A-Cab in MLB.com....

If you had seen the Lions games (Cabrera's team) at the end of the season against the Hawks (Oh's team) this year, and Rhodes attempt last year to break the record when playing against the Hawks, you should understand that Sadaharu Oh is the arsehole. Oh is a mean spirited, selfish, b*****d who thinks he can get away with murder and in a sense he has. He's a shameless coward and the Japanese press and fans know it. Of course some Japanese press won't write their true feelings about him in print. So I don't blame Cabrera for sounding ticked off.

If you had seen the look in his eyes whenever Cabrera or Rhodes were playing against his team, all you would see is a stone-faced, cold, piercing, and desperate man playing god. Sadaharu Oh is a scumbag and by those acts he's done to preserve his record doesn't deserve the respect he's received.

I don't know Oh enough to really defend him, but I do think the NA press has been looking at all this record protection stuff from a very narrow point of view. My feeling is that a lot of Americans forget you can't always judge people from a different culture using your own values.

Now, if this whole record protection thing is race or nationality motivated, then I'm all against it, and you're probably right in calling him a b*****d. However, no Japanese players that I know of, have ever come close to that record so we really haven't seen how the his team will pitch to a Japanese player trying to break the record.

If this is not racially motivated, (ie. Daiei walks Nakamura 4 times if he's the one with 55 homers) then I wouldn't be so harsh on Oh. After all, as someone mentioned in another thread, Chunichi walked Matsui to protect Yamasaki's homerun title (or is it the other way around?). I can't think of another example off of my head, but I'm pretty sure record protection, title protection schemes by your own team is not uncommon in NPB.

Plus, Oh walked what? 2000+ times? He might just be bitter about how nobody pitched to him in his days. I wouldn't be surprised if he experienced some racism himself as a player, being half Chinese in Japan. NA press generally refer to Oh as a "Japanese slugger", but I believe he doesn't even have a Japanese passport.

I would like to point out one serious mistake in the article:

- And then he faced Oh's Fukuoka Daiei Hawks on the last day of the season with the record on the line. Oh, the manager wouldn't pitch to Cabrera the foreigner.

He did not face Oh's Hawks on the last day of the season. He faced the Hawks on October 5, then faced Nippon Ham, Orix three times, and finally Lotte. This tells me that the author doesn't know anything about Japanese baseball except heresay. (Like the idiots at the NY Times placing Matsui and the Giants in the Pacific League. The U.S. press has been better this year, but they've still got people who don't do their research!)

Furthermore, he did get more than one strike since facing Daiei on October 5, but he wanted the home run so bad that his form was shot. The ppitchees he got may not have been where he wanted them, but there were strikes. Furthermore, when a player is swinging at anything so erradically, why throw anything he can hit out? During that final streatch, he did get a few to the warning track, but no further.

Had his chance, muffed it.

This article really ticked me off.

"Alex Cabrera is the only foreigner on the Japan League All-Star team. It hasn't been the only time all year he said he's felt like an outsider."

Misinformed fact number one: Cabrera is not the only foreigner on the All-Star team. He is joined by Chang Chiqia, a Taiwanese pitcher.

"Cabrera tied the league record this season of 55 homers first set by the legendary Sadaharu Oh in 1964 and then matched by Tuffy Rhodes in 2001. Cabrera said he could have broken the record, but there were forces working against him. In his last 20 at bats for the Seibu Lions, he said he saw one strike."

I can't say whether Cabrera flat-out lied or if this is maybe a communication problem. But this is completely and totally false.

Yahoo Sports Japan keeps wonderful records and game logs of NPB games. And looking at that we can see:

The Seibu Lion's last game versus Oh's Hawks was on 10/5. He went 1 for 2, with 3 walks and one strike out. Better than the Hawks' treatment of Rhodes last year, but clearly they pitched around him.

However, the Lions had four more games against three other teams following that game with Daiei. They were rain outs made up at the end of the season, they counted in the standings, and they counted towards single season stats. Let's look at Cabrera's performance in those games.

10/6 vs Nippon Ham - Cabrera went 1 for 3, with a fly out to first, a foul fly out to third, a single up the middle, and a walk. The walk came in the 8th inning, with one out, a runner on second, first base open, and Seibu up by 2.

10/9 vs Orix - Cabrera went 1 for 4, with two strike outs, an RBI double, a pop out to second, and an intentional walk in the 9th with one out, a runner on second, and Seibu up by 3.

10/10 vs Orix - Cabrera went 1 for 5, with two strike outs, two flies to right, and an RBI single.

10/14 vs Chiba Lotte - Cabrera's manager bat him lead-off to increase his chances at getting the record. He went 1-4, with a pop out to first, a fly to right, a strike out, and a single.

One strike in 20 at-bats, my foot. I'm beginning to get the feeling that the American media is holding on to this image of Randy Bass getting walked in the final game vs. the Giants, and that's the lens they want to see Japanese baseball through. Maybe its the only way they can hold on to their belief that MLB is so much better than NPB.

Man, I have to email all this info to someone at MLB.com. I doubt it will mean anything. But I'm really ticked.

> But I'm really ticked.

Yes, but are you surprised? I totally agree with you, but the article doesn't surprise me one bit.

It smells to me like one of things that were pumped up a bit to look a bit more sensational on paper (or on screen, as the case may be). Sure Cabrera was a bit annoyed at the time, but he appears to be enjoying his baseball here in Japan nonetheless, so I can't imagine him talking rubbish like that of his own accord.

It only takes a few pointed questions, a few words put in people's mouths, and a bit of nifty editing to make a fairly placid statement take on completely different meanings altogether.

Perhaps a measure of criticism should be directed at the editors of MLB.com as well.

I have to laugh at everyone getting bent out of shape about the American media not knowing every detail about Pro Yakyu. Just look at some of the recent articles from the Japanese media. How about the one about how the NY Mets are moving in their fences at their ballpark to lure Godzilla to Shea. I'd say the American media has been pretty decent.

CFiJ..The American media doesn't need hold on to their belief that MLB is so much better than NPB. MLB "is" much better than NPB. If it wasn't than why do so many Japanese stars want to play in MLB? Have you ever heard a top MLB star say they wanted to leave America and play in Japan? I don't think so. So chill out and get ticked off about more important things.

The problem is, Mariner Fan, that the writer of the totally wrong MLB.com (which is a horrendously laid out site; it's webmaster ought to be in the unemployment line. But it's run by Selig, so what do you expect) piece gets paid to get it right. When I get something wrong in one of my articles, I feel embarrassed and I don't even do it for money! If you're trying to imply that, "well, that site was never credible to begin with, so shut up," you should say so explicitly.

Btw, here's to David Lennon at one of the New York papers, for saying that Matsui hit 55 homers (and he repeated that statement twice) and then wrote another article that had even more wrong info about Japanese baseball. What a moron! But I guess it's too much to ask to crosscheck what you wrote by hitting Google for ten minutes or making a couple of phone calls before you submit it.

- Btw, here's to David Lennon at one of the New York papers, [...]

