd, with the winners meeting in the Japan Series?

One league, same rules. DH or not? Personally, I'd love to see Matsuzaka flail away at 140 km/h pitches.

- Personally, I'd love to see Matsuzaka flail away at 140 km/h pitches.

Good call. I don't know how he bats, but pitchers that can bat a bit are always an extra attraction. When he was with Hanshin, Trey Moore was awesome. I remember at one time he was batting over .300, and he was the Tigers' leading hitter for a period of about two days (although that says more about the Tigers' batting prowess at the time than Moore's ability). The loss of Moore's batting is certainly one of the drawbacks of his transfer to the Pa League.

Here's a very interesting story on the battle of the merger. [Link - Daily Yomiuri - English]

If they get to keep their star players, the new team will be an immediate contender. The BlueWave have leadoff hitter Arihito Muramatsu and stars such as Yoshitomo Tani, Jose Ortiz, and Roosevelt Brown. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes have hitters like Koichi Isobe and Norihiro Nakamura, and pitchers like Hisashi Iwakuma (who's 10-0 this season with a 1.96 ERA), Kevin Beirne, Jeremy Powell, and Tetsuro Kawajiri.

There is absolutely no way that the owners will let the new team keep all the stars. They'll probably be allowed to protect a certain number of stars and the rest will be drafted by the other ten teams.

In the first article, I'm suprised to hear that Japan needs more teams. The one-team farm system is definitely inadequate, but to have stars on every team, there needs to be few teams.

Will Japan ever get rid of the foreign player limit? Many Japanese players will still have their jobs. For example, Brown and Ortiz are definitely not hitting better than Tani and Muramatsu. Then teams would not have players batting .200 in the starting lineup and this competitive brand of baseball [without foreign player limits] might attract more fans.

[Admin: Added clarifying statement to last sentence. I think that's the point you were making.]

As a long-time and current Orix fan, anything that will take away the joy of watching games on grass under the sun at Green Stadium (Yahoo! only officially/commercially) will be a terrible personal blow.

As regards how the proposed merger plays out, though, I have not one doubt that it will only be allowed as long as it benefits the Yomiuri franchise, at the cost of every other team, as well as the players, fans, umpires, etc., etc. Since the inauguration of "free agency," through the un-debated fraud of the "reverse-draft," to the handing over of Kokubo gratis and without even the pretense of competitive bidding, nothing is ever done on the business side of NPB that doesn't directly benefit the Kyojin (and they still struggle).

Very sadly, cynically, I don't believe the teams have any interest in revolution, but will stage a farce of reform. I've come to think that, as changes in the style and culture of American baseball has often seemed to foreshadow those of the larger society (or used to, until very recently), NPB has ended up echoing those of Japanese society: the dominance of the LDP being repeated in the rise of the "pure" Giants; the 1980's Bubble economy being shadowed by the great '80s Lions teams pretense to individuality while working under the most iron-fisted of managers, while scorning the real individualists, like Ochiai. Well, an analogy somewhat overstated, no doubt.

But to finish, it seems that NPB, especially the PL, will go through violent imitations of reform, like the banks and the bureaucracy have in only the past few years, and yet try its hardest not to alter the fundamental flaws and inequities.

I'll be ever so glad to be proven wrong, but everything I've learned (quite a bit, if very secondhand) predicts a bland and eventually disastrous false compromise, not of goals but of principles.

It's been a while since I've posted on this board, but I always enjoy browsing the pages here for the entertaining mix of information and opinion. I'm afraid my own posts tend to lean more toward the latter. Nevertheless, as someone pointed out in this thread, this is certainly an issue that invites opinion if not full-fledged complaints about the state of Japanese Baseball. So here's mine.

In my 13 years of following Japanese baseball here in Tokyo, I have always held the opinion that interleague play would be one of the best ways to address the inequities between the two leagues, from a fan's perspective at least. It doesn't take a genius, however, to see why the Central League owners are so stubbornly opposed to this. I've never really understood (nor have I made any real attempt to!) just how the Pro Yakyu money pie is cut in terms of gate and television revenue. I've more or less resigned myself to the general perception that it all revolves around the Giants, and nothing in Japanese baseball moves without Watanabe-owner's say-so.

From reading the posts on this thread, I cannot help but share in the general sense of dread that the merging of teams will put on a good imitation of "change" while maintaining the status quo which favors the Giants, since that's the way it's been time out of mind.

