NPB and Cooperstown

I read through your latest NPB/HOF article, and it's very interesting as usual.

I just wanted to ask if you've ever considered measuring players' peaks, in addition to their career totals. There are certain Hall of Famers who've made it in based on high peaks, rather than long careers (Sandy Koufax, Kirby Pucket, Don Drysdale, and Duke Snider come to mind).

Katsuya Nomura jumps out at me as a guy who dominated during his peak years, but who's percentage stats suffer as a result of several poor seasons toward the end of his career. Kazuhisa Inao is another.

Perhaps something like a Black/Gray Ink test would help illustrate the peaks of some of these guys, and also show how good they were relative to the competition.

Just a thought.

First of all, thanks for the kind words. I understand the idea, and actually used it to a small extent in my Oh stuff, but reconsidered it because I do not think it is proper within my analytical framework because:

1. you'd have to know which league the player is going to (NL or AL),
2. if you do black ink or gray ink, you really must do runs scored and RBI, and with the difference in power numbers, etc, a player's position in batting order may be affected,
3. if you dream up a world in which NPB players are in the majors, you've got to put them all in simultaneously, which complicates the analysis,
4. the adjustment figures work better over time than any single season, as luck has a better chance to even out, and
5. we don't have good data to know if players other than Oh (and perhaps Nagashima) were benefitting from a significant park advantage.

This is a bit of a problem on the career level, but much more so at the level you are suggesting.

For pitchers, you really can't do what you're talking about, as nobody with a major league managing job would have used Inao or many other pitchers the way they were used in Japan. I made the judgement that they would have been used less per season, and would have gained longevity. That means some of the innings from the best seasons are effectively being moved to later seasons. Over a career I can justify this, but not on an individual season basis.

Nomura has such longevity at such a difficult position that he doesn't need any help. Carter, Fisk, and Bench look very similar. I really can't think of a NPB hitter who played so well at his peak to be seen as Cooperstown material, but then slowed such that he fell short other than Nakanishi, and you can't ignore the injury out of existence in my view. If you do, then we have to talk about Chapman, Conigliaro, and Chino Smith of the Negro Leagues, and probably at least a dozen more - and they're all going to be cases of "what if" but for the injury or illness. It's tough enough to talk about what these guys did accomplish, especially those outside the majors, without getting into such discussions. Maybe the wartime guys get a little shortchanged, but I'm not convinced of that.

Besides, right now I've got a list of sixteen players who I'd vouch for, which is quite enough. This is especially true since none of them, not even Oh, has a snowball's chance in Hades of getting into Cooperstown any time soon. Heck, I'd rather get the issues of defense and park effects in NPB better nailed down before even thinking about this one - and I don't even have the data for either of those.

I think your premise is correct, but applying it accurately is most difficult. I think the short answer would have been that doing what you suggest really pushes the adjusted data beyond the level at which I am comfortable with the results.

Jim Albright

I suppose you could average the AL and NL scores, but that seems a little odd to me. Another issue I neglected to mention was my methods often result in a guy estimated as having 30.6 homers in a season and things like that. The rounding errors are diminished greatly by using a career mark only. I suppose you can say he hit 30.6 homers, but, again, it is wierd.

Jim Albright

Jim, I actually wrote a response last night, but a server error ate it.

The gist of what I said was that I didn't mean to try to do gray/black ink on your projections; rather to do them on the Japanese league data that we do have. That would give you an idea of where they were relative to their competition, and you can draw parallels to MLB'ers that way. Or you could project their best seasons, and compare them with the MLB of that season. Imperfect, yes, but it is another perspective.

On another point: you said that none of these guys, including Oh, has a realistic shot at the Hall anytime soon. I think that's very unfortunate, and the fact that you found 16 Cooperstown-worthy players strengthened the argument to honor NPB in Hall. Maybe it's not time to honor individual players, but I think it would be appropriate to recognize NPB as a whole.

Also, it's a controversial choice, but I'd like to see Eiji Sawamura in Cooperstown.

Happy Holidays.

I misunderstood your meaning about Black Ink/Gray Ink. I could possibly do Black Ink from the encyclopedia, but I'm not terribly interested in that. When it comes to Gray Ink, I have no confidence the results would be accurate for the guys finishing fifth or lower, as I don't have seasonal data collected for anywhere near all seasons for anybody who didn't qualify for the ERA or batting average titles.