If it's the New York Post, I don't even get upset with them any more. I expect them to get everything wrong.

The New York Post is up there with ToSpo (Tokyo Sports) so far as credibility goes. (Well, a friend says that ToSpo does cover Pro Wrestling very well, so it does have its good points - for Pro Wrestling fans.)

There are perfectly good reasons to get bent out of shape over how the North American media falsely portrays Japanese baseball. In MLB.com's case, they should do a good job at finding the facts and presenting them. In the area of baseball, MLB.com columnists would be considers knowledgeable sources, and will most likely be quoted in local papers throughout North America. This is a big responsibility, and two glaring mistakes like those in that article are not acceptable.

What of other sources? The New York Times is considered a respectable paper, is it not? You can site it as a source and have higher points with a professor than siting JapaneseBaseball.com. Yet they're writing that the Giants are in the Pacific League! Misinformation to a massive audience that wouldn't think twice about confirming the source. I got such an article e-mailed to me recently without a URL, so I'm afraid that I can't link to it. If anyone who subscribes to the NY Times want to look it up, the by-line was: November 8, 2002, Japan's Home Run King Is Leaving ,By KEN BELSON.

What about CNN? For me, I'd never go there for technical news. Their technical segment is often out of date (by up to two years at times), inaccurate, and written for people with barely an elementary school education. For world and business news, too, they change articles as the day goes on without any kind of notification that the content had changed. There have been a number of times when SlashDot linked to articles there that were anti-Microsoft when they linked, then pro-Microsoft half a day later - with no notification that the article(s) had been changed!!! Fixing misspellings, or perhaps editing to make a sentence more clear without giving notice, I can live with. But changing the content and its meaning? Is CNN considered a reputable source? Not in my book.

But back to baseball. I expect MLB.com, ESPN, Sporting News, and other news agencies specializing in sports to do some research before spreading misinformation. A weblog isn't considered reputable enough to site on a senior thesis, but these "professional" news sites are. And they get their words syndicated throuout the country to people who would never find their way here to verify the news.

This is why some of us get bent out of shape by the misrepresentation of NPB in the North American press.

Here's a nice piece by ESPN's Jim Cable on Hideki in particular and Japanese baseball in general. Almost error free, too, if not for the Orix Blue Jays...

- Misinformation to a massive audience that wouldn't think twice about confirming the source.

This point was vividly illustrated this morning. The Daily Yomiuri ran a story (called something like "Will the real Alex Cabrera please stand up") based on that very MLB.com story.

Naturally, many people who read the DY but not MLB.com are going to see the story and feel no cause to disbelieve it, because it's up to those who get paid to research and report (as Garland-san so rightly points out) to get the facts right. Furthermore, it is the responsibility of editors to ensure that the facts are in order. We assume that those people have done it for us, otherwise it's just Chinese whispers.

- The American media doesn't need hold on to their belief that MLB is so much better than NPB. MLB "is" much better than NPB. If it wasn't than why do so many Japanese stars want to play in MLB?

Exactly, so why resort to misinformation and picture painting just to show people that? This is a mlb.com reporter writing as if he's writing for a tabloid. It's not just about American media, any time you have people writing things that are so blatantly misinformed in the mainstream media (especially Cabrera being the only foreigner, do they think other Asians are not consider foreigners in Japan or something?) it ticks people who knows the facts off. People in this forum just happen to know their Japanese baseball. I'm sure I would've be equally critical of the Japanese media if I saw that Mets' story on a major website I visit everyday, maybe not in this forum, but that's beside the point...

- This is a mlb.com reporter writing as if he's writing for a tabloid. It's not just about American media, any time you have people writing things that are so blatantly misinformed in the mainstream media it ticks people who knows the facts off.

In addition, it makes angry the people who do not know the facts and harbor some animosity/prejudice against Japanese Baseball (Japan in general) in the first place.

There are enough mis-information and un-truths about Japanese Baseball as it is on MLB.com fans forums... such as NPB ball parks being considerably smaller... or the "triple A and a half" level of NPB which had to be proven wrong by the performances of Nomo, Sasaki, Ichiro, and now (because of the NPB-MLB series 2002) Uehara, Godzilla, Kazuo Matsui, Nakamura, and Kawakami.

Actually, it is about triple-a and a half level baseball.

It's Americans thinking that it's well below that standard that pisses pro yakyu fans off.

I think AAA+ is what Clay Davenport and others have judged NPB to actually be.

I don't disagree with the AAA+ judgement either, as long as people realize that there is a difference between Japan and minor league baseball. Not so much the difference in talent, but the difference in attitude. Not every Japanese baseball player has his sight set on the majors. Too many US writers assume that somebody is playing in Japan because:

A. He's not good enough to play in MLB
B. Nobody in MLB "gave him a shot"

The fact is that there are plenty of players in Japan who are staying there because they want to. That alone is the most significant difference between Japan and any level of minor league baseball to me.

I agree that they overestimate the draw of "playing against the best," especially for guys who would struggle to start in the majors, but do so in Japan. In the current set of major league and Japanese salary structures, it makes little sense for such a player to go. Even for guys like Nakamura, it may well be more lucrative to stay. So long as this remains the case, Japanese baseball can continue as we know it now. If it became more lucrative to sit on a major league bench than start in Japan, then Japanese baseball as we know it is likely doomed.

The American sportswriters who write such things are at least vaguely aware that the majors have overwhelmed all competing American leagues. I have little doubt that the voracious appetite of the majors will not be satisfied with an Ichiro here, a Godzilla there. There is real danger for Japanese baseball, in that it must retain the ability to pay its starters at least as much as the majors pay reserves. The risk is that the Japanese game will become sufficiently diluted in talent that fan interest will wane and deny many or most Japanese teams the ability to meet this essential minimum standard of what they must pay in order to survive in their current setup.

However, if Japanese baseball is to fail in the manner I am suggesting is possible (and is basically what happened to the International League, the American Association, the Pacific Coast League, and the Negro Leagues), the process will be slow at first -- like erosion tends to be. It may accelerate in pace as the process continues, and may even lead to a spectacular, sudden collapse, but it is unlikely to happen overnight. The writers do not generally have a good historical perspective, and also fail to recognize the very real advantages Japanese baseball has.

I believe that if the Japanese owners were wise enough to make the Japanese players full partners in the preservation of NPB more or less as it is now, they would stand an excellent chance of success in doing so for quite a significant period of time. However, wisdom is not one of the traits more often associated with Japanese baseball ownership, especially when it comes to treating players as anything better than highly paid servants. Situations like the Buffaloes listing Otsuka for the cash when they needn't do so for several years is a disturbing development in this regard. Japanese players, not cash, are the true lifeblood of the NPB as currently constituted. If the NPB loses too many of those players, it will be bled white. Time will tell about the outcome, but make no mistake, the current relationship with the majors represents a significant danger to the NPB.

Jim Albright

Interesting as always, Albright-san.

Just out of interest, apart from the aforementioned pay benefits for those who wouldn't make the starting grade in MLB, what do you refer to when you say:

- The very real advantages Japanese baseball has.