My more general feeling on the issue is that the whole thing is just indicative of the inability of Japanese baseball to promote and present itself in a meaningful way to its fans. When I hear about issues like this, I can't help but wonder if the guys at the top even know where their true fan base lies? Attendance is down because teams make no effort whatsoever to bring charm or identity to their home stadiums. I have to echo the thoughts of the fan who posted about the predominance of domes in this country, but even many of the outdoor stadiums are so lacking in charm, it's a wonder thay get the turnouts they do. One visit to Chiba Marine Stadium will attest to this. The state of televised broadcasts has been abysmal for as long as I've been here, and has actually gotten worse in the past few years. It seems like every time an "economic" issue like this pops up, these are the last things that anyone wants to address. I'm not even sure if the owners are simply conveniently ignoring this or if they are completely oblivious to it! Although I sense that as more and more fans over here gain exposure to the way things are done in the Major Leagues, the issue will become harder and harder to ignore.

I can't help but think that there are so many sensible and realistic alternatives to helping restore the health of Japanese Baseball than simply cutting the number of teams. The fact that, to my knowledge, none of these options have ever been seriously explored, combined with the fact that the owners are now ready to take such a drastic action, only proves that the owners know no bounds in their willingness to screw the fans. Instead of trying to increase their fan base and improve their product, everyone seems to making a greedy rush for what's left of the pie. And if things continue like this, there won't be any pie left for anyone to share.

Yep.

Speaking of NPB needing to be more like MLB, I've noticed that all the teams here [in Japan] are owned by companies. Is it possible for an individual to own a team? Since some companies don't like to take on losses that a team creates, how about an individual with lots of money? Is it against NPB policy to sell teams to individuals?

Today's update says the merger will go through, except that none of the details (players, location, schedule, even dropping the registry fee) have been worked out. It's clear that no one has given a thought to anything except how to either gain, or at least not lose, any possible advantage to themselves or their organization. The fans (and players) can enjoy whatever remains of the short end. Watanabe-owner, lead swine of the I-me-mine chorus (sorry, but I couldn't help at least one insult), has nixed any shift to a one-league system, however.

Does anyone think they'll kill off a Central League franchise as well? Two leagues with an uneven number of teams seems rather un-Japanese somehow.

It's clear that no one has given a thought to anything except how to either gain, or at least not lose, any possible advantage to themselves or their organization. The fans (and players) can enjoy whatever remains of the short end.

It's this kind of shortsighted "leadership" which could lead to things NPB owners and many of its fans don't want: to turn NPB into a MLB feeder or to some merger with MLB. After all the kicking around the possible scenarios for what could happen to NPB, I've come to the conclusion that, by far, the greatest risk of these outcomes lies in NPB's own shortsighted "leadership."

They may be able to survive sticking it to the fans and players, as you say, but that isn't the best way to avoid the two outcomes they deem unacceptable. Personally, I think they are so focused on the short term they're giving no thought to any long term issues. Screwing the players can only send more of them into the hands of MLB, and mistreating the fans may make them more interested in MLB.

Jim Albright

Shortsighted leadership is not restricted to NPB. MLB and Bud Selig tried to get rid of the Minnesota Twins and Montreal Expos. Fortunately, the Twins have played some great baseball the past two years. Unfortunately, the Expos are the MLB "orphans" being run by MLB. Both in 2003 and 2004 - 22 of their "home" games have been played in San Juan, Puerto Rico with Montreal only getting 59 home dates.

As Whitey Herzog so eloquently put it, baseball owners "have got to be dumber about their own business than any group of people I've ever seen." I guess that's a global phenomenon.

If any of the worst-case scenarios happens (meaning for me an increasingly anemic one-league system which is eventually dominated by the Giants, ON-cannon-style), within five years we will see the top young players refusing to accept draft offers from most NPB teams (like Fukudome did to Kintetsu, and my poor BlueWave suffered from twice!) and entering MLB's farm system, as well as every free-agent who can do so attempting to break in to the majors. Why would any ambitious and skilled player want to go for what would be very quickly seen to be a "small potatoes" championship, and even that out of reach of all but two or three teams?

(Oh, and with very few exceptions [B. Rickey and B. Veeck, notably] Major League and Japan owners clearly represent the scum de la scum of capitalist society. Now, GWB3, president-by-appointment, was once an owner (and pal of Mr. Enron himself) - what more proof of the quality of their leadership qualities and business vision could one need?)

- If any of the worst-case scenarios happens (meaning for me an increasingly anemic one-league system which is eventually dominated by the Giants [...]

