Ichiro's arm

Its not that he has a strongest arm. He has one of the strongest and the MOST accurate. Its like Tiger Woods. He is not the longest hitter, but one of the longest and the MOST accurate. But I must say he really does throw laser out there. The trajectory is really straight.

Also, he only got 8 assist but thats because not one ran on him. One time, a third base runner didn't score on a single!!!

Also, he only got 8 assist but thats because not one ran on him.

Did you miss this the first time? "Saying an outfielder has a great arm because of low assist totals is like saying someone's a great home-run hitter because of low home-run totals, indicating no one wants to pitch to him." -- Bill James

I don't really agree with Bill James' analogy because of the difference in success rate in the two activities. It is more likely for a pitcher to pitch to a great homerun hitter because the chance of a homerun or even a hit happening is what? 35% max for a really really good hitter? Now if somebody hits a deep fly ball to right, the runner on 3rd is going to score no matter who's throwing so you wouldn't run anyway, on the other hand, if it's a shallow single or a shallow fly ball, if you run on someone who has a great arm, I'd think there's a better than 50% chance you'll be out, so you normally don't run. I don't have stats to back me on this, but it really seems that way. So it's only natural that pitchers are more willing to take chance with a great hitter then runners taking chance with an outfielder who has a great arm.

Dear Gary,

Just because the Cubs are a very bad baseball team and Sammy Sosa is a below average right fielder, you don

Some cynicism seems in order. It is naive to believe that an MVP award for a position player has anything to do with his defensive efforts. The point about Ichiro Suzuki is that he won the batting title. At the moment his average is a little lower than it might be, but he has already unrolled a good-sized hitting streak, a sign that he's comfortably adjusting his sights. (He hasn't played Tampa Bay yet, either). To repeat: Outfield assists don't give a rightfielder the MVP.

I'm the Cubs fan, not Gary Huckabay. I was only passing along the information.

Judging from your childish response -- what do the Cubs and Sammy Sosa have to do with Ichiro's average arm? -- you didn't read the entire article. I suggest you go back and do so -- and, if you have anything useful to add (i.e., something without exclamation points) afterwards, please do.

Just because the Cubs are a very bad baseball team and Sammy Sosa is a below average right fielder...

Hey Chiroman, did you catch this past weekend's Cubs vs. Mariners series? The one the Cubs won 2 to 1? Here's how the two right fielders stacked up:

Ichiro: Batted .083 (1 for 12) with 0 runs, 1 single, 0 RBI and 2 K.

Sosa: Batted .273 (3 for 11) with 3 runs, 1 double, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 K.

Here's how they match up so far this season:

Ichiro: Batting .369/.438/.459 (.897 OPS) with 47 runs, 90 hits, 9 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 30 BB, 22 SO and 18 SB.

Sosa: Batting .310/.439/.671 (1.110 OPS) with 52 runs, 67 hits, 8 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 40 RBI, 50 BB, 50 SO and 2 SB.

And here's how they matched up last year:

Ichiro: Batted .350/.382/.459 (.841 OPS) with 122 runs, 235 hits, 33 2B, 8 3B, 8 HR, 68 RBI, 29 BB, 51 SO and 53 SB.

Sosa: Batted .328/.437/.737 (1.174 OPS) with 146 runs, 189 hits, 34 2B, 5 3B, 64 HR, 160 RBI, 116 BB, 153 SO and 0 SB.

Sammy gets on base more often, scores more runs and knocks more runs in. Ichiro is a great player but Sosa's the best right fielder in baseball -- and he's been that for the past 5 years.

Hey Jeff (1908),

No, I did not catch this past weekend

The bottom line is this, the home run hitters are juiced, the balls are juiced, the ballparks are juiced and the bats are corked.

Wow, that

It's an interesting article, but his research is incomplete. Sure, Ichiro has a low number of assists, and runners didn't take the extra-base on him only slightly less frequently than the average.

But...

Huckabay doesn't take in consideration sac flies. I'd like to see those numbers as well.

Also, Safeco Field is big, and Ichiro has to cover a lot of ground. He trusts in his speed, so to do this he plays deep, figuring he can catch up to anything that'll land in front of him. In contrast, Guerrero has less ground to cover and likes to play shallow, so he can rack up assists. Also, player philosophy and team strategy play a role. A player who's always trying to get assists will rack them up. A player who's smart and hits the cut-off man instead of airing it out all the time will get less. In the same vein, a team that's not fundamentally sound on defense may not cut off some throws that will get an assist, but allow the batter-runner to advance a base. Just another example of why defense is so hard to judge by statistical methods.

I enjoy Baseball Prospectus. I read their webpage almost everyday and I recently bought the 2002 edition of their annual book. I have philosophical disagreements with their desire to remove all context in baseball analysis, but I find their analysis of front-office moves quite intriguing, as well as their pieces on baseball economics. But I think if BP has a weakness, it's overcompensation. Because their goal is objective analysis of standardized criteria, they have issues with unfounded statements, poor use of statistics, hyperbole, and hype. The last two is where their dislike of Ichiro comes in. The ideal sabermetric hitter is someone who hits lots of homeruns and draws walks. Defense is not really considered. Strikeouts are barely considered. And speed hardly even warrants a mention. So, Ichiro is really the antithesis of all that: he's fast, he's a superb defender, he doesn't walk much (although last year was an unusually low year for walks), and he doesn't hit for power. From a statistical standpoint, using the standards BP favors, he's merely a good player, not a great player. Add to all this all the hype and hyperbole thrown around. I think the hype kind of made BP overcompensate in the quest to be objective, and so they rather downplay his abilities.