Some of the things mentioned in the comment below by CFiJ, the cultural/language/distance barriers (none of which individually are insurmountable, but collectively are significant). All I will say in response to CFiJ is I think we agree more than we disagree--and if the Japanese baseball establishment acts as though it has gotten a kick in the pants, it can certainly survive. Complacency is one of the biggest dangers.

Jim Albright

- All I will say in response to CFiJ is I think we agree more than we disagree

Rereading over your post after I had written my response, I felt the same way. But, since I had already written all that out, I decided to go ahead and post it anyway. Please don't get the impression I was trying to bite your head off or anything. I've just developed something of a kneejerk reaction when it comes to predictions of Pro Yakyu's demise.

No problem. If you don't make it personal, I don't take it personally. I can handle respectful opinions which happen to disagree, even far more seriously than you and I disagree on this. If I couldn't, I shouldn't and wouldn't be posting anything.

Believe me, I do not have a stake in being right about a change in the current state of Japanese baseball. I think the best proof of this is I do have suggestions as to how such an outcome can be avoided. Frankly, if I had a stake in being right on the issue, the best way to see that the demise of the NPB came about would be to keep my mouth shut about the threat the majors pose, much less about how to counteract it.

In the interest of full disclosure, my personal preference is for baseball to go truly international, with say 10 teams from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to join with the 30 already in North America. However, there are technological and logistical issues which, while not insurmountable, would require a great deal of thought to deal with properly. Needless to say, such a scenario is not likely to occur in the near future.

Jim Albright

- The American sportswriters who write such things are at least vaguely aware that the majors have overwhelmed all competing American leagues. I have little doubt that the voracious appetite of the majors will not be satisfied with an Ichiro here, a Godzilla there. There is real danger for Japanese baseball, in that it must retain the ability to pay its starters at least as much as the majors pay reserves. The risk is that the Japanese game will become sufficiently diluted in talent that fan interest will wane and deny many or most Japanese teams the ability to meet this essential minimum standard of what they must pay in order to survive in their current setup.

There is one small problem with that idea, Jim, as well as drawing parallels to the Negro Leagues. The fact is, the Japanese Leagues are not competing directly against the Majors when it comes to fanbase. The vast majority of Japanese fans can't go see a Major League game (in person) whenever they want to. They can go see a Japanese game. They are not competing in terms of broadcasting (although writers like to make it seem like they are) because a) games are on at wildly different time slots, and b) the Japanese fans that are content getting up early (or staying up late) to watch an MLB game can also continue to watch Japanese baseball. It's not an all or nothing situation, and I'm perplexed that people see it that way. Fans of both the Majors and NPB get the best of both worlds.

Not to mention the novelty factor. It was big news when Nomo went over to the Majors. When Sasaki, who was Japan's greatest closer in history, went to the Majors, it hardly made a stir of interest. If he appeared in a game a highlight would be shown on the nightly sports programs, and a small article would appear in the dailies. Fans noted his success with interest, but they didn't stop watching the BayStars just because he left.

It was the same with Ichiro. He was the first position player. It was big news. But, this past year it wasn't such a big deal. The coverage wasn't nearly as much, and the interest wasn't nearly as much. It will be the same with Matsui. Because he is Japan's premier slugger, his first year will be watched very closely. But after that first year, Japan will return to the games going on at home because they are at home. And if other pitchers, contact hitters, and/or sluggers cross over, the interest will not be as large. There will not be nearly as much interest when and if Kazuo Matsui crosses over because they'll have seen it all before. Those who are fans of the Majors, or baseball in all of its forms, will continue to take note of how the Japanese players do, but most of the attention will be on the domestic product.

The money generated by baseball comes from the casual fans. MLB simply can't sustain the interest of the casual Japanese fan because it is too far away, too unfamiliar. The domestic product is immediately available, in a language they understand. MLB can make itself more available, but it can't make itself more available than NPB already is.

When MLB games began being broadcast on TV, people said that it would be the death of the minor leagues. And indeed, the minors had some rough times. But now, many minor league teams are thriving, and here in the Twin Cities, an independent league team has successfully competed with a Major League team. Because while watching on TV is wonderful, it isn't quite the same as watching in person. Which is also why the easy availability of games on TV hasn't hurt attendance. MLB simply can't deliver that on a regular basis to most Japanese fans. The NPB can.

As for a talent drain, I still haven't quite seen that. People predicted the floodgates would open when Nomo was successful in the Majors. So far they haven't really. A few players try their luck, and for true stars, only Nomo, Irabu, Sasaki, and Ishii have gone over in the six years since Nomo broke the barrier (in terms of pitchers). In the meantime, Uehara, Matsuzaka, Fujii, Takahashi, and others have filled the void. I think the current pace of one, two, or three players crossing over a year will probably continue.

- The writers do not generally have a good historical perspective, and also fail to recognize the very real advantages Japanese baseball has.

I agree.

- I believe that if the Japanese owners were wise enough to make the Japanese players full partners in the preservation of NPB more or less as it is now, they would stand an excellent chance of success in doing so for quite a significant period of time. However, wisdom is not one of the traits more often associated with Japanese baseball ownership, especially when it comes to treating players as anything better than highly paid servants.

Nor is it often associated with American baseball ownership. It should be noted that many interesting changes have occurred in Japan in the years since Nomo went to MLB. Most notably: free agency, new facilities, the option of players negotiating with agents, and the extended schedule. Change is slow in Japan, but it does happen, and indeed, has been happening for some time.

- Situations like the Buffaloes listing Otsuka for the cash when they needn't do so for several years is a disturbing development in this regard. Japanese players, not cash, are the true lifeblood of the NPB as currently constituted. If the NPB loses too many of those players, it will be bled white. Time will tell about the outcome, but make no mistake, the current relationship with the majors represents a significant danger to the NPB.

I do foresee increased interaction among NPB and MLB in the future, perhaps even some shared operating procedures. However, I'm still not convinced that MLB represents a real danger to NPB. Particularly since the Daimyo of Pro Yakyu are not powerless. The kick in the pants given to the Daimyo by the departure of Nomo, Ichiro, and Matsui may well be the best thing that could have happened to Nippon Professional Baseball.

A few points:

I wrote, in part:

-- The American sportswriters who write such things are at least vaguely aware that the majors have overwhelmed all competing American leagues. I have little doubt that the voracious appetite of the majors will not be satisfied with an Ichiro here, a Godzilla there. There is real danger for Japanese baseball, in that it must retain the ability to pay its starters at least as much as the majors pay reserves. The risk is that the Japanese game will become sufficiently diluted in talent that fan interest will wane and deny many or most Japanese teams the ability to meet this essential minimum standard of what they must pay in order to survive in their current setup.

