Orix Intelligence

That might be the first time I've ever heard "Orix" and "intelligence" in the same sentence.

But seriously, there's no doubt they're badly mismanaged. They're like the Royals: hopelessly bad team in a great park (well, at least when Orix plays in Kobe). Other than Greg LaRocca's breakout season, I see nothing exciting about the Buffaloes. Tuffy's getting older and might want to walk, and a lot of the other contributors are also eligible for free agency.

Orix are not particularly bothered about the baseball team. It's used mainly for brand name recognition not as a viable sporting entity. It's old style Japanese company sports team management, and so the front office is old style Japanese management as well.

If Collins has patience, he could help start the development of some key prospects. He's definitely the best thing the team has going.

Orix has a terrible front office, but Hanshin has made its fair share of blunders in the past. We can't forget that signing of Kataoka and all the terrible foreigners they brought in over the years. I remember reading a list of players they traded away in recent times who ended up being fairly decent. Sekikawa, Kitagawa, Tsuboi, Okihara, Kida, etc. Kitagawa and Tsuboi put up some very good years for the Buffaloes and Fighters. Kida was basically just given away to Hiroshima, who will likely have him replace Arai as a full time first baseman.

Kida isn't going to be a replacement for Arai in production, and IIRC Arai was mostly third. Kataoka was actually a very good signing by Hanshin and pretty much guaranteed the 2003 victory. Later inability to use him properly caused the under-performance, but his fielding was always first rate. A lot of Tigers fans actually preferred seeing him at third than Imaoka.

The front office, it is true, have been a major problem (see Shinjo), but this has been less recently in evidence. Okada is to blame for the more recent decisions and I would say the under-performance by many players.

Telling Kazuhiro Kiyohara that he is wanted back in 2008 after not playing at all this year and "earning" a reported 250 million yen is another perfect example of the lack of any intelligence in the Orix Buffaloes' organization.

I think if they got rid of Kiyohara, you'd see their crowds become non-existent. They're already on life support as far as fans go. Getting rid of Kiyohara as the face of the team would destroy them.

In response to Christopher, I was implying that Kurihara go back to third and Kida go to first. Though Kurihara is a terrible third baseman, Arai also wasn't much with the glove. I can't imagine Hiroshima going with anyone else at third, unless they somehow get a trade or sign some foreign bat.

I don't see how you can defend the signing of Kataoka. Even his best year was below expectations. He ate up salary until he finally retired. I think anyone else would agree that it was a terrible signing.

Actually no - many Tigers fans have a massive affection for Kataoka. As far as they are concerned he was a major factor in the 2003 victory and after that is seen as irrelevant. In fact, most of them blame Okada for misuse of him (and other players). He was always admired for his fielding skills and 100% commitment to the side. He is still very very popular and you will still see fans wearing Kataoka shirts.

Kiyohara is due back next season but he is not going to bring the fans in. My puzzlement is why Orix persist in Kansai when the market isn't there. They don't have any marketing strategy at all beyond relying on Kiyohara. To be honest it seems as if practically no one in the region is interested in Orix at all.

Christopher, as always, you ruin a good case by exaggeration. Of course Orix has fans in Kansai. Of course they're not relying solely on Kiyohara. In fact, the front of their official catalog for 2007 features Collins as the main guy, with Kiyohara's picture the same size as Kitagawa's, Mizuguchi's, and a pitcher I'm not familiar with (the number is obscured).

I live in Osaka, and I've seen numerous posters on the subway featuring a group of players with Collins in the middle. The official stores at Kyocera Dome and in Kobe don't push Kiyohara any more than the other marquee players.

You're right in implying that they don't get the same results from their marketing as the Tigers, but they do the best they can considering the huge popularity of the Tigers down here. I'm on their mailing list and they run promotions, special offers, they've got some great merchandise for sale at their outlets - comparable to anything the other teams put out.

So while you make some good points, your view from Tokyo is probably not as comprehensive as you think it is.

I am not saying that they don't have fans in Kansai. What I said was it "seems as if" there aren't any Orix fans - a different point entirely. No exaggeration there.

What I did find interesting is the focus on Collins now, previously it was Kiyohara and Nakamura. Which line are these posters appearing on? The Kintetsu?

- I am not saying that they don't have fans in Kansai. What I said was it "seems as if" there aren't any Orix fans...

Well I can't see that there's a whole lot of difference. But OK, I'll accept that what you seemed to be saying wasn't actually what you were intending to say.

The posters have been around for quite a while and appear on the subway system, as I said - not Kintetsu (which is not part of the subway system). I pass one every day on my way to work at Minami-morimachi.

The difference lies in how things are seen. When I say that "it seems as if," what I am referring to is the invisibility of the club in the perceptions of most of the general public in Kansai. This doesn't mean that people don't know about Orix, just that it doesn't register. An accurate characterization of the problem would be, "Orix. ... So? ..." Many people don't even feel the need to have an opinion on the club.

