Barry Bonds
Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB avg obp slg
SF 132 411 145 28 1 104 190 0.352 0.557 1.187
SF 124 348 138 27 1 66 213 0.397 0.625 1.048
Alex Rodriguez
Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB avg obp slg
Tex 140 546 186 30 1 74 80 0.341 0.426 0.807
Tex 140 539 173 24 1 82 93 0.322 0.422 0.823
These two guys were converted on the theory they would have missed the same percentage of games in Japan as they did in the majors. As always, there are no park adjustments here. I would think A-Rod especially would lose a good bit if we did park-adjust (say 3-5% across the board on the counted stats).
Jim Albright
2001 1.187 - (1 - 0.352) = 0.539 (bases - outs)/ab
2002 1.048 - (1 - 0.397) = 0.445 (bases - outs)/ab
for A-Rod:
2001 0.807 - (1 - 0.341) = 0.148 (bases - outs)/ab
2002 0.823 - (1 - 0.322) = 0.145 (bases - outs)/ab
Compared to the second case, nobody ever pitches to him. Replace walks with singles, we have 1.000 - 0 = 1.000. So Bonds will do a damage of 1 (bases - outs)/ab. Clearly, they should still pitch to him.
An obvious problem is that taking bases - outs is probably too simple minded. Perhaps we could take a*bases - b*outs, using a and b as weights corresponding to the importance we place and bases and outs respectively.
Another thing to note is that the above formula does not take a hitter's ability to take a walk into account. It assumes that all walks are caused by pitchers.
Finally, most hitters will produce a negative number. This just means most hitters are expected to produce more outs then bases per at-bat.
This is a site about Pro Yakyu (Japanese Baseball), not about who the next player to go over to MLB is. It's a community of Pro Yakyu fans who have come together to share their knowledge and opinions with the world. It's a place to follow teams and individuals playing baseball in Japan (and Asia), and to learn about Japanese (and Asian) culture through baseball.
It is my sincere hope that once you learn a bit about what we're about here that you will join the community of contributors.
Michael Westbay
(aka westbaystars)
Founder
Thanks!