NPB Reform and Change

All that I've seen from the English press about the Baseball World Classic (as pointed out by you readers, since I don't pay any attention to the English press for the most part) has been the money division issue. However, Shukan Baseball and Nikkan Sports have published some very good arguements by the Japan Professional Baseball Players Association that contain different objections.

First of all, along with the Owners' objections, is the fact that the structure is geared toward MLB. The International Baseball Association Federation (IBA IBAF) already holds a baseball World Cup every other year (I think - there is no set schedule) in which Japan participates. Its structure puts MLB, NPB, KBO, CPBL, etc. all on the same level for decision making. The World Baseball Classic structure, on the other hand, puts MLB at the top. While input from other leagues is welcome, it is only at the will of MLB that anything will be decided. The other leagues are seen as participants in the event, but MLB is putting it on. With the IBA IBAF, all participants are equal. With the Classic, all serve MLB.

The other arguement that the JPBPA makes is that the Classic should be held in November, not March. By having the Classic in March, this is great PR for MLB, but detrimental to opening day for other countries' leagues. Experience with the 2002 Soccer World Cup (jointly hosted by Japan) saw popularity for Bekham (sp?) and foreign leagues increase much to the detriment of J-League. With Japanese MLBers being highlighted in the Classic, MLB's marketeers will be further encroaching on NPB's turf.

After the Classic marketing blitz, what can the Asian leagues do to attract people to Opening Day a week later? You can only build up the tension to a point (build up for the Classic), then release and start building up slowly again. There isn't enough time between the Classic and Opening Day to do that. That's what Spring training and open-sen (pre-season games) are for.

If the Classic were to be held in November, the regular season build up during Spring will advance as normal, there will be a dip after Opening Day, and then the build up to the Nippon Series (Korea Series, etc.), the Asian Series, to be topped off by the Baseball Classic. It's a natural progression getting higher and higher. (It should be topped off by a true "World Series," but that's a different arguement.)

A March Classic will benefit MLB and nobody else. A November Classic would allow for each league to get something out of the build up to it.

That is why Japan (and others) are balking at the Classic.

[Factual corrections by: westbaystars on Jun 29, 2005 9:09 AM JST]

The Japan Times today contains an interesting article suggesting that the World Baseball Classic should be held in the summer. The rationale is that if the Olympics loses baseball (as seems possible) the international tournament for baseball will clash with the football [soccer] season in a lot of countries. A summer tournament would avoid this.

I am not convinced by either the March or November time period, but also remain unconvinced by a summer tournament. If I had to chose, I would prefer a November classic for the reasons mentioned by WestbayStars, but do not see any advantage for NPB in taking part at present. It strikes me as a novel way for MLB to try and cut scouting costs by getting the best Japanese talent over to have a look at. Any world championship should be under the auspices of a genuine world governing body not an organisation as parochial as MLB.

- First of all, along with the Owners' objections, is the fact that the structure is geared toward MLB.

I agree, that all money generated should be distrubted evenly. Also, there should be equal representation on the WBC committee. This Classic should be one where all sides in it have the same decision making, not where one side has more power. Though as we know with business aspects, it sadly never seems to happen.

- The other arguement that the JPBPA makes is that the Classic should be held in November, not March.

The timeframe of this series is one that's very tough. A lot of teams aren't going to want to send players after November, because of the threats of injuries. If the touranment was held in March, it would cut away from spring training. If held in the Summer it would take away players from teams or the season would be stopped for a certain time.

Though, I see November as the best time. November is a better time because there would be some kind of competitive edge to the Classic, and something to prove for it. As for having the Classic in November it would have a true meaning, as the world's baseball leagues would go on to play in a true world championship.

Instead, having in it March it would look more like an exhibition series (with no meaning at all). Also, having in it March will cut into spring training for the players that don't play in the Classic, leaving for an unprepared season.

Finally, at the present point the World Baseball Classic is dealing too much at the time with business, un-even distribution of cash, and unequal representation which can and might make it a failure, before it even gets off the ground. To make the World Baseball Classic a success, all sides need to have the same decision making power, not be put at the mercy of a majority.

