Hanshin Tigers 2011 Preview

Welcome back everyone, with the start of Spring training it's time to look at Tigers chances for the upcoming season. Previous experience has taught us that Tigers lack the mental strength to hold and win a pennant and to prosper in the post-season. In fact the last time they could have said to have not choked was 2003 (where they did lose the Japan series but on home advantage). Otherwise under the Hanshin old boys no matter what the talent they choke (2005 Japan Series, 2008 Pennant race and post-season and 2010 Pennant race and post-season). Clearly neither Okada (even though he did deliver a pennant) nor Mayumi could be said to have the ability to guide a team through the tough challenges. So we have an enormously talented team with a very limited head and this is the problem for Tigers if they wish to win. The team needs to find a way to bypass its management ineffectuality and generate its own steel. This will be the big challenge for the players in 2011.

Trades and Free Agents
Most of Tigers foreigners will be back after successful seasons; the only failure being Casey Fossum. As a result Tigers have only added to their development squad from overseas. Two players Zarate and Vechionacci were signed. Tigers coaches seem to think that they have potential but as one signing (Zarate) was influenced by other clubs we shall have to wait and see. Within the Japanese market Tigers have signed three players of which two could be said to be questionable. Kato was signed from BayStars primarily because he is a left hander not because he is a talented pitcher - his numbers are very uninspiring. A waste of money is the likely conclusion of this adventure and really an avoidance of the problem. Tigers main left handed reliever Egusa does not get on with Johjima and rather than attempt to tackle this issue Tigers management have ducked it. The other questionable signing is that of Fujii as a backup catcher to Johjima. He could not even hold a place as Rakuten's regular catcher so one cannot see him doing well for Tigers. More money down the drain. Tigers did something similar with Noguchi who left to join BayStars and disappeared without trace. Lessons do not seem to be learned and the likely reason for signing Fujii was that Mayumi knew him at Kintetsu. Tigers already have a potential replacement in Kanoh but the management wants to convert him to an outfielder. To his credit Kanoh has said he intends to try and force his way back into the first team as a catcher. He has the support of Fujikawa but the management is nothing if not stone headed. The third signing that of the Lotte reliever Kobayashi is a very good one. He will add strength to the bullpen and it is intended that he pitches between Kubota and Fujikawa with the occasional closing duty. Kobayashi had intended to go to MLB but wanted a full contract not a minors or split contract which were all he was offered. Tigers pursued him and won him over - this was very good work by the front office. The final new player came through a trade - Arai's brother Ryota. Jim Allen reckons that this is a very good trade and certainly Tigers have done well in their trades (Kubo and Hirano spring to mind). Jim sees Ryota Arai has a potential No. 4 in a few years which would be useful in the extreme. However, we must also take a look at the player who Tigers should have picked up instead of a washed out catcher, Uchikawa. A consistent hitter and run producer he would have fitted in well in right field and as a potential left fielder to replace Kanemoto. Tigers did nothing to pursue him and really blew a chance here. On the free agent front though everything is redeemed by the signing of Kobayashi but even here there is a cloud. The management is still dithering over their protected list as Lotte can claim a player in compensation. This shouldn't be such a problem as it seems to be.

Batting
Tigers are a strong batting side with a lot of talent and a good coaching team. Brazell and Murton are back and even if neither hits as well as 2010 they will contribute a lot. Arai is a fine No. 4 and we also have Toritani and Johjima to drive in runs. Admittedly it looks like Tigers will be without Johjima for the early part of the season as he recovers from injury but the others should generate enough runs. We also have Hirano who should continue to hit well but maybe not as much as 2010 when he hit .350. Fujii will not add much to Tigers batting if he starts as catcher so one hopes that Kanoh will get his wish. The big problem is going to be Kanemoto - will he be fit again. If not he has indicated this would be his last season but if so he can add a lot of runs to the side. Other players who can contribute are Lin and Sakurai both of whom have power. Pinch hitting will be led by Hiyama (though can anyone tell me why the management felt it necessary to reduce his salary after his excellent 2010 season) with back up from Sekimoto. Other players that Mayumi will try to bring in will include Shunsuke, Saka and Yamato though none of these can be said to be hitting machines. We can also expect to see a lot of whoever is Mayumi's current favourite as well irrespective of whether the chosen one is actually a benefit to the lineup. It is unlikely that the offense will hit as well as 2010 but expect them to hit well and frequently. Mayumi though needs to abandon his playing around with the lineup though - getting people to hit is his forte not deciding the order in which they hit.

Pitching
Pitching was the big problem for Tigers in 2010 with some pitchers failing and others being injured. Both Iwata and Nohmi should be fully fit and this is important as their pitching will be the key. With Kubo and Standridge they will form a core of a very good rotation. Messenger should also seize the chance and his pitching last year showed he had the potential to pitch extremely well but needed to develop consistency. Akiyama should also return as will Shimoyanagi. The latter though is in his dotage and one doesn't expect him to pitch the entire season. He has been a great servant for Tigers but age is catching up with him. Other pitchers who could make the rotation are Andoh: who has been abysmal of late but could bounce back; Uezono: who needs to show that he can become the pitcher of his rookie year again; Kojima: has the potential but needs to release it and Tsuru. We could also see one or two of the rookies making the rotation Tagami, Hifume or Enokida spring to mind but this will depend on fitness and ni-gun performances. The relief will again be key but with Kobayashi it has considerably more depth. Egusa is the question mark though - will he be able to pitch at his best? Neither Kawasaki nor Kato are anywhere near as good as Egusa at his best and the less said about Kato the better. Tsutsui, Watanabe and Nishimura will form the core of the second line relief but I would like to see Abe and Ishikawa used a lot as well. One thing that Tigers need to ensure is no role for either Fukuhara or Sugiyama. Both pitchers are not effective.
The big challenge will be for the tactically challenged Mayumi to handle the pitching changes effectively and sensibly. Whilst the batting coaching is superb, the pitching coaching is mediocre and Mayumi doesn't demonstrate much knowledge of when and how to switch pitchers. His handling of the pitching frequently betrays panic and a lack of knowledge of the situation on the mound. Coupled with a punishment regime that is over harsh it is no surprise that his pitchers do not respond to him. The big surprise of 2010 was how well they performed under this management and one must conclude that this is a very talented lineup.

Prospects
Tigers did finish second last year and only one game separated them from the Dragons but they never looked like overhauling the eventual pennant winners once they lost the lead. Furthermore, they only retained second place because the Giants lost their last game not because the Giants couldn't have caught up. Like 2008 the team lacked the mental strength to hold onto the lead and fight off their challengers even though they were the better batting side. With a strengthened rotation Tigers should be even better placed to win the pennant but the important thing is ensuring that the pitching remains strong and healthy and motivated. If the catching is up to standard (ie Kanoh and Johjima) and Fujii doesn't start Tigers can take the pennant this year. I am not so confident if Fujii starts. For the post season Tigers do need to find a formula which allows them to win and progress. Their playoff performance has been totally dismal with only one victory. If anything exposes the bankruptcy of the policy of choosing old boys to manage the team it is this statistic. So a pennant is possible but for anything else don't hold your breath.