A Triple Crown for Godzilla?

The kid who joined Japanese baseball's best known team as a 19
year old who they called Godzilla has largely lived up to those
monster expectations during his seven years in the Central League.
He has been named to the Best Nine team five years running, amassing
a career average of .293 with 204 homers and 570 RBIs. The ball
literally seems to explode off of his bat. He has also been very
durable, playing in every game the Giants have been involved in
for the last six years as well as the current season.

That kid's name is Hideki Matsui and at 26 is perhaps reaching
his prime. Not being satisfied with the stats recited above or the
huge numbers he put up in 1999, when he rocketed 42 homers into the
seats, Matsui made some minor but important changes to his batting grip and his approach at the plate during the spring and now it is all paying off in a big way for the slugging centerfielder, leading to a chance at becoming the first Triple Crown winner in the Central League since Randy Bass of the Hanshin Tigers in 1986. What I would like to do here is assess Matsui's chances of reaching that historic milestone and discuss those who are seeking to deprive Matsui of that
accomplishment by beating him in the race for the batting championship.

As this is being written, Matsui is leading the Central League
in hitting (.352), homers (22), and RBIs (56). In addition to those
feats, he is also first in total bases, walks, slugging percentage,
and on base percentage, second in doubles and third in hits. And he
has not hit into any double plays so far, which is remarkable. By any
measure, he is THE dominant player in pro yakyu this year.

But to pull off a Triple Crown, there generally have been some
basic criteria: one must hit at least .350, with 42 homers, as seven
of the ten Triple Crown winners have done. And six of that club have
had a minimum of 110 RBIs. Now these would be good marks for any major
leaguer in a 162 game year, but to meet the goal these marks must be
reached within 135 games.

Generally, when a power hitter, especially a pull hitter like
Matsui, starts hitting .350, it's because he's started hitting to all
fields. A good example of that this year has been Carlos Delgado of
the Toronto Blue Jays. But the lefthanded hitting Matsui has directed
almost half of his hits to right, another 20 to center and only 13
to left. He has just one homer to left while 15 have exited to the
right.

Thus, what is allowing Matsui to make this run is his being more selective at the plate. Twice he has had years of 100 strikeouts and 100 walks. Halfway through 2000, he has 60 walks while fanning only 42 times in just short of 300 plate appearances, a roughly 14% clip compared to his career tendency of around 20%, a reduction of a full third. His career low for whiffs in a season is 84 and he may tie
that.

Further marking Matsui's maturity as a hitter is that he is
abusing BOTH lefthanded and righthanded pitchers to the tune of around .350. His closest competition in the batting average race, Chunichi
first baseman Takeshi Yamazaki, has hit right around .340 against both
kinds of throwers while third place Bobby Rose, who only strikes out
in nine percent of his at bats, kills righthanders (.355), but doesn't
do nearly as well against southpaws (.305). Rose was last year's
batting champ with a .369 average for the Yokohama Bay Stars.

Matsui has been sharp in the clutch, too, raking in the RBIs
with a .346 average with men in scoring position and .362 with men
on any base. He's not shabby starting something either, banging out
a .338 mark when the basepaths are vacant.

By contrast, Rose hits .333 with teammates on second and/or
third, while with men on in general he performs at a .301 level
but is strongest when nobody is on (.365). Yamazaki is rather poor
when his fellow Dragons want to be driven in, sporting a lowly .245
in those situations. His main success is with nobody on, where he
suddenly becomes Ted Williams (.382). And with anybody on anywhere on
the basepaths, he bats .300

The thing about Yamazaki is that he had been mainly a power hitter. He's a .268 career hitter whose best campaign was in 1996, when he hit .322, whacked 39 longballs and drove in 107 runs. He hit 27 and 28 homers respectively in 1998 and 1999. This season, his power numbers are down with nine homers, but he does have 16 doubles, 3 triples and 35 RBIs. Nevertheless, while there has been a huge improvement in his average, it has come at the expense of his power.
Ultimately, he may fade from the batting race as the year wears on and the Dragons ask him to hit more homers in an attempt to catch the
Giants.

Right now, Matsui's teammates Domingo Martinez and Akira Etoh are vying with him for the home run and RBI titles, but given Etoh's
inconsistency and Martinez' marginally higher strikeout rate and
lower average with men in scoring position, I believe that Matsui will
pull away at the end of the day.