Major League Baseball has always strived to maintain a position of economic control and at least an appearance of superiority over any other baseball entities.

In the 19th century, the National League refused to recognize other leagues as Major League caliber, including the original American Association. The American League was founded in 1901, but not deemed of equal status with the NL until 1903 with the first World Series.

The Negro leagues and players were considered below ML caliber until Jackie Robinson and Branch Rickey broke the "Color Barrier" in 1947. Latin and more recently Asian players were generally overlooked.

MLB's historic position is that they have a lot to lose from an economic and image standpoint if their control in the "boardrooms, pocketbook, and on the field" is shared with any other baseball organizations.

I am informed by an NPB advisor that one of the concerns is the possibility of the Japanese entry losing in an early round of the WBC. The NPB image has taken somewhat of a battering over the past few years, with the defections of so many stars and the big drop in Yomiuri TV ratings. Being eliminated out of the gate would have a further adverse effect on the reputation of puro-yakyu in Japan, especially if Giants players were involved in that defeat. It would not bode well for opening day NTV viewership.

I know there's a lot going on here behind the scenes, but I wonder if the loss to the Australians in the recent Olympics has created a "chicken factor?"

This is a possibility, though I would have thought that the players available this time really would represent the cream of Japanese baseball and any potential NPB team would be much stronger.

The reports that NPB is suffering, though, are exaggerated. There is an erroneous belief among some commentators that most of the best players in Japan have moved to the U.S. This is definitely not the case, and whilst the Japanese players in the U.S. are some of the best, they are not all of the best.

Likewise, the drop in the Yomiuri ratings is not such a major factor for anyone but the Giants. What is happening is that clubs are developing regional identities and regional loyalties (Hawks in Fukuoka, Eagles in Sendai, Dragons in Nagoya, Tigers in Kansai, Fighters in Hokkaido). Inter-league games have proven to be enormously popular and a great success. The Giants are not all of Japanese baseball and never have been, despite the hype.

Losing to Australia, though, was a great embarrassment for the Japanese team. But it was not a good team and did not play well. I think other factors such as the structure and timing of the tournament are much more of a factor in this case.

Which commentators say that? Just curious.

And I beg to differ with you about the Giants. They were the be-all and end-all of Japaense baseball for a very good part of the past 50 years, especially in the 1960's and 70's. Not even the Hanshin Tigers drew well in that era 5,000-10,000 for a Tigers-Whales game at Koshien was par for the course.

Granted, regional identities are stronger now than a couple of decades ago, and that's a great thing, but if you think that Watanabe and the Giants are no longer influential then you haven't tried to deal with the Commissioner's Office lately. It's quite clear who is pulling the string. If Watanabe does not want the WBC to happen, then I'd wager that it won't.

I was expressing my own opinions, but the factors I mentioned have also been aired by the sports dailies, owners, and players associations.

The Giants in the 1960s and '70s had a superb team; easily the best team in Japanese baseball. A winning team attracts support, especially when it has a monopoly on TV rights. However, and this is a common misunderstanding about sports - it is not one team that makes the sport but the rivalries between teams that is important. The Giants needed their rivalry with the Tigers to drive them on. As a result they were able to build a supreme team.

I never said that Watanabe is not still influential, but this is fading. Watanabe wanted a single league - this didn't happen. Watanabe didn't want inter-league games - these happened. If the other owners want the WBC and if the players association agrees, Watanabe will have to go along with it no matter what his opinion. The days when Watanabe could just tell everyone what to do went last year when the Tigers blocked the single league. It is still too soon to say whether the events of last year broke the Giants' power entirely, but they certainly reduced it enormously.

- And I beg to differ with you about the Giants. They were the be-all and end-all of Japaense baseball for a very good part of the past 50 years, especially in the 1960's and 70's.

Though in today's day and age, Yomiuri has done little to make their image look postive, little in terms of overall team performance, and still seem to think that the rules of the entire NPB don't apply to them.

