Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
Discussion in the Open Talk forum
Comments
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: BigManZam | Posted: Sep 29, 2006 6:04 AM
| CLM Fan
]
I don't know if there's ever going to be a next Ichiro, just like there may never be a next Jordan, but Aoki is pretty darn close. I think he'll peak at around 15-20 HRs and 40 SBs. He struck out a lot last year, but he's been very solid this year.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Sep 29, 2006 9:07 AM
| HAN Fan
]
He's still a bit raw as a fielder to start talking about that kind of comparison.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Yakulto | Posted: Oct 1, 2006 11:14 AM
| TYS Fan
]
I think you sell him short as a fielder. For a player only in his second season he's doing pretty well.
With his pace he covers a lot of ground and I've seen him make a number of very "Ichiro-esque" plays in the outfield. I'd say he's the best outfielder we have on the team.
I do agree that it's a little soon for any comparison though, but he's doing everything that's been asked of him so far - he's fast becoming the Swallows' star player.
With his pace he covers a lot of ground and I've seen him make a number of very "Ichiro-esque" plays in the outfield. I'd say he's the best outfielder we have on the team.
I do agree that it's a little soon for any comparison though, but he's doing everything that's been asked of him so far - he's fast becoming the Swallows' star player.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Oct 1, 2006 3:10 PM
| HAN Fan
]
Not really - I'm thinking of the recent series against the Tigers, particularly the incident which cost the Swallows the match. It wasn't even a difficult catch.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Yakulto | Posted: Oct 2, 2006 12:04 AM
| TYS Fan
]
True, that was a big mistake. But that doesn't overshadow the countless quality plays he's made this (and last) season, which are the norm for him (as opposed to any mistakes he may have made during the one Hanshin series which you would rather focus on).
Whatever, he is still young and has a very bright future in the game.
Whatever, he is still young and has a very bright future in the game.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Oct 2, 2006 10:05 AM
| HAN Fan
]
It is a bit premature to start talking about him being the next Ichiro though. This is because his fielding still needs more work. I mentioned the Hanshin mistake because it stands out as a basic error and was quite recent, but it rather demonstrates that he still is a "curate's egg" in the field.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Oct 2, 2006 4:23 PM
| HT Fan
]
- It is a bit premature to start talking about him being the next Ichiro though. This is because his fielding still needs more work.
Mmmm.
Ichiro's first full season: 5 errors in 130 games.
Aoki's first full season: 1 error in 144 games.
Mmmm.
Ichiro's first full season: 5 errors in 130 games.
Aoki's first full season: 1 error in 144 games.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Oct 2, 2006 6:11 PM
| HAN Fan
]
Ichiro's second full season 2 errors, Aoki's second full season (to date) 4 errors.
My point is it's still too soon to make the comparison. Aoki is an excellent player, but still a bit raw and may need to work more on his fielding.
My point is it's still too soon to make the comparison. Aoki is an excellent player, but still a bit raw and may need to work more on his fielding.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Oct 2, 2006 8:03 PM
| HT Fan
]
So, after two full seasons:
Ichiro: 7 errors in 260 games
Aoki: 5 errors (so far) in 279 games
On that stat at least they're about the same.
Christopher, your use of the curate's egg cliche indicated that you thought his fielding was not satisfactory on the whole.
Of course it's too early to make the Ichiro comparison, but you can't say Aoki is not the next Ichiro either. Certainly on errors (your justification for rejecting the notion) the two players have similar numbers at the same stage of their careers.
Ichiro: 7 errors in 260 games
Aoki: 5 errors (so far) in 279 games
On that stat at least they're about the same.
Christopher, your use of the curate's egg cliche indicated that you thought his fielding was not satisfactory on the whole.
Of course it's too early to make the Ichiro comparison, but you can't say Aoki is not the next Ichiro either. Certainly on errors (your justification for rejecting the notion) the two players have similar numbers at the same stage of their careers.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Yakulto | Posted: Oct 3, 2006 7:09 AM
| TYS Fan
]
Mijow is right Christopher.
You were highlighting his errors and implying that his fielding wasn't satisfactory. Again, I think you're selling him short.
While I agree that it may be a little early for an Ichiro comparison, his fielding really is pretty decent. The great plays in the outfield for him are the norm. The errors which you choose to highlight are not.
You were highlighting his errors and implying that his fielding wasn't satisfactory. Again, I think you're selling him short.
While I agree that it may be a little early for an Ichiro comparison, his fielding really is pretty decent. The great plays in the outfield for him are the norm. The errors which you choose to highlight are not.
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: Guest | Posted: Oct 5, 2006 2:15 AM
]
An error is as useless as a baseball stat gets, even more so than the win and the save. The problem with error is that a player with poor range will actually end up with less errors than a player with greater range just because the latter player will reach more playable balls in play.
Here's an article to get started in the world of defensive statistical analysis [Baseball Prospectus].
Here's an article to get started in the world of defensive statistical analysis [Baseball Prospectus].
Re: Is Aoki the Next Ichiro?
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Oct 5, 2006 10:45 AM
| HT Fan
]
- An error is as useless as a baseball stat gets ...
Good point - measuring defense has always been difficult for statisticians - but what other numbers do we have for these two players? I'm familiar with Defensive Average (DA), Fielding Average (FA), Fielding Runs (FR), Range Factor (RF), and Zone Rating (ZR). Are these figures available somewhere? I'm always happy to look at hard numbers.
Good point - measuring defense has always been difficult for statisticians - but what other numbers do we have for these two players? I'm familiar with Defensive Average (DA), Fielding Average (FA), Fielding Runs (FR), Range Factor (RF), and Zone Rating (ZR). Are these figures available somewhere? I'm always happy to look at hard numbers.
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I've been to about 14 Swallows games this year and I think they are a good comparison. The only two players to ever have over 200 hits in one season, Aoki's hitting, speed, and this year a surge of power over last year look a lot like Ichiro, with the exception of Ichiro's superhuman arm. Any one else have any opinions on this?