Overcoming this lack of register is the greatest challenge for the club, and unfortunately posters in the subway are not going to do this. They can be screened out easily. Orix needs to have a much more imaginative and creative marketing campaign aimed at, initially, getting the club profile raised and at offering an alternative to the Tigers. Unfortunately, the people who run Orix seem to lack the ability to produce anything like that. You mention the efforts, but something beyond these are needed.

Look, you said: "They don't have any marketing strategy at all beyond relying on Kiyohara." I just wanted to point out that Orix does, in fact, have a marketing strategy that doesn't rely on Kiyohara. That's why I mentioned the posters and catalog. I made no comment about their effectiveness.

But there's a lot they do besides the posters and catalog that doesn't appear on your own personal radar, because you don't live down here, you're not on their mailing list, you don't go to the games, and you don't shop at the stores. And really, how would you know whether they're doing creative or imaginative things if you haven't even seen the posters?

Yes, but posters, catalogs, and mailing lists are not a marketing strategy. They are basic advertising, but that is all. Their strategy was to rely on Kiyohara and Nakamura to pull the crowds in, and that failed with them shooting themselves in the foot over Nakamura. Kiyohara's constant injuries didn't help either.

Their stores stock Tigers goods as well as Orix goods, otherwise they would make a loss. The ratio at Kyocera Dome is 50% Tigers goods, which is not encouraging. Crowds at Tigers/Buffaloes games are below average for Tigers games (this could be the big "Kansai Derby," but isn't). Their big chance was to consolidate the discarded Kintetsu Buffaloes and BlueWave fans, and this didn't happen.

I appreciate that you are a Buffaloes fan, but that shouldn't blind you to the reality. Their front office is among the most reactionary and out of date of Japanese baseball front offices. All they see the team as is a brand recognition vehicle for the parent company. It is not seen as a potential profit making organization, and thus does not have a profit making marketing strategy.

I am in Osaka quite frequently and I have a lot of contacts there, so I am quite aware of the situation. The Buffaloes are basically invisible, and as I said, they don't register. I have seen the posters but had forgotten them - they were that unmemorable.

Christopher, your posts are very much like the Orix team strategy. You may want to consider applying for a job there, just think, you could see Kiyohara everyday then. You could re-live the glories of the YG's past together.

Regarding Okada, he got the Tigers into the playoffs after your dead certain pronouncement that he was taking the Tigers to the cellar. In the CL Ochiai obviously is coach of year for his masterful dominance of the Tigers, the Giants and the Hamsters in the post-season. But Okada is runner up for doing so well with so little.

I am not sure I understand your first paragraph. What are you trying to say?

Not everyone shares your view of Okada. In fact the general view is third place - so what? The playoff performance was particularly underwhelming. If they did give a runners up prize it would go to Hara who got the Giants the pennant. Okada is now on notice that he has to improve things next season or be out. He is and always will be an ordinary manager.

- If they did give a runners up prize it would go to Hara who got the Giants the pennant. Okada is now on notice that he has to improve things next season or be out. He is and always will be an ordinary manager.

Hara? He had an all-star line up and was expected by all to win the pennant. So what? If Okada had half the bought talent of Hara then he may have won the Series. Fact is that you called the Tigers for last place and Okada took an injured, under-talented team to a higher level than you could imagine. Other posters have indicated he has done that his entire career.

Hara? He was fired a few years ago by the Giants.

Hara still had to get there - nothing is guaranteed (as my prediction showed). Horiuchi had an all star side as well and couldn't deliver. No, give credit where credit is due. Hara did a good job. Incidentally, he was fired because he clashed with Nabetsune, not because of under-performance.

Consider the performance of the Tigers against the Carp - not so good. Okada couldn't affect that. The fact is the Tigers could have won the pennant if they had had a few more victories against the Carp. This is due to Okada, and the fact that he is on notice would suggest that others are not so impressed by his performance as you are.

Actually, the numbers in general suggest Okada was a lot less of an idiot this year than most people take him for. When a team scores 518 runs and allows 561 but comes out with a mind-boggling 74-66-4 record, someone had to be doing something right - managing to pull the closer wins and lose the blowouts effectively.

It's based on something called Pythagorean win expectation, but even if you can't understand that, surely the idea that a team that gives up more runs than it scores will probably lose more games than it wins should not be that crazy a concept to understand, right? Nanbanjin already calculated these for the PL/CL several months ago and pointed out that Hanshin was incredibly lucky and turned their bullpen strength into essentially a 9-game swing of the standings.

With an incompetent manager, this sort of thing doesn't happen. Someone's got to know when to put the right people in to do the job and when to just let it go.

(Note, I personally don't like Hanshin, or Okada for that matter, and I realize that arguing with Christopher is sort of like sending messages to another planet, but numbers speak louder than words sometimes.)

I would pose this questions. Numbers are all very well, but what happens when you have the numbers and still manage to lose the games that matter?

- I would pose this questions. Numbers are all very well, but what happens when you have the numbers and still manage to lose the games that matter?

Here is a question for you Christopher. If half a chicken laid half an egg in half a day how long would it take a monkey with a wooden leg to kick the seeds out of a dill pickle?

If you look deeply into your above post you may find the answer.