CFiJ responded:

- There is one small problem with that idea, Jim, as well as drawing parallels to the Negro Leagues. The fact is, the Japanese Leagues are not competing directly against the Majors when it comes to fanbase. The vast majority of Japanese fans can't go see a Major League game (in person) whenever they want to. They can go see a Japanese game. They are not competing in terms of broadcasting (although writers like to make it seem like they are) because a) games are on at wildly different time slots, and b) the Japanese fans that are content getting up early (or staying up late) to watch an MLB game can also continue to watch Japanese baseball. It's not an all or nothing situation, and I'm perplexed that people see it that way. Fans of both the Majors and NPB get the best of both worlds.

I think I've acknowledged there are differences. I am talking about Japanese baseball remaining in its current form (i.e. two independent leagues). Japanese baseball will continue to survive, but it may do so a a major league feeder or by merging at least some of its teams into the majors. Frankly, I think baseball at this level or higher will continue in Japan because it is such a lucrative market that if the NPB cannot support baseball at its current level or higher, the majors will find a way to do so.

Yes, there are technological and logistical problems to overcome, but I am firmly convinced that the majors would find adequate solutions rather than let such a lucrative market go unserved. Probably the greatest risk to the current structure is merger, with at least some of the current teams becoming major league franchises. That way, the Japanese game would be coopted from within. The possibilities may already be showing: some teams are weak, and seem to be hemorrhaging talent (Orix, for example). The weaknesses of some of the franchises seems to go beyond inept management and normal swings of fortune. The issue is, can some of these franchises compete? If not, what will happen to them?

Other issues which exist in Japanese baseball are the dearth of good pennant races in the past decade or more. That lack of competitiveness cannot be good for the game. While great teams are often a plus, the dominance of Yomiuri should at least be cause for concern. One of the problems with the International League was that Baltimore was so much better than everyone else that it eventually became a factor contributing to the end of its independent status.

CFiJ continued:

- The money generated by baseball comes from the casual fans. MLB simply can't sustain the interest of the casual Japanese fan because it is too far away, too unfamiliar. The domestic product is immediately available, in a language they understand. MLB can make itself more available, but it can't make itself more available than NPB already is.

See my comments on the possibility of merger or major league expansion above.

CFiJ continued:

- As for a talent drain, I still haven't quite seen that. People predicted the floodgates would open when Nomo was successful in the Majors. So far they haven't really. A few players try their luck, and for true stars, only Nomo, Irabu, Sasaki, and Ishii have gone over in the six years since Nomo broke the barrier (in terms of pitchers). In the meantime, Uehara, Matsuzaka, Fujii, Takahashi, and others have filled the void. I think the current pace of one, two, or three players crossing over a year will probably continue.

Here, I submit you are already seeing some erosion of talent. While Nomo, Irabu and Sasaki have been adequately replaced, I do not see anyone beyond Kazuo Matsui (who may will depart also) who can fill the shoes of H. Matsui and Ichiro among the Japanese players. Furthermore, how much stronger would the quality of Japanese play be if none of those players had left? I don't think you can reasonably argue that the quality of play wouldn't have been at least a little better. If A-Cab and Tuffy Rhodes or other imports are the ones to fill Ichiro's and Godzilla's shoes, then expansion or merger would certainly work, because that says the Japanese will support top-notch play even if it doesn't come from Japanese players. What makes the current setup unique is the Japanese flavor of things.

Assuming Hideki Matsui doesn't change his mind, at least two of the three best Japanese players today (K. Matsui being the third) will be major leaguers. NPB can absorb some of this, but can it retain its Japanese flavor if, say Nakamura, Kokubo, and a few other stars all left as well? There's got to be a point at which Japanese fans will realize they are paying prices which are too high for the product they are getting. If that were to happen, NPB's ability to maintain its current 12-team, 2 league, independent form would disappear because not enough teams could support the salary structure to keep things that way. Where exactly that point is, I do not pretend to know. I am certain such a point exists, however.

Furthermore, the fact you haven't noticed much erosion of talent yet isn't shocking. The model I see is erosion, which, as I noted earlier, is often slow and gradual at first, though it may eventually increase at an alarming rate. The signs of erosion exist now. Excessive damage can probably still be avoided, but the longer the NPB ignores the danger, the harder it will be to prevent serious damage. No one fate in this situation is inevitable, unlike what many American sportswriters and fans assume.

That being said, if Japanese baseball wants to retain its current form, it had better be very wary of the major leagues.

> I think I've acknowledged there are differences. I
> am talking about Japanese baseball remaining in
> its current form (i.e. two independent leagues).
> Japanese baseball will continue to survive, but it
> may do so a a major league feeder or by merging at
> least some of its teams into the majors. Frankly, I
> think baseball at this level or higher will continue
> in Japan because it is such a lucrative market that
> if the NPB cannot support baseball at its current
> level or higher, the majors will find a way to do
> so.

I still haven't seen reason why NPB could not continue to support baseball at it's current level.

> Yes, there are technological and logistical problems
> to overcome, but I am firmly convinced that the
> majors would find adequate solutions rather than let
> such a lucrative market go unserved. Probably the
> greatest risk to the current structure is merger,
> with at least some of the current teams becoming
> major league franchises. That way, the Japanese game
> would be coopted from within. The possibilities may
> already be showing: some teams are weak, and seem to
> be hemorrhaging talent (Orix, for example). The
> weaknesses of some of the franchises seems to go
> beyond inept management and normal swings of fortune.
> The issue is, can some of these franchises compete?
> If not, what will happen to them?

MLB itself has weak teams, like the Brewers, the Royals, and the Tigers. NPB has always had weak teams. Weak teams are an inherent feature of the competitive system.

If we are talking about leagues being co-opted from within, then MLB is already compromised, since Nintendo owns a controlling interest of the Mariners.

But perhaps more specifically you are referring to the possibility that an MLB team may enter in an affliation agreement with a Japanese team like they do with PCL, IL, and other domestic minor leagues. I find the idea somewhat far fetched. It's certainly not impossible, but I believe it's highly unlikely. If a Japanese owner needs money, he'll be able to find plenty of domestic buyers.

The Major Leagues may indeed covet a lucrative market like Japan. However, MLB has never had to deal with an entrenched league with a long and popular history. Taking out pretenders like the Continental League via expansion, and subjugating the PCL is one thing, moving into an economically powerful foreign country is quite another. Even with a perceived economic disparity between the leagues, MLB would come into Japan from a weaker position.

The question at hand is not really the player drain. It's economics. If the economic situation in Japan were to worsen, and to get better in the U.S., that might lead to some kind of merger. However, I believe NPB could stay independent of MLB as long as it had a mind to. It has the homefield advantage, as it were.

> Other issues which exist in Japanese baseball are the
> dearth of good pennant races in the past decade or
> more. That lack of competitiveness cannot be good
> for the game. While great teams are often a plus,
> the dominance of Yomiuri should at least be cause for
> concern. One of the problems with the International
> League was that Baltimore was so much better
> than everyone else that it eventually became a factor
> contributing to the end of its independent status.

I'm not sure I agree about the lack of good pennant races. No Central League team has repeated as pennant winners since the Swallows in 93. In the Pacific League the races have been pretty close, Seibu and Daiei taking turns fighting each other off, with Nippon Ham and Osaka Kintetsu remaining as contenders. The Blue Wave are in low tide right now, but it was not long ago that they repeated as Pacific League champions.

