Predictions?
On the other hand, one thing stood out about Hanshin: remember Okada-kantoku was saying something about encouraging his hitters to go for the fence more? Well, yesterday the Tigers seemed to stick by last year's successful tactic of stringing base hits together. There was only one HR (to Kanemoto), although Hanshin were missing Kinkade and Arias hit himself in the foot and retired early on.
All in all, a good game, but it doesn't bode well for the YGs.
All in all, a good game, but it doesn't bode well for the YGs.
I would agree with this. The Giants added Rhodes and Kokubo, sure, but they led the league in home runs last year and still finished third. Now Horiuchi will have to juggle AB's between Shimizu, Etoh, Kobubo, Kiyohara, Petagine, and Rhodes between 1B, 3B, LF, and RF. And none of them is particularly good defensively (except maybe Etoh).
This is a classic example of a team failing to address it's needs (pitching). I predict that the 2004 Giants will struggle to keep up with Yakult for third.
Well, you won't be getting the job as a pundit on Yomiuri-owned TV, will you?
I did send them my resume, but strangely I haven't heard back.
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 (1-3) Points
Giants 13 6 1 0 0 0 1 117
Tigers 6 9 4 1 0 0 1 105
Dragons 1 4 8 4 3 0 1 81
Swallows 0 1 5 11 4 0 66
Carp 0 0 1 4 8 8 40
BayStars 0 0 1 1 6 13 32
Former Dragon, Lion, and Tiger Tao Yasushi couldn't decide for the first three spots, so he lumped them together as 1-3, each getting 5 points.
Nonetheless, the ShuBe writers appear to think that it'll come down between the Giants and Tigers, with the Giants having the advantage. It's interesting that more have faith that Chunichi will do better than Yakult. Yokohama and Hiroshima are both pretty much considered non-contenders.
In the Pacific League:
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 (2-4) Points
Hawks 18 3 0 0 0 0 123
Marines 1 9 9 1 0 0 1 94
Lions 2 7 6 4 1 0 1 89
Fighters 0 1 4 7 5 4 56
Buffaloes 0 0 0 6 11 4 44
BlueWave 0 0 1 2 4 13 1 35
Again, Tao-san couldn't pick a second through fourth place team, so he put three in there, each getting 4 points.
Daiei is the overwhelming favorite to repeat. I find this interesting considering how hard it is to repeat lately. But then, you can always count on the "experts" to pick the Giants and the Pacific League team to repeat at the beginning of the season. They don't seem to learn.
Lotte is being viewed very favorable by all, squeeking past the Lions for second place. Like the Giants, it's hard to put the Lions in B-Class (the bottom half of the order) for any year.
Nippon Ham has a rather even distribution to end from third through sixth. They really are a hard team to gage. I'm tempted to put them into A-Class myself, but then who would drop out of A-Class? I do believe that Lotte will be up there, and no matter how bad Seibu starts off, they have enough talent to hold on. Daiei has a great team, but is suffering from a lack of trust in their front office, distracting the players on the field.
The loss of Rhodes was a huge blow to confidence in Kintetsu. I haven't paid enough attention to them to know for sure, but did their pitching situation improve any? If not, I expect them to battle it out with a still down and out Orix for the cellar, much like the ShuBe experts.
But you know, we Tiger fans are a pessimistic bunch. I was talking to a group in the office today after the sayonara win against the Carp, and they kept saying, "Oh well it's only the open-sen, and the Tigers always do well then." I said, "Yes, but they're the defending Central League Champions - surely that's got to count for something? We now know how to win!"
And they've got a great team again this year (not a collection of overpaid "stars"). I'm looking forward to V2.
It would be a lot more gratifying if it were a close race between Hanshin and Kyojin, though, and the ShuBe "experts" seem to be projecting that. However, I can't look over the fact that Kyojin still have glaring holes in their pitching staff. Kudo is too fragile to pitch often enough to make an impact, even though when he does he has been effective. Kuwata is a goner. Uehara is injured yet again (G fans should be greatful to have had a full season of him last year - everyone seems to have forgotten how injury-prone he was), Takahashi can't get anyone out, and the bullpen is horrendous. The Giants showed last season that scoring tons of runs does not a pennant team make. Why would it be any different this year?
So contrary to my Kansai intuition, I have to say that Hanshin should be the favorites, since their core returns (though we could have done without Irabu), though the Dragons should be viewed as sleepers.
After Cabrera's injury, they have to be dropped from A-Class (who can pitch besides Matsuzaka?), replaced by Nippon Ham (unless Nippon Ham insists on giving Shinjo more than 200 at bats).
My $.02.
When I look at the Giants, I see a slow, high-strikeout team with a terrible defense, especially in the outfield. Sure they hit home runs, but Horiuchi is going to have a hard time finding at bats for all his stars.
I will respectfully disagree with Suraj-san about one thing: I think Uehara is going to have a good year. He's been healthy for two straight seasons, and he is the best control pitcher in Japan (nearly 10/1 K/BB last year). As for the rest of the rotation, well, Kudoh and Kisanuki have their work cut out for them.
That said, Suraj is absolutely right about Takahashi and the bullpen. I'm looking forward to more Tigers-Giants drubbings this season.
On to Chunichi. I'm impressed with the Dragons' starters: Asakura, Kawakami, Noguchi, Yamamoto, Hirai, Guzman, et al. If four or five of those guys pitch well, Chunichi could win the Central League.
The wild card, for me, is Yakult. I could see them finishing second or fourth depending on two things:
- the development of their young pitchers (Takai, Igarashi, et al)
- the healthy return of Iwamura, and Ken Suzuki repeating last year's peformance.
And I'll go on record by saying that Yokohama won't quite be the doormat they were last year. Fifth place might be a stretch, but I think they'll generally be more competitive this year.
Should be a great season in the Central League!
Personally, I think it's time for Fukuhara to stand up and prove his worth.
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Any thoughts?