Deanna,

Thanks for showing with numbers for what I have been repeating to the cricket crowd, i.e. Christopher. It's a miracle, really, that the Tigers did make the playoffs given the awful hitting and lackluster starting pitching. Okada was a magician this year, apparently something he has been able to do all his coaching career. For that he deserves special honor.

I am still in awe of Ochiai however, he really learned his lesson from last year's loss to your Hammies. He was a man among boys in the playoffs, more masterful that Valentine when he won it all two years ago.

I read Moneyball a few months back, great sports book. Do you see any Japanese teams really using stats like the A's or Sox are doing in the MLB? Bobby V. claims he invented that approach years ago, but I am not sure he really adheres to the numbers discipline. He however clearly did have the book on the Tigers in the Japan Series that he swept.

If we look at the post season results, Okada hasn't won a single game. These are the games that matter. Likewise the eight game losing streak after the twelve game winning streak. Games that matter. All of Deanna's figures are irrelevant in this situation. Okada has proven he cannot win the games that really matter.

That doesn't make him an incompetent manager, just an ordinary one. It certainly doesn't make him a brilliant manager given that his coaching staff must bear some of the responsibility for the poor pitching and batting.

Concentration of effort and that little extra where it is needed is what is lacking. These factors are what makes Okada an ordinary manager, and nothing you can say will change that essential point.

Wait, so winning all the games to get to the post-season doesn't matter at all?

If he hadn't won so many "games that didn't matter," the Tigers wouldn't even be in the post-season. They would have been 66-74 instead of 74-66 and Yokohama would have been 74-66ish instead (since Hanshin was 14-10 vs. Yokohama, obviously some of those wins that didn't matter were over Yokohama) and been in the playoffs.

I think Okada managed like crap in 2005 for the entire year, yet his team steamrolled itself to a pennant before falling over in the Series. (Of course, you called Okada's management in 2005 excellent.) But I really don't think Okada was a bad manager this year, and the fact that the Tigers got to the playoffs at all was an indication of that.

I know you so desperately need to always be right, but sometimes, Christopher, you really could benefit from trying to see other people's points of view. Haven't you ever wondered why it's always you versus so many people in all of these threads? Could that, maybe, indicate that maybe some other ideas contrary to yours might have some merit?

Would you also like to try to convince me that Trey Hillman is a mediocre, ordinary manager because his team didn't win all of the "games that matter" this year? Because, by your argument, Hillman was also completely mediocre, and managing a team that can't hit a baseball with a bat to the Japan Series isn't a special feat at all if they don't win it.

(Yeah, I know, I don't know why I bother either. "It wastes your time and annoys the pig.")

Deanna - I am not saying Okada is a bad manager. I am saying he is an ordinary manager. You should read the posts before commenting. There is a difference between bad and ordinary. My argument with zman is that he thinks Okada is a superb manager - I do not.

At the moment playoffs are not important to most Central League fans and this may be something that is difficult to comprehend coming from an American background so recently. The general view is - so what? They didn't win the pennant, they didn't get to the Japan Series - what did they do? When Hanshin's owner and president put Okada on notice that he should improve next year it's clear that your view doesn't really have any validity in this environment.

Try to understand that just because playoffs in America are important they are not so in Japan. Maybe they will become so in the future but at the moment they are just a step on the path to the real trophy. Remember also that Hillman didn't win everything but he won something. Okada won nothing, and that is an essential difference.

OK Christopher, if I can distract you from your love of wickets and over and unders (whatever).

In the space of few posts you first say that Hanshin lost the games that matter, the playoff games, and now just above you lecture Deanna, who knows more about this sport of baseball than you ever will, that the playoffs really don't mattter at all. Which is it? The playoffs either matter or they don't.

You can save all of us a lot of time and effort and just debate with yourself. Now that would be entertaining, would not make any sense at all most likely, but at least that way you may win a few encounters. You certainly don't now with the reason based crowd who do not follow cricket but love the game of baseball.

I think that there is a misunderstanding here. You and Deanna look at Japanese baseball from a non-Japanese perspective and expect it to conform to your perceptions of the game. It doesn't. I have also noticed a tendency to simplify, and in your case, missing background knowledge about the Tigers.

The playoffs here are seen as only a step. They are not the main prize. What you and Deanna seem to be arguing is that the playoffs are a main prize and that Okada is to be congratulated for reaching them. This is not the view shared by the majority of Tigers fans or the organization. It was interesting to see the contrast in approach with the American manager Hillman and the Japanese manager Ochiai. On winning the playoff series Hillman had the full tossing ceremony, Ochiai had nothing. The playoffs are games that matter but they are not the be all and end all, they are just a stage. It may be that they do eventually become a prize, but at the moment Miyazaki-owner's comment is the general view ("We can't hold a victory sale for third place in the playoffs"). Both of you should try and look at the Japanese perspective.

You know, the funniest part about Christopher is that every single time I think he can't possibly do more stereotyping and make more audacious claims to understand the thought processes of every single person on the planet, he completely outdoes himself.

