Where Have All the Homers Gone?

As of June 2nd, the Seibu Lions could claim slim leads in two of the
most coveted statistics in Japanese baseball.  Seibu stood atop all
twelve Japanese pro teams in turns of both winning percentage and batting
average.

Winning percentage, of course, is what it is all about.  For with
Seibu's slick .605 clip also comes sole possession of first place in the
Pacific League, giving the team cushions of one and two games, respectively,
over rivals Orix and Daiei.  If the Lions can keep winning at this
pace, a return to the Japan Series seems almost guaranteed.  .605
being a hard number to beat.

That .605, however, will surely dip lower if Seibu fails to keep up
the hot hitting.  While the team's .266 is not so gaudy and only .001
ahead of both the Blue Wave and the Hawks, it still remains a steep improvement
over last year -- when for several stretches the Lions were the worst hitting
team in the nation.  A .266 mark in 1999 might have well made Seibu
the Japan Series champs instead of Daiei.

Yet, even as the top hitting team in the country, Seibu batsmanship
still leaves something to be desired.  That something being power.

Through 44 games, the Lions have belted but 30 homers, by far the fewest
in the Pacific League and not far ahead of Central League trailers Chunichi
(26) and Yakult (29), neither of whom have the benefit of a DH.  At
this rate, Seibu will end the year with well under 100 homers, a far cry
from ten years ago when the heart of the Lion order -- Koji Akiyama, Orestes
Destrade and Kazuhiro Kiyohara -- would reached that level all by themselves.

Seibu's search for a power hitter has been well documented ever since
releasing current Giants slugger Domingo Martinez, two years ago. 
This years' imports, Tony Fernandez and Reggie Jefferson, were supposed
to be the solution, along with a rejuvenated effort from infielder Ken
Suzuki and more punch from up-and-coming star Taisei Takagi.  But
so far this power combination has failed to jell.

Fernandez has done his part.  Never a long ball hitter, even in
the States, the 37 year old former US all-star, is tied for the team lead
with five clouts, while hitting a sharp .329.  This includes a seven
game stretch where the Dominican went hitless and saw his average plummet
seventy eight points.  Fernandez supposedly broke from this slump
with a new loosening up regimen which involves swinging a baby sledge hammer
that he found left by the grounds crew.

If that's the magic, then Jefferson, Suzuki and Takagi should all give
the sledge a try.

Jefferson, at 190 centimeters and 100 kilos, is a moose.  But he
has yet to figure out Japanese pitching and has but 3 homers to go with
his .220 BA.  If he doesn't produce soon, he may find himself down
on the farm, replaced by Seibu's other foreign slugger, Corey Paul. Paul
hits for an average just as dreary, but has proven to be much more regular
with the long ball.

Suzuki is hitting well, yet has managed to go downtown only twice. 
On top of this, All-Star Takagi has contributed but three round trippers
more -- to go with lowly .185  plate production.  He is certainly
the most disappointing Lion this season.

Others?  Tetsuya Kakiuchi started the season with a power boom
that woke up echoes of his 1996 form, when he cracked 28 round trippers. 
Now, however, only those echoes remains.  Kakiuchi had three home
runs in the first month -- and still has three home runs as of June 2nd.

Sharing team lead with Fernandez is all-pro shortstop Kazuo Matsui.
Matsui is also hitting .333, in his comfortable position as league runner-up
to Orix's Ichiro.  Yet, both Matsui and Fernandez are plate setters
-- clever singles hitters, who have just enough pop and more than enough
skill to take fat pitches out of the ball park.  That the two of them
have combined for a third of Seibu's homers will end up as humorous only
if the Lions win the pennant.

Yet, in this home run drought there has been one saving grace. 
The Lions don't crank the ball much, but neither do they strike out.

Often hitting back-to-back-to-back, Matsui, Fernandez and Suzuki have
but 42 strike outs between the three of them.  Meanwhile, more than
a dozen sluggers in Japanese ball have 35 whiffs or more all by themselves. 
Even the slump-ridden Takagi has fanned only 22 times all year.

Good pitching, timely hitting and keeping the ball in play -- that's
the formula that has led to a .605 winning percentage.

Will it be enough?

Right now, with Seibu on top, it is hard to argue otherwise.

Yet, a .605 percentage with a fence-buster or two in the line-up would
somehow look a lot more convincing.