It's very time consuming and I don't know that it would have the impact you apparently think it does. I would add that certain categories, especially for pitchers (BB/9 and K/9), have to be calculated, which is a pain. Further, saves were not kept for the longest time (until 1974). I did something kind of like that in my first attempt at a rating system (Greatness Points), and it was a pain to do.

For right now, I'll leave the NPB for HOF issue where it is, though I do believe that the NPB greats I mentioned deserve the honor. I further think doing so would be good for baseball and Cooperstown.

Jim Albright

- It's very time consuming and I don't know that it would have the impact you apparently think it does. I would add that certain categories, especially for pitchers (BB/9 and K/9), have to be calculated, which is a pain. Further, saves were not kept for the longest time (until 1974). I did something kind of like that in my first attempt at a rating system (Greatness Points), and it was a pain to do.

Fair enough. I don't know that looking at single season totals would have any "impact," but it would allow us to look at these players from a slightly different perspective. Baseball writers obviously consider a number of factors (records held, single season performances, contributions to the team) when voting for HOF candidates, so I thought it might make sense to look at some other factors that make these players Cooperstown-worthy, rather than aggregated career totals alone.

- For right now, I'll leave the NPB for HOF issue where it is, though I do believe that the NPB greats I mentioned deserve the honor. I further think doing so would be good for baseball and Cooperstown.

I'm in total agreement with you on that last point. I think Japanese baseball has done a lot for the game on the whole, and that the Hall of Fame would be a more interesting museum if it honored NPB as well as other international leagues. If MLB is so keen on having a World Cup, then they can also show some respect to the countries and leagues that got them to the point where they can have a World Cup.

PLNara wrote:

- Fair enough. I don't know that looking at single season totals would have any "impact," but it would allow us to look at these players from a slightly different perspective. Baseball writers obviously consider a number of factors (records held, single season performances, contributions to the team) when voting for HOF candidates, so I thought it might make sense to look at some other factors that make these players Cooperstown-worthy, rather than aggregated career totals alone.

Two points:

One, my other writings on the players I've mentioned as worthy of Cooperstown makes significant use of triple crown and slugging percentage finishes, and

Two, I think the more persuasive stuff in terms of Cooperstown is the major league equivalents because it puts things in context.

As I wrote in the Oh stuff, a guy in a local slow pitch softball league with Oh's stats can hit a little, but he's no HOFer - the context is critical. The similar seasons idea may work, but I can't come up with an approach other than that which a) I find to be a satisfactory use of the data, and b) which is not unduly time consuming.

Jim Albright

- One, my other writings on the players I've mentioned as worthy of Cooperstown makes significant use of triple crown and slugging percentage finishes,

Yeah, I liked your Greatness Points system because it made use of Best Nines and stuff like that. I didn't think of it before but what you've already done matches my idea to some extent.

and

- Two, I think the more persuasive stuff in terms of Cooperstown is the major league equivalents because it puts things in context.

As I wrote in the Oh stuff, a guy in a local slow pitch softball league with Oh's stats can hit a little, but he's no HOFer - the context is critical. The similar seasons idea may work, but I can't come up with an approach other than that which a) I find to be a satisfactory use of the data, and b) which is not unduly time consuming.

Again, looking at the peak seasons of some of the better candidates might lend a different perspective and strengthen the argument in favor of some of the players.

Despite our differences in opinion, you and I are in complete agreement that there are many NPB players that are worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown. The debate over who belongs in the Hall is probably the most compelling in baseball, if not all of sports, because it is totally subjective. I tend to prefer guys with high peaks over the typical 500-homer, 300-win milestone type guys. Nothing against Nolan Ryan, but I'd rather have Petro Martinez or Don Drysdale.

So anyway, my NPB Cooperstown picks would be:

Sadaharu Oh
Katsuya Nomura
Kazuhisa Inao
Eiji Sawamura

I'd go with the first three on performance alone; and Sawamura as a historical figure.

Of course, other guys, like Harimoto, Kaneda, and Starfin are worthy, but I'd vote for the four guys above first.

- Yeah, I liked your Greatness Points system because it made use of Best Nines and stuff like that. I didn't think of it before but what you've already done matches my idea to some extent.