Christopher, I'm going to say this again: stop making claims that you understand every person. You don't. How dare you claim that I don't try to look at this game from a Japanese perspective? What gives you any right to say that or to even think that?

I never said that reaching the playoffs are a main prize, anyway. If you're going to tell me to read what you're saying, why don't you read what I'm saying? I said that Okada won a lot more games than he had any right to. And that there's no such thing as "games that don't matter." If the Tigers hadn't lost so many "games that didn't matter" in the first place, they would have gotten the CL Championship. Since you're insinuating that winning the playoffs isn't a big deal if you don't win the 1st place title, then the playoffs weren't even the "games that matter."

I would wager that my thinking is more Japanese than yours is, in that aspect. Every game counts. If you're the type of person who only cares about the playoff and championship games, then you're the bandwagon-following American, not me, thanks. I advise you to go sit in the stands and talk to some fans of second-division teams about why they love baseball sometime, seriously. Or is it just much easier for you to claim you know what they think without actually talking to them?

(Though in reality I continue to have wishful thinking that Christopher is just an English-translating forum-reading machine that failed the Turing Test, unleashed on the world by a bunch of rabid Hanshin fan programmers.)

- It may be that they do eventually become a prize, but at the moment Miyazaki-owner's comment is the general view ("We can't hold a victory sale for third place in the playoffs").

Actually, Daiei had a congratulatory sale for SoftBank reaching in the playoffs. The former Daiei fight song played over and over throughout the store, with "SoftBank" substituted where it used to say "Daiei."

Furthermore, Mikitani is not your typical Japanese owner. He's passed on the "owner" position to someone involved with baseball so that the baseball team may be run like as an individual entity - like a baseball team - and he can go back to managing his Internet business.

Playing whack a mole at your ideas isn't what I want to do. I agree with much of what you're saying, but your examples aren't making any converts. What you see as a brilliant marketing strategy by Hanshin, I see as a culmination of social forces in the Kansai area that stretch back to the beginnings of professional baseball in Japan.

I think that Okada-kantoku works on rote routine, not even understanding why things work when they work, or able to change what really needs changing. It took seeing Kida traded and doing well for Okada (or his handlers?) to realize that they had talent at ni-gun.

However, I'm open to the explanations that Deanna presented. My personal view of Okada hasn't changed, but I'm willing to accept that there's something that I'm missing in his management of the team. But because I don't know what that something is, I'll cling to my view but no try to force it on others (at least not until I figure out what it is that can explain what Deanna found). And, no, social differences doesn't explain the numbers.

Anyway, Christopher, I'm glad that you've volunteered to write regularly about the Tigers. Controversy sells (figuratively speaking), and there's no doubt that controversy follows your writings. What I would really like to see more of in your writing, though, is presenting things in a way that everything is complete - where you don't have anything more to say on the matter - the first time. Answer questions, but leave objections for 24 hours. I know you have a need to defend your position, and I'd be disappointed if you didn't. But by spending 12 to 24 hours to mill over an objection helps separate the emotional response from a more clear response - covering just the objection, without repeating your argument that failed the first time. (You've said several times that "Okada-kantoku has been put on notice." By whom, i.e. what authority? And what does that mean to Okada, the front office, and/or fans? This statement is not self evident, yet you've said it a number of times as though it summed everything up.)

My apologies for the confusion. Both Miyazaki-owner and Minami-president have gone on record as saying that Okada will have to improve next season to retain his job. Minami-president spoke most recently to Okada earlier this month. In fact, Okada was switched to one year renewable contracts in 2006 and was warned during the 2007 season that the team's performance was not acceptable (this was Miyazaki-owner after the first eight game losing streak).

On Hanshin's marketing strategy - they arrived at it by accident. No one planned this and the intelligent part is them realizing what they had stumbled on.

- Their stores stock Tigers goods as well as Orix goods, otherwise they would make a loss. The ratio at Kyocera Dome is 50% Tigers goods, which is not encouraging.

Well you obviously don't know much about how the store works at Kyocera Dome, do you? They don't normally feature 50% Tigers merchandise. They fill the store up with whatever will sell, so on the day you visited (obviously for a Tigers game) it was good strategy to fill the place up with Tigers goods, don't you think? On the days they play other teams, they display the other team's merchandise. I know because I've seen it. And their approach seems sensible to me.

- I am in Osaka quite frequently and I have a lot of contacts there, so I am quite aware of the situation.

I don't doubt you know more than the average Joe, but all I'm saying is that as a Tigers fan living in Tokyo, there's no way you could know the complete situation with Orix. You admitted you couldn't remember the posters; you showed that you don't know the true situation with how the Kyocera Dome store operates.

I'm not going to try and tell you how things work in Tokyo (even though I travel there a lot and have contacts there) - because I don't live there. And I'm not even defending Orix, believe it or not. I agree that much of your criticism is justified. They don't do very well at selling the team on the whole. But they do some things reasonably well, including merchandising.

The bottom line is, stick to what you know. It's so easy to tell that you don't know much about how Orix operates down here, so don't pretend that you do.

