Hawks Assessment At the Break

What started as a promising season for the SoftBank Hawks is turning into what seems like a repeat of last year. Last year the Hawks couldn't hit, evidenced by the career-worst season from Nobuhiko Matsunaka. Without him, the Hawks couldn't put two and two together offensively, save for Munenori Kawasaki, and he was injured himself. This year, the team has been similarly snake-bitten, but in the most important aspect of the game: pitching.

Injuries have reared their ugly head again this season, but the team has been hit harder this year because pitchers were the primary victims this year. Super closer Takehiro Mahara was out until last week with shoulder pain, Tsuyoshi Wada had surgery on his left (throwing) elbow, and ace Kazumi Saitoh is out indefinitely with surgery on his rotator cuff. Relievers Fujioka and Shinohara have missed time with injuries of their own. All in all, the Hawks are not a healthy club.
Position players are not immune, either. A nagging hip injury has slowed OF Naoyuki Ohmura, 2B Yuichi Honda has gotten hurt himself, and the entire Opening Day outfield of Shotaro Ide, Hitoshi Tamura, and Hiroshi Shibahara are all out with injuries of their own.

So what could possibly be good news out of all this? Well, if the season were to end today, the Hawks would be in the playoffs again. Matsunaka has had a resurgence offensively, as he is batting over .300 with 21 home runs. Thanks to the added protection from Matsunaka, 1B Hiroki Kokubo is also hitting well, with 18 home runs on his end, as well. The rest of the lineup, aside from Munerin, has been wildly inconsistent. Call-ups do well for about a week, then can't hit the broad side of a barn. Case in point: Arakane, Takaya, Matoyama. All three of them hit well in their first week or so, now they can't hit the broad side of the moon.

Part of the problem is the patchwork outfield that the Hawks have been forced to go with. The practically injury-guaranteed CF Tamura fractured his fibula, and he has been out since May (my fault there, I jinxed him), promising young RF Ide sprained his ankle and has been out about the same time as Tamura, and LF Shibahara, who was well on his way to a career year, has been rehabbing a bad back.

What's worse, players called up from ni-gun are promptly sent back down because they either get hurt or can't cut the meat. The Hawks have even asked the old dog Matsunaka to learn a new trick and play left. If I had my druthers, I would like to have the offense in the outfield in Tsuji, Arakane, and Nakanishi, while keeping Matsunaka at DH. Tsuji and Nakanishi have hit well, and Tsuji runs extremely well. However, one can't deny Hasegawa's glove out there in the deep confines of the Yahoo! Dome.

In terms of rookies, there has been one bright spot: rookie reliever Yuki Kume. He started the season very well, and has been the only one to keep it up, even though he's in the top 10 in appearances in the Pacific League. Kume has been overused though, and seems to only be effective for less than an inning now. Blame that, however, on the lack of consistency and the lack of a true closer in the bullpen, something that has been sorely lacking this season.

Many relievers have been used in the closer's role. First was DJ Houlton, and while he was good for a little while (he did get 9 saves), he imploded and lost his confidence as a reliever. There is a happy ending to this story, though: Houlton has been effective as a starter, especially in the absence of Japan veteran Rick Guttormson.

CJ Nitkowski was tried in the closer's role, despite never having closed in his career, and he had his struggles, leading to a stint at ni-gun. Akihiro Yanase was also tried in the closer's role, and while he wasn't automatic, he did get the job done when the club needed him. Other men in the bullpen have been inconsistent as well. Nitkowski, Yanase, Shinsuke Ogura, and Koji Mise have all had struggles and have had stints at ni-gun at some point or another, but all have also shown flashes of brilliance.

Starting pitching has been almost as patchwork as the outfield, with the only constant being ace starter Toshiya Sugiuchi. He was stellar last year in Saitoh's absence, and as the ace this year, he has been even better. He is eating innings for lunch, and is also effective with his pitches, leading to less pitches needed out of him than say Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka. Tsuyoshi Wada has been inconsistent this season, but when he's good, it's hard to find somebody better. After Wada is young lefty Kenji Ohtonari, and he has been as good as one would like to see out of a rookie. Sure he has hit his bumps in the road, but if he finds the strike zone and attacks it, he is almost unhittable, as evidenced by his 16 straight retired batters last week against Lotte.