Secondly, the strike last year has really hurt Yomiuri. As we remember, Watanabe tried to push through an one-league idea, it failed. He then quit to save his face after the Ichiba scandal.

Third, NTV television ratings are down, so something can't be going right for Yomiuri these days. As of 4/13's game against the BayStars, their rankings in the Kanto region, were at 8.8%. Their Openday Day game was only at 13% in that region. [Link - Asahi Herald]

- [...] but if you think that Watanabe and the Giants are no longer influential then you haven't tried to deal with the Commissioner's Office lately.

Of course the commissioner is still a puppet of Watanabe and the Giants, but gone are the days where Yomiuri can control the NPB and not expect to have a bashlash against them.

- If Watanabe does not want the WBC to happen, then I'd wager that it won't.

If the majority of owners want the WBC to happen and the JPBPA agrees to it, then it looks like Watanabe won't be able to stop them easily. Also, Watanabe will now have to deal with not being able get his way more these days. Gone are the days when he can run around dictating the NPB.

Finally, there seems to be a concensus around that the NPB revolves around the Yomiuri Giants. This isn't true. NPB doesn't revolve around Yomiuri any more than any other team. Once Yomiuri accepts this the better the NPB will be. Maybe, we can have a day where a commissioner actually does something in the NPB (though I'm not counting on it anytime soon, Negoro easily comes to mind, when talking about this point).

I would love to see Yomiuri be punished by the NPB for their direct abuse of power and it would send a true message, though I don't see this happening any more than a commissioner actually doing things in the best interest of the league.

Ah the day when the Commissioner's Office truly ranks over all clubs and isn't controlled by Yomiuri. Is it just a pipe dream, or are we gradually reaching that place?

The thing with the IBF World Cup and the Olympics is that they do not attract the best players in the world, meaning those who play for MLB teams. And because the Classic is MLB run, the best players in the world get to play in the tournament. Hence MLB's power in this tournament.

The oddity is Japan, that has a fairly strong domestic league in NPB (but not equal to MLB), so NPB thinks it has some leverage against MLB in terms of organizing and running the Classic. It will be interesting to see how this power struggle works out.

Because this will be the first true "best on best" baseball tournament that pits national teams against each other (but what about Cuba?), I'm very intrigued and enthusiastic. I believe that one way or another, NPB will settle with MLB, and Japan will participate in the Classic with Ichiro, Godzilla, Matsuzaka, Uehara, Matsunaka, et al. Should be fascinating, and I can't wait! (Though March means that many players will not be in season shape. Hopefully the early start of Japanese spring training and exhibition season will help.)

As for Nabetsune, I wish he'd completely disappear somehow without pulling strings from behind the scenes. But alas, he's now offically back.

Christopher's comments make me recall the remarks of the late Don Blasingame when he managed the Hanshin Tigers. Said Blazer, "You could take the groundskeepers and put them in Giants uniforms and play a game at midnight against a bunch of nobodies and still you would fill the stadium. It's just the idea of the Giants." Thank god those days have passed. For good, I hope.

About Watanabe, he resigned last year because his insulting remarks about Furuta and Horie turned out to be so counter-productive. They turned public opinion against him, caused a dip in sales of the Yomiuri Shimbun, embarrased the oganization, and made it difficult for Yomiuri reporters to do their jobs. So Watanabe temporarily withdrew, not to save face, but to save subsriptions. The Ichiba payoffs were just an excuse for him to leave.

Who knows what would have happened last summer if Watanabe had kept his big arrogant mouth shut. His intemperate remarks helped create such a groundswell of symnpathy on the part of the fans for the players and against contraction, that it forced the union to take action. For once, the NPBPA had to stop being little more than a drinking society and actually do something - in this case, a two-day strike, accompanied by abject apologies and free autograph sessions. Wow. I guess it was nice that the Rakuten Golden Eagles emerged as a result, but how much nicer (and simpler) would it have been if the union had rescued the Kintetsu Buffaloes instead?