- The bottom line is, stick to what you know. It's so easy to tell that you don't know much about how Orix operates down here, so don't pretend that you do.

Orix are actually an easy club to figure out. They are of secondary importance in Osaka and always will be. They are also pretty clueless about marketing and how to exploit the market. This is the reality and anyone who knows anything about marketing would realize this. Maybe I'm wrong, but you don't actually seem to know much about the subject, otherwise you wouldn't write the above.

Orix doesn't have any strategy now, and really doesn't have any idea how to improve their position in the market. Their best bet is actually to leave Kansai entirely and move to another region where there is no competition. Currently they are being steamrollered by the Tigers' marketing machine and the situation is set to continue. Tigers marketing is now almost entirely bottom up, and this is almost impossible to beat. Tigers shops never display anything but Tiger's goods because they don't need to. Having a broad product range also does not equal good marketing because you still have to get people to buy the products. Orix cannot do this and their games are always under-sold.

Furthermore they failed miserably to exploit the merger of BlueWave and Buffaloes - a golden opportunity to increase support. They cannot bring people in or increase their crowds. Even at Tigers/Orix matches crowds fall below average.

Don't delude yourself that these people know what to do or how to do it. The original poster, Dylan, had it exactly right. They were clueless when they worked for Buffaloes and BlueWave and they have continued to be clueless since then. Having a catalog and nice products is not a marketing strategy. It really doesn't matter how Orix operates because they don't have anything resembling a marketing strategy. And whether one lives in Tokyo or Osaka will not change that essential fact.

I agree, Orix will always be second in the Osaka market to Hanshin. But they could possibly have a better team than the Tigers this year. Despite the criticism of the moves made last winter, they were necessary moves to make this team younger and better for the future.

Neither Tani nor Nakamura wanted to be there. They would have been cancers with Collins running the show and they would have been mediocre at best. By them moving to other teams they had to prove that they could still play. That's why they did well. Look for them to be mediocre again. Besides, wouldn't you rather have LaRocca than Nori? And I think Rhodes and LaRocca were making less money combined than what Nakamura was. So I think that was a great move.

As for the Hayakawa trade, that's still out there. I mean, Tsuji is a good catcher and could end up being the Orix starting catcher, so let's not call that a bad trade yet. However, Orix desperately needed a center fielder, and Hayakawa was an Orix killer last year.

I think the move Orix needs to make that they haven't is get rid of Kiyohara. He's old, takes a roster spot, and doesn't perform enough for what he makes. Take that money and sign a Wada or someone that can actually produce and stay healthy in the middle of the lineup. Could you imagine Wada hitting after LaRocca and Rhodes?

Other than that, Orix got younger with the likes of Sakaguchi, Kaneko, Kishida, and Ohbiki, who all look to be strong players for the future. I look for Sakaguchi to provide that lead-off help Orix really needs.

Meanwhile the rotation looks to be strong with Kawagoe, Hirano, Davey, Kaneko, and Kishida. They also have a nice closer in Katoh. There's no reason why he can't save at least 30.

Look for Orix to make a push for the playoffs under Collins. He made a nice improvement with this team last year and they should be better this year.

I think Orix will be better under Collins. They don't need a shortstop. They have Ohbiki. He looked very good as a rookie. Collins has already said Katoh will go back to being a setup man. He blew too many one run leads.

As for the trades, Tsuji sat in the minors almost all year while Hayakawa was an all-star. Kamoshide and Nagata sat in the minors all year long while Tani was an all-star. LaRocca could have played second while Nakamura played third.

The only deal that was good was Yoshii for Katoh. Yoshii retired. Katoh could be a stater or a long reliever.

I'm not saying the players Orix got won't be good in the future. We have to wait and see.

With LaRocca, Rhodes, and Davey back, there are 2 openings for gaijin players. Any rumors to who might be joining the herd? I was thinking they could use some help at the top of the lineup. Isn't JP out there, too? Possibly one more power hitter or even a shortstop? What do you think?

News is that they want to sign Alex Cabrera.

Yeah, the rumor is that they want Cabrera. But if you are the Orix Buffaloes - and we are supposed to be talking about their cumulative intelligence here - do you really want to pay several hundred million yen for an injury-prone Cabrera when you already have to pay 250 million yen for the walking wounded, Kazuhiro Kiyohara? Or perhaps they are already conceding the fact that Kiyohara will just be a multi-million dollar pitchman for another year.

How much of a pay cut would Cabrera be willing to take from his reported 600 million take in 2007? Would he accept only half? Less? Doubtful.

But then again, it's not like any MLB team is going to guarantee him a few million bucks for next season, so if he really wants to play another year or two and make the big bucks, I guess he'll have to stay here.

Maybe Orix should go this route. Add Cabrera and perhaps Jeremy Powell to go along with the other 3 foreigners they are retaining from 2007. Spending a lot of money on guys who are getting old, and a few of them who have long histories of injuries, though.