Fwiw, I saw an interview with Bobby Valentine on TV once and somebody asked him about Ichiro defensively. Valentine said that Ichiro's arm was as good as Mondesi's.

I will give the BP guy that Vlad has the best arm in the game, but he also throws the ball away more than he should as well. Ichiro has a better arm than Burnitz, period. And while Tim Salmon indeed has a gun, he isn't as feared as Ichiro. Shawn Green throws real well, and more importantly, accurately. Yet, I wouldn't put him in Ichiro's class. Larry Walker was once a guy who would have ranked with Ichiro, I think. I'm not sure that still holds true.

I once saw Dante Bichette, of all people, throw Kirby Puckett out at the plate on a fly ball from medium deep right field to keep a game tied (I was at the game; Bichette then came up the next inning and, after fouling off a long series of Rick Aguilera pitches, rammed a three run homer over the centerfield fence on a high heater to win it) and it still ranks number one among throws I've seen from an Angels' outfielder in the literally thousands of games I've seen from them over the last 35-40 years. Yet, nobody thinks of Bichette as a particularly great outfielder (true enough, but early in his career he really could throw).

But then again, Barry Bonds doesn't have a cannon, yet he can put that baby on a dime and he gets rid of the ball real well, so he racks up his fair share of assists since runners are more willing to go on him.

But then again, Barry Bonds doesn't have a cannon, yet he can put that baby on a dime and he gets rid of the ball real well, so he racks up his fair share of assists since runners are more willing to go on him.

Seems to me that Bonds, like many left-fielders, wouldn't need a strong arm to rack up assists, just an accurate one.

It's a bit of an oversimplification to say that BP favours homeruns and walks over all else. There have been numerous articles pointing to the importance of team defense, for one.

They rave about players like Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter who are simply death to all flying things in CF, and point out how they can affect pitchers' performances. They've also run articles on catcher defense, and how many runs a good catcher can save on SBs (or CSs) alone.

So its a bit stereotypical to pigeonhole Sabermetric baseball analysts as being proponents of just the walk and the homerun.

Though I agree with you that a few of their writers (though Joe Sheehan I've found to be very balanced) sometimes exaggerate in their writings to get their point across. Ichiro is an incredible player, but theres no way he was AL MVP last year (A-Rod!).

> It's a bit of an oversimplification to say that BP
> favours homeruns and walks over all else.

Indeed it is. That's not what I said, though. I said the ideal Sabermetric hitter hits lots of home runs and draws lots of walks.

> There have
> been numerous articles pointing to the importance of
> team defense, for one.

Team defense, yes. Individual defense, less so.

>They rave about players
> like Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter who are simply
> death to all flying things in CF, and point out how
> they can affect pitchers' performances. They've also
> run articles on catcher defense, and how many runs a
> good catcher can save on SBs (or CSs)
> alone.

I did not say that BP does not consider defense an integral part of the game. I'm merely pointing out BP's priorities when evaluating players. They place an emphasis on non-defensible actions: home runs and walks. Is that a simplification? Yes. But I'm only attempting to demonstrate where BP is coming from. If someone wants the nitty-gritty details, they should buy the book or check out the website.

>So it's a bit stereotypical to
> pigeonhole Sabermetric baseball analysts as being
> proponents of just the walk and the
> homerun.

Stereotypical of whom? I'm not pigeonholing anybody. My point is only that BP favors the home run and the walk, neither of which Ichiro does very often (although last year was a particularly low year for walks for him...) So Baseball Prospectus's opinion of Ichiro will be lower than that of people who place importance to speed, stolen bases, and defense. It's completely obvious that Baseball Prospectus does not consider Ichiro as a great player. I'm simply explaining why they feel that way.

>Though I agree with you that a few of
> their writers (though Joe Sheehan I've found to be
> very balanced) sometimes exaggerate in their writings
> to get their point across.

I agree with you about Sheehan.

If I had one complaint about Sabermetric-oriented writing in general, I'd say that it's far too acerbic. Now, on one hand, this year's Baseball Prospectus made laugh out loud more than once. And sure, baseball writers have long history of being sarcastic and sardonic, going all the way back to Ring Lardner. And I also think it's a kind of legacy of Bill James. Consciously or unconsciously, I think many writers who are followers of the James' school of thought tend to imitate his style. But (and this is a purely personal feeling), I much prefer the style of Chiba Isao-san. He does fantastic Sabermetrically-based analysis without calling anyone stupid, or insulting players' knowledge of the game, or otherwise being harsh with his analysis.

> Ichiro is an incredible
> player, but theres no way he was AL MVP last year
> (A-Rod!).

The problem with the MVP is that the criteria are not even vaguely defined. They are not defined at all. Each writer must come up with his own definition of what an MVP is and who is most fitting.

Personally, I think team success is an important criterion. I would pick my MVP only among candidates whose teams went to the playoffs. Some disagree with this, which is fine. I don't think Barry was a bad choice in the NL. In fact, I think arguing over who was the MVP is rather silly. Out of, say, 350 or 400 players, generally one to five candidates emerge in each league. I think when you get down to that low a number, any of the candidates is deserving.