Watanabe may be approaching senility, but the fact that he is back as "kaicho" is an indication of how much power the man still has. Don't forget that this is the guy who helped put Nakasone in the Prime Minister's Office for nearly a decade. He's a man who has hobnobbed with underworld bosses and who is not afraid to play dirty when necessary - as is described in a recent bio in all its sordid detail. (I found it odd that Tsutsumi wound up in jail so soon after torpedoing Watanabe's hoped for contraction. But maybe that's just a coincidence.)

Also, don't forget how Watanabe rammed through free agency against the wishes of 10 other owners. Although he has failed twice to get his one-league system, I've no doubt he will try again and use every trick in the book he can to pull it off. The old coot appears determined to go out in a blaze of glory.

I would dearly love to see someone like Sennichi Hoshino, someone with real grit, become the Commisioner of Japanese baseball and put Watanabe in his place. But I doubt that will happen anytime soon. (As one baseball insider explained it to me, Hoshino would make a great Commissioner, but he'll never get the job because Watanabe doesn't like him.)

As for the WBC, the NPB has had ages to make counter-proposals to the MLB, but all the people at the Commisioner's Office have done is delay, object, and waste time. I know that part of their antipathy is because the original World Cup idea was proposed, some five years ago, by the head of the Amateur Baseball Association in Japan, an oganizatioin that has long been at loggerheads with the NPB. It is safe to say that these two groups despise each other.

I don't know what Watanabe will do any more than the next guy. First he supported the idea. Now he seems to be having second thoughts. But if he wants to sway public opinion one way or the other, all he has to do is call on his famous employee Shigeo Nagashima to make a statement for or against the WBC. Everyone else will fall in line, regardless of what the owners or the NPBPA wants. I stand by my earlier statement that if Watanabe wants to scotch Japan's participation in the WBC, he will. I'm willing to bet. Any takers out there?

As for the growing popularity of the NPB, we really don't know, do we, because all the attendance figures up until this year have been grossly inflated. Lotte has certainly become a big hit, I watch them all the time on cable and the crowds are something else. Hanshin's going gangbusters and so is Softbank. But can you call the 15,000 or so fans that Rakuten gets on average a success? Certainly Seibu and Hiroshima don't seem to be drawing at all. Neither is Orix. If anybody has a way to gauge this year against previous years, I'd like to know what it is.

P.S. I wonder what attendance would be like if Hideki Matsui came back to play for the Giants - their precipitous fall in the ratings began with his departure if memory serves. And I wonder if the Orix Bufflaoes would draw any more if Ichiro Suzuki came back to play for his old boss, Ohgi.

- Wow. I guess it was nice that the Rakuten Golden Eagles emerged as a result, but how much nicer (and simpler) would it have been if the union had rescued the Kintetsu Buffaloes instead?

Orix and Kintestu refused to even listen to Horie (Livedoor). NPB's owners refused to even consider Horie's proposal to buy Kintestu. Watanabe did lead a massive attack against Horie, which prevented Horie from buying the Buffaloes. The union did all they could to try to save Kintetsu, but the owners voted to merge Orix and Kintestu together.

I still believe that the days where Watanabe can dictate the NPB and not expect action are gone. Of course, Watanabe still has power over people, but this power is falling.

- I stand by my earlier statement that if Watanabe wants to scotch Japan's participation in the WBC, he will.

Because of Watanabe and Yomiuri's wide abuse of powers, it will be harder for Watanabe to push through his idea. Remember that the NPB can't afford another fiasco like last year, neither can they afford people like Nabestune.

As I said above, it is time someone makes Yomiuri follow the same laws that apply to the NPB, not whatever Yomiuri wants. Though I don't see this happening.

Also, like I stated before, revenue sharing needs to be applied in NPB, and also Yomiuri's baseball television fundings needs to be put in a fund to be shared by all teams. Instead of looking at the sidelines, something needs to be done about Yomiuri's blatant abuse of power. However, we won't ever see this as long as Negoro is commisioner.