The one league aspect isn't the problem, the Giants' domination of it is. The problem is that right now, the fluid situation leaves teams scurrying to ally themselves with the Giants to stay in the game, so to speak, and opponents risk getting frozen out of the picture. I see Gary Garland opposes revenue sharing not only because the Giants won't let it happen (I wholeheartedly agree with him about that), but because some teams would become, in Gary's words, "welfare queens."

I think Gary had proposed fining teams if they don't compete. Well, you could tie a big chunk of any money to be gained through revenue sharing to winning, which could address Gary's legitimate concern on that score. In the current climate, though, it's purely academic unless everybody gets together and forces it down the Giants' throats. I can't see that happening. Revenue sharing would dramatically reduce the impact of losing or gaining games against the Giants, and would reduce the disparity in team incomes. Sure, the Giants would still be the biggest and most powerful team, but their financial advantage would not be nearly so overwhelming.

As other posters have pointed out, NPB owners have no monopoly on stupidity, even in the baseball business. The idiocy of MLB baseball's powers is one of the most favorable aspects of NPB's position vis-a-vis MLB, along with its "home-town advantage" in Japan, and the cultural differences, and the technological/logistical barriers to intercontinental baseball.

Overall, what I see is that if NPB vs. MLB were a chess match, MLB would have a small advantage in position which would not be decisive in itself. NPB, by playing at least as well as MLB, can manage a draw, but has a smaller margin for error than MLB does. One of the gravest errors NPB could make is to try to use the current crisis to screw the players - because the players have the MLB option, which will not go away. So long as NPB is seen as a safe haven by players, it is in a good position. If they lose that, though, their position would become dramatically weaker.

Jim Albright

- I think Gary had proposed fining teams if they don't compete. Well, you could tie a big chunk of any money to be gained through revenue sharing to winning, which could address Gary's legitimate concern on that score.

I think revenue sharing would only really work if there were enforced minimum and maximum payrolls, say between 25-oku to 45-oku en. The Players' Union in MLB has traditionally opposed this kind of thing, but the Japanese might go along with it to save jobs. And the Giants would obviously be against it. But I think having a set payroll range with revenue sharing would be good for the league as a whole. It would be good for the Giants, because it would keep the league more competitive; and the Giants wouldn't be the Giants without a league to beat on. And a stronger league would add value to all those Giants wins.

I would also like to propose another, more radical, solution to the Orix-Kintetsu merger: sell the Buffaloes to Yomiuri, and allow them to operate a second team. Yes, I know it is against the rules to run two teams in NPB, but I think the fact is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the teams would be in different leagues. There would be a real incentive for Yomiuri to have both teams meet in the Nippon Series. Of course, there would have to be some regulation for transfering players, but it's not like the Giants don't take whomever they want already (see Kokubo, Hiroki).

There are a lot of anti-Giants fans on this board, and I'm certainly no Kyojin fan myself. But I must admitted that they know how to utilize their numerous advantages (fairly and unfairly). Wouldn't NPB be better off if the Giants used some of that huge budget, media monopoly, and beauracracy for another team as well (Kintetsu)?

I used to dislike the Giants, under Nagashima. This was fun, especially when my BlueWave beat them in 1996. They were an honorable opponent.

Then then "reverse draft" was instituted, allowing them to soak up their choice of sure-thing young players (while the Buffs and BlueWave were turned down by their top picks). I now hated them, but wanted the players, most of whom (Hideki, Nishi, Uehara, Takahashi) I very much liked to watch, to do well; waiting for the bullpen to blow the game.

Then, last year, after having already taken the best of the fake "draft" and the best free agents, they took the best free agents again, at the same positions!

I no longer hate them, I simply can't enjoy watching the games. How could anyone root for a team that holds all-star level players as back-ups, just because they have the money to do so? (The Yankees have also reached this stage, if in a slightly more openly competitive league.) The Giants have always been the problem, and never have had any intention (or even interest) in the health of "Japanese Professional Baseball."
As the other teams die (another contraction looks inevitable) and their TV ratings dwindle, will they wake up? Does anyone think the game itself matters to the owners?

There's also talk that the Chiba Lotte Marines (owned by the Shigemitsu family's Lotte supermarkets in Japan and South Korea) and the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks (another supermarket company that is in debt) will merge their baseball operations. This would make a single ten team league more feasible. [Lotte is primarilly a confectionaries company, at least in Japan. They also have a chain of restaraunts.]

Lotte has relocated before. They left Sendai in 1978 and Kawasaki in 1992.

A single league with eleven teams is not possible, but with ten teams the single league would have two divisions with five teams apiece.

