Nippon Series

Absolutely!

Question #2.
Anyone on this forum crazy enough to go to Osaka, Dotonburi when Hanshin wins the Pennant? Or wins the Japan Series?

- Anyone on this forum crazy enough to go to Osaka, Dotonburi when Hanshin wins the Pennant? Or wins the Japan Series?

Who knows when this will happen again? I'm not crazy enough to miss it!

Hmmm. Not an easy call. The Tigers dominated the first half of the season, and are showing signs of fatigue the second, while Daiei seems to have gotten stronger after the All Star Break, despite losing one of their pitchers (was it Wada?). Comparing team stats:

             Hanshin  Daiei
Runs Scored     635     683
Runs Allowed    441     464
Runs Diff      +194    +219
Home Runs       121     121
Stolen Bases     99     125
Batting Avg.   .292    .301
ERA            3.41    3.69

Fairly even in most offensive categories, with Daiei having a bit more speed on the base paths. Surprisingly, Hanshin's got the better ERA, despite Daiei having more of a "pitcher's paradise" image. I believe that both stadiums, Koshien and Fukuoka Dome, are pitchers' stadiums.

So, both teams have what it takes physically. Daiei seems to have been having a better second half. (I haven't checked the actual numbers, but that's the impression I've had.) So one would probably tip the scales in favor of the Hawks.

But Hanshin has so much momentum behind them. Hoshino-kantoku's "Never, never, never surrender" has really been taken to heart, as exemplified by their gyaku-ten sayonara victory over Yokohama last night (September 5). I've said it before, it reminds me a great deal of the 1998 BayStars where no lead was too great to overcome. There was always the belief that they could still win, and they did. What ever the 1998 'Stars had, Hanshin has it now. And I see it carrying the Tigers to Nippon Ichi.

Am I crazy enough to be in the Kansai area when they clinch? Hakkiri iu to, no.

It was Nagisa Arakaki who went out with an ankle injury. He should be back soon, but he is likely to be used in relief during the Japan Series.

Matt Skrmetta went back to the U.S. to have his shoulder looked at. I believe that he will miss the Japan Series.

Thanks for the correction. I knew it was one of the super-rookies. Then I saw in this morning's Nikkan Sports that Wada blew a 6 run lead last night (September 6), allowing Seibu an extra-inning victory, so I knew I had a correction to make. I really don't mind others beating me to it.

Thanks again.

If you look at stats it's pretty close. As mentioned before, both stadiums are pitchers parks, so I would hope that that favors the Hawks. The Hawks have had a better second half than the Tigers, and their pitching will only get stronger when Arakaki comes back. Call me crazy, but if Daiei can keep there bats going I can see them sweeping.

Well, here's one way to break it down:

First base: Nobuhiko Matsunaka vs. George Arias: Arias wins big on power and some on defense, but Matsunaka wins in average and, if I'm not mistaken, higher RISP average. Arias wins bigtime on health. I would have to give a slight edge to Arias right now due to the disparity in power and defense.

Second base: Tadahito Iguchi vs. Makoto Imaoka. Iguchi wins on defense, power, and steals, but Imaoka wins on average with RISP and average. I tend to like Imaoka in important situations more. So it's a push. But if Imaoka's shoulder is still bothering him by the last week of the season, Iguchi.

Shortstop: Yusuke Torigoe vs. Atsushi Fujimoto: They are both problematic defensively. Fujimoto has been the better hitter and he's faster, which makes him more of steals' threat. Fujimoto gets the nod here, but not necessarily a thumbs up.

Third base: Munenori Kawasaki vs. Atsushi Kataoka: Kawasaki is the better defender and he can run some. Kataoka has lots more power and, though I haven't checked, but I think he's outhitting Kawasaki average-wise. He is also a veteran who has seen it all. So I have to give Kataoka the edge, but not much of one.

Catcher: Kenji Johjima vs. Akihiro Yano: Johjima. If you don't know why, you ain't payin' attention. That's not meant as a knock on Yano, btw.