We need to see a draft that's fair, not one that only sees to the needs of Yomiuri. At the current point, Yomiuri seems to think that the rules of the NPB don't apply to them, which currently they don't regardless of how people look at it. Instead of giving in and ignoring the problems, the NPB needs to take the initative and do something to stop this abuse of power by Yomiuri, though with Watanabe's puppet Negoro at the helm, no needed reform will happen.

It seems like there's a need for a revolutionary change in the NPB, finally to change something, as the league is uncommitted to doing it.

- Orix and Kintestu refused to even listen to Horie (Livedoor). NPB's owners refused to even consider Horie's proposal to buy Kintestu. Watanabe did lead a massive attack against Horie, which prevented Horie from buying the Buffaloes. The union did all they could to try to save Kintetsu, but the owners voted to merge Orix and Kintestu together.

John, so what prevented the NPBPA from going on strike until a new vote was cast to unmerge the two teams? What is the point of having a union if the members are only willing to take half-measures?

Good grief. Can this be "wa" at work?

- John, so what prevented the NPBPA from going on strike until a new vote was cast to unmerge the two teams? What is the point of having a union if the members are only willing to take half-measures?

Nothing prevented them from striking longer. In fact, I was hoping that the union would have gone along with their strike longer. I said that they needed to strike through the post-season. This would have sent the league and Watanabe a message. What I think prevented the JBPBA from wanting to strike longer is the current concensus in Japan dealing with strikes.

Also, there is no point in having a union that won't stand up for it's own players and the teams they play for. Though with last year's merger it was all a confusing mess. That could have been prevented by just letting Horie buy Kintestu's team. We would have prevented the whole strike and the Iwakuma situation we had in the off-season, too. Orix and Kintestu would have still been two seperate teams.

In my opinion, the union did all they could with the current business model in the NPB and the opinion dealing with strikes in Japan (which are mostly unheard of). Also, will the union use their power to prevent these types of abuses in the future? Will they use their power in the best interest of the players they represent? And will they be in it for the best interest of the fans? Only time can tell, but last year's strike (even though short) was a welcome sign. Let's just hope the JBPBA will continue what they started last year.

- Christopher's comments make me recall the remarks of the late Don Blasingame when he managed the Hanshin Tigers. Said Blazer, "You could take the groundskeepers and put them in Giants uniforms and play a game at midnight against a bunch of nobodies and still you would fill the stadium. It's just the idea of the Giants." Thank god those days have passed. For good, I hope.

I think those days are indeed over. A good benchmark for a team's popularity is how many visiting fans they bring to Jingu stadium when they play Yakult. The far and away leader over the last few years has been Hanshin, whose fans take up almost three quarters of the ground (from the left field bleachers all around to along the first baseline stands).

In past years the situation was the same for every Giants' game at Jingu, but this year for some of the games, their fans barely filled the Jingu left field bleachers. Giants games, which used to be the highlights of the season, are now almost akin to a visit by the BayStars or Chunichi - how times are changing.

Of course this could just be due to the fickle nature of Giants fans and the fact that Yomiuri are playing so badly, but I think the days of people automatically turning out to see them are thankfully over.

- Of course this could just be due to the fickle nature of Giants fans and the fact that Yomiuri are playing so badly, but I think the days of people automatically turning out to see them are thankfully over.

Maybe. It could also be the start of some needed reform in the NPB and the slow start to the breakup of Watanabe's large abuse of power.

I can't wait for the day Watanabe falls from power, for it will be when the NPB will see some true type of reform. However, with Nabestune's influence and connections in Japan, this looks like a hard situation to make happen. Hopefully, the introduction of new owners, the JBPBA, and public pressure keep him from pushing his agenda.

- I would dearly love to see someone like Sennichi Hoshino, someone with real grit, become the Commisioner of Japanese baseball and put Watanabe in his place. But I doubt that will happen anytime soon.

I can't agree more. I am deeply suspicious about the pace of "change" in Japanese baseball, and while Watanabe's influence may be waning a little, I think that he is still very much in charge of his Kyojin flagship and NPB armada, even if the boats are leaking a little now. Please forgive the slightly stretched metaphor.