So, 31-year-old whiz kid web-millionaire is trying to buy the Buffs. Does anyone think:

1. it's a positive development,
2. anyone in their right mind would buy the team at this time, or
3. the powers-that-be in NPB will admit such an apparently non-traditional type into their midst (or perhaps "mist")?

NPB's "One League" idea is a sad story. This is all because of that idiot Watanabe. Japan has not been "one league" since 1950. It's turning back the clock! No more Japan Series?! It is so sad.

At first I had to agree with Gary Garland and his comments about the Live Door president Takafumi Horie just wanting publicity for his "announcement" of buying the Kintetsu Buffaloes, but now I'm fully rooting for this guy. I just read an article from Nikkan Sports that says Mr. Horie would be going to watch the July 4th game at Osaka Dome vs. the Orix Blue Wave to try and gain support from the fans!

Mr. Watanabe and others were quick to dismiss the offer, but Mr. Horie is going to be persistant about it, and hopefully he can gain enough support from fans that the older NPB fools will have to listen to him! I hope this gets TV coverage, or at least some more articles on the net, so I can witness him sticking his tongue out at those who were quick to dismiss him. If anybody has anything else to add, I'm all ears (well eyes actually on the net).

It would be nice to have such an owner in NPB to be sure, but only if he has more money to work with - if he's as undercapitalized as the Wharton School economist Gary discusses says he is, all Horie's good intentions won't be worth s*** (er, cr*p). If he got someone else with more money with him, it might work.

Jim Albright

The July 5, 2004 Japan Times [Link] reports on the Kintetsu players reaction and protest to the proposed merger of the Buffaloes and Orix BlueWave.

I was reading an article about how some of the Kintetsu players were gathering to sign a petition against the merger. Well apparently the President of Kintetsu, Yamaguchi, has stated that if any of the players of the Buffaloes participated in the petition against the merger they will automatically be removed from the protected list, meaning they will be released at the end of the season.

Now, was this a good move or a bad one on the part of the management? I can see some behind the doors works going on here, with players intentionally signing such a petition looking to head to MLB, or possibly a new contract worth more money somewhere else in NPB. Hmmm, speculation rises again. Isn't Norihiro Nakamura being asked to "restructure" his contract to be more economically feasible for the new team?

I haven't seen this, but it seems to fit the Buffaloes' management to a T, since it would show tham as being ultra-shortsighted, peevish, bullying, and unappreciative. Oh, and rude to the fans they will count on for the future commercial success of the team.

How do these men get to be the heads of major organizations like this, when they are clearly as dumb as the average bag of ball-peen hammers?

The AP is running a story today that there is going to be one league merger talks in September and that even Seibu is considering a merger.

I would think that of any team not called the Giants, the Lions would have the most money.

MLB.com just put a story on their home page about the merger. [Link]

When I lived in Japan 10 years ago, I always though it was weird that people would not follow teams in the Pacific League. There are only 12 teams in the country and how hard is it to follow one team in each of the leagues? Many people in the States have their favorite team, then a team that they may follow in the other league.

I talked with a friend yesterday about the merger and I said to her, this one league proposal should have happened a while ago. With the bubble bursting, the Japanese economy has stagnated for ten years. Some of the teams moved into new stadiums, but "domes." I have been to the Fukuoka Dome (which I like) and Tokyo Dome (which I hate), but they do not have much of a personality to them. I told my friend I can barely tell the difference because it looks like a cookie cutter stadium that we had in the 1970s in the U.S.

Daiei has had financial difficulties because of the huge amount of money placed into building their own stadium complex, which has been partially sold off. Other than the Giants, no team has built a stadium on their own. All other teams pay rent for the use of the stadium. Kintetsu moved from a facility that was based on their train line to a stadium that had no Kintetsu connections. The Carp proposed building a new facility, but eventually decided that the new facility would just not be financially viable - meaning that the Carp will have few new revenue streams for the team.

Nankai (pre-Daiei purchase), had their stadium right next to their train line terminus and eventually sold the team during the bubble era because they felt that running a team was too expensive. This was even prior to free agency. Hankyu got out early as well, selling to Orix.

For any Japanese team your revenue is from the following:

• Advertising
• Attendance
• Merchandise

Currently there is no revenue sharing system. There probably are some agreements for national broadcast rights for each league. The key word is each league.

