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Olympic Rosters: Japan

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Olympic Rosters: Japan
Part six of my Olympic previews. I haven't followed NPB as much in 2007-2008 as previously (as evidenced by my decreased posting here) so I'm sure some of you guys can correct my assessments as listed below.

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Japan won Silver in 1996, finished 4th in 2000 and won Bronze in 2004 so they're obviously a strong contender. They also won the 2006 World Baseball Classic against a better USA team and similar Cuban team to what they'll see in Beijing. They've lost Fukudome, Matsuzaka, Iwamura and Ichiro and a couple other guys have faded. OTOH, you have some nice young players like Darvish, Tanaka, Naruse and Wakui so the overall talent level hasn't fallen much.

C: Shinnosuke Abe [Baseball-Reference] is a very good hitter and has done well in several past international events, most recently being MVP of the 2007 Asian Championship. From the right side, you have Tomoya Satozaki who has some pop, and Akihiro Yano, who's probably mostly a defensive and veteran presence. Looking at the roster, I don't know who would be DH - Satozaki might be a decent bet.

1B: Takahiro Arai once hit 43 home runs in a season and also starred in the 2007 Asian Championship. He's probably as good an option as any other team will trot out there as first base isn't a strong suit for Cuba or the USA.

2B: Tsuyoshi Nishioka provides plenty of speed as does Masahiro Araki. Neither is a stellar offensive force but both are competent hitters. Cuba has the edge here with Hector Olivera Jr.

SS: Munenori Kawasaki provides some offense and glovework as does 37-year-old Shinya Miyamoto. Hiroyuki Nakajima has been a good hitter since replacing Kazuo Matsui at short for the Seibu Lions. There were some other good options in Tomohiro Nioka or Takeshi Toritani. I can't say any of these guys is head and heels above the rest.

3B: Shuichi Murata has been improving steadily over time. He's comparable to the USA's Mike Hessman - a bit of a late bloomer with very good power but only moderate average/OBP skills. He's one of Japan's top heart-of-the-order threats.

RF: Atsunori Inaba is another late bloomer who was the surprise Pacific League batting champion last year and was the Japan Series MVP in 2006. Yakult is probably mad they let him go, though Aaron Guiel filled in nicely last year. G.G. Sato is another option here.

CF: Norichika Aoki was basically just a singles hitter (but a very good one) when he first came up but has developed both a nice batting eye and some power. He's a very good all-around player and should do well.

LF: Masahiko Morino has never found a steady position, playing everything except catcher, pitcher, right field and center field with regularity. He mostly has been a 3B/LF. He blossomed last year but is still not exactly a superstar.

SP: Japan's roster is loaded with guys who are usually starters, some of whom will definitely come out of the bullpen. You have one experienced vet in Kenshin Kawakami and a couple mid-20s guys in Toshiya Sugiura and Tsuyoshi Wada but mostly they're going to some excellent young arms. 22-year-old Yoshihisa Naruse led the 2007 Pacific League in ERA. The guy he edged out, Yu Darvish is probably the most famous player active in Japan and was MVP of the league. Masahiro Tanaka is a 19-year-old who broke Daisuke Matsuzaka's high school strikeout record. 21-year-old Hideaki Wakui led the PL in wins last year. There isn't a weak link in these seven hurlers.

RP: Hitoki Iwase has been Japan's elite closer in recent years and might come to the US next year. Kyuji Fujikawa has put up some real gaudy numbers for Hanshin and is equally baffling. The most famous of the three is Koji Uehara, a converted starting pitcher who is not having a great year.
Comments
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: Guest: Number 26 | Posted: Jul 19, 2008 1:39 AM ]

Looks like Hoshino has a soft spot for young players. The team looks pretty good. Will it be good enough to take the gold? Anything but gold will be seen as a disappointment.

I am wondering why Kanemoto is not on the roster. I think he would be better than Morino in left. Does this have anything to do with the fact that Kanemoto has been playing every single game for Hanshin?

Is Matsunaka on the roster? I think he should be on it as his numbers are better than Arai or he could be an excellent DH. He is, in my opinion, one of the best batters in Japan. Though his powers have stagnated in recent years he is still a very reliable batter and a team leader.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: number9 | Posted: Jul 19, 2008 2:48 PM ]

I did a quick analysis of the Japanese roster as well.