So what it will come down to in Matsui's Triple Crown bid is how him, Rose, and Yamazaki hit against the rest of the league in the
remaining games on trhe schedule. Here is a breakdown based on the
year so far:

Hanshin:

YAMAZAKI: Is hitting .320 against the Tigers. Owns Hoshino (.444), but has trouble against Yufune (.200). Has yet to face Yabu, one of the club's best pitchers. Has hit 4 doubles, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, 4 BB with
three strikeouts.




ROSE: Eats Nomura's crew alive with a .441 average to date,
accumulating five homers, 12 RBIs, nine walks and a might .883 slugging percentage. Like Yamazaki, has yet to stand in against Yabu.




MATSUI: Does fairly well at .313, walking eleven times while
socking two homers and four doubles, and driving in nine runs. The
downside here is that Yabu (.235) and Fukuhara (.200) eat Matsui's
lunch though he's had some luck against Hoshino (2-5, .400).

Hiroshima:

YAMAZAKI: His worst enemy at the plate, the Carp have contained
Yamazaki to a .260 average. Takahashi is a total mystery to him
(.166) even as he gleefully stands in and knocks Sasaoka around (.600). Has been punched out on strikes 11 times in 50 official
at bats, but has a homer, three doubles and seven walks against
them.




ROSE: This member of the "Machine Gun Offense" is a real pistol
against the fish, .357. Is absolute poison to anyone on the pitching
staff save Kuroda (.250). One homer, nine RBIs, eight bases on balls
and a like number of K's.




MATSUI: Hiroshima is basically there to suit Matsui's pleasure, as
he has decimated everything coming from the mound there for a .486
average. 18-37 with 12 walks, six strikeouts, six doubles, and three
homers.

Yakult:

YAMAZAKI: He is seeing a lot of "amai booru" (fat pitches) from
Jason Jacome (.571 in seven at bats) among others for a .390 average
(16-41), but has still struck out 10 times in 45 total plate with
four walks.




ROSE: Kawasaki may as well just put the ball on a tee for Rose, but
Takagi has kept him down to .200. His overall average against the
Swallows is .333 on 13-39 with 10 walks , two homers, six RBIs and
has yet to strikeout against any Swallows' hurler.




MATSUI: Has some trouble against the Jingu dwellers, as he has only
produced a .268 average against them. He nails both Kazuhisa Ishii
(.428) and Kawasaki (.333), but not much else. Altogether, four
homers, one double, 11 walks and six strikeouts and has been hit once.

Chunichi:

ROSE: Does not hit these guys at all, managing a dreadful .230
(9-39) against them, with seven strikeouts, no homers, three RBIs and
a double.




MATSUI: Dines regularly on Dragon pitching, chewing them up right
proper for a .418 average, accompanied by seven homers, 13 RBIs, and 20 runs scored. Is using Kawakami and Bunch for batting practice,
running up a .500 average against each. Takeda, though, has kept
Godzilla from totally devouring Nagoya (.200).

Yokohama:

YAMAZAKI: Must want to pay off league schedulers to face these
guys as often as possible, since he's hitting .468 against them.
In nine at bats against Kawamura, is dialing the Orange County,
California area code (.714) and Saitoh has faired only a little
better (.600).




MATSUI: One man's meat is another man's poison here, as Matsui
does not grok Kawamura (.200) or Komiyama (.181) on his way to hitting
.288 against the Bay Stars. Has had to depend on loading up on Saitoh
(.500) to make his efforts look respectable.

Yomiuri:

YAMAZAKI: Has put up a respectable .307 average. While he has had no problems handling May, the fine rookie Takahashi, and is 1-3 against closer Makihara, it's tough sledding against Uehara, Kudoh and Kuwata, against whom he has one hit combined. Totals: one homer and four doubles.




ROSE: Does okay against the best rotation in the league, coming in
with a .298 average so far. Kuwata owns Rose (.142), but he does much
better against Uehara (.333) and Kudoh (.307). Total damage: one
homer, four RBIs and seven walks.

Given all of the above, I think the race with Rose will be
close, but since the former Angel second baseman has to face the best
pitching staff in the league in the Giants and has had trouble
figuring out what's coming off the hill in Nagoya, as long as Matsui
can maintain his plate discipline there is definitely a possibility
that he can win the Triple Crown, especially if the rest of the
team can score more consistently and he starts seeing more of
the opposition's second line pitchers.