In comparison, the same two teams have won the AL and NL East since 1998, and the Braves' dominance goes back as far as 1991. Anything that can be said about balance in NPB can be said about MLB, and I'm not convinced competitive balance is a problem in either case. Yes, the Giants have a huge advantage over other teams, but particularly in the last decade they have not been guaranteed a CL pennant every year.

Not to mention that it may not always be a good idea to judge the state of Japanese baseball by the same criteria we use to judge American baseball. The Giants are so loved on a national scale, that it might actually be bad for Japanese baseball if they didn't win a pennant every four years or so.

> Here, I submit you are already seeing some erosion of
> talent. While Nomo, Irabu and Sasaki have been
> adequately replaced, I do not see anyone beyond Kazuo
> Matsui (who may will depart also) who can fill the
> shoes of H. Matsui and Ichiro among the
> Japanese players. Furthermore, how much
> stronger would the quality of Japanese play be
> if none of those players had left? I don't
> think you can reasonably argue that the quality of
> play wouldn't have been at least a little
> better. If A-Cab and Tuffy Rhodes or other imports
> are the ones to fill Ichiro's and Godzilla's shoes,
> then expansion or merger would certainly work,
> because that says the Japanese will support top-notch
> play even if it doesn't come from Japanese players.
> What makes the current setup unique is the Japanese
> flavor of things.

I do not believe that quality of play is necessarily an issue. First, if quality of play was always an issue, the St. Paul Saints would not be successful right across the river from the Minnesota Twins. Second, it has long been assumed in Japan (and indeed probably still is) that NPB was not quite on the same level as MLB. And Nichi-Bei All-Star series through the years pretty much bore that out. But that didn't affect the success of NPB. If we are to take for granted that the level will drop because every couple years a star player goes to MLB (and I don't necessarily think this will be true), Japanese people will still support NPB because it is their baseball. They have it right there. They know the players, they know the team histories.

As for the talent drain, I think this might be something that will raise the level of Japanese baseball. The greatest advantage MLB has over NPB is depth. MLB takes from all countries to form its talent pool. Japan, for the most part, still uses high schools and colleges for it's talent. But now we have seen moves by Japanese teams to taking advantage of the international talent pool: there has been an increase in roster spots for foreign players. Until 1980, teams were only allowed to contract with two foreign players at a time. In 1980 it was decided that they could contract with 3 players, and have up to 2 on the ichi-gun roster. In 1995, teams were able to sign as many foreign players as they wanted, and have 3 foreign players on the parent roster. In 1997, the roster limit became four players: two pitchers and two position players. Currently, the roster limit is still four, but with greater flexibility: any combination of four players is possible, e.g., three pitchers and one position player, or three position players and one pitcher.

Hiroshima of course has its Dominican Academy. NPB has been picking from the MLB tree for quite some time. As the restrictions become more and more loose, I think we'll see more and more efforts to hire quality foreign talent, and I don't think it would be unlikely that a Japanese team might sign a top-drawer MLB free agent someday in the future, particularly if the Japanese economy improves. It's already happened before with Bob Horner. I don't believe the talent flow will remain one-sided for very long.

Here's my take. Yes, NPB has it's problems, not the least of which is a sluggish domestic economy. But, so does MLB for that matter. I think it's very easy to point at NPB's problems and make dire predictions, but we could easily predict the downfall of MLB as well. In fact, it's not uncommon for such sentiments to be expressed in the American media. I don't really believe that MLB is in very dire straits, and I don't believe NPB is, either. Things are always in flux, the leagues, both Japanese and American, always have problems. I simply don't see the current situation as very dangerous for NPB. Why? Because while I note the problems, I also note the improvements: the increased power of the JPBPA, and thus the better environment for the players, the increased acceptance of foreign talent (the presence of Alex Cabrera and Chang Chi Qia on the NPB All-Star team in the recent series should not be underestimated), the new stadiums, and the healthy exchanges of franchises. The Fighters moving to Hokkaido is a good sign. I think this is a period of transition for Pro Yakyu, from which NPB will emerge stronger and as popular as ever.

> Assuming Hideki Matsui doesn't change his mind, at
> least two of the three best Japanese players today
> (K. Matsui being the third) will be major leaguers.
> NPB can absorb some of this, but can it retain its
> Japanese flavor if, say Nakamura, Kokubo, and a few
> other stars all left as well? There's got to be a
> point at which Japanese fans will realize they are
> paying prices which are too high for the product
> they are getting. If that were to happen, NPB's
> ability to maintain its current 12-team, 2 league,
> independent form would disappear because not enough
> teams could support the salary structure to keep
> things that way. Where exactly that point is, I do
> not pretend to know. I am certain such a point
> exists, however.

Of course, I disagree. As salary and amenities increase for players, fewer of them will see the need to go to the Majors.

> Furthermore, the fact you haven't noticed much
> erosion of talent yet isn't shocking. The
> model I see is erosion, which, as I noted earlier, is
> often slow and gradual at first, though it may
> eventually increase at an alarming rate. The signs
> of erosion exist now.

What are these signs, exactly? What signs portend that the current trickle will not remain a trickle, if it doesn't dry up?

> Excessive damage can
> probably still be avoided, but the longer the NPB
> ignores the danger, the harder it will be to prevent
> serious damage.

This is the crux of my argument. NPB is not ignoring the danger. NPB has never ignored the danger. Is it a coincicence that players gained free agency only after Nomo left? Hardly. Was it just a quirk of timing that Atsuya Furuta and the JPBPA negotiated the right to utilize agents in contract negotiations the same year that Ichiro was posted?

This is why I don't think the talent drain will get worse. Japanese baseball has been moving toward a more player friendly environment for some time now, and continues to do so. Eventually, it won't have to compete with the MLB salary structure because players will be content to accept less money to stay in Japan.

What annoys me most about American media coverage of Japanese baseball is that it seems to be mired in the late 80s. I mean, jeez, did you see the clips MLB.com had of Japanese fine plays and bloopers? They were all from the 70s and 80s, for crying out loud! The enduring image of Japanese baseball is Tom Selleck in Mr. Baseball. And whenever a writer suggests the demise of Japanese baseball, they are either completely unaware or choosing to ignore the huge changes that have occurred in NPB. Japanese baseball today is pretty different from Japanese baseball in 1994.

I think the below passage captures the crux of the disagreement between you and me, CFiJ:

> This is why I don't think the talent drain will get
> worse. Japanese baseball has been moving toward a
> more player friendly environment for some time now,
> and continues to do so. Eventually, it won't have to
> compete with the MLB salary structure because players
> will be content to accept less money to stay in
> Japan.

While the NPB may be more friendly to its players, I maintain that if at some point it were to become significantly more lucrative to come to the states as a bench player as opposed to staying and starting in Japan, the NPB as we know it is doomed. I don't know whether such a point will be reached, much less when such a point would be reached. Japanese players may be quite loyal, but they are not stupid, and if such a point were to be reached, loyalty in such circumstances would amount to stupidity. As a consequence, I stand by the view the NPB must remain competitive in salary for players who would start for them but would be marginal starters/bench players in the majors.