Outfield: Pedro Valdes, Kazuyuki Takahashi, and Hiroshi Shibahara vs. Tomoaki Kanemoto, Norihiro Akahoshi, and Shinjio Hiyama: The big guy in the whole lot is Kanemoto. Valdes is streaky and you don't know which week he will pile up outs and which one you couldn't knock him out with a machine gun and a couple sticks of dynamite.

Akahoshi is one of the most improved players in the Central League, but veteran Shibahara has found his stroke again. However, Akahoshi can fly and is not reticent about taking off for the next base. Shibahara can really run, but he doesn't steal that much. Takahashi still isn't ready for prime time and I think that Daiei is going to miss Arihito Muramatsu bigtime in this series. So Hanshin wins here. And nobody hits in the second half of a season like Kanemoto.

Starting rotations: You will probably see a three man set Kazumi Saito, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Toshiya Sugiuchi, probably in that order, for Daiei. None of them has post season experience and Wada, while in college, had a problem with blowing big games late, and he's been getting hit hard recently, probably due to fatigue. Sugiuchi pitched a no hitter in a Koshien Tournament. These guys will either dominate (and I see a poor series for both Kataoka and Arias, since they like to hit the fastball) or they will get lit up like an out of control pinball machine.

For Hanshin, you will see a rotation of Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, and Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi, probably in that order. Two of those are reclamation projects, and I don't think that Irabu has championship makeup. The Igawa-Saito matchup in game one could be one for the ages. But you don't know what you will get with the other two. Before this season, Shimoyanagi couldn't get my grandmother out. So Hanshin fans, have the Tums at the ready. Daiei wins in starting talent.

Bullpens: Not even remotely in the same universe. Hanshin bigtime. If this ends up a battle of the pens, Daiei will lose. If Daiei can stay out of their mediocre pen (anytime you're using Takayuki Shinohara as your closer, you have a problem), they have a shot. Otherwise, forget it.

Managers: Senichi Hoshino vs. Sadaharu Oh: Oh is the easier guy to work for and I think his players will be more relaxed, especially since at least half the team has Japan Series experience. On the other hand, Hanshin has that sense of destiny about it and Hoshino will be looking to keep the pressure on the opposition. So they will be focused. I still give the managerial edge, though, to Oh.

Daiei has the more explosive offense, but if a couple of their big guys like Iguchi and Matsunaka sputter, they are just about done unless the young pitching can deliver. In a short series, Senichi Hoshino can afford to go early and often to his pen, where Trey Moore will be lurking to do effective longman duty, until his offense can rally. And Daiei isn't as used to being in close ballgames.

So Hanshin in seven.

Wow, fantastic analysis by Gary Garland. Many thanks!

I also subscribe to westbaystars' feeling about the overall Hanshin sense of destiny -- I remember this vividly with the NY Yankees of 1998, the sense that anyone can contribute big time and that the team can always find a way to win.

I will go out on a limb and say, Hanshin takes the series in 5. I think Irabu will contribute better than expected, and figure two superb outings from Igawa, and maybe even some surprise relief work in a tight game. Arias is on fire right now and I think that will carry over into the Series.

Good analysis. I can't agree with you on the bullpens, but you made good arguments on the rest. Especially since you gave props to defensive prowess of Iguchi. One thing I think we can both agree on is that the PY series will be harder to call than the MLB.

- Starting rotations: You will probably see a three man set Kazumi Saito, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Toshiya Sugiuchi, probably in that order, for Daiei. None of them has post season experience.

Saito is in his 8th year?

At managerial, I vote for Hoshino, if he was not with Hanshin, players would not have that confidence.

I select Matsunaga over Arias.

Did you forget Zeleta?

I would select Igawa, Irabu, and Kubota. Adding starters like Arakaki, Daiei's bullpen will be deeper.

Gary,

Thanks for the informative analysis. Well done.