I have spent a lot of time thinking about structural issues in J-Sport, and come to the conclusion that very little will truly change until Watanabe passes on. When he does, I can imagine a Tanaka Kakuei-esque period where everyone stands around wondering what to do, and it will be then that a window of opportunity will open up for true change to be made. I would love to see a strong reformist of the likes of Hoshino take over then and try to give NPB a new direction (with luck he won't be too concerned about jeopardising his coffee advertisement sideline!)

Then again, the same ideas embodied by different people may well take over and keep the ship on the same depressing course. But that instead someome like Hoshino will take over, and restore trust to the system. I feel that the J-Public has lost its faith in the baseball establishment, from the backroom machinations that everyone suspects, to the biased commentators, etc. Someone with a strong mandate needs to try and restore the public's faith in the greater good that a sport like baseball can embody, one that lives up to its history, and not merely for the back pockets of Watanabe and his mates.

Given a window of opportunity, could Sen'ichi Hoshino do that?

Hoshino was a fiercely competitive player. He remains a straight talker and he does not tolerate nonsense from those who should know better. His dislike of Nabetsu is well documented, too. But is he a reformer?

- Is it just a pipe dream, or are we gradually reaching that place?

Right now, in my opinion, it still hasn't happened completely, but the powers of Watanabe and the Giants are falling. The JBPBA is gaining power, the other teams are starting to backlash against Yomiuri, the introduction of new-school owners (such as Mikitani and Son), the introduction of inter-league play, and the popularity of Yomiuri is starting to reach an all-time low.

Like I said above, gone are the where Watanabe can rule the NPB with an "iron fist" and not expect a bashlash.

- As for Nabetsune, I wish he'd completely disappear somehow without pulling strings from behind the scenes.

I do, too. But as long as Nabestune works for the Yomiuri Shimbun Group this isn't going to happen. Let's hope the other owners, the JBPBA, and public pressure will prevent him from dominating the NPB.

NPB has authority inside NPB, so they can organize the national team from NPB players. But what kind of authority enables NPB to call MLB players like Ichiro or Matsui?

In the case of soccer, the Japan Football Asossiation (JFA) organizes the nationall team, but Japanese baseball doesn't have an organization like the JFA. J-League doesn't organize the national team. This is because all Japanese players belong to JFA, not J-League. Most sports are probablly like this.

What I can't understand is the players status during WBC. Do players belong to the league or each country? If players belong to the league, does NPB have the authority to prevent Williams (Tigers) or Cabrera (Lions) from playing for their respective national teams? If players belong to each country, it is strange that MLB has the say what to do about international games. That is the ploblem between players and each team they belong to.

NPB insists that international games should be controlled by the neutral organizaion, at least all participants should be equal. If not, the WBC is only held for MLB to make money. It is not real world cup. I don't understand why NPB has to take part in such an event seriously.

- NPB has authority inside NPB, so they can organize the national team from NPB players. But what kind of authority enables NPB to call MLB players like Ichiro or Matsui?

I guess it would be the NPB or a baseball federation inside Japan. Or it could be like with last year's Olympic team selection, just with the difference of MLB's players on Japan's team.

- Do players belong to the league or each country?

The players are the ownership of the team as they signed their individual contracts, though they are citizens of their respective countries if they still maintain citizenship in their native country. I'm sure Japan doesn't allow dual citizenship.

- [...] does NPB have the authority to prevent Williams (Tigers) or Cabrera (Lions) from playing for their respective national teams?

I don't really know. Williams played on last year's Australian Olympic team. I don't know if Hanshin agreed to let him take part, or had any right at all to deny him from playing it at all in the first place.

- NPB insists that international games should be controlled by the neutral organizaion, at least all participants should be equal. If not, the WBC is only held for MLB to make money.

This touranment needs to have equal representation for whoever holds it. As I mentioned above, teams shouldn't be at the mercy of a majority, uneven representation.