There may continously be a few Taguchis and Shinjos taking their shot at the majors, but if a lot of those types of guys are leaving, NPB ball would quickly become AA quality ball at best. Japan can support much better teams than that, and deserves better. I believe Japanese fans would demand, and get, better than that, even if it had to come via merger.

The NPB is more than competitive at that level presently, and is not in imminent danger. However, the fact it is not in imminent danger is no reason to assume all is well, much less that it will stay that way. The majors have interests which are not necessarily good for the NPB. The majors and NPB may cooperate at some levels, but, much like the US and Japan, they also compete with each other on other levels. The NPB must recognize this and act intelligently upon this knowledge. Perhaps they are doing so, but from my distant perch on the East Coast (and with no command of Japanese to help me with much of the original source material), I get the impression that at least some of the powers that be in Japan would prefer to react by tightening the screws on the Japanese players. Such a reaction is precisely the wrong approach in my opinion.

Jim Albright

> While the NPB may be more friendly to its players, I
> maintain that if at some point it were to become
> significantly more lucrative to come to the states as
> a bench player as opposed to staying and starting in
> Japan, the NPB as we know it is doomed. I don't know
> whether such a point will
> be reached, much less when such a point
> would be reached. Japanese players may be quite
> loyal, but they are not stupid, and if such a point
> were to be reached, loyalty in such circumstances
> would amount to stupidity.

I disagree on a very philosophical level, but lets not go there. This doesn't have anything to do with loyalty, I think. It has to do with how much is enough. Millionaire CEOs of companies in Japan do not live as ostentatiously as CEOs do in the U.S. Nor do Japanese celebrities. Nor do Japanese athletes. It pains me to say it, and it's a generalization I don't like at all, but on the whole I'd say that Japanese people are less mercenary than Americans. An American player makes 5 million dollars, and if a guy not too different from him is making 7 million, then he wants 7 million. I do not think this is the case, in general, in Japan. Speaking from a psychological point of view, I do not believe that most Japanese gauge their success and happiness in life by how much money they are making. In that case, making $5 million and being comfortable in one's native environment of Japan may be preferable to making $8 million and dealing with culture shock, a language barrier, and other problems dealing with living and working in another country.

That's merely my impression. I don't think that NPB's salaries lag much behind MLBs. And they have been continually rising. Teams don't hand out monster contracts a la Alex Rodriguez (and I tend to think they shouldn't), but Japanese role-players are competitively compensated. Shinjo, for example, took a huge pay cut. He could have been making $3 million a year in Japan, but he chose the $200,000 (plus signing bonus) to play for the Mets.

It seems to me that you are suggesting what possibly could happen, and I'm not going to say that it couldn't happen. However, I feel you are exaggerating the case. It's possible, but unlikely. If NPB salaries weren't rising every year, I might say you had a point, but since they are I really can't see a cause for alarm.

> There may continously be a few Taguchis and Shinjos
> taking their shot at the majors, but if a lot of
> those types of guys are leaving, NPB ball would
> quickly become AA quality ball at best.

And yet, a lot of those guys aren't leaving.

> The NPB is more than competitive at that level
> presently, and is not in imminent danger. However,
> the fact it is not in imminent danger is no reason to
> assume all is well, much less that it will stay that
> way. The majors have interests which are not
> necessarily good for the NPB. The majors and NPB may
> cooperate at some levels, but, much like the US and
> Japan, they also compete with each other on other
> levels. The NPB must recognize this and act
> intelligently upon this knowledge. Perhaps they
> are doing so, but from my distant perch
> on the East Coast (and with no command of Japanese to
> help me with much of the original source material), I
> get the impression that at least some of the powers
> that be in Japan would prefer to react by tightening
> the screws on the Japanese players. Such a reaction
> is precisely the wrong
> approach in my opinion.

Jim, with all due respect, (and please understand that I agree with you on many issues, such as Oh in the HOF, and even in many respects of our current discussion), but I believe you are under-informed, if that is your impression of the state of Pro Yakyu. Westbay-san also reads the same Japanese sports daily I do, plus many others, and I think he would agree with me: the Yakyu powers-that-be are not sitting idly by trying to tighten the screws to their players. On the contrary, they are making conscession after conscession. They are discussing radical change, and they are seeking a multitude of ways to remain competitive, both in their players and their fans.

Watanabe is a typical blowhard curmudgeon, and just like their American counterparts, the Japanese baseball owners would love nothing more than to clamp their players back down with a perpetual reserve clause. But, the genie is out of the bottle. One need only look at the competition for Nakamura. A couple of Major League teams are expressing interest in him, but so far it looks like he will sign with either the Giants, the Tigers, or the Buffaloes. In the latest issue of Nikkan Sports, it's reported that Hanshin will offer him a 5 year 30-oku yen deal. It's been suggested the Giants will offer a 4 year 30-oku yen contract. Kintetsu reportedly offered him a 6 year 36-oku yen deal. Matsui only broke the 6-oku yen per year barrier last year. Now, three teams are ready to pay that for Nakamura, who's not quite Matsui. And as the stars salaries go up, so do the role-players'.

I, for one, have been rather impressed with the amount of change in NPB in the last seven years. Change in Japan comes sloooooowly, and yet the environment in NPB is markedly different from the one Nomo played in. It's the concept of kaizen improvment: instead of big sweeping changes, you change bit by bit, free agency this year, agent-aided negotiation in another, a longstanding salary ceiling broken in another. Next year or the year after, a player will probably break the 7-oku yen barrier, and in another couple years agents may be able to negotiate without having the player present. The Sapporo Dome is probably the start of another wave of stadium building, and I have no doubt that Hiroshima Municipal Stadium and Yokohama Stadium will be replaced in the next ten years, or at least undergo renovation.

In many ways, now is a very exciting time for baseball in Japan. Ichiro and now Matsui will increase interest in baseball in general for a while, and that will have a beneficial effect on NPB. New stars break out every year, and as I think we both agree, not all of them want to try their luck at the Major Leagues. Heck, bombastic Sennichi Hoshino has somehow breathed competitive life into the Hanshin Tigers, they contended for a bit, and then finished somewhere other than sixth, which is an improvement, if nothing else. It's a good time to be a Japanese baseball fan.

