Red Sox Interested in Iguchi

Today's (December 6) Nikkan Sports mentions that while the Yankees have been quiety looking into Iguchi, the Red Sox have also expressed interest. With the Red Sox winning the World Series this past year, they have some chance as Iguchi has expressed that he'd like to play for a team with a chance at a Championship Ring. (Although, I the impression I have is that most Japanese think this means he's interested in the Yankees.)

As for playing shortstop, the limited fielding data I have on Iguchi appears to show that he's better suited for second. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that he's incapable of playing short. It's been a few years since he's defended the left side. Perhaps his fielding has matured a bit.

All I can say is that guys are generally moved from short to second because the team has somebody it thinks is better to play at short, often a better glove man. With that in mind, I'd be very wary of Iguchi as a shortstop. Also, his hitting seems to have blossomed when he moved to second.

When you consider the issues involved in going from NPB to MLB on top of all that, I think a team would be unwise at best to move Iguchi from second to short.

Jim Albright

An article in recent days mentioned that Iguchi moved from shortstop to second base in 2000 after shoulder surgery. Does this sound right? I was not following NPB in 2000.

SpoNichi (Sports Nippon), in their 2003 Meikan Profile of Iguchi (in Japanese), states that Iguchi had surgery on his right shoulder in the previous off season. The shoulder had been bothering Iguchi since the World Cup in 2001. This SpoNichi artical from September of 2002 states that Iguchi was not waiting for the end of the 2002 season to have his arm operated on.

So his surgery fell somewhere between September of 2002 and the beginning of the 2003 season.

It's true that the Red Sox are looking for a shortstop, but they are also trying to improve at second where Bellhorn isn't exactly a Hall of Famer. The shortstop position can be filled with a free agent for 1 year until prospect Hanley Ramirez is ready.

Although many would be alarmed by Bellhorn's AL leading totals in strikeouts, he is a passable defensive player, has a very affordable salary (something that the Red Sox, unlike the Yankess need to consider), and has great plate patience (something that current Red Sox management places particular emphasis on). As such, it shouldn't be surprising that, despite being a somewhat obsessed Red Sox fan, I have heard not a single bit of news suggesting the Red Sox are looking to replace Bellhorn. If the Red Sox sign Iguchi he will have to be able to play shorstop for at least one season. After that the Red Sox plan to bring up their top prospect (Hanley Ramirez) to play short. At that point Iguchi could be moved to second or third as both Bellhorn at second and Mueller at 3rd will be free agents after the 2005 season.

It's very logical that the Red Sox could be looking at Iguchi as they're looking for a second baseman, as so are the Cubs.

- If the Red Sox sign Iguchi he will have to be able to play shorstop for at least one season

If the Red Sox sign Iguchi he would play second base.

According to this report [Japan Ball] from the Kyodo News sports wire, it says that Iguchi is to enter talks with Red Sox GM Theo Esptein.

Barring a trade (which seems highly unlikely) the Red Sox will not sign Iguchi unless they think he can play short.

- Barring a trade (which seems highly unlikely) the Red Sox will not sign Iguchi unless they think he can play short.

The Red Sox won't sign Iguchi to play at shortstop, he would play at second base. If not, there is always another team that he will play for. With top prospect Hanley Ramirez set to play shortstop in "06" it would be detrimental to move Iguchi to short for just one year (2005) and then move him to a position other than second.

Anyway, Bellhorn isn't as great as put out to be, after his 2002 season his stats fell. I'm not saying that his stats will fall again, but Iguchi is a better option at second base than Bellhorn.

Based on their signing of Womack, I believe the Yankees are serious about signing Iguchi. Womack is not the answer as a starting 2B for the Yanks, but he is a good hedge if they want to sign Iguchi but are a bit nervous about his transition to MLB.

We may be belaboring this point of a bit, but what I am suggesting is not my personal opinion of Bellhorn and/or Iguchi, but an assesment of the situation from the perspective of the Red Sox. In today's game a player like Bellhorn (who is still in his slave years) is far more valuable than you seem to be suggesting. From an OPS perspective (a statistic that is the primary way people like Red Sox GM Theo Epstein judge production) he is the 2nd best second baseman in the AL. That type of OPS performance at that low a cost (even with some inconsitencies in his resume) is not likely to encourage Epstein to look for better alternatives (and a likely 4 million dollar salary for an unknown commoditty like Iguchi is unlikley to be seen as a better alternative anyway).

On the other hand, the Red Sox do need a shortstop this year, and very well might need a new second (and even third) basemen next year (as both Bellhorn and Mueller will then be free agents). You might be right that playing only one year at short before being then switched to second isn't fair to Iguchi, but if that doesn't appeal to him, he can always sign with another team (which is perhaps the most likely scenario anyway).

That said, if he is serious about playing for a winner (thus ruling out the shortstop-desperate, Japanese-friendly Mariners) he may need to be flexible. The Yankees just filled their second base hole today. With the Yankees now not an option, Igichi will most likley become more inteseted in the Sox (as a rich contender in need of an infielder). Another good option might be St. Louis (also certain to contend and, thanks to the Yankees, in need of a second basemen), though they are not likely to be able to spend as much as the big market BoSox.