Yano is a much better catcher this year than in years past. True, he is not as good a catcher as Johjima, but he has done a good job this year with not as many passed balls, and he aggressively protects home on close plays.

One reason for the Tigers' success this year is improved defense. I think Yano and several key players have trained extra hard at improving their defensive skills.

Akahoshi is better patrolling center this year and newcomer Kanemoto is very good in left. Kanemoto is not young (35), but he still has a rifle arm and catches anything that comes near him. He is also a good clutch hitter. Hoshino really put effort into aquiring him from the Carp at the start of the season and he has been a great addition to the team.

I don't have stats, but I believe Hanshin has more .300+ hitters in their starting lineup. Does anyone know?

Another key is Arias. He is hitting under .300 now, but that is partly due to a horrible slump he had during the "road of death" when the Tigers had to play outside of Koshien during the high school tournament. But he has been knocking the stuffing out of the ball lately.

Hanshin can get six or seven strong innings from their three main starters. And they have great closers.

Hanshin's offense and deep reservoir of good pitchers is the key. I pick Hanshin to win. I am hopelessly biased though.

Rokko oroshi ni sasso to
Soten kakeru nichirin no
Seishun no haki uruwashiku
Kagayaku wagana zo Hanshin Taigasu
O-o-o-o Hanshin Taigasu
Fure-fure-fure-fure...

- I don't have stats, but I believe Hanshin has more .300+ hitters in their starting lineup. Does anyone know?

Current leaders are here, and it currently shows that 11 of the Central League's top batters are at .300 or above. Of those 11, four are Tigers: Imaoka (1: 243), Yano (2: .336), Akahoshi (3: .326), and Kanemoto (11: .300).

In the Pacific League, the 17 top batters are at .300 or above, and seven of them are Hawks: Iguchi (3: .344), Johjima (5: .332), Muramatsu (9: .324), Shibahara (10: .324), Matsunaka (11: .317), Valdes (12: .315), Kawasaki (17: .302).

As a team, Daiei recently dropped from .301 to .298 while Hanshin is batting .291 (also a big recent drop, if I recall correctly). Daiei has the advantage of having the designated hitter, but they've still got more regulars batting over .300.

Yano has indeed finally become a first rate catcher under Hoshino's tutelage (in fact, I said this recently to some Japanese friends when we were talking about the Tigers). I wasn't trying to run Yano down at all, just that Johjima is a future Hall of Fame inductee while Yano is a future coach, at best.

As for the bullpens, I just can't see how the two sides are anywhere in the same universe. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

One thing I didn't take into account about the Matsunaka-Arias comparison, though, was aside from the fact that Matsunaka has an MVP under his belt, he has provided a lot more leadership to his team (see Jim Allen's article to that effect) than I had realized than Arias, not being a Japanese speaker, could provide.

As for Zuleta, he's a non-factor, imho. That's not to say he won't tear it up in the Japan Series. He very well might. But from what I've seen of his performances, I'm not expecting much. Omichi has a lot less pop than Zuleta, but he's still a better hitter.

- As for Zuleta, he's a non-factor, imho. That's not to say he won't tear it up in the Japan Series. He very well might. But from what I've seen of his performances, I'm not expecting much. Omichi has a lot less pop than Zuleta, but he's still a better hitter.

Breaking balls gave Julio fits when he was with the Cubs. Maybe he's finally figured out how to lay off them, or maybe the pitchers haven't realized that he can't hit off-speed stuff yet. Either way, Zuleta's hitting .267/.367/.519 to Omichi's .278/.314/.368. Unless you're talking about batting average only -- the most overrated stat in baseball, IMO -- there's no way Omichi's a better hitter than Zuleta. Julio gets on base more often in addition to his vastly superior power.

Who do you think will be the extra batter for Hanshin when they play with DH in Fukuoka? Yagi? Okihara? Hirosawa? (Hirosawa's got lots of Japan series experience.) Or perhaps Imaoka as DH while Okihara is playing second base?