> I'd say that Japanese people are less mercenary than
> Americans. An American player makes 5 million
> dollars, and if a guy not too different from him is
> making 7 million, then he wants 7 million. I do not
> think this is the case, in general, in Japan.
> Speaking from a psychological point of view, I do
> o not believe that most Japanese gauge their success
> and happiness in life by how much money they are
> making. In that case, making $5 million and being
> comfortable in one's native environment of Japan may
> be preferable to making $8 million and dealing with
> culture shock, a language barrier, and other problems
> dealing with living and working in another country.
>
> That's merely my impression. I don't think that
> NPB's salaries lag much behind MLBs. And they have
> been continually rising. Teams don't hand out
> monster contracts a la Alex Rodriguez (and I tend to
> think they shouldn't), but Japanese role-players are
> competitively compensated. Shinjo, for example, took
> a huge pay cut. He could have been making $3 million
> a year in Japan, but he chose the $200,000 (plus
> signing bonus) to play for the Mets.
>
> It seems to me that you are suggesting what possibly
> could happen, and I'm not going to say that it
> couldn't happen. However, I feel you are
> exaggerating the case. It's possible, but unlikely.
> If NPB salaries weren't rising every year, I might
> say you had a point, but since they are I really
> can't see a cause for alarm.
>
> > There may continously be a few Taguchis and
> Shinjos
> > taking their shot at the majors, but if a lot of
> > those types of guys are leaving, NPB ball would
> > quickly become AA quality ball at best.
>
> And yet, a lot of those guys aren't leaving.
>
> > The NPB is more than competitive at that
> level
> > presently, and is not in imminent danger.

This is the nub of my argument: many of the Japanese stars may go for the challenge of the majors and/or the bucks offered. That is a cause for concern in how the Japanese fan base reacts, but I agree it is not necessarily in and of itself fatal. If an occasional Taguchi or Shinjo goes for the challenge of it, no big deal.

However, if you get to the point of losing Taguchis and Shinjos over money, then the NPB is in a world of trouble. That point, as I have said, is not imminent. However, whether or not NPB salaries rise for such players is nowhere near as relevant as that they keep pace with what players of similar talents in the majors are getting. If salaries in the majors for such players becomes static, the NPB can easily do the same. If salaries for such players in the majors declined, the NPB could probably do likewise. But if the salaries for such players in the majors rises, the NPB must keep pace with that rise. We're talking about a level at which $250,000 in today's payscales is over a 10%difference in the player's earnings. These are professional athletes with a very limited amount of time in which they can earn that kind of money.

I don't think the NPB can afford to lose all its stars, because they would lose a significant element of the attractiveness they still essentially possess: they are the showcase of Japan's best players. If you keep a Nakamura but lose a Godzilla, that's not great, but it's probably livable. However, if you quickly took away all the current all-star players in Japan, it likely would become a real problem. In that circumstance, the reaction of the fan base could be quite negative, and the consequences of such a negative reaction could be dire. They've got to retain the fan interest at a level where they can afford to pay the Shinjos and Taguchis competitive salaries. The issue as I see it really is: are they doing enough to ensure that they can meet this requirement over the next five or ten years? So long as they meet that requirement, the NPB can probably remain independent as long as it wants. However, if they lose the ability to pay competitive salaries to those types of players, the end is near. I think they must also be able to retain a credible portion of their stars to be able to meet this requirement, and that will be more difficult, though hardly impossible.

You have often referred in our discussion to the success of the American minor leagues. There is one huge difference to the Japanese situation as I see it: the minor leagues are not paying anywhere near the kinds of salaries I think the NPB must be able to meet to remain viable in its current form. The minor-league model for success has been to be economical entertainment for families, and with the salaries they are paying, they can and have made money that way. The NPB cannot retain its current status in such a model because they must be able to pay much higher salaries. So far, the NPB can pay those salaries. The trick will be to keep it that way in spite of the pressures exerted by the majors in terms of increasing salaries and taking away the NPB's best drawing cards.

the Yakyu powers-that-be are not
> sitting idly by trying to tighten the screws to
> their players. On the contrary, they are making
> conscession after conscession. They are discussing
> radical change, and they are seeking a multitude of
> ways to remain competitive, both in their players
> and their fans.
>
> Watanabe is a typical blowhard curmudgeon, and just
> like their American counterparts, the Japanese
> baseball owners would love nothing more than to clamp
> their players back down with a perpetual reserve
> clause. But, the genie is out of the bottle.

Perhaps I am under-informed in this respect, and I allowed for that possibility in my postings. Yes, the Japanese powers that be are responding to the threats, but, as I see it, largely only when necessary. They may get away with that, but they do not as a whole seem as open-minded and visionary as I read your post to suggest.

Jim Albright

> However, whether or not NPB salaries rise
> for such players is nowhere near as relevant as that
> they keep pace with what players of similar
> talents in the majors are getting. If salaries
> in the majors for such players becomes static, the
> NPB can easily do the same. If salaries for such
> players in the majors declined, the NPB could
> probably do likewise. But if the salaries for such
> players in the majors rises, the NPB must keep
> pace with that rise. We're talking about a
> level at which $250,000 in today's payscales is over
> a 10%difference in the player's earnings. These are
> professional athletes with a very limited amount of
> time in which they can earn that kind of money.

Jim, I understand this is your argument. I guess I don't understand why you are making the argument. The average salary in NPB has continually been rising, and all signs points to it continuing to rise. The Japanese owners have taken no steps to depress salaries, unlike in the States where the current CBA will act as a drag on salaries. So basically it seems to me that, yeah, if NPB becomes so weak that MLB can outbid for the Shinjos and Taguchis then NPB is in a world of trouble. By the same token, if a massive earthquake hit Tokyo and half of it fell into the Bay, then NPB would be in a world of trouble. Disaster scenarios are fairly easy to come up with, but my point has always been that it's time to get concerned when a disaster is probable, not simply possible. That doesn't mean NPB should maintain the status quo until its too late. It just means that it would make more sense to look at the game now as it is, recognize its problems, and try to fix them, rather than thinking of worst-case scenarios.

> I don't think the NPB can afford to lose all
> its stars, because they would lose a significant
> element of the attractiveness they still essentially
> possess: they are the showcase of Japan's best
> players.

I would argue that the element of attractiveness is that they are Japan's professional players, not necessarily because they are the best. The high school tournaments are arguably more popular than the pro game when they are on, and the high schoolers are obviously not the best players.

Fans of MLB take pride in that it showcases the best players because its history is one of a professional league defeating all competitors to gather the best players. For the most part, the history of baseball in America is that of the professional leagues. The history of baseball and its fandom in Japan is quite different. The amateur game has a longer history than the pro game. The pro game is popular, and rightfully sits on the top of the baseball food chain in Japan. However, unlike in the States, the professional game is not the be-all end-all of baseball in Japan. It is more important that the players be and act like "professionals" than they should be "the best".

The issue as I see it
> really is: are they doing enough to ensure that
> they can meet this requirement over the next five or
> ten years?

My short answer would be, "Yes."

> You have often referred in our discussion to the
> success of the American minor leagues. There is one
> huge difference to the Japanese situation as I see
> it: the minor leagues are not paying anywhere near
> the kinds of salaries I think the NPB must be able to
> meet to remain viable in its current form.

My comparison to the independent leagues and some of the more popular minor league franchise has less to do with salary than it does about "level of play". The constant refrain of doomers-and-gloomers is that losing players like Ichiro and Matsui will lower the talent level to the point where baseball will no longer be popular in Japan. My contention is that the vast majority of fans won't be keeping a continually running ticker that tells them the current absolute level of play is. They will go to the game and enjoy it because it's there. My point is that not having the absolute highest level of play possible is not necessarily something that would kill Pro Yakyu. Obviously it wouldn't hurt to have it. But it can do fine without it, if marketed right.