Anyway, Bellhorn isn't as great as put out to be. After his 2002 season his stats fell. I'm not saying that his stats will fall again, but Iguchi is a better option at second base than Bellhorn.

I agree with most of what migsjp said, but I definitely have to disagree with John Brooks. There is no way that Iguchi is a better option than Bellhorn at second. Bellhorn batted with an OPS of .817 while playing a decent 2nd base. No, he's not a gold glove fielder, yes he strikes out a lot, but he comes at a low price (pretty sure he'll cost less than $2 million a year) and he was the second most productive (offensive) 2nd baseman in the league (higher than A. Soriano and Bret Boone).

Come on, John. Maybe some research before you start posting that Iguchi's a better player than Bellhorn. Don't think I'm one of those that think that Japanese baseball isn't even close to the level of the Majors. And don't get me wrong, Iguchi's a great player. But, it's hard to believe that you think Iguchi will post superior stats to that of Bellhorn's.

Just a small point, Hideki Matsui posted a .788 OPS in his first year with the Yankees, .40 points lower than Bellhorn. Not only will Iguchi's stats next year be lower than that of Bellhorn's this year, but he will also come at a higher price.

Obviously I don't know what the market for Iguchi is and who's going to be interested in him, but I would say it would take about $2 - 3 million for his negotiating rights, and about another $4 million for two years to get him signed. That makes him at least as twice as expensive as Bellhorn.

And, with Ichiro and Hideki taking all the spotlight, I doubt that the team that picks up Iguchi will have any success marketing their team to Japan (like the Mariners have done with Ichiro, and the Yankees with Matsui).

[...] I would say it would take about $2 - 3 million for his negotiating rights [...]

Actually, the Hawks are not posting Iguchi. They gave him is outright release so that he may pursue what ever course he chooses. So there will be no fee for negotiating rights (unless his agent is fishing for some under the table money).

The point is Bellhorn is an OBP player, nothing more, nothing less. If you're going to turn around and try to tell me that it's a guarantee that Bellhorn will have as good of a year he did in 2004, you can't be more wrong. After 2002, which was his career year until this year, he fell to near all-time lows, .646 OPS. Not exactly useful, if I would say so. We can probably expect Bellhorn to have OBP's in the 700's in 2005.

Even Iguchi can get an OBP over .700, as so did Kaz Matsui last year, so do some research yourself before you become hypocritical of me.

Bellhorn's fielding is good, while not a Gold-Glove candidate. I'll agree there. But I still do not agree with you. Boston, if they don't want Iguchi at second base, let St. Louis or the Cubs sign him. But Iguchi is still a better option than Bellhorn.

My own guess is Iguchi, once he adjusts, will perform around his 2004 major league conversion, which means a .832 OPS.

Jim Albright

I meant to say OPS in my post, my mistake. I expect Bellhorn to have OPS in the 700's which Iguchi can definetly achieve or even do better.

Trying to keep this on topic, how can we expect Bellhorn again to have that good of a year, or that great of a OBP? If the Red Sox want to sign Iguchi it would be in the Red Sox and Iguchi's best interest for him to play at second base, then trade Mark Bellhorn. Bellhorn, just because he is still in the pre-arbitration years, is nowhere near as valuable as Iguchi.

It would also be detrimental, in my opinion, for the Red Sox to move Iguchi to shortstop, then turn around in 2006 and move him again to another position except second base.

Iguchi is a clear winner over Bellhorn. Mark strikes out at a far higher rate than Iguchi has the last two seasons, and Iguchi will play better at second and steal 30 bases or maybe more. The idea, though, of putting Iguchi at short is not viable, imho. In Fenway, Iguchi would rake.

And just to throw some fuel on the fire here, there is a rumor being put forth by one of the New York papers that has Doug Mientkieiwcz going to the Mets in exchange for Kazuo Matsui. (There is also one that would have the Mets moving Matsui and Piazza to Boston for Manny Ramirez, but I don't think that is going to happen.) So you could end up with an all Japanese keystone combo in Boston.

Btw, how about Roberto Alomar perhaps going to Daiei for $3 million? This could smell a bit like the Jesse Barfield experience at Yomiuri, but we'll see.

- Btw, how about Roberto Alomar perhaps going to Daiei for $3 million?

Roberto Alomar is beyond useful and isn't worth $3,000,000. Alomar's numbers since 2002 have been below average. Alomar has batted .266, .258, and .263 in the seasons since 2002, and had OPS of .708, .682, and .713. Alomar is 37 years old next year, and only played 56 games last year with Arizona and the White Sox. In my opinion, at the age of 37 and in Alomar's current state, I say $3 million is too much for Alomar.

I can't imagine any MLB team seriously looking at Iguchi as a starter - especially following the Kaz experiment in New York. At best, he might be considered as a major league backup.

I'm a Red Sox fan, and not a fan of Bellhorn, but most folks in this town think that he should have won the World Series MVP award, and MLB teams are just not at a place where they will sacrifice offense for defence. Second base has become a postion much more driven by offence in the past few years and teams just aren't willing to dump the proven for someone who hasn't faced MLB pitching or particularly hard slides into second.

