WBC: Scenarios if Japan Beats Korea

If I'm not wrong you only take into account the games between the tied teams.

The above explanation is a little bit different that how I understand it. Since I'm reading it in Japanese, maybe my interpretation is wrong. You seem to be talking about score spread (runs scored - runs allowed), but Nikkan Sports only mentions runs allowed.

Here's how it looks after all of the teams have played two games:

Team    W  L RS RA Inn     RA%
Korea   2  0  9  4  18    .222
Japan   1  1  9  5  17.1  .288
USA     1  1  7 10  17    .588
Mexico  0  2  2  8  17    .471

Nikkan Sports writes the formula as being "総失点 ÷ 守備の総イニング" (Total RA / Fielded Innings Total). By this, I deduce that Mexico may rank higher than the U.S. if they defeat the U.S. by a single run. If Japan vs. Korea becomes a slugfest, then even Mexico has a chance of advancing.

If this interpretation is correct, then Mexico has a chance to making it to the next round by scoring less runs that they'd given up.

I think that everyone is in agreement that this tournament could have used a little more input from the other participants in how it should have been structured.

Well here's what the WBC website says about tiebreakers:

Ties shall be broken in the following order of priority:

• The team that defeated the other tied team head-to-head in a given Round shall be ranked higher in the pool standings for such Round.
• The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings for that Round according to fewest runs allowed divided by the number of innings (including partial innings) played in defense in the games in that Round between the teams tied.
• The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of innings (including partial innings) played in defense in the games in that Round between the teams tied.
• The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to highest batting average in games in that Round between the teams tied.
• Standings shall be determined by the drawing of lots, conducted by WBCI.

Note: Standings and Tie-Breaking Procedures are based on IBAF rules.

Two points I'd like to make:

1. These are international rules and haven't just been dreamed up for this tournament.
2. Only the stats from teams involved in the tiebreaker will be taken into account. So if it's a three-way battle between Japan, Korea and the U.S., then the runs given up by each of these teams to Mexico are not included in the calculations.

An interesting scenario would have a tie for the second spot between Japan, the U.S., and Mexico (if Korea beats Japan and Mexico defeats the U.S.). Then the runs given up to Korea won't count.

Here's the story explained on Baseball America. If two or more teams are tied then the one with the lowest amount of earned runs would advance. Also, the above rules will be applied, too.

As for Mexico, they wouldn't be counted in the tiebreaker because there currently 0-2. Here is the amount of runs scored by each of the 3 teams that have a chance to be 2-1.

Japan- 5
Korea- 4
USA- 10

I was talking about the spread of the score because Japan has allowed 1 less run than Korea. So if they beat Korea by more than 2 runs, they would have allowed less than Korea, beating them in the tiebreaker.

The following quote is courtesy of espn.com's Jim Allen, so I think it's safe to take it as fact.

Should Japan defeat Korea and allow fewer than seven runs in nine innings, the United States-Mexico game will be played simply for pride, the Americans eliminated before a single pitch is launched by Roger Clemens.

The Mexicans' only hope is for South Korea to defeat Japan on Wednesday and then allow no runs in a 14-inning victory over the United States on Thursday, in which Roger Clemens will go against Oliver Perez.

So the scenario that I posted in the "Japan Defeats Mexico" thread stands:

If Korea beats Japan, then Korea and USA advance, provided that USA beats Mexico, because that would leave Japan with two losses while Korea would remain undefeated and USA would only have one loss.

If Japan beats Korea by less than 8 runs, then Korea and Japan advance, as USA's Pool 1 runs scored total will still be higher than Korea's or Japan's (when only considering games between the tied teams).

If Japan beats Korea by 8 runs or more, then this will make Korea's Pool 1 runs scored total higher (between the tied teams) than the USA's, and thus Japan and USA advance.

Of course, all of this ignores the possibility of a three-way 1-2 tie between Japan, USA, and Mexico.

- The following quote is courtesy of espn.com's Jim Allen, so I think it's safe to take it as fact...

Be careful - sometimes Jim Allen does get things wrong. For example, in a Daily Yomiuri article on March 17 he said:

To qualify for the semifinals, Japan must now hope Mexico defeats the United States ... and scores more than two runs.

In fact, Mexico only needed to score two runs, not more than two. If Jim Allen had been correct, then the United States would have gone through.

My head just exploded. I don't get it.

No more if games. Korea just won. ^^

OK, here's the final word according to the WBC site, now that we know the result of the Korea-Japan game:

U.S. advances if:

• It defeats Mexico
• It loses to Mexico, allowing 1 run in a regulation game (8 innings in the field)
• It loses to Mexico, but does not allow a 2nd run until after it has played 8 2/3 innings in the field
• It loses to Mexico, but does not allow a 3rd run until after it has played 12 1/3 innings in the field
• It ties with Mexico, allowing 3 runs in 14 innings

Japan advances if:

• The U.S. loses to Mexico, and allows 2 runs or more before it has played 8 2/3 innings in the field
• The U.S. loses to Mexico, and allows 3 runs or more before it has played 12 1/3 innings in the field

Mexico advances if:

• It defeats the U.S., 3-0, in 13 innings

So although the U.S. is sure to advance if it defeats Mexico, a loss would likely see Japan take the semi-final spot. So Japan's well and truly still in it. I don't think anyone would want to bet the farm on this U.S. team beating Mexico.

Well, the unlikely dream happened! Mexico just defeated the U.S. 2-1!

I can't wait for the Korea-Japan re-rematch!

It sounds to me like all three of the teams are about the same caliber. Any of the three could go on and win the tournament.

Maybe it's common knowledge, but I thought I'd throw it out there anyway.

The reason they were counting runs against is because the primary factor - in the three 1-2 record teams' head to head games:

Japan defeated Mexico
Mexico defeated the U.S.
The U.S. defeated Japan

resulting in your typical 3-person janken (rock-scissors-paper) tie.

They just need to play more round robin games to avoid the tie breaker coming down to average RA so often. I wonder why there were so many days off for teams, the players need to get into games, too.