The trick will be to keep it that
> way in spite of the pressures exerted by the majors
> in terms of increasing salaries and taking away the
> NPB's best drawing cards.

Personally, I'm interested in seeing just how many Japanese stars get offered contracts much greater than they could get in Japan, particularly under the new salary-depressing CBA. I don't think most teams will tend to grossly overpay. In fact, what seems to have happened these past few years is that MLB teams are willing to pay just a little bit more than the players' NPB salaries, and that's only to those who have decided they definitely want to come from the outset, and don't entertain domestic offers. In almost every case where MLB teams and NPB teams have directly competed for a player, the NPB teams have won. The only time I can think where an MLB team won was with Shinjo, and ironically enough they paid him far less than the going rate in Japan.

Odd as it may seem, one of the advantages of NPB is the depth of MLB. Few MLB teams are going to be willing to outbid a Japanese team when they can call up an adequate prospect for the minimum salary. Its essentially the same reason why no MLB team tries to hire Petagine. A bidding war would drive the price of a player up.

> Perhaps I am under-informed in this respect, and I
> allowed for that possibility in my postings. Yes,
> the Japanese powers that be are responding to the
> threats, but, as I see it, largely only when
> necessary. They may get away with that, but they do
> not as a whole seem as open-minded and visionary as I
> read your post to suggest.

Open-minded? Visionary? Those are American modes of thinking. As I tried to explain in my last post, the Japanese form of instigating change is via the kaizen form: not big sweeping changes, but little changes and improvements bit by bit. Not seeking revolutionary change, but constantly and consistently changing it in small ways.

The Japanese owners haven't been panicking and try to change something everytime a big star goes to the Majors. It has been a constant process of reform ever since Nomo left. Once Nomo left, and succeeded, the Japanese owners realized they had to do something. And so the process began. Every year has brought a new development. Every year salaries have risen. It is not crisis time yet, and the Japanese owners have the time to do it their way.

Now, let me tell you what I think is the biggest problem facing Pro Yakyuu. I do not think Pro Yakyuu is in any immediate danger, and the Japanese owners are aware of the problem and are looking into ways to fix it. And that problem is: the vulnerability of Pro Yakyuu's talent pool to MLB. MLB taking players, even star players is one thing. It's quite another if they start taking Japanese prospects. The recent pursuit of Terahara by MLB teams was a definite sign that NPB must take steps to make sure they are competitive with MLB for hiring the young high school and college talent. Creating an environment that is competitive with MLB's is the first step, and Japan has a leg up on this one: few star prospects would choose playing in the American minor leagues over playing in their home country. Pay is also not a problem. Signing bonuses, however, are a problem. Japanese teams will have to (and I think that they will) open their purse strings a little wider.

Still, the presence of NPB as a competitor of talent is likely to deter MLB from making more than a few signings. Why pay an unproven kid from Japan millions of dollars when you can get an unproven kid from the Dominican Republic for much less?

CFiJ asks why I am making the argument. The best answers I can give are that 1) it more accurately defines the danger point than the poorly informed American press does; 2) it helps us measure how the NPB is doing in terms of maintaining its current status; 3) it tells us what the majors have done to other leagues in the past; and 4) I beleive that looking at the long term that the threat is more significant than you do, CFiJ.

Jim Albright

First of all I just want to say that I have never seen better arguments than what CFiJ-san has been writing during this long discussion (I've been following this web page for a year or two), and Jim Albright-san also has some good points, but in my opinion I don't see the salary as the biggest issue here.

Last year, Matsui turned down the best contract ever in Japan's history (can't remember the numbers right now) and signed instead a one year contract with the Giants. Why? cause he wants to play in the MLB. The same thing with Shinjo. And why did Ichiro leave NPB? I don't think the money was the main issue. As far as I've seen and read during his two seasons in the MLB the main reason for his departure from Japan was the Japanese press and a new challenge. He wanted to be more anonymous, and said it was such a great feeling not being recognized on the streets of Seattle (although it probably is not that easy for him now).

Since Nomo left NPB, there has only been 4 or 5 star players leaving NPB (Irabu, Sasaki, Ichiro, Ishii...), which is one player a year. I just don't see the red alarming light screaming in my face.

For every player who goes to the MLB, there are the same number or even more players who are turning them down to stay in Japan. Why? Because they don't have the desire to play in the MLB while others do, and I think it will be the same in the future. No mater what the salary is, some players will leave because of their desire to play in MLB, while others won't go, just for the same reason: they don't have the desire to play in the MLB.

- I beleive that looking at the long term that the threat is more significant than you do, CFiJ.

And so it goes. It's an interesting question of intepretation. Thank you for taking the time to answer my question in a clear and measured manner. I've enjoyed this discussion very much! It has been the most stimulating discussion on Japanese baseball that I've had in some time.

And you are most definitely right: your arguments are more informed, accurate, and well-thought out than 99.9% of articles on the matter by the American press. We may disagree on our interpretation of the long-term, but I think we've given the matter a much more thorough look than even the Japanese press has (let alone the American media).

Maybe you and Gary can do a point-counterpoint look at the issues discussed here on Baseball Guru. Gary is probably even more informed and on top of things than I am.

You are quite welcome. It has been a pleasure for me as well. I can't speak about the Japanese press, but I know that our discussion has involved a much higher level of understanding of the situation than is usually encountered in the American press.

Jim Albright

> In that case, making $5 million and being
> comfortable in one's native environment of Japan may
> be preferable to making $8 million and dealing with
> culture shock, a language barrier, and other problems
> dealing with living and working in another country.

Personally, I'd take culture shock for a $3 million profit any day of the week, but there you go...

Missed this statement from CFiJ the first time:

- NPB has been picking from the MLB tree for quite some time. As the restrictions become more and more loose, I think we'll see more and more efforts to hire quality foreign talent, and I don't think it would be unlikely that a Japanese team might sign a top-drawer MLB free agent someday in the future, particularly if the Japanese economy improves. It's already happened before with Bob Horner. I don't believe the talent flow will remain one-sided for very long.

Frankly, while NPB can certainly continue its efforts with respect to lesser regarded players of the majors (mostly castoffs), I think an effort to try and sign a "top-drawer" MLB free agent would be a disastrous move. First, I'm not at all sure they could or would win in the bidding. Second, such an act would rightly be regarded by the majors as a declaration of war. All of MLB's solicitous behavior toward the NPB would cease. Raids for Japanese prospects and talent would begin in earnest. Salaries for players on both sides would skyrocket. I suspect the NPB is not as well-equipped to handle such a fight as the majors are, though the majors would certainly take their hits in such a fight. The NPB should vigorously protect its turf, and may nudge for a little more American and Hispanic talent than they currently get, but an open war with the majors is something I feel they should only get into if forced to in order to protect their existing turf.

Jim Albright