Plan on Iguchi staying in Japan.

- I can't imagine any MLB team seriously looking at Iguchi as a starter - especially following the Kaz experiment in New York. At best, he might be considered as a major league backup.

Iguchi is defintely a major league second baseman. How can you say otherwise that he isn't a major league second baseman, and please, how would you get the idea that he will be at best a major league backup?

MLB teams are just not at a place where they will sacrifice offense for defence.

How are you in position to rate Iguchi's defense based on Kaz Matsui's fielding last year, when not all of Matsui's fielding problems can be contributed to him? Are you a MLB scout? Until Iguchi plays in the majors you can't judge his fielding.

- Plan on Iguchi staying in Japan.

Don't count on it. He was released by the Hawks, so it's very likely he will be in the majors and a good starting second baseman.

Guess the Red Sox weren't as interested in Iguchi as they were Renteria. [Link - MLB.com]

It's very unlikely the Red Sox want Iguchi to play at shortstop. They want him to play second base, or if not, he will go to a team that needs a second baseman, like the Cubs or Cardinals. Iguchi is an upgrade over Bellhorn regardless of what some people believe.

I doubt that Iguchi will end up with the Red Sox now that they have signed Renteria. Furthermore, Red Sox management is very happy with Mark Bellhorn. Bellhorn strikes out a lot and has very little speed, but these things are not critical to having a great offense. The Red Sox led all of MLB in runs last year with 949 (Yankees were second with 897), but they were 21st in stolen bases and had the third most strikeouts.

The positives of Bellhorn are his excellent ability to get walks and hit for power. He had the highest on-base percentage of any second baseman in the American League, as well as the fourth best slugging percentage. The Sox believe (as do I) that Bellhorn is an excellent offensive second baseman, and he is worth much more than he will be paid next year. He's had two great years out of the last three, and he's on a team that values his greatest skills. The Sox have no real reason to take an unknown player ahead of Bellhorn.

That's not to say that Iguchi will be worse than Bellhorn. We just don't know what he'll do when he comes to MLB. Japanese hitters tend to see their power numbers go down in the first year of a transition to MLB. The Sox won't spend much money on an unknown player when they have a good, inexpensive alternative in Bellhorn already in place.

So where will Iguchi end up? Womack is a terrible solution for the Yankees at second base, but he's still their guy for 2005. They have Jeter at shortstop, so there's no room in their infield. The Cubs recently re-signed Todd Walker to play second and Nomar Garciaparra at short, so there's no room in their infield either. The Seattle Mariners are in need of a shortstop as well, but they weren't contenders last year. The Mariners have made a big effort to get better soon, but it's doubtful that they will be in place to contend for the World Series next year.

The St. Louis Cardinals need both a second baseman and a shortstop, so it makes sense for Iguchi to go to the Cardinals. Iguchi's salary demands will probably be in their price range, too. I'll guess that Iguchi will end up in St. Louis if he plays in MLB next year.

I disagree that the Yanks are set with Womack. I highly doubt they promised him the starting second base job when they signed him. They don't have an infield backup under contract (Wilson and Cairo are gone) and $2 million is about right for the Yanks for a backup infielder. I'd bet the Yanks sign Iguchi and give him every opportunity to win the second base job with Womack as a backup plan if Iguchi doesn't cut it.

How much does everyone think Iguchi will command per year? $3-4 million?

Going on his current figures, he is earning US$ 2,301,701.73 (xe.com) in the NPB. So if he was going solely for money and not to play a better quality brand of ball for arguments sake, I think a figure over $3.5 million would be ideal when you factor in the challenges of a new culture, homesickness, etc. Anything less, he may as well stay in Japan.

The Red Sox intend to pass on signing Iguchi. Though I wish the article would do more researching - they have Iguchi as a shortstop. [Link - Boston.com]

This Japan Times article from today (December 28, 2004) says that several teams have expressed interest in Iguchi, with the other Sox from the second city being specifically named. Iguchi says that the White Sox owner wants to meet him.

The White Sox current 2B man is Willie Harris [MLB.com]. (Juan Uribe also played second base this year, but since Jose Valentin is no longer with the Sox, he will presumably move to shortstop, where he also played. Harris also played 30 games in the outfield.)

This Nikkan Sports article [Link - via Yahoo! News] (In Japanese) names five major league teams that are interested in acquiring Iguchi's services: the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Cardinals.

The Yankees are said to be the odds-on favorite. The Boss himself is said to have an appointment with agent Richard Moss after the New Year to negotiate on Iguchi. Although there are currently no formal offers on the table, Iguchi plans to visit the U.S. in mid-January, and make a final decision, after hearing offers.

I'm not so sure Boston is that interested as they said they intend to pass on signing Iguchi. St. Louis is rumored to sign Roberto Alomar at second soon. So that, might take St. Louis out of the running leaving New York (AL), White Sox, and the Angels. [Link - Boston.com]

According to the New York Post, second baseman Tadahito Iguchi, whom the Yankees had some interest in signing, is close to reaching an agreement with the White Sox.