However, after Ohtonari it turns into a “pray for rain” situation. Houlton has been somewhat solid, settling back into a starter's role which he had with the Los Angeles Dodgers' farm system, but the 5th and 6th starters have been a disaster. Touted offseason signee Jeremy Powell has been nothing short of awful against everybody except Orix, with a 1-5 record overall.

Sixth starter duties have been handed around between Guttormson, who has been nagged by injuries so far this season, the latest of which being an inflamed adductor muscle, #1 2008 high school draft pick Sho Iwasaki, Korean call-up Yan Yao-Shun, the grinder Hideaki Takahashi, and “Golden Rookie” Shota Ohba.

Ohba has shown flashes of brilliance, but ever since his 16-strikeout gem against Lotte in April, he has been awful. Rarely does Ohba get out of the 4th inning unscathed, and since the 16-strikeout game, he has only made it out of the 5th inning once. He has been good at ni-gun, but he is hardly the Saitoh doppleganger that some thought he would be.

So what to do about the pitching deficiency? Well, first the bad news: the Hawks are losing Sugiuchi and Wada for the Olympics. The good news is that there is an option aside from the youngsters at ni-gun: anyone remember Nagisa Arakaki and Jason Standridge? These two are hardly Sugiuchi and Wada, but since nobody's really seen them this season, they could be serviceable in one or two starts while Sugiuchi and Wada are in Beijing. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have those two get lit up than have the youngsters have irreparable mental damage done if they get shelled.

We are well past the halfway mark of the season, and in my last team report, I think I graded SoftBank far too generously. The offense sure picked up, but the bullpen has been an adventure. However, with the return of Mahara, that already makes the bullpen better by a factor of about 10,000. I could not count (nor care to remember) how many games were lost because the team did not have Mahara at the back end of the bullpen.

Now that the Hawks have him back, expect more close games to be won than lost. However, now the issue becomes, “Who is the bridge to Mahara in the 9th?” More men are coming back to bring more of a veteran presence to the bullpen that has been sorely lacking. Shinohara returned from injury, and hopefully Fujioka comes back soon because he was effective before getting hurt.

Mid-Season Grades

Offense: B-
Inconsistency and absence of clutch hitting in some situations knock this grade down, but some of it can be forgiven because of the patchwork outfield, which is also a major component of the offense. Matsunaka is back, and Kokubo continues to prove that he's not done yet. Kawasaki and Honda also deliver speed and pop at the top of the order. If Ide, Shibahara, and Tamura all come back, watch out.

Starting Pitching: B
Sugiuchi, Wada, and Ohtonari have been very good, and hopefully Houlton is able to give 6 solid innings at a whack. However, Powell needs to be banished to ni-gun for a good long time, and somebody has to step up as the 6th starter. I still hold out hope for Ohba, but it's a slim hope. Arakaki deserves another chance, especially during the upcoming Olympic period.

Bullpen: D+
The unit simply cannot hold games. No matter who Oh-kantoku trots out there, it's completely unpredictable as to who will be good when. The lack of a veteran presence hurts big time, but the return of Mahara and Shinohara will undoubtedly help. Once again, consistency is the buzzword, and while everybody is capable of a bad day, this unit seems to have more than its fair share. Somebody else needs to help Shinohara as the set-up man down the road.

Intangibles: C-
As I've stated many times this season, the Hawks simply need moxie. They've shown it, but they don't seem to have enough of it. This is a team we know has heart, they showed it at the beginning of the season, but they've gone soft. Again, I'm calling for an emotional leader to step up.

With about a quarter of the season left, and the Hawks opening up the stretch run against the hard-charging Orix Buffaloes--a team that has killed them this year--the team has to get its act together. The bullpen simply has to be better, and the key players have to stay healthy.

My prediction has changed: The SoftBank Hawks will once again finish 3rd to make the playoffs, but suffer another first-round exit, this time at the hands of the Saitama Seibu Lions.