Olympic teams have been organized by amature baseball organizations. NPB just lent players to the national team. NPB has never organized the national team.

All Japanese soccer players belong to JFA, so JFA can organize the national team. But Japanese baseball doesn't have the organizaion like JFA. Do other countries have the organization like JFA? If other countries do, that is simply the problem of Japanese baseball. If not, it would need international rules for international games.

In the U.S., the U.S. Baseball Organization set up the rosters for the U.S. which is part of the U.S. Olympic Federation, though this time around I see MLB setting up the U.S. team.

As for the power of the NPB to set up their team, and call from Japanese players in the MLB, I guess it would have to be that they have the authority to do so? Also, would the MLB teams accept or object to allowing the NPB to select players from the respective MLB teams?

It would further beg the question, are the MLB, NPB, KBO, and CPBL teams able to object to the players playing in the tournament? This is the same thing with the U.S. Olympics, the MLB teams can object to a player being selected to an Olympic team. The Twins rebuffed the Canadian Olympic team when they wanted Justin Morneau, he was later called up by the team. Or it might be the Rockies when they rebuffed Canada from selecting Jeff Francis.

So, I guess, but am by no means certain, that if any of the respective leagues' team wanted to object to their player playing in the touranment, then they wouldn't play.

Hoshino as commissioner - that would be something. His dislike of Watanabe is well known and he would be very effective. It was Hoshino who persuaded Kuma to block the one league proposal, so whilst it is a nice idea, like Bob, I doubt it will happen.

Tsutsumi, though, was always pro one league and in Watanabe's camp all the time. He was very active in trying to arrange a second merger but couldn't persuade anyone once the Tigers blocked.

However, I don't see what the players could do to save Kintetsu - the parent company was hemoraging money and needed to get rid of the baseball club. The problem for any club in the Kansai region is that the Tigers have got such a hold on people's affections that others struggle for crowds and income. Orix is finding the same problem, and despite a reasonable performance in the inter-league series, is having difficulty drawing crowds. Their biggest crowds were when they played the Tigers, and the crowds were mainly made up of Tigers fans.

Rakuten took a sensible option in moving to Tohoku and seem to be making a success of it. Seibu are handicapped by their inconvenient ground which makes it difficult for them to attract crowds. Currently they are offering free meals with 3,000 yen tickets which says something about their problems. Hiroshima have a decent fan base, but with a cheapskate parent company are not able to exploit this. I think of Japanese baseball clubs that their marketing organisations are probably the least developed, and it shows.

Watanabe's influence has faded - he may be against the WBC, but if the other owners are for it, he will have to go along with them. He cannot risk another debacle like last year. Furthermore he has lost his main allies - the Hawks are no longer controlled by Daiei and Tsutsumi is in jail. Maybe the other owners will agree with him, maybe not. Their objections to the WBC have considerable vailidity. Public opinion, too, is a considerable factor - Watanabe is roundly hated by the Japanese baseball public (even Giants fans) and this further restricts his freedom for maneuver. To be honest, the WBC is not a major topic of interest for Japanese baseball fans. Most are more interested in the inter-league competition and the Pacific League and Central League contests. So unless there is a sudden groundswell of opinion either for or against, I think that the owners can decide for themselves without any pressure and without reference to Watanabe's whims.

Well it was also Tstsumi who caved in the end, with the NPBPA on the verge of another weekend strike. In fact, he is the one who personally called Furuta and told him he could have his new franchise. It seems to me he could have held out a little longer, if he was really wedded to contraction - as he had promised Watanabe.

But what I don't understand is why the union did not do more to oppose the Orix-Kintetsu merger. It was presented to them as a fait accompli, done without the NPBPA's advice or consent. Kintetsu might have been awash in red ink, but Horie was willing to buy the Buffaloes and keep the franchise in tact. He boasted he could make a profit. Why not let him try? Or Mikitani? There was nothing stopping either one of them from moving the franchise to Sendai if they came to believe that the Osaka market was a lost cause. It surely would have resulted in a better team than the present ragtag group of leftovers that plays in Fulcast Stadium.