I told my friend that when MLB merged the AL and NL (remember they were separate entities until the 1990s, the AL expanded first, then the NL expanded second, etc.) it brought the ability to negotiate as one league and also brought the system together for everything: business, promotion, penalties, etc. This has made it easier for the league to make agreements with businesses and easier for the league to present an image. Also, when a Mariners' Ichiro jersey is sold, the M's get a percentage of the revenue, but MLB gets the majority of the share. This is then split evenly with the other teams. Currently, there is no sharing of the merchandise revenue to my knowledge in Japan.

When I was in Japan 10 years ago as a student, the Pacific League came out with the slogan, "Sexy Pacific League." I can remember watching spring training in Fukuoka at the Dome and seeing these models dressed in each team's uniforms with each teams managers face on top of the models face in a commercial on the big screen. I thought to myself, "What in the h*** are they thinking?" Are they trying to attract female fans or what? That does not even take into account on the ticket voucher, there was a picture of each team's uniforms modified to look like a dress that a woman would wear. I just could not believe what I was seeing.

As a unified league, the league can present itself to the Japanese people as one entity. The single league could better promote the game and become financially stable.

I would say that some teams will always draw better, but some teams moved when they should not have. Nishitetsu (pre-Seibu), based in Fukuoka, sold their team in the 1970s because they felt that it was too expensive, and the people of Kyushu desparately wanted to support a team. The Hawks were not that great when the moved from Osaka, but they are one of the best supported teams in Japan. Also, I think that Nippon Ham was smart to relocate to Sapporo. I am not an advocate of franchise movement, but I think that we would all agree that the Fighters were the fifth or sixth most popular team in the Kanto area.

Teams have to create a regional identity.

• Hawks: Fukuoka
• Carp: Hiroshima
• Tigers: Osaka, Kobe
Dragons: Nagoya
• Fighters: Hokkaido
• Giants: Tokyo
• BayStars: Yokohama
• Marines: Chiba

Yakult, Chiba, and Seibu are all fighting for an identity because they are in the same Tokyo area. Seibu is looking to merge with Lotte, but I think that Seibu should position itself as Saitama's team, not as a Tokyo team. Chiba is trying to do that with Lotte. There are few Yakult fans out there (I love the YS hat). Orix and Kintetsu are just not as popular because of the draw that Hanshin has in Osaka and Kobe.

The merged team would be smart to look at other locations: Matsuyama, Sendai, Niigata, etc. for possible regionalization of their team.

Right now the merger is putting the 2005 Central League schedule on hold. [Link - Japan Times]

The six Pacific League clubs are expected to unite against the Central League clubs who wish to keep the two league system. [Link - Japan Times]

Hanshin and Yomiuri got into a contfrontation about realingment. Also the five Central League teams that oppose the one league system are expected to put together a document stating their opposition to the one-league system. Yakult Swallows' President, Yoshikazu Tagiku, said he would like to see six teams in the CL and five in the PL (including the merged Orix-Kintetsu team). [Link - The Japan Times]

The Yomiuri Giants' player association began collection signatures to oppose a one-league format and a planned merger between Orix-Kintetsu. They're the six team to organize a signature drive. Even Tuffy Rhodes took part in the signature drive. They collected 672 signatures in less than 25 minutes. [Link - The Japan Times]

Orix and Kintetsu signed a basic agreement on the merger. The agreement was signed amid strong opposition from fans and players. Orix president, Takashi Koizumi, and Buffaloes president, Tetsuya Kobayashi, announced the signing. Orix's owner, Yoshihiko Miyauchi, will become the new team's majority owner. Orix will own 80% of the new team and Kintetsu will own the remaining percent of the new team. [Link [Japan Times]

Kintetsu and Orix have signed a formal contract on the merger Friday. Kintetsu didn't disclose any portion of the deal, but denied a report that Kintetsu would withdraw from the baseball business in the next three years. Though Buffaloes' president Tetsuya Kobayashi didn't rule out the possibility that Kintestu would abadon baseball operations in the future. If you ask me this makes no since, and the merger continues to look more difficult for the NPB. [Link - Japan Times]

A Kyodo News survey released Saturday showed that 74% of people are in favor of a two-league system. Also that only 12% are in favor of switching to a one-league system. [Link - Japan Times]

The Tokyo District Court urged the NPB not to approve the Orix-Kintetsu merger after the JBBPA filed a injuction against the merger. [Link - Japan Today]

"Baseball commissioner's office postpones decision on team merger at Tokyo court's urging." [Link - Yahoo! News] (These links die out quickly, so good luck finding this story if it is several hours old. If it is not there, you might find a link at the top here.)

The Tokyo District Court has turned down a request by the JBBPA to stop the merger. The player's association has filed an appeal to the Tokyo High Court. [Link - Japan Times]