Look, Christopher, don't get me wrong, I've never believed they've done a good job marketing themselves, so I'm in agreement on you there. But even you admit that their main problem is the Tigers. Yes, Hanshin does steamroll them. Always have and always will. But to call them clueless is rather arrogant, don't you think? I know some of these guys and they're doing the best they can. As you admit, Hanshin is the real obstacle, so you've got to concede that it's not entirely Orix's fault.

Frankly speaking, they were better off as either a Kobe team or an Osaka team. Now they've lost their identity and fall between the two cities and have become neither. Which is probably the opposite of what you had in mind regarding the exploitation of the two sets of fan bases. I didn't think the marriage would ever work, and I was right about that.

You say I know nothing about the subject. Well I've demonstrated I'm more aware of their grassroots efforts than you are. You don't even know the first thing about the various mail outs, membership campaigns, sales strategies, advertising, and other promotions. And because you're ignorant about these, you dismiss them as being unimportant. They need a real marketing strategy, you say. Well apart from moving to a new city, or nuking Koshien, what would you suggest precisely? I mean precisely. Not something regurgitated from a marketing theory textbook - real solutions.

IMHO, the best strategy I can think of is develop or buy some good players and win a pennant or two. But that's less modern marketing and more plain old ball club management. Certainly they haven't done a good job here either. But that's what they need to concentrate on.

Kintetsu and the old Orix lost money hand over fist, and the new Orix is doing the same. Nothing has changed. Because the parent company sees them as a brand identification vehicle there is no incentive to change.

Hanshin are a problem for them, it is true, but not as much a problem as their own ineptitude. Once you start talking to most Kansai people about Orix you find a general disinterest and an attitude of "so what?" This, in itself, should tell you that they are not good at marketing.

As for their grassroots efforts, "preaching to the converted" would be an appropriate term. They do not represent a marketing strategy at all, but just the usual advertising. If I were to design a marketing campaign it would be based around the slogan "There is an alternative>" It's a differentiation from the Hanshin strategy to pull in the non-Hanshin fans, and this is important. There is a sizable portion of people in the region who do not follow Hanshin. Orix have failed to reach out to these.

I mentioned they had a golden opportunity when the merger took place but blew it. This is the market they need to tap - also pulling in dormant Giant's fans if they can. However, this kind of campaign is very expensive because you have to raise awareness and create a very different image. Posters in the subway will not do it - for a start, any poster campaign needs to be massive with simple posters in primary colors. Couple this with spending on magazines, TV, and Internet and you might be onto something. Use of celebrities also needs to be massive. Dump their old tired players and build a younger, more dynamic image.

If they are successful, then and only then, they can start to think about the other stuff. They need to establish a much bigger fan base before they do all the other things. Remember, Hanshin are able to draw support from the whole of Kansai - Orix should aim for the same whilst differentiating their image.

However, I don't think that they are able to carry this off, which is why they should hire some new marketing people and move to another area. Winning pennants would help only as a temporary measure. It would give a spike, but that is all. The strategy needs to be in place before then.

A lot of what you say makes sense. I wouldn't accuse them of "ineptitude" though, especially as you concede the difficulty of being in the same market as the Tigers.

Just a few comments, though:

- Because the parent company sees them as a brand identification vehicle there is no incentive to change.

And your source for this revelation is?

- Once you start talking to most Kansai people about Orix you find a general disinterest and an attitude of "so what?"

And how many of the 24 million Kansai people have you actually started to talk to? Could it be your circle of acquaintances is relatively smaller than a majority of the population of the region?

- Posters in the subway will not do it - for a start, any poster campaign needs to be massive with simple posters in primary colors. Couple this with spending on magazines, TV, and Internet and you might be onto something.

Yes, and you haven't seen the posters, so again, how would you know what they looked like or where they are? And considering you've never seen anything else they've done, how do you know for a fact that they haven't spent money on magazine, TV, or Internet marketing?

- Use of celebrities also needs to be massive. Dump their old tired players and build a younger, more dynamic image.

Yes, and "massive" use of celebrities is massively expensive. And the dumping of old, tired players is something they need to do for good old fashioned baseball reasons. Any marketing spin-off is a bonus.

- They need to establish a much bigger fan base before they do all the other things.

Well we could argue all day about this point, but I think you're wrong - it's the other way round. Baseball is first, fan base comes second. Don't worry about trying to refute that, though - it's a different approach and I wouldn't expect a marketing whiz to understand anyway.

- I don't think that they are able to carry this off, which is why they should hire some new marketing people and move to another area.

And if you're right, that new area is ...? If it's basic to their survival I assume you have a few good locations in mind. That is, after all, what I asked you initially. What would you do - precisely? You still haven't answered that.

Well I have to put in my 2 cents. Everyone is thinking about the now. What about in the when Ichiro was with Orix and winning championships? I might be wrong, but wasn't Hanshin loosing a lot of games then? If Orix starts winning a lot of games and is in line for the playoffs, don't you think more people will come to games? Just give Collins a chance! Hillman did not win his first year. I don't think Orix needs to move, they just need to win.

- And your source for this revelation is?