About Watanabe's power. This is a guy who gives the orders in the world's largest newspaper - a newspaper whose investigative reporters have files with all sorts of dirt on prominent people in Japan, and, I might add, a newspaper whose subscriptions are often sold, door to door, by members of boryokudan (as I can attest from long personal experience). This is a very useful tool to have.

It was the Yomiuri that printed allegations (unfounded allegations as it turned out) about Horie's yakuza connections in a successful attempt to discredit him as a potential buyer of the Buffaloes. All this because Horie interfered with Watnabe's contraction plans and refused to wear a tie?

That's the kind of tactics Watanabe employs. If he hadn't enraged the venerated Hoshino so much with his "taka ga senshu" remark about Furuta, the old geezer must have gotten his way. As it was, the insult prompted the popular Hanshin SID to go on the warpath, among other places in the Bungei Shunju (where he called Watanabe a demented old man) and rally public support for the players.

My guess is that he'll be a bit more careful this time aroumd. You can bet he's got his legacy on his mind.

I like the irony of Watanabe accusing Horie of yakuza connections. Some of his own connections are very dubious. I am doubtful that Yomiuri's smear had much effect though. There was no way a very traditional company like Kintetsu would sell to Horie who is considered a young upstart without any respect in the Japanese business world. Horie was just using the offer as a chance to get free publicity and it worked very well. He was more serious when he went for Nihon Broadcasting.

I tend to think that Tsutsumi had no option but to caw - the Tigers would have blocked any further merger and the players union would have gone on strike again. He was so used to getting his own way that when faced with genuine opposition he didn't know what to do.

- Horie was just using the offer as a chance to get free publicity and it worked very well. He was more serious when he went for Nihon Broadcasting.

For what it's worth, I have a close friend who works with Livedoor and he has sat two desks away from Horie at the Roppongi Hills office for the past couple of years. It's his considered opinion that Horie was dead serious about turning Kintetsu into a profit-making operation, as well as cashing in on the PR, of course.

It's Mikitani who seems to me the less serious of the two. With all the headaches he's faced, his notorious lack of patience and reluctance to part with a buck, I wouldn't be surprised to see him bolt for the door eventually. Now that Hiroshima, Seibu, and Orix have one foot in the grave, could we possibly be in for another round of musical chairs?

Moreover, I find it ironic that a "traditional company" like Kintetsu would be reluctant to sell to a young upstart like Horie/Livedoor and instead give the franchise to Orix. If you recall, 15 years ago, it was Orix that was considered the young upstart. Our friend Watanabe was calling Miyauchi nothing but a money-lender who had no business in the world of the NPB. (Ironic also that the two had formed this wierd bond by last year.)

- I tend to think that Tsutsumi had no option but to caw - the Tigers would have blocked any further merger and the players union would have gone on strike again. He was so used to getting his own way that when faced with genuine opposition he didn't know what to do.

Well put. One would think that the once "richest man in the world" would have put up more of a fight.

At any rate, it's a pleasure discussing this with you gentlemen. I'm very impressed by your knowledge of the subject. It's been a real education.

- Moreover, I find it ironic that a "traditional company" like Kintetsu would be reluctant to sell to a young upstart like Horie/Livedoor and instead give the franchise to Orix. If you recall, 15 years ago, it was Orix that was considered the young upstart.

The Japanese business establishment really does find Horie offensive, and my friends in the advertising world tell me they don't use him for that reason. Rather like some of the British business establishment look on Richard Branson. However, Kuma, before he resigned, encouraged Horie to persevere and I hope he does.

- At any rate, it's a pleasure discussing this with you gentlemen. I'm very impressed by your knowledge of the subject. It's been a real education.

Likewise - please come back often.

- I am doubtful that Yomiuri's smear had much effect though.

Forgot to mention that Yomiuri's knee to the groin was taken seriously in some quarters. It was enough to stall a deal involving LiveDoor and a major foreign investment firm so an investigation took place.