I've abandoned the Greatness Points approach as less accurate than the current rating system, even if I corrected the errors I made in calculating Greatness Points. However, I certainly understand the importance of Avg., Slg., HR, and RBI for hitters, and wins, saves, winning percentage, and strikeouts for pitchers, and frequently referred to performances in those categories in writings using my newer rating approaches. I also made sure to note Best Nine and MVP awards as well.

I'm curious why you would leave out Nagashima when you say you are more influenced by peak performance. If I chose on pure peak performance, I'd take Nagashima over Nomura.

Jim Albright

- I'm curious why you would leave out Nagashima when you say you are more influenced by peak performance. If I chose on pure peak performance, I'd take Nagashima over Nomura.

I don't have a good answer for that. I guess a fair bit of it was based on ignorance, as I never really sat down and looked at Nagashima's yearly stats until I saw your post. I knew the big numbers, .300 lifetime BA, 400+ home runs, but never looked at the yearly stats. His overall numbers in his best years are in fact better than Nomura's, but Nomura played a tougher position. They were both great players, though.

The other part of my reason is that I just personally prefer the guys I mentioned. I spent my time in Japan in the Kansai region, and I have a little anti-Giants in me. I'm also from Chicago, and even though I grew up supporting the White Sox, I wouldn't want to see any third baseman enshrined in Cooperstown before Ron Santo. And that includes Wade Boggs.

Objective? Not at all. But I'm a fan, and those are my opinions. And you would never catch me saying that Nagashima shouldn't be a Hall of Famer. He had an absolutely tremendous career, and did a lot for the popularity of the game. I'd definitely vote for him, but I think I'd vote for the guys I listed first.

Fair enough. Fans are allowed subjective biases - only those playing the role of analysts like myself aren't - and then only when we're in that mode. It is best if you realize where the objective ends and the subjective begins, though.

Jim Albright

Sawamura wouldn't make it under Cooperstown's rules even if we assumed his NPB career should be treated the same as if he had performed in the majors. Given the problems in getting other, far less controversial candidates in is enough to keep me from endorsing such as idea. Further, my whole riff on Nakanishi applies with equal weight to Sawamura (i.e. I've got little room for that kind of what if). I am suspicious his arm was close to being toast by his final NPB season, and when we add to that problem the fact the only way around the ten year requirement has to be to argue for his service to Japan in a war waged against the US - I can't see how to sell such an argument for a couple of more generations.

I don't want anyone to misunderstand - I'm all for lettting the past be in the past and to focus on improving relations between the US and Japan. On the other hand, the Hall's constituency is going to be primarily US citizens for the forseeable future, and there are still significant numbers of US citizens who lost family members in the Pacific in WWII. You can bet some of them would take offense at Sawamura's getting in because he died in WWII on the other side. That would likely lead to protests and a nasty airing of long ago dirty laundry which certainly wouldn't be to the benefit of the Hall.

I have my doubts about Sawamura's candidacy for Cooperstown at any time, but until passions over WWII have the time to become as dispassionately viewed as the US Civil War, the War of 1812, or the American Revolution are today, I think it would be best if Cooperstown left Sawamura out of consideration.

Jim Albright

Yes, Sawamura is obviously too contraversial for the Hall at this point, and it's highly unlikely that he'll ever get in. It wasn't that long ago that the HoF cancelled a Bull Durham reunion because of anti-war comments made by Tim Robbins and/or Susan Sarandon.

But I would still put him fourth for inclusion, in some form, mainly for his performance against the big league all stars. Cooperstown is filled with relics from amazing one-game performances, and I think his career in general qualifies. Sawamura's involvement in the war is probably left better as a poigiant (sic) touch, to remind us all of the realities of war, and the parallels between Japanese and American culture.

I know it's a contraversial choice, but Sawamura has his place in world baseball history. I think it should be recognized in Cooperstown.

If you want to argue for him in the "pioneer" category, go ahead. That's probably his best shot. I won't be joining that particular effort, though.

Jim Albright

PLNara wrote:

- Or you could project their best seasons, and compare them with the MLB of that season. Imperfect, yes, but it is another perspective.

Maybe for the batters this one will work once I get the necessary query set up in Access or MySQL. I'll see when I get that far.

Jim Albright