Just take a look at the type of company involved. There is no synergy between Orix (a finance and leasing company) and the baseball club. They are two unconnected businesses and you cannot really link them. If you look at Hanshin you can integrate the operations quite successfully, the club is placed between two population centers and is fed by the railway. Thus not only does it generate income from baseball but also from people who travel by train to watch the games. The shop sells merchandising in the Hanshin Department store which brings customers into the store and encourages them to spend. From this you can generate synergies.

Orix does not have this synergy - the baseball club does not generate income for the company's operations. So you have to ask, why did Orix buy the club? For profit generation? It's possible, but it is a business unconnected to Orix's core markets. You cannot really integrate the management competencies of the two organizations (though this has been tried - and not just by Orix - with predictably bad results).

This really leaves brand recognition. By owning a baseball club, the name Orix is instantly recognizable and gets lots of exposure. But just owning the club is enough. The costs of running the club can be written off as an advertising expense which has a huge knock on effect on your tax payments, but it doesn't need to do well. However, this is a benefit for the parent company, not the baseball club.

- And how many of the 24 million Kansai people have you actually started to talk to? Could it be your circle of acquaintances is relatively smaller than a majority of the population of the region?

Circles of acquaintances are all very well, but in any surveying you always take a sample. If I were to conduct a marketing survey I would not survey all 24 million people but a much smaller amount. From a small sample you can actually make very accurate predictions. But even this isn't necessary - just look at how many people attend Orix's games. If the rest cannot be bothered to make the effort, then the conclusion is that the impact of the club is not so great.

Furthermore, I actually do meet a lot of ex-Kintetsu and BlueWave fans who have not transferred their allegiance to Orix. This is disturbing from Orix's point of view as these people have stopped following baseball basically. Their reaction is much the same as Hanshin fans.

- Yes, and you haven't seen the posters, so again, how would you know what they looked like or where they are?

I have seen Orix posters and they are not that good. They are not that bad either, just ordinary. Photographs (except in very, very rare cases) are not actually the most effective medium to put on a poster. Simple bold pictorial or stylized designs in primary colors are much more effective. With such posters in enough numbers you can literally change the atmosphere of a place. Politics is actually where they make the most effective use of the poster.

- And considering you've never seen anything else they've done, how do you know for a fact that they haven't spent money on magazine, TV, or Internet marketing?

The only teams really making use of Internet marketing are Rakuten and SoftBank, with Lotte to a lesser extent. None of the other teams use the Internet effectively, and this includes Orix.

Remember, if Orix's marketing was effective I would have seen it. I am in Osaka enough times a year to be able to see what is going on. I see Tigers marketing, but not Orix marketing. This excludes the posters which, as I pointed out, are basic advertising.

Tell me, do Orix fans queue for hours to buy Orix lucky bags like Hanshin fans do for Hanshin lucky bags?

- Yes, and "massive" use of celebrities is massively expensive. And the dumping of old, tired players is something they need to do for good old fashioned baseball reasons. Any marketing spin-off is a bonus.

If Orix wants to increase their profile the spending has to be massive. Remember, they are thinking like a brand recognition device not like a company. I am not talking about half-measures, but that the thinking needs to be integrated.

For example, hiring a player - how will this affect our marketing? How can we exploit this new asset? And yes, a player is an asset to the club. And thinking in more detail rather than, "let's hire Kiyohara - he will bring the crowds in." Never mind that he doesn't play because he's washed up and the crowds stay away while Orix drops 250 million yen on him. How does he bring the crowds in? This needs to be planned out carefully.

- Well we could argue all day about this point, but I think you're wrong - it's the other way round. Baseball is first, fan base comes second. Don't worry about trying to refute that, though - it's a different approach and I wouldn't expect a marketing whiz to understand anyway.

We are talking about Orix's marketing here, not baseball. This is what you asked me to discuss - the marketing. I also think we can see Orix's fundamental problem. Baseball is first, fan base comes second. Who is going to pay the bills? A baseball club is a business, and it is very expensive. Where is your income going to come from? Both fans and baseball are equally important and should be treated as so. Treat fans as if they are second class and they won't come. You won't generate income and you won't be able to attract good players.

Certainly your parent company will continue to pay for you up to a point, but only up to a point. Look at what happened to Kintetsu. They couldn't bear the losses from the club in the end and had to sell out. Treat your fans well and they will stay loyal. They will also spend money on the club and your merchandising will rise. You only have a limited amount of income from seat sales, so this aspect is important. More fans means more sales of advertising or TV rights. You can also demand higher prices for your rights or from advertisers. This brings more income which means you can pay for better players and play better baseball. This brings more fans in and more income. Eventually you establish a brand which has massive locked in loyalty.

But this must be mapped out and must be planned in advance. You cannot get by on temporary spikes from pennants unless you already have a good base established. Orix really needs to think as if they are a new franchise not a merged one. They have to build fan loyalty and trust and cannot expect it to be given freely.

- And if you're right, that new area is ...? If it's basic to their survival I assume you have a few good locations in mind. That is, after all, what I asked you initially. What would you do - precisely? You still haven't answered that.