The team appears to be well balanaced, but I fear Hoshino's tendencies to favour CL players over PL players may hurt the team. And what's up with Uehara? There are so many better options right now, but I guess he's a familiar face with international experience. If he blows any critical leads though, Hoshino will hear no end of it.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Jul 20, 2008 12:16 PM | HAN Fan ]

I, too, wondered about Kanemoto - this is something I have no explanation for, but am very relieved that he will stay with the Tigers. To lose both Kanemoto and Arai would have been too much.

I am also surprised that Iwakuma was not included in the lineup in preference to Ma-kun. He is the on form pitcher.

I have the impression that Hoshino had already made up his mind well before he announced the team and there weren't going to be many changes from the Asian qualifying rounds.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Jul 20, 2008 7:25 PM | YBS Fan ]

Talking with some others, the general consensus is that Kanemoto was left off the roster to continue his consecutive game playing streak.

There was something in the paper about Arai turning down his All Star election. If he refuses to go after the fans had voted him in, then he'll be penalized by having to be sent down to ni-gun for a period, or something to that effect. Has anyone else seen something like that?
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: Christopher | Posted: Jul 20, 2008 8:39 PM | HAN Fan ]

The only reason I can think of is his back injury (lumbar arthritis). He may feel he needs time to recover.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: number9 | Posted: Jul 21, 2008 12:25 PM ]

Yeah, I'm thinking Kanemoto's reason was his consecutive innings streak, too.

Although he changed his pitching motion since the stop-and-go motion was banned in NPB a few years ago, Iwakuma's still always on the verge of balking in international play probably, and didn't fare well when he was on the Athens team (didn't last 2 innings against the Netherlands), so those factors probably worked against him.

About Matsunaka, he'd either have to take place of Arai (but Hoshino's set Arai as the team's first baseman and cleanup hitter since the Asian qualifiers) or he'd join the logjam at DH with players who can play more positions like GG Sato, Nakajima, and Abe all vying for that spot, likely.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: Guest: Numer 26 | Posted: Jul 21, 2008 8:54 PM ]

I think Morino's versatility played a huge role in Hoshino's decision making. I think a good left fielder would have been Wada (Dragons/formerly Lions) apart from Kanemoto or, for that matter, Matsunaka.

I would also have liked to see Sugiuchi for the Hawks in the roster, too. Maybe he resembled Naruse too much?
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: Shinigami | Posted: Jul 22, 2008 4:01 AM | FSH Fan ]

Sugiuchi is on the team. He and Wada will probably be a mid-inning guy during the Olympics like how they were used in the WBC.

I was in Japan during the selection and heard Hoshino's decision on Maa-kun over Iwakuma is that Maa-kun suits being a middle inning reliever more than Iwakuma. And I suppose he wants Tanaka to get some more international experience for the future as well.

Hoshino's already mentioned that he will use Aoki in the no. 3 spot and Arai as the cleanup man. Arai played all of the qualifiers, and did a good job with it. Matsunaka's having quite a nice season so far, but I wouldn't want to see him in left field, as that would decrease Japan's overall defense. DH might suit him well, but there are other guys on this team.

Although I'd have to agree that there are probably better choices in the outfield, I think it's alright with what they have right now. Aoki is continuing to improve on his all around game, Inaba's been very, very good the last few years. GG Satoh's blossomed into a top hitter this year, and Morino provides the versatility.

Nakajima's having a MVP season so far for Seibu, but I think Hoshino would use him mainly as a pinch hitter, as Kawasaki plays better defense and will probably be hitting 2nd behind Nishioka, playing second base, and will probably be the leadoff man.

The rotation will be Darvish for sure, and I suppose Wakui, and maybe Naruse. But Uehara could be the surprise starter, with Hoshino still selecting him despite his struggles this season. He still hasn't figured out his original pitching form yet, and shows very little power with his fastballs. If they don't use Uehara as the closer, then Fujikawa will be the closer, deservely so.
Re: Olympic Rosters: Japan
[ Author: No.1BayFan | Posted: Jul 22, 2008 12:17 PM | YOK Fan ]

Got my ticket at Lawson this morning to see the Olympic Team battle the Central League squad on Saturday, Aug. 9th at the Tokyo Dome. Set me back a cool 6,000 yen, but I'm 17 rows up right behind home plate, so I can't complain, really. I'll try to post my thoughts on the game or something after, but no guarentees because I'm going to be short on time for the next couple of weeks.

There is no room for flaw with this team IMO. I fully expect Japan to bring home a medal, but of course, Gold would be the best.
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