This is the first time the location has actually come up. Possible, locations for a new club were actually discussed in a different thread a year or two ago. IIRC potential locations mentioned were, Kumamoto and Miyzaki. These are unexploited markets which would welcome a new club. Look at the successes, Rakuten in Sendai and Nippon Ham in Hokkaido.

Pigskins15 may be right though. As I said, there are enough non-Tigers fans in Kansai for a second baseball team. But there were three teams during the Ichiro period. I cannot recall the figures, but the Tigers' attendance was much lower then and maybe BlueWave did surpass them. However, look at Orix now - it was temporary, and if they want to return to those days they do need to think about how they can improve their marketing.

Oh my!

I took one look at the length of the post, saw who had written it and so gave up!

This thread is about Orix for _____ sake!

Could we possibly have a new forum called Christopher's Rants, with an optional "Hide" button?

If you had read it you would have seen that the reply is about Orix and their marketing strategy.

Everyone contributed some good insights, but it seems as if we've worn this thread down. Maybe it's time to move on.

Apologies for that, but the point is that I didn't read it simply because you had written it. What does that tell you?

(Rhetorical question - please do not reply.)

That you're exercising your free will - so what?

I haven't posted in a while, but it's great to be back - seeing Christopher at his grandiloquent best. He seems to have expanded his horizons, too, and now knows everything about Orix as well as the Tigers. Impressive.

To get us back on topic, Orix just finished the big Osamu Hamanaka trade with Hanshin. It didn't turn out a straight 1 for 1 trade with Hanshin getting Yutaka Kawagoe. Orix ends up getting Hamanaka and lefty reliever Makoto Yoshino. Hanshin gets Keiichi Hirano and right-handed starter prospect Kenta Abe.

This gives Orix a popular and young possible future face of the franchise. Hamanaka has been plagued by right shoulder problems, but showed a brilliant bat when he was healthy. Yoshino hasn't been a usable reliever at the top level for a few years now. They're probably hoping some coaching and a new environment can turn him into a decent situational lefty.

Hanshin gets Hirano, who has a decent bat for a Japanese second baseman, though he was used in the outfield for the past couple years. He's a defensive loose cannon, because he throws his body around everywhere. This resulted in him crashing head first into a wall in 2006. I have to wonder about this pick up, because Hanshin already has too many quality outfielders and two decent second basemen. He's still young, so perhaps this is insurance for those second basemen failing or Akahoshi losing more speed in combination with Akamatsu not getting it done with the bat. I think his ability to defend multiple positions was what Hanshin really wanted.

Abe is a 23 year old starter who hasn't really seen any time on the top team.

First, on Nakamura: when Orix let him go, I thought he was going to become a civilian, seeing as how his performance had fallen off over time. It could actually be that his 2007 in Nagoya is a fluke. We'll see on that.

On Kiyohara, it makes no sense from a baseball perspective to hold on to him. However, in Japan, personal popularity is everything. And even if he won't get people to get out to the stadium (and Orix draws more than you would think), the media likes to write about him. More ink about Kiyohara is more ink about Orix. Kiyohara has major face and nobody else on the team really does.

Tani appeared to be on his way out as well, as he has had back troubles and his defense has deteriorated. I expect his numbers to slide next season.

The Hamanaka trade is nonsensical. Orix is merely trying to buy themselves some Hanshin mojo. Hirano will, unfortunately, become a higher functioning version of Taichiro Kamisaka, who was released last season, a fate he doesn't deserve. Trading Hirano for Hamanaka is ridiculous given that Hamanaka will have to play first base or left with that bad wing of his. But Collins will probably want to use left for a big foreign power threat (or Alex Ramirez, an RBI machine) and put Rhodes back as the DH. If they get Cabrera, that puts Rhodes in left and Alex in at DH. Kiyohara is relegated to pinch hit duty and so is Hamanaka. Guess who will always come off the bench first? It won't be Hamanaka since the fans want to see Kiyohara more.

Yoshino? He was good for one year and hasn't been of much use afterward. I hope he can surprise us.

Collins tried to develop the pitching staff last season and the rotation has some promised, but the pen is weak. However, while that aspect of the club is young, offensively, they are very old (except for Ohbiki) and you know what can happen there. All of a sudden, the entire team hits the wall. Lots'a luck you guys!

I agree with your post, though I think that there's a chance we could see Rhodes at left and Hamanaka at DH. I really don't think they signed him just so he can injure himself again in the outfield. Rhodes worked hard to get himself back in slugging condition last year, so there's a chance he could work to get himself back in outfielder shape. The only problem with that is, you can only fight father time for so long. I trust Collins' ability to figure out how to get the most runs out of his guys.

As for the Orix pitching, I think they made huge strides in Collins' first year. Remember how bad the Kintetsu and Orix pitching used to be? Collins was amazing with how he handled that bullpen. Shuuji Yoshida is over 40 years old, got released by the Hawks, and was a great situational lefty for the Buffaloes under Collins.

I think the success of all the young guys like Kaneko and Takagi is proof that Collins has a very good eye for baseball talent. It'll